Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on July 21, with over 4,000 stocks rising and a trading volume increase of 133.8 billion yuan, leading to a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index this year [1] - Key sectors such as building materials, coal, and oil saw substantial gains, with Energy ETFs (159930) rising over 1% for three consecutive days, and Oil and Gas Resource ETFs (159309) also increasing over 1% for four consecutive days [1] Group 2: Coal and Oil Sector Performance - Major coal and oil stocks saw significant increases, with companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal rising over 3%, while Meijin Energy and China United Coalbed Methane increased over 2% [3] - The top ten components of the Energy ETF (159930) included major players like China Petroleum and China Shenhua, with respective trading volumes of 757 million yuan and 968 million yuan [4] - The top ten components of the Oil and Gas Resource ETF (159309) also featured significant players, with China Petroleum and China Petrochemical leading in trading volumes [4] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - On July 18, government officials announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [5] - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized the need for coal companies to understand market changes and ensure compliance with long-term contracts to maintain market balance [5] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to resonate with the coal sector, potentially leading to valuation increases as the market stabilizes [6] Group 4: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain bullish due to seasonal demand, with supply constraints from safety regulations and stricter import controls [6] - In the medium to long term, coal prices are projected to gradually return to a "reasonable center," which would stabilize profitability for coal companies and reshape market perceptions of the coal sector [7] - The oil sector may face challenges related to overcapacity, necessitating a focus on controlling operating rates and project approvals [8]

Group 1 - Zhang Kun's funds under management reached 55.047 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, including four funds: E Fund Blue Chip Selection, E Fund Quality Selection, E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Holding, and E Fund Asia Selection [1] - In Q2 2025, significant portfolio changes included new positions in JD Health, increased holdings in SF Holding, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yum China, while reducing positions in Tencent Holdings, Yanghe Brewery, and Meituan [1] - The top ten holdings at the end of Q2 included Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, JD Health, SF Holding, and Yum China [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 Index rise by 1.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.34%, while the Hong Kong market experienced a 4.12% increase in the Hang Seng Index [2] - The real estate sector faced challenges, with new residential sales area and sales value declining by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, and real estate development investment down by 10.7% [2] - CPI showed negative growth for four consecutive months from February to May, indicating downward pressure on prices, while the stock market exhibited significant sector divergence [2] Group 3 - The company does not share the pessimistic outlook on domestic demand and economy, highlighting that per capita GDP still has room for growth compared to developed countries [3] - The company believes that the pessimistic expectations will eventually be broken, with a key indicator being the long-term bond yields aligning with economic growth prospects [3] - The company will continuously assess the competitiveness of its portfolio companies during economic downturns and their potential to strengthen their market position during recoveries [3]

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [8][29][30] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][30] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, impacting short-term crude oil and natural gas production capacity [29][30] Coal Industry - The market price for thermal coal has increased, with the average price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 637 RMB/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week, driven by increased downstream purchasing demand [11][12] - Coal inventory at major ports has decreased by 6.32% to 25.2 million tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12] - The demand for coal is supported by rising electricity consumption due to high summer temperatures, although cement demand is declining [11][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing price increases, with the price of Shanxi main coking coal rising by 6.67% to 1,440 RMB/ton [13][14] - Downstream steel mills are maintaining high production levels, leading to a positive outlook for coking coal prices as demand remains strong [13][14] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with expectations of further price increases due to rising costs and stable demand from steel producers [13][14] Natural Gas - Industrial natural gas production in China showed steady growth, with June output at 21.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15][16] - The average price of natural gas in the US has risen to $3.51 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous week [15][16] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and increased competition for supplies [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies [17][18] - The total capital expenditure for major oil companies in 2023 is projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally has decreased to 1,576, indicating a cautious approach to new investments in oil and gas exploration [18]

Core Viewpoint - E Fund's report indicates a stable stock position in its largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection, with adjustments in consumer and technology sectors, highlighting the attractiveness of undervalued stocks with substantial shareholder returns for long-term investors [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - E Fund Blue Chip Selection maintained a stable stock position in Q2, with adjustments made to the structure of consumer and technology sectors [1] - The fund continues to hold high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns, and strong competitiveness [1] Group 2: Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2, the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chip Selection include Tencent Holdings, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Alibaba-W, JD Health, Yum China, CNOOC, and SF Holding [1] - Compared to the end of Q1, JD Health and SF Holding entered the top ten holdings, while Yanghe Brewery and Meituan-W exited [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn due to falling oil prices, with expectations for recovery in the mid to downstream sectors in the future [1]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in crude oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to report lower profits in Q2 2025 due to the impact of declining oil prices and inventory losses [5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In Q2 2025, Brent crude oil averaged $66.7 per barrel, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [5][6]. - Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton for gasoline and 150 CNY/ton for diesel [5]. Price Spread Analysis - The report notes that the price spreads for styrene, PX-naphtha, ethylene-naphtha, and crude oil catalytic cracking widened, while spreads for propane-propylene, butyl acrylate, and PTA-PX narrowed in Q2 2025 [5][7]. - The average price spread for ethylene from ethane was $567/ton, narrowing by $43/ton quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Company Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report the following net profits for Q2 2025: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): 40 billion CNY (YoY -7%, QoQ -15%) - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): 30 billion CNY (YoY -25%, QoQ -18%) - Sinopec: 6 billion CNY (YoY -65%, QoQ -55%) - CNOOC Services: 1.2 billion CNY (YoY +25%, QoQ +35%) - Offshore Oil Engineering: 600 million CNY (YoY -17%, QoQ +11%) [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester recovery, recommending attention to leading companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5]. - It also highlights potential improvements in refining companies' costs and competitive positioning, recommending companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5]. - The report indicates that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's advancements in deep-sea oil and gas exploration, emphasizing the role of intelligent systems and underwater robots in enhancing production efficiency and safety in extreme conditions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Technological Advancements - The "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project has been fully operational, increasing the maximum daily production capacity of the super-deepwater gas field to over 15 million cubic meters, making it the largest offshore oil and gas field in China [1]. - Intelligent systems are becoming the "central nervous system" for deep-sea oil and gas resource development, allowing for remote operation and control during extreme weather conditions, thus preventing production losses [3][4]. - The West River 24-7 platform in the South China Sea has achieved significant advancements in intelligent oil extraction, equipment maintenance, and safety, contributing to a projected over-fulfillment of oil and gas production targets in the first half of 2024 [4]. Group 2: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - The implementation of AI in oil production is estimated to reduce costs by approximately $7 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), representing a cost reduction of about 17.5% [4]. - The use of underwater robots, such as the "FCV4000," allows for complex operations in deep-sea environments, significantly lowering the costs associated with oil and gas development [6][7]. - The "Qilin Arm," a lightweight underwater robot, is expected to halve the procurement and maintenance costs in its operational segments, saving millions annually [7]. Group 3: Global Positioning and Market Expansion - China's marine engineering sector has achieved several "Asia firsts," including the world's first 100,000-ton semi-submersible production and storage platform, showcasing its capabilities in deep-sea equipment manufacturing [9]. - The country is beginning to export its "Chinese solutions" to global markets, with recent deliveries of deep-water suction anchors for major international projects, indicating a growing recognition of China's technological advancements [9][10]. - The global demand for underwater robots is increasing, driven by the need for efficient marine resource development, with China positioned as one of the fastest-growing markets in this sector [7][9].

Group 1 - The "Deep Sea No. 1" project has achieved a maximum daily production capacity of over 15 million cubic meters, making it China's largest offshore oil and gas field [1] - 70% of global oil and gas resources are located in the ocean, with 44% in deep and ultra-deep water areas [1] - China is leveraging robotics and intelligent technology to reshape the cost curve and safety boundaries of offshore oil and gas resource development [1] Group 2 - Intelligent systems are becoming the central nervous system for deep-sea oil and gas resource development, allowing for remote operation during extreme weather [2] - The "Deep Sea No. 1" underwater production system can be remotely controlled to avoid production losses during typhoons [2] - Safety measures include wearable devices for workers that monitor health metrics and high-definition cameras for real-time hazard detection [2] Group 3 - The West River 24-7 platform in the South China Sea has made significant advancements in intelligent oil extraction and operational safety [3] - AI is projected to reduce production costs by approximately $7 per barrel of oil equivalent, representing a 17.5% decrease [3] Group 4 - The "FCV4000" underwater robot can operate at depths of 4,000 meters, performing complex tasks in harsh deep-sea conditions [4] - The robot is designed with a high-strength titanium alloy shell and can execute precise operations using advanced intelligent control systems [4] Group 5 - Underwater robots are crucial for offshore oil and gas exploration and maintenance, significantly reducing operational costs [5] - The "Qilin Arm," a lightweight underwater robotic arm, can cut procurement and maintenance costs by over 50% annually [5] Group 6 - China has made significant advancements in marine engineering, achieving multiple "Asia First" milestones in deep-water platforms and equipment [6] - Chinese marine equipment manufacturing capabilities are gaining international recognition, with recent deliveries for global deep-water projects [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline due to concerns over increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. and OPEC+ production increases, with Brent and WTI prices at $69.28 and $66.05 per barrel respectively as of July 18, 2025 [2][7] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a positive performance, with the sector rising by 1.13% compared to the 1.09% increase in the CSI 300 index [8][11] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 162.26% since 2022, while the refining and trading sector has risen by 28.99% [11] Oil Price Review - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, down $1.08 (-1.53%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $66.05 per barrel, down $2.40 (-3.51%) [23] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $0.55 (+0.85%) to $64.96 per barrel [23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 384, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained at 134 [30] U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [43] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 422, down by 2 rigs [43] - The number of hydraulic fracturing fleets in the U.S. was 174, down by 6 fleets [43] U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.849 million barrels per day, down by 157,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.90%, down 0.8 percentage points [56] U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 825 million barrels, a decrease of 4.159 million barrels (-0.50%) from the previous week [68] - Strategic oil inventory was 403 million barrels, down by 300,000 barrels (-0.07%) [68] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 422 million barrels, down by 3.859 million barrels (-0.91%) [68] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]