该行预期中国航空业政策顺风持续。假设政策具持续性，该行预期2026年国内航线票价将同比升1%至 3%，国内旅客量同比增长3%至4%，国际旅客量亦将维持双位数增长。 该行对中国航空业持建设性看法; 予春秋航空(601021.SH)"买入"评级，目标价61.3元人民币;南方航空 (600029.SH)A股及中国南方航空股份(01055) H股则获"中性"评级，目标价分别为6.5元人民币及4.1港 元。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，过去一年对中国航空业经历转型，主要受惠于根据地、航权及航 班时刻等政策调整，例如在消费降级、运力过剩及高铁竞争下，行业的国内运力投放有序，令票价逐步 同比上调。另外，受补贴政策改革影响，航空公司凭借其宽体机队优势，大幅扩展国际航点及航班频 次。基于定价及运力优势，中国航空公司正逐步建立相对于全球同行的竞争优势。 ...

Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see profit recovery driven by favorable exchange rates and declining international oil prices, which will alleviate fuel cost pressures for airlines. Structural growth in air travel demand is anticipated due to economic growth, with key recommendations including Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines [4][19][22]. - The highway industry in China has entered a mature phase, with future trends expected to include renovation and expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and business diversification. A key recommendation is Zhongyuan Expressway [4][58]. - The shipping industry is transitioning towards green methanol as a mainstream choice for zero-emission energy, with significant growth in renewable methanol projects expected by 2030. Recommended companies include CIMC Enric and COSCO Shipping International [4][89]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is witnessing structural growth due to increased transportation distances for iron ore imports and strong demand for alumina imports. Recommended companies include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Haitong Development [4]. Aviation Sector - The recovery in airline profits is supported by a favorable exchange rate and lower oil prices, with the potential for ticket prices to rise as demand increases [4][22]. - Domestic airlines are facing limited capacity expansion due to engine supply issues, while the demand for air travel is expected to grow structurally [25][31]. - The average fuel price decline is projected to reduce operational costs significantly for airlines, enhancing profitability [24][22]. - The domestic air travel market is expected to grow as the per capita flight frequency in China remains lower than the global average, indicating room for growth [34][35]. Highway Sector - The highway industry is projected to see a slowdown in construction investment, with new regulations potentially extending toll periods for aging highways [4][64]. - The total length of highways in China has surpassed that of the United States, with ongoing investments expected to enhance the network further [63][58]. - The introduction of new toll regulations may provide a framework for sustainable development in the highway sector [67][68]. Shipping Sector - The global shipping industry is increasingly adopting green methanol technology, with a significant number of renewable methanol projects expected to come online by 2030 [4][89]. - The demand for dry bulk shipping is expected to grow due to changes in iron ore import sources and increased distances, presenting opportunities for shipping companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' stock price has shown a slight increase, with a current trading price of 59.50 CNY per share, reflecting a stable performance in the market despite some fluctuations in capital flow [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 12, Spring Airlines' stock increased by 2.02%, with a total market capitalization of 58.211 billion CNY [1] - The stock has remained flat year-to-date, with a 0.49% increase over the last five trading days, a 13.03% increase over the last 20 days, and a 12.92% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 16.773 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.98% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.336 billion CNY, which reflects a decrease of 10.32% compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Spring Airlines reached 30,200, an increase of 43.53% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 30.33% to 32,433 shares [2] Group 4: Dividend and Institutional Holdings - Since its A-share listing, Spring Airlines has distributed a total of 2.83 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.899 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 21.9475 million shares, a decrease of 765,500 shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1 - Spring Airlines experienced a decline of 1.87% in stock price on January 9, with a trading volume of 281 million yuan [1] - The financing data for January 9 shows that Spring Airlines had a financing purchase amount of 21.66 million yuan and a net financing purchase of 2.99 million yuan, with a total financing and securities balance of 339 million yuan [1] - The current financing balance of Spring Airlines is 332 million yuan, accounting for 0.58% of the circulating market value, which is below the 20th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low position [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Spring Airlines increased by 43.53% to 30,200, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 30.33% to 32,433 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Spring Airlines reported an operating income of 16.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.32% to 2.34 billion yuan [2] - Since its A-share listing, Spring Airlines has distributed a total of 2.83 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.90 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2]

航班号为9C6791/9C6792。 2月3日起， 春秋航空新增 南昌⇌长春往返航班， 东方航空新增 南昌⇌青岛往返航班， 航班号为MU6143/MU6144。 记者从江西机场集团获悉， 2月2日起， 9C6792航班时刻为 南昌18:20 21:20长春。 南昌⇌青岛往返航班， 班期为每周一/二/三/四/五/六/日， 资料图 南昌⇌长春往返航班， 班期为每周一/三/五/日， 9C6791航班时刻为 长春22:10 01:30南昌； 来源：洪观新闻、江西机场集团 编辑：焦俊杰 MU6143航班时刻为 南昌07:05 08:40青岛； MU6144航班时刻为 青岛09:40 11:40南昌。 （航班时刻如有变动请以实时官网查询为准） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant outflow of main capital from various stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with 387 stocks experiencing net outflows for five consecutive days or more, indicating potential investment risks in these companies [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Main Capital Outflow Statistics - The stock with the longest continuous net outflow is Dameng Data, with 23 days of outflows [1]. - Daqin Railway follows with 20 days of net outflows, totaling 2.711 billion yuan [1]. - The total net outflow for Daqin Railway over 20 days is the highest at 2.711 billion yuan, while Xiechuang Data has a net outflow of 1.914 billion yuan over five days [1][2]. Group 2: Stocks with Significant Outflows - The top stocks by net outflow duration include: - Daqin Railway: 20 days, 2.711 billion yuan, 18.68% of trading volume, -6.22% cumulative change [1]. - Dameng Data: 23 days, 0.503 billion yuan, 7.58% of trading volume, 14.15% cumulative change [2]. - Haima Automobile: 12 days, 1.626 billion yuan, 8.26% of trading volume, -18.59% cumulative change [1]. Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Other stocks with notable outflows include: - Wuzhou Xinchun: 5 days, 1.574 billion yuan, 5.24% of trading volume, 11.62% cumulative change [1]. - Dongshan Precision: 6 days, 1.512 billion yuan, 6.91% of trading volume, -6.80% cumulative change [1]. - Shengtai Electronics: 10 days, 1.377 billion yuan, 8.47% of trading volume, -8.71% cumulative change [1].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.19% on January 9, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 408 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 377 million yuan [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.98, down 3.24%, with a trading volume of 1.3034 million shares and a transaction value of 778 million yuan [2] - Other notable declines included Spring Airlines (601021) down 1.87% and China National Airlines (601111) down 1.64% [2] - The highest trading volume was recorded for Hainan Airlines (600221) with 4.4577 million shares traded, despite a decline of 10.85% in net inflow from major funds [3] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Hainan Airlines with a net outflow of 83.62 million yuan, and Spring Airlines with a net outflow of 28.47 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a positive net inflow in several stocks, with Hainan Airlines seeing a retail net inflow of 64.82 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.10% and a total market capitalization of 56.919 billion yuan. The company has shown mixed performance in terms of stock price changes over different time frames [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 9, Spring Airlines' stock price was 58.18 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 38.2042 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.07% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 2.22%, while it has increased by 8.95% over the past 20 days and 9.26% over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 16.773 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.98%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.32% to 2.336 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.83 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.899 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 30,200, marking a rise of 43.53%. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 30.33% to 32,433 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder with 21.9475 million shares, a decrease of 765,500 shares from the previous period [3].

Core Insights - China's aviation population has surpassed 500 million, making it the world's largest aviation population country, with fixed asset investment in civil aviation reaching 630 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The growth in aviation population is supported by the steady expansion of the aviation industry's transport scale and accelerated infrastructure development, alongside measures to boost domestic demand and consumption [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - In 2025, China's civil aviation industry achieved a total transport turnover of 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers and a passenger transport volume of 770 million, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 5.5% respectively [2] - The international flight recovery reached over 90% of 2019 levels, with international passenger transport volume increasing by 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The civil aviation industry aims to achieve a transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers and a passenger transport volume of 810 million in 2026, driven by macroeconomic development and policies to expand domestic demand [2] Group 2: Capacity and Operational Efficiency - The passenger load factor in 2025 reached 85.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in the passenger market [3] - Analysts predict that the load factor will continue to rise in 2026, suggesting potential for high price elasticity due to elevated load factors [3] - In 2025, the civil aviation industry reported a profit of 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting improved operational efficiency [4] Group 3: Route Expansion and Fleet Development - In 2025, significant route expansions were noted, including the resumption of regular flights between China and India and the launch of the longest single-route flight from Shanghai to Buenos Aires [4] - Airlines are actively opening new routes and increasing flight frequencies to enhance travel convenience, with Spring Airlines planning to open and restore several international and domestic routes in 2026 [4] - Major airlines have announced plans to purchase a total of 118 Airbus A320 aircraft, with a catalog price exceeding 18.1 billion USD, scheduled for delivery starting in 2028 [6] Group 4: Innovative Service Models - Airlines are exploring "Aviation+" business models, integrating services such as travel, culture, and education to enhance customer experience and stimulate consumption [7] - China Eastern Airlines plans to invest over 100 million yuan in aviation consumption vouchers in 2026 to promote travel and tourism consumption [7] - The average flight distance for domestic routes increased to 1,262 kilometers in 2025, indicating a shift towards longer-distance travel and a focus on underdeveloped markets [7][8] Group 5: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The demand for long-distance international routes is growing faster than domestic routes, indicating a structural improvement in overall aviation demand [8] - Airlines are leveraging local tourism resources to create unique travel experiences, contributing to local economic growth [8] - The recovery in business travel sentiment is expected to further drive aviation demand, supported by enhanced service quality and expanded consumer bases [8]