Core Viewpoints - The transportation industry is experiencing a decline in passenger flight volumes following the National Day holiday, with overall and domestic flight volumes down by 0.6% week-on-week, but still above 2019 levels [1][3] - The implementation of reciprocal port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [2] Shipping Industry - The upcoming US port fee measures will take effect on October 14, prompting China to respond with special port fees for US vessels [2] - Different shipping segments will experience varying impacts, with container shipping likely facing the least disruption, while oil and dry bulk shipping will be more significantly affected [2] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial policy confusion, but major container shipping companies have committed to not raising prices to maintain competitiveness [2] - Oil shipping rates are expected to perform strongly in the short to medium term due to seasonal effects and recent geopolitical developments [2] Aviation Industry - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased post-holiday, but remain above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [3] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3] - The domestic aviation market is expected to continue improving in supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices likely stabilizing [3][4] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with most regions now participating in this trend [4] - The industry is expected to see improved profitability in the fourth quarter due to reduced competition and better regulatory balance [4] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like SF Express and the Tongda system, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing policy changes [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a slowdown in holiday shipments and a decline in crude oil shipping rates, while container shipping rates for long-distance routes have rebounded [3][14] - Shenzhen has introduced detailed policies to support low-altitude economic development, and international flight routes have resumed during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3][16] - China's express delivery volume reached 150 billion packages ahead of schedule, with strategic cooperation agreements signed between YTO Express and Huizhou [3][23] Summary by Sections Industry Hotspot Events - Holiday shipments have slowed, leading to a drop in crude oil shipping rates, while container shipping rates for long-distance routes have rebounded. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) was reported at 1407.48 points, down 26.2% from September 25 [3][14] - Shenzhen's transportation bureau released measures to support low-altitude economic development, effective from October 9, 2025, to December 31, 2026. During the holiday, civil aviation transported 19.138 million passengers, with an average of 2.392 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][16][18] - As of October 11, 2025, China's express delivery volume surpassed 150 billion packages, achieving this goal 37 days ahead of schedule compared to 2024. A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Huizhou government and YTO Express [3][23][24] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 4621.00 points, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% month-on-month [28] - In September 2025, domestic cargo flights increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 15.86% year-on-year [33] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1160.42 points, up 4.12% week-on-week but down 43.74% year-on-year [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing industrial product export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It also highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - The report advises attention to the road and rail sector, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Anhui Expressway [4][5]

这个十一，坐飞机的和不坐飞机的都沉默了。 作为2025年最后一个假期、也是全年最长节假日，长达八天的"超级黄金周"极大的激发了旅行需求。但在选择哪一种出行方式上，却让人犯了难。 2023年和2024年国庆，机票价格大跳水，"没出发就已亏了数千元"让不少旅客心有余悸。但今年，机票价格却"涨疯了"。 根据航班管家数据，截至9月28日，2025年国庆假期预售机票价格，即裸票价为804元，同比2024年736元上涨9.2%。 | 截至9月28日均价 | 指标 | | | VS同周期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2019年 | 裸票价 817 | 2024年 736 | 2025年 804 | 25VS24 9.2% | 25VS19 -1.6% 数据来源: 航班管家DAST | | 2025年国庆假期预售机票价格监测及同比 | | | | | | 现实是，今年国庆黄金周国内机票尽管出现上涨，但远没有到盈亏平衡点，民航业仍困在了以价换量、旺丁不旺财的收益困境。 不过，在这之中也有一个例外——春秋航空(601021.SH)，这家以"低票价、高效率"著称的廉航，却 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The shipping and shipbuilding industry is poised for historical opportunities due to China's countermeasures against the U.S. shipping fees, which may lead to non-linear price increases in the short term and a reduction in available vessels in the medium term [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for a surge in shipbuilding orders if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted from tariffs, and the implications of U.S.-China negotiations on the industry [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points, with the road freight sector showing the highest increase of 3.04% [4][5] - Shipping data indicates that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China remained stable, while the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 4.12% [4][5] 2. Sub-industry Weekly Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from China's recent regulatory changes, which impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, potentially leading to increased operational costs for U.S. shipping companies [20][21] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding, as they may benefit from these developments [19] 3. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including China Shipping (603167.SH) with a projected dividend yield of 10.92% and Daqin Railway (601006.SH) with a yield of 3.75% [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend yields as a factor for investment decisions in the transportation sector [17] 4. ETF Size Changes - The report provides data on the changes in the size of various ETFs related to the transportation sector, indicating a general trend of growth in assets under management [13][14] 5. Potential Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the shipping sector, particularly oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, may present significant investment opportunities due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes [19][20] - Companies such as China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of these market dynamics [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights a significant increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a total of 2.433 billion trips made, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [1] Group 1: Travel Volume and Trends - The total cross-regional travel volume during the eight-day holiday reached 2.433 billion trips, with an average daily increase of 6.3% year-on-year and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [1] - The breakdown of travel modes shows that railway, road, civil aviation, and water transport accounted for 154 million, 2.248 billion, 19.14 million, and 11.66 million trips respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.6%, 6.6%, 3.3%, and 4.1% [1] - Self-driving trips remained the dominant mode of travel, with an average of 243 million trips per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and accounting for approximately 80% of total travel volume [1] Group 2: Aviation Performance - Despite a high base from the previous year, civil aviation passenger flow still saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3% during the holiday, with an average daily passenger flow of 1.69 million flights, marking a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year and a 15.4% increase compared to 2019 [2] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class during the holiday was 849 yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a minor decrease of 1.4% compared to 2019 [3] Group 3: Travel Behavior and Preferences - There was a notable increase in long-distance travel orders, with domestic long-distance travel orders rising by 3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - International travel saw a significant uptick, with outbound ticket bookings for popular destinations increasing by over 30% year-on-year, particularly in regions like Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [4] Group 4: Tourism Revenue and Consumer Spending - Domestic tourism during the holiday reached 888 million trips, with total spending amounting to 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [5] - The average tourism expenditure per person was 911.1 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year but recovering to 97.4% of the level seen in 2019 [5] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to enter a travel off-season, but there may be a recovery in business travel demand compared to the previous year [6] - The report suggests that if travel demand continues to grow steadily, it could lead to a recovery in airline revenues, with potential for significant profit growth for airlines like Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and others [6]

Group 1 - The company announced an adjustment to the maximum repurchase price of its shares after the distribution of dividends for the first half of 2025, effective from October 10, 2025 [1] - The board of directors approved a share repurchase plan on August 27, 2025, with a maximum repurchase price set at 65 RMB per share and a total repurchase fund ranging from 300 million to 500 million RMB [2] - The adjustment in the repurchase price was necessary due to the company's mid-term dividend distribution, which required recalculating the maximum repurchase price [3] Group 2 - The new maximum repurchase price was adjusted from 65 RMB to 64.57 RMB per share, starting from October 17, 2025, with an estimated cash dividend of approximately 0.43 RMB per share [4] - Based on the lower limit of the repurchase fund (300 million RMB), the estimated number of shares to be repurchased is about 4.6461 million shares, representing approximately 0.47% of the total share capital; at the upper limit (500 million RMB), it is about 7.7435 million shares, or approximately 0.79% of the total share capital [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" [2]. Core Insights - The domestic aviation market has shown strong performance during the National Day holiday, with passenger transport volume averaging approximately 2.15 million people per day, a year-on-year increase of 31% compared to 2019 and 4% compared to 2024 [1]. - The average ticket price (including fuel) has increased by 7% compared to 2019 and 3% compared to 2024, indicating a positive trend in pricing despite some regional weather disruptions [1]. - The industry is expected to enter a "golden era" over the next 5-10 years, driven by supply chain improvements and increasing demand, with major airlines likely to continue reporting strong earnings [1]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - Daily average domestic passenger transport volume: 2.15 million, +31% YoY vs. 2019, +4% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. - Daily average domestic flight volume: 14,500 flights, +19% YoY vs. 2019, +2% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. - International passenger transport volume: 380,000, -13% YoY vs. 2019, +11% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. Market Perception - There are misconceptions regarding the recovery of Boeing and Airbus production capacity, which may not reverse the aging trend of aircraft [1]. - Current low domestic ticket prices do not necessarily correlate with poor airline profitability, as many airlines have seen international market recovery exceeding pre-pandemic levels [1]. Future Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to experience significant improvements in profitability, with a shift from losses to profitability anticipated in the coming years [1]. - The supply chain issues leading to aircraft shortages are projected to persist for 5-10 years, creating a favorable environment for airlines [1]. Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on the aviation sector is recommended, with specific attention to airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, among others [1][2].

证券代码：601021 证券简称：春秋航空 公告编号：2025-053 春秋航空股份有限公司 关于实施 2025 年半年度权益分派后调整回购股份价格上限的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、股份回购基本情况 春秋航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 27 日召开第五届 董事会第十二次会议，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的议 案》（以下简称"本次回购方案"），同意公司拟使用自有资金和自筹资金通过上 海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易方式回购公司已发行的部分人民币普通股股 票，并将回购股份全部用于员工持股计划，回购价格不超过 65 元/股（含），回购 资金总额不低于人民币 30,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 50,000 万元（含），回 购期限自公司董事会审议通过本次回购方案之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容详见 公司于 2025 年 8 月 29 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）上披露的《春 秋航空关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股 ...

北京市嘉源律师事务所 关于春秋航空股份有限公司 差异化分红事项之 专项法律意见书 西城区复兴门内大街 158 号远洋大厦 4 楼 中国·北京 北京 BEIJING·上海 SHANGHAI·深圳 SHENZHEN·香港 HONGKONG·广州 GUANGZHOU·西安 XI`AN 致：春秋航空股份有限公司 北京市嘉源律师事务所 关于春秋航空股份有限公司 差异化分红事项之 专项法律意见书 嘉源(2025)-05-328 北京市嘉源律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受春秋航空股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"或"春秋航空"）委托，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简 称"《公司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、《上海证 券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》（以下简称"《回购股份指 引》"）等相关法律、法规、规范性文件及《春秋航空股份有限公司章程》的规定， 按照律师行业公认的业务标准、道德规范和勤勉尽责精神出具。 为出具本法律意见书之目的，本所经办律师依照现行有效的法律法规以及中 国证券监督管理委员会（以下称"中国证监会"）相关规章、规范性文件的要求 和规定，对与本次差异化分红 ...