Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q3, indicating a mixed performance amid fluctuating oil prices and production challenges [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 102 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 100.9 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 104.9 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.4 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter; non-recurring net profit was 31.6 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 578 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, with oil production at 445 million barrels (up 5.4%) and natural gas production at 7.775 billion cubic feet (up 11.6%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, net oil and gas production was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, with oil production at 149 million barrels (down 1.1%) and natural gas production at 2.613 billion cubic feet (down 0.7%) [2]. - The average realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a Brent crude discount of $1.55 per barrel, indicating a narrowing discount compared to previous periods [2]. Cost Management - The company reported a barrel of oil equivalent cost of $27.35 in the first three quarters, down $0.79 year-on-year, while Q3 cost was approximately $28.16, up $1.31 quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company maintained a period expense ratio of 3.12% in the first three quarters, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the USD exchange rate [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 141.7 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with Q3 cash flow at 62.6 billion yuan, up 21% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 86 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with exploration, development, and production expenditures showing mixed trends [3]. - The company plans capital expenditure of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, expecting stable cash flow to support dividend levels [3]. - Due to declining oil price expectations, the company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected profits of 129.8 billion, 134.4 billion, and 138.1 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 10X, 10X, and 9X respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance with a significant increase in cash flow quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report highlights a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in revenue and 12.6% in net profit [6] - The company is expected to maintain a good dividend payout ratio due to stable cash flow and capital expenditure [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 421.87 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 129.79 billion for 2025, reflecting a decline of 5.9% year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.73 yuan, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 15.9% [5] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 50.6% for 2025, down from 52.2% in 2024 [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 141.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 6% [6] Operational Performance - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 578 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [6] - The average realized oil price in Q3 2025 was 66.62 USD per barrel, with a narrowing discount compared to Brent crude [6] - The company’s oil and gas production is expected to continue increasing, driven by new projects and improved operational efficiency [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies in China are facing significant profit declines due to the ongoing drop in international oil prices, prompting a strategic shift towards comprehensive energy services including oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, China Petroleum, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [2]. - The combined net profit decrease exceeded 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, averaging a loss of approximately 3.8 billion yuan per day [2]. - The average selling price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while China National Offshore Oil's average selling price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, impacting their oil and gas revenue [2][3]. Operational Efficiency - Despite the profit declines, the reduction in net profit for China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil was less severe than the drop in oil prices, attributed to effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [3]. - China National Offshore Oil's net production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [3]. Natural Gas Segment - The natural gas segment showed positive growth, with China National Offshore Oil's natural gas production increasing by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing overall production growth [3]. - The average price of natural gas rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, leading to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [3]. Downstream Business Impact - The downstream oil product sales and refining chemical businesses of China Petroleum and China Sinopec are facing challenges due to declining market demand and falling prices of key petroleum and petrochemical products [3][4]. Chemical Business Challenges - The chemical business is experiencing reduced profit margins due to the continuous release of new production capacity, with China Petroleum's chemical operations reporting a profit of 1.787 billion yuan, halving year-on-year, while China Sinopec's chemical sector faced a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% [4]. Strategic Shift Towards New Energy - In response to the pressures from new energy on traditional markets, the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are accelerating their non-oil business development [5]. - China Sinopec plans to focus on stabilizing oil, expanding gas, promoting hydrogen, increasing electricity, and strengthening services, aiming to transform into a comprehensive energy service provider [5]. - China Petroleum's president emphasized the construction of integrated energy stations and the integration of oil and gas exploration with new energy development [5].

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the cross-regional gas testing operation for the "Green Energy Chuan" LNG carrier marks a significant achievement in China's LNG shipping capabilities and energy infrastructure development [1][5]. Group 1: Company Achievements - The "Green Energy Chuan" is China's fifth self-built fifth-generation "Changheng series" LNG carrier, with a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters, making it one of the mainstream large transport vessels globally [3]. - The gas testing operation is a critical quality inspection procedure for newly constructed LNG vessels, ensuring that the cargo system can meet low-temperature loading conditions [3][5]. - The successful gas testing operation is the first of its kind in China, demonstrating the country's advanced capabilities in energy infrastructure and high-end equipment manufacturing [5][6]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - The gas testing faced multiple challenges, including coordination among numerous participants and agencies, as well as a long navigation distance, crossing maritime jurisdictions from Shanghai to Lianyungang [6]. - Comprehensive safety measures were implemented to ensure the safe entry and operation of the vessel in port, including detailed risk assessments and emergency response plans [6]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The successful gas testing operation establishes a complete maritime debugging route for newly constructed LNG vessels from Shanghai to Binhai, enhancing the operational efficiency of domestic LNG shipping [6]. - The operation's success is expected to diversify trade business at the China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) Yancheng "Green Energy Port," providing a replicable model for future vessels and strengthening the resilience of China's clean energy supply chain [6].

Group 1 - Minsheng Securities issued a report on October 31, giving China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) a "recommended" rating [1] - The report highlights that exchange rate losses impacted period expenses, leading to a quarter-on-quarter profit decline in Q3 2025 [1] - Oil and gas production showed steady year-on-year growth, indicating operational stability [1] - Oil prices have rebounded quarter-on-quarter, and cost control measures are reported to be effective [1] - The company has continued to focus on increasing reserves and production, with four new projects launched in Q3 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with target prices set at RMB 33.41 and HKD 27.04 respectively [2][6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 312.5 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 102 billion, down 13% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% and a year-on-year decline of 4% [2]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB and lower-than-expected oil production due to typhoons and asset sales in the Gulf of Mexico [2]. - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations, with effective cost reduction and quality improvement measures [2]. Revenue and Production - The company's oil and gas net production reached 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with oil liquid and gas production growing by 5.4% and 11.6% respectively [3]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 68.2 per barrel in Q3, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was USD 66.2 per barrel, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 52.2%, with Q3 gross margin at 49.8% [3]. Market Conditions - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to the end of the peak season and increased supply from OPEC+, with WTI and Brent crude prices reported at USD 60.48 and USD 64.92 per barrel respectively [4]. - The report predicts that global oil supply will face excess pressure, particularly from the Middle East, starting in Q4 2025 [4]. Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company completed capital expenditures of RMB 86 billion in the first three quarters, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with significant progress in key projects [5]. - New discoveries and projects have been successfully evaluated and put into production, contributing to future growth [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 128 billion, RMB 122.9 billion, and RMB 129.6 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 3.3%, 2.6%, and 1.9% from previous estimates [6]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x for 2026, with target prices reflecting the company's high oil production ratio and sensitivity to oil price changes [6].

Group 1 - The oil and gas extraction sector increased by 0.2% compared to the previous trading day, with Intercontinental Oil leading the gains [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] - The main capital flow into the oil and gas extraction sector was a net inflow of 57.49 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 37.18 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Among individual stocks, China National Offshore Oil Corporation saw a net inflow of 89.82 million yuan from main capital, but experienced net outflows from both retail and speculative capital [2] - Intercontinental Oil had a net outflow of 28.02 million yuan from main capital, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 25.69 million yuan [2] - The stock performance varied, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing a net inflow of 8.34% from main capital, while *ST New潮 had a significant net outflow of 7.92% from main capital [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit was 32.4 billion, which met expectations, while revenue reached 104.9 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, net profit decreased by 12.16% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas production in Q3 2025 was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with oil and gas production increasing by 7.1% and 10.4% respectively [2]. - The cost per barrel of oil for Q1-Q3 2025 was $27.35, a decrease of $0.79 year-on-year, but there was a slight increase of $1.31 per barrel in Q3 due to production declines caused by typhoons [3]. - The realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a discount of $1.6 compared to Brent, showing a year-on-year narrowing of the discount but a slight widening compared to the previous quarter. The realized natural gas price remained stable at 1.96 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 was 171.7 billion, down 6% year-on-year, while capital expenditure was 86 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with a full-year capital expenditure plan of 125-135 billion [5]. Financial Data Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.3 billion, 133.1 billion, and 135.8 billion respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 and 6.9 times based on the stock price as of October 30, 2025. The dividend yield is projected at 4.5% and 6.6% for 2025 [5]. - The financial data for the years 2023 to 2027 shows a projected revenue of 404.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -3.72%. The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 278.6 billion, with a net profit of 128.3 billion [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.70 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 10.01 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.73 [6].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中国海油（600938.SH） 中国海洋石油（0883.HK） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] Q3 受台风影响利润环比下滑，业绩符合预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]10 月 30 日晚，中国海油发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 前三季度，公司实现营收 3125.03 亿元，同比-4.15%；实现归母净利润 1019.71 亿元，同比-12.59%；扣非后归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is entering a downward cycle due to high costs and weak supply-demand dynamics, despite maintaining high capital expenditure and supply growth since the peak in 2021. However, there are "long-termist" companies capable of navigating through the cycle, providing substantial returns to investors through growth and dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced high capital expenditure and significant supply growth since the peak in 2021, but demand recovery remains relatively weak, leading to a high-cost and weak supply-demand environment [1]. - Long-termist companies in the chemical sector are characterized by strong shareholder backgrounds, excellent management capabilities, reasonable industry chain layouts, continuous R&D investment, and a strong sense of social responsibility, enabling them to achieve stable growth and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Sector - The "three major oil companies" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to maintain high capital expenditure and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [3]. - The domestic oil service companies are benefiting from high upstream capital expenditure, with improved operational quality and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]. Group 3: Refining and Chemical Fiber Industry - The refining and chemical fiber industry is anticipated to recover, with the refining expansion nearing completion and supply-demand dynamics expected to improve, leading to high-quality development in the sector [4]. - The polyester sector is seeing limited new capacity, with structural optimization accelerating, which is expected to enhance the market share and competitiveness of leading companies [4]. Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical industry is projected to improve profitability due to a gradual easing of coal supply and demand, alongside a decline in coal prices. The transition towards modern coal chemical processes is seen as essential for traditional coal enterprises [5]. - The average prices for various coal types have decreased, with main coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite prices showing declines of -10.5%, -2.0%, and -16.0% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the upstream oil and gas sector and oil service companies, including China National Petroleum (601857.SH), Sinopec (600028.SH), CNOOC (600938.SH), and others [6]. - For the refining and chemical fiber sector, companies like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) are recommended due to their potential benefits from industry optimization and upgrades [7]. - In the coal chemical sector, companies such as Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) are highlighted for their expected improvement in profitability [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring cyclical leading companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) and Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) as demand recovers and supply-demand dynamics improve [7].