Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index increased by 4.27% this week, closing at 5198.91 points as of August 22 [5] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 8003.97 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 32.60% [5] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Cambrian (688256.SH) with a rise of 34.59% 2. Sinopec Capital (000617.SZ) up by 34.38% 3. ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) increasing by 32.21% 4. Kunlun Wanwei (300418.SZ) up by 23.48% 5. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) rising by 22.95% [2] - The top ten losers included: 1. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) down by 11.68% 2. Giant Star Technology (002444.SZ) decreasing by 6.90% 3. Weilan Lithium Core (002245.SZ) down by 6.82% 4. Xuan Tai Medical (688617.SH) down by 5.66% 5. Tiger Med (300347.SZ) decreasing by 4.92% [2] Fund Performance - All 39 CSI A500 funds closed with a gain of 2% or more this week, with the leading fund being Huatai-PineBridge's A500 Index Fund (512370) which rose by 4.62% [5] - The total scale of CSI A500 funds reached 1810.70 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week [5] - The top three funds by scale are: 1. Huatai-PineBridge with 203.31 billion yuan 2. Guotai Fund with 183.57 billion yuan 3. E Fund with 183.57 billion yuan [5] Market Outlook - Shenyin Wanguo Securities reported a continued bullish market atmosphere, expecting strong performance to persist until early September, with limited corrections thereafter [5] - Guotai Junan Securities emphasized a cautious optimism regarding the market's upward potential, suggesting that a transition from liquidity-driven growth to fundamental-driven growth is necessary for sustained upward movement [5]

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2025-042 新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025 年 9 月 1 日（星期一）9:00-10:00 会 议 召 开 地 点 ： 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 上 证 路 演 中 心 （ 网 址 ： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 一、说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络形式召开，公司将针对 2025 年半年度的经营成果 及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披露允许的范围内 就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点 1、召开时间：2025 年 9 月 1 日上午 9:00-10:00 2、召开地点：上证路演中心 投资者可于 2025 年 8 月 25 日（星期一）至 8 月 29 日（星期五）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that top shopping centers exhibit strong stability, contrary to the market perception that they are vulnerable to economic downturns and online consumption impacts [2][6] - Despite a projected decline in retail sales growth in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, top shopping centers have managed to achieve retail sales growth, with specific centers reporting increases of 30%, 6%, and 26% year-on-year [2][3] - The success of top shopping centers is attributed to their ability to attract consumer traffic and popular brands, creating a positive cycle of customer flow and brand presence, which helps maintain rental income stability [2][4] Group 2 - High-end shopping centers are facing challenges due to economic fluctuations, but those in stable competitive environments can still achieve retail growth by attracting fast-growing brands and upgrading their offerings [3][6] - The competitive advantage of shopping centers is not solely based on location or operational capabilities, but rather on their ability to provide an engaging shopping experience, known as "walkability" [4][5] - A robust management system is crucial for commercial real estate companies, as it differentiates them in a market where operational know-how is not scarce [5][7] Group 3 - Top shopping centers and commercial real estate companies are considered valuable assets, maintaining stability even during economic downturns by leveraging their scale advantages and effective marketing strategies [6][7] - Companies that excel in commercial real estate should possess strong management capabilities, stable existing shopping centers, and the ability to successfully launch new projects [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation amid uncertainties in external environments, such as ongoing Sino-US trade frictions [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.5%, the ChiNext Index grew by 8.6%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.4%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw an increase of 3.9% [6][9] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were Wantong Development (+39.4%), Quzhou Development (+33.0%), Electronic City (+32.0%), *ST Nanzhi (+25.0%), and Shahe Shares (+21.2%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 141 million square meters, a decrease of 1.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [16] - As of August 15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities for the month totaled 306 million square meters, down 9.5% month-on-month and down 20.9% year-on-year [20] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 178 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [31] - As of August 15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities for the month totaled 381 million square meters, down 5.5% month-on-month and down 2.1% year-on-year [36] Industry News - From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment reached 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The sales area of commercial housing was 51.56 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year [49] - Local policies include Hainan Province encouraging "purchase instead of construction" for resettling relocated residents and Guangzhou releasing new regulations for rural residential construction management [49] Company Announcements - In July 2025, China Jinmao achieved a sales amount of 8.46 billion yuan (up 49% year-on-year), while New Town Holdings reported 1.66 billion yuan (down 52% year-on-year) [52] - China Resources Land reported a sales amount of 13.3 billion yuan (down 14% year-on-year) for July 2025 [52]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]

Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Pop Mart reached 4.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 362.8% [1] - Revenue breakdown by region for Pop Mart shows: - China: 8.28 billion yuan, up 135.2% - Asia-Pacific: 2.85 billion yuan, up 257.8% - Americas: 2.26 billion yuan, up 1142.3% - Europe and others: 480 million yuan, up 729.2% [1] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Baidu's search platform has integrated with the Dutch National Museum, Trip.com, and Tongcheng, expanding its MCP offerings [2] - Apple is increasing iPhone production in India to supply new models to the U.S. market [3] - Dazhihui announced it has not engaged in stablecoin, virtual asset trading, or cross-border payment businesses [4] - SoftBank's Masayoshi Son reportedly discussed acquiring Intel's struggling foundry business prior to announcing a $2 billion investment [5] - New companies have been established, including a 1 billion yuan registered capital company by Ninebot in Changzhou [5] and a 1.6 billion yuan enterprise management company in Tianjin involving New City Holdings [6] Group 3: Market Trends - Arm Holdings has hired Amazon's AI chip director to develop its own chips, indicating a competitive move against Nvidia [7][8] - A new hedge fund founded by a former Goldman Sachs trader has secured $1 billion from Millennium Management [8] - European exports are being impacted by U.S. tariff policies, as noted by ING's macro research head [8] Group 4: Government Policies - Thailand is simplifying the process for tourists to exchange cryptocurrency for Thai baht to stimulate tourism [9] - Guangdong Province is encouraging companies to focus on key technologies in commercial aerospace, including reusable liquid rocket engines [9] - Hainan has optimized its personal income tax preferential policies for high-demand talent, adjusting the calculation method for residency days [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 18 yuan over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in rental income from its held properties, with total commercial operation revenue reaching 8.14 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1]. - The real estate development business is facing challenges, with sales amounting to 1.66 billion yuan and sales area of 214,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.4% and 54.2% respectively [2]. - The company has successfully issued offshore bonds and medium-term notes, indicating an improving financing environment [3]. Summary by Sections Commercial Operations - The total revenue from commercial operations for the first seven months of 2025 was 8.14 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year, with July alone contributing 1.2 billion yuan, a growth of 8.1% [1]. - The company holds 176 properties with a total area of 16.225 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 5.1% respectively [1]. - Average rental income per project increased by 6.1% to 43.146 million yuan [1]. Real Estate Sales - The company reported a sales amount of 1.66 billion yuan and a sales area of 214,000 square meters in the first seven months, down 52.4% and 54.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average sales price was 7,760.6 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year [2]. Debt Financing - In June 2025, the company successfully issued 300 million USD in offshore bonds, followed by a 1 billion yuan medium-term note in August with a coupon rate of 2.68% [3]. - The dual business model of holding and developing properties is enhancing cash flow, allowing the company to stabilize sales prices while slowing turnover [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected to decline significantly from 2025 to 2027, with estimates of -28.4%, -34.4%, and -30.9% respectively [4]. - Net profit growth is expected to be 9.3%, 31.2%, and 15.6% over the same period [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.59, compared to the industry average of 0.79 [4].

| 债券名称 | 国金资管–吾悦广场持有型不动产资产支持专项计划 | | --- | --- | | 品种 | ABS | | 拟发行金额(单位:亿元) | 10.64 | | 原始权益人 | 上海睿硕创企业管理有限公司 | | 计划管理人 | 国金证券资产管理有限公司 | | 交易所确认文件文号 | 上证函〔2025〕2616 号 | | 项目状态 | 通过 | | 更新日期 | 2025-08-15 | | 受理日期 | 2025-05-30 | 据上交所消息，国金资管-吾悦广场持有型不动产资产支持专项计划正式获批。该项目发行规模为10.64亿元，原始权益人为上海睿硕创企业管理有限公 司，计划管理人为国金证券资产管理有限公司。本次ABS发行的底层资产是上海青浦吾悦广场，属于较为优质的吾悦广场项目，于2014年底开业，总建筑 面积：约15万㎡，其中可租赁商业面积约12万㎡。据了解，截至2024年末，新城控股在全国136个城市共布局有200座吾悦广场，已开业及委托管理在营数 量173座，出租率提升至97.97%。2024年实现商业运营总收入128.08亿元，同比增长 13.10%。 从租金贡献看，江苏和浙江区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the optimization of existing housing storage policies is expected to gradually assist in inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for allocation as affordable housing. The report notes that the slow progress in storage is primarily due to pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, and the responsibility for compliance and profitability lies with local governments [1][5]. - The report suggests that there is room for policy optimization, such as removing price caps to encourage developers to sell inventory, extending re-loan terms, and lowering interest rates to improve project profitability. These cumulative effects are expected to gradually aid in inventory reduction and enhance the recovery slope of real estate stock prices [1][5]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy announcements. The decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. The report indicates that the real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (industry challenges), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Evaluation - The report discusses the marginal optimization of existing housing storage policies, which is expected to facilitate inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China has set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]. - The report identifies that the slow progress in storage is due to the pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, with local governments bearing the ultimate responsibility for compliance and profitability [1][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks, including China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [6].

Group 1 - The establishment of Tianjin Xinrong Su Shan Enterprise Management Center (Limited Partnership) with a registered capital of 1.6 billion yuan [1] - The business scope includes enterprise management, investment activities with self-owned funds, asset management services, and information consulting services (excluding licensed information consulting services) [1] - The company is jointly held by New City Holdings' New City Holdings Group Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. and China CITIC Financial Asset Management Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Branch among others [1]