来源：金融界 2025年8月4日，上海清算所网站披露公告，新城控股集团股份有限公司于2025年7月31日至8月1日发行 2025年度第一期中期票据（中市协注[2025]MTN402号） ，债券简称25新城控股MTN001 ，期限5年期 ，起息日2025年8月4日 ，兑付日2030年8月4日 ，计划发行总额100,000万元，实际发行总额100,000万元 ，发行利率2.68% ，发行价100（百元面值） 。合规申购家数10家，合规申购金额228,000万元 ，最高 申购价位3.5% ，最低申购价位2.5% ，有效申购家数4家，有效申购金额123,000万元 。簿记管理人、主 承销商为中信证券股份有限公司，联席主承销商为中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司、招商银行股份有限 公司。本期中期票据发行基础规模人民币0亿元，发行金额上限人民币10亿元，其中不超过5亿元募集资 金拟用于发行人及下属子公司补充流动资金，剩余募集资金拟用于普通商品房住宅项目开发建设、购回 及偿还发行人及发行人股东新城发展控股有限公司境外美元债券等法律法规允许的用途。 ...

新城控股发行10亿元5年期担保中票，票息定在2.68%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development sector and real estate services sector [10][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales in 44 cities, with a week-on-week increase of 22%, while second-hand home sales saw a slight decline of 5% [2]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in 44 cities are down 6% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales are up 14% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory reduction, noting a 0.4% decrease in new home inventory in 21 key cities [33]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.75%, with the real estate development sector down 3.43% [3]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the real estate market, with new home sales showing signs of recovery while second-hand sales are declining [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.34 - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.32 - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) with a target price of 12.08 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 17.07 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 12.73 - China Overseas Property (2669 HK) with a target price of 7.74 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 [11][43]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Data - New home sales in July across 44 cities decreased by 19% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down 26% [15]. - The report notes that second-hand home sales in 22 cities decreased by 6% in July, but year-to-date, they are up 14% [24]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of July 27, the inventory of new homes in 21 key cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 14% [33]. - The report indicates that the de-stocking speed in first-tier cities is 54 weeks, while second-tier cities are at 87 weeks [33]. Recommendations and Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of key city markets and the valuation recovery of companies with strong cash flow and performance [4][42]. - The report suggests that property management companies are also likely to see valuation recovery as the real estate market stabilizes [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][36]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but it will take approximately two years for residents' balance sheets to recover, leading to a continued downward trend in volume and price [3][36]. - It is expected that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and residents' financial health [3][36]. - The introduction of new policies for housing will create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities with lower penetration rates [3][36]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 cities increased by 17.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities up by 18.3% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 2.7% [4][7]. - In July, the transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.3% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 56.2% [7][8]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a current available residential area of 89.088 million square meters [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized high-quality urban renewal and the implementation of urban renewal actions to promote the healthy development of the real estate market [29][32]. - The Ministry of Finance supports the construction of a new model for real estate development and the implementation of urban renewal actions [29][32]. - Local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including policies for public rental housing and adjustments to housing provident fund policies [29][33]. Company Dynamics - The report notes that Joy City Real Estate plans to privatize, intending to cancel 4.73 billion shares, which accounts for 33.24% of its total shares [3][36]. - Lujiazui reported a 33.91% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 6.598 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.87% to 815 million yuan [36]. - New City Holdings issued 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at a record low interest rate of 2.68% for five years [36].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings successfully issued its first medium-term notes for 2025, indicating strong market demand and confidence in the company's financial stability [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuance scale of the medium-term notes is 1 billion yuan [1] - The subscription multiple was 2.28 times, reflecting robust investor interest [1] - The notes have a maturity period of 5 years and a coupon rate of 2.68% [1] Group 2: Credit Ratings - China Chengxin International assigned a dual AAA rating to both the issuer and the current debt issue, highlighting the company's strong creditworthiness [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for quality companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management [4][5]. Core Insights - The sales performance of real estate companies in July 2025 showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 23% in sales amount and 26.6% in sales area. Cumulatively, the first seven months of 2025 saw an 18.4% decline in sales amount compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the sales market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities. It suggests that the real estate market will exhibit a "structurally strong + overall weak" pattern moving forward [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that while the broad housing demand has bottomed out, the recovery of residents' balance sheets will take approximately two years, which will delay the expected positive cycle in price and volume [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (18 billion), China Merchants Shekou (15.6 billion), and Vanke (13.5 billion). The threshold for the top three has decreased from 15.9 billion in the same month last year to 13.5 billion this year [4][5]. - The cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2025 were led by Poly Developments (163.2 billion), China Overseas (132 billion), and China Resources (123.6 billion), with significant year-on-year declines for most companies [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, such as Jianfa International, Binhai Group, China Resources Land, and Jianfa Holdings. It also suggests monitoring companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao [4][5]. - For undervalued recovery companies, the report highlights New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Overseas, Longfor Group, and Huafa Group as potential investment opportunities [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5] Core Insights - New home sales in July 2025 experienced seasonal adjustments, with a month-on-month decline of 38.1% and a year-on-year decline of 23.2%, indicating a weakening market momentum [1] - The report highlights an expected acceleration in the implementation of real estate policies, particularly in first-tier cities and core areas, which may exceed expectations [1] - The sales threshold for the top 10 real estate companies increased significantly, while sales amounts for various tiers of companies showed a month-on-month decline [2] - The concentration of top real estate companies has increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 52.8% of total sales among the top 100 companies, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [3] - Overall market activity in the real estate sector has declined, suggesting a traditional off-season, with a recommendation to focus on companies with advantages in core city layouts [4] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In July 2025, new home sales saw a month-on-month decrease of 38.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, with cumulative sales from January to July down 14.4% year-on-year [1] Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies were 616 billion, 217 billion, 147 billion, 77 billion, and 25 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2] Company Concentration - The top 10 companies' sales accounted for 52.8% of the total sales of the top 100 companies, indicating a slight increase in concentration compared to the previous year [3] Market Activity - The market activity for new and second-hand homes in 44 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 34.4% and 28.2% respectively, indicating a seasonal downturn [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate developers with strong credit, good city locations, and quality products, as well as top property management companies and REITs benefiting from asset revaluation in Hong Kong [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with the top 100 real estate companies reporting a total sales revenue of 20,730.1 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In July 2025, the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies also saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 18.2% [1] - The average sales revenue for the top 10 real estate companies in the first seven months was 1,010.3 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year [2] - Among the top 20 real estate companies, only seven firms, including Jianfa Real Estate and Yuexiu Property, reported an increase in sales, while the rest experienced varying degrees of decline [2][3] Group 2: Company Rankings and Changes - Companies like Jindi Group and New Town Holdings saw their sales drop by over 50%, causing them to fall out of the top 20 rankings [3] - Poly Developments, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land experienced sales declines between 10% and 20%, aligning with industry trends [4] - The top 20 real estate companies saw a reshuffling in rankings, with nine companies improving their positions, while six companies, including Vanke and Longfor Group, saw their rankings decline [4] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, suggesting that more supportive measures may be introduced to stabilize the market [5] - The new housing market is expected to continue experiencing low transaction volumes in August, with significant differentiation between cities and projects [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The focus of urban renewal should be on the transformation of urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated housing. It is anticipated that urban village renovation projects will continue to increase in volume by 2025, with attention on the pace of PSL (Policy-based Financial Instruments) issuance in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The report suggests that the fourth quarter of this year will face a high base period, but there is an expectation of policy strengthening in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and aim for stabilization. If sales do not stabilize in the fourth quarter, there may be sales pressure on blue-chip developers in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal as a key theme in this year's important meetings, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of urban renewal policies [5][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating, with specific stock picks including: 1. Development: Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and JinDi Group in A-shares; China Overseas Development in H-shares 2. Commercial and Residential: China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and New Town Holdings 3. Property Management: Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and New Dazheng 4. Cultural Tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [5][6]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating. For example: - Vanke A: EPS forecast for 2024A is -4.17 CNY - Poly Developments: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.42 CNY - China Overseas Development: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.43 CNY [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to stabilize the economy and support urban renewal initiatives [3][6]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a key focus, with the central government calling for high-quality implementation of urban renewal projects, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities [3][11]. - The report suggests that the current real estate market is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, aligning with the "good housing" development direction, which is expected to create significant opportunities for quality real estate companies [3][11]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The central government aims to enhance fiscal spending and maintain liquidity to lower financing costs for businesses and residents [3][6]. - The emphasis is on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [3][6]. Urban Renewal - The report notes that urban renewal is being positioned as a critical measure to boost demand, particularly through the transformation of urban villages [3][11]. - The central government has set higher standards for urban renewal, indicating a shift towards improving existing urban environments rather than merely expanding [3][11]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The report identifies a potential bottoming out of broad housing demand, with expectations for policy measures to further stimulate the market, including urban renewal and mortgage rate reductions [3][11]. - Quality real estate companies are expected to lead the recovery, with improvements in return on equity (ROE) driven by better inventory management rather than increased leverage [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate firms with strong product capabilities and inventory management, such as Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land [3][11]. - It also highlights undervalued firms like Xincheng Holdings and China Overseas Development as potential investment opportunities [3][11].