Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 册 寂寞诗 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzhenq@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 住建部明确"好房子"五项工作，高质量 地开展好城市更新 ―地产及物管行业周报（2025/10/04-2025/10/10） 地产行业数据：一二手房成交跌幅扩大，成交推盘比回升。上周(10.4-10.10)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 98 万平米，环比-61.3%，其中，一二线环比-63.1%，三四线环比- 18.7%。10 月(10.1-10.10)34 城一手房成交同比-33.5%，较 9 月同期环比-56%。其 中，一二线同比-32.2%，三四线同比-45.3%，分别较 9 月同期环比-56.6%和-48.8%。 上周 13 城二手房合计成交 48.7 万平米，环比-32%; 10 月累计成交同比-18.8%, 较 9 月同期环比-62.9%。库存方面，上周 15 城合计推盘 20 万平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][27]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for growth, leading to a rebound in core cities and introducing new products, pricing, and business models [2][27]. - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 61.3% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality urban renewal and effective city governance as outlined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [2][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 980,000 square meters, down 61.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 63.1% decline [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 33.5% compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities stands at 90.27 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][19]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined five key areas for the "Good House" initiative, focusing on standards, design, materials, construction, and operation [2][27]. - Local policies include Guangzhou's measures to optimize land use and Longchun's reduction of down payment ratios for housing loans [2][29]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a 25.1% decrease in sales volume for the first nine months of the year, totaling 10.104 million square meters [2][33]. - New City Holdings issued offshore bonds worth $160 million at a rate of 11.9% [2][33]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.82%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 Index decline by 0.51% [2][38]. - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hefei Urban Construction and Zhongrun Resources, while noting significant declines in others like Shenzhen Deep Housing [2][40].

Core Insights - The investigation into the financial transactions between New城控股 and New城悦服务 has revealed significant undisclosed related-party transactions amounting to 6.97 billion yuan, which were previously misreported as "not applicable" in financial statements [2][4][6] - The transactions were orchestrated by former executive director Yang Bo, who bypassed regulatory approval processes to address New城控股's short-term funding needs [2][7] - New城悦服务 has dismissed Yang Bo and is enhancing internal controls following the investigation's findings [3][7] Financial Transactions - New城控股 corrected its financial statements to reflect related-party borrowings of 1.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 5.17 billion yuan in 2024, totaling 6.97 billion yuan in transactions [2][4][6] - The independent audit revealed discrepancies in bank transaction records, with a total of 2.27 billion yuan in undisclosed related-party transactions identified [4][5] - The highest outstanding amounts during the year were 700 million yuan and 800 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, but all funds were repaid by year-end [6] Corporate Governance - The investigation was initiated by New城悦服务's independent committee and involved extensive data collection and interviews with key personnel [5] - The findings indicated that only Yang Bo was involved in the unauthorized transactions, while other executives were not implicated [7] - New城悦服务 has committed to strengthening its internal controls to prevent future occurrences of similar issues [7] Financial Pressure on New城控股 - New城控股 faces significant financial pressure, with 13.55 billion yuan in debts maturing within a year and a funding gap of 4.367 billion yuan [8][12] - Approximately 60% of New城悦服务's property management revenue is derived from New城控股, highlighting the dependency between the two companies [9][10] - As of June, New城控股 had a total interest-bearing debt of 52.276 billion yuan, with only 9.183 billion yuan in cash available, indicating a liquidity challenge [12] Future Outlook - New城控股 has been actively pursuing various financing options, including public REITs and asset-backed securities, to manage its debt obligations [13] - The company issued a new bond of 160 million USD at an interest rate of 11.88% to refinance its maturing offshore debt [14] - The recent exposure of related-party transactions raises concerns about New城控股's ability to maintain its zero-default record and secure future funding from related entities [15]

北京商报讯（记者 王寅浩 李晗）10月9日，新城控股（601155）发布公告称，公司境外子公司NEW METRO GLOBAL LIMITED于10月2日完成发行1.6亿美元无抵押固定利率债券，期限2年，票面年息 11.88%，每半年支付一次。 根据公告，债券募集资金主要用于偿还公司一年内到期的境外中长期债务。债券已于10月1日在新加坡 证券交易所上市。 ...

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2025-046 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于境外子公司发行境外美元债券的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025年5月26日，新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）召开公司 2024年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于公司开展直接融资工作的议案》，授权公 司（含控股子公司）在不超过人民币200亿元（含境外等值外币）的规模下在境内 外开展直接融资工作，并根据《股票上市规则》、《公司章程》等的相关规定为子 公司提供相应担保，详见《公司2024年年度股东大会决议公告》（编号：2025- 033）。公司控股股东富域发展集团有限公司已于2025年4月16日收到国家发展和改 革委员会出具的《企业借用外债备案登记证明》（编号为"发改办外债〔2025〕 196号"），载明公司境外特殊目的子公司可于境外发行中长期美元债券。 2025年10月2日，公司境外子公司NEW METRO GLOBAL LIMITED（以下简 称"新城環球"）完成在境外发行总额为1.60亿美元的 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Metro Global Limited, a subsidiary of the company, successfully issued USD 160 million in unsecured fixed-rate bonds with a 2-year maturity and an annual interest rate of 11.88% [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance was completed on October 2, with a total amount of USD 160 million [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 2 years and pay interest semi-annually [1] - The bonds are rated B- by Standard & Poor's [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The funds raised from the bond issuance will primarily be used to repay the company's overseas medium to long-term debts that are due within one year [1] Group 3: Guarantee and Listing - The company and its indirect controlling shareholder, New City Development, provide unconditional and irrevocable joint liability guarantees for the bonds [1] - The bonds were listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange on October 1 [1]

Core Insights - The real estate development sector experienced a decline of 1.34% on October 9, with Shen Shen Fang A leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the real estate sector included: - Daming City (600094) with a closing price of 4.86, up 8.48% on a trading volume of 757,500 shares and a turnover of 368 million [1] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 8.37, up 7.31% with a trading volume of 1,394,600 shares and a turnover of 1.173 billion [1] - Wolong New Energy (600173) closed at 9.45, up 5.94% with a trading volume of 897,200 shares and a turnover of 828 million [1] - Major decliners included: - Shen Shen Fang A (000029) with a closing price of 30.22, down 10.01% on a trading volume of 112,700 shares and a turnover of 348 million [2] - Zhangjiang Changke (600895) closed at 49.46, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 1,475,800 shares and a turnover of 741.5 million [2] - New Town Holdings (601155) closed at 15.32, down 5.72% with a trading volume of 357,200 shares and a turnover of 54.9 million [2] Capital Flow - The real estate development sector saw a net outflow of 882 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 49.1 million [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Wolong New Energy (600173) with a net inflow of 1.19 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1.05 billion from retail investors [3] - Wanfang Development (600246) had a net inflow of 89.19 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 75.61 million from retail investors [3] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) saw a net inflow of 82.03 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 16.89 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - Real estate stocks experienced a decline throughout the day, with Zhangjiang Hi-Tech hitting the daily limit down, and New Town Holdings and Huafa Group dropping over 6% [1] - The real estate ETFs fell by more than 3%, indicating a broader market impact [1] Group 2 - Specific real estate ETFs reported the following prices and changes: - 159707 Real Estate ETF at 0.699, down 0.027, a decrease of 3.72% - 159768 at 0.629, down 0.024, a decrease of 3.68% [2] - Analysts suggest that the policy focus in the second half of the year will primarily be on land acquisition policies, with special bonds expected to expedite the acquisition of idle land and progress on existing housing, aligning with the goal of optimizing existing stock [2] - Urban village renovations are anticipated to accelerate inventory digestion and optimize supply-demand structure, with expectations for increased progress in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The company disclosed a correction to its 2024 annual report due to staff oversight, specifically in the section regarding related party transactions [1] - The corrected section now includes details on borrowing from related parties, with a maximum daily balance of 700 million yuan in 2023 and 800 million yuan in 2024, both with a year-end balance of 0 [1] - The company emphasized that the correction will not impact its financial condition or operating results for the 2024 fiscal year [2] Group 2 - The company expressed apologies for any inconvenience caused to investors due to the correction and committed to improving the accuracy and rigor of its information disclosure in the future [2]