Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate [2][28]. Core Insights - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a reassessment of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policy management to stabilize market expectations and suggests that policies should be decisive rather than incremental to avoid market-political conflicts [28][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 4.067 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.8%, with first and second-tier cities up by 12.7% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 15.5% [3][6]. - December saw a year-on-year decline of 26% in new home transactions across 34 cities, with first and second-tier cities down by 25.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 30.6% [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.1 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 10.4%, with December's cumulative transactions down by 26.8% year-on-year [11][12]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in new home inventory, with 15 cities seeing a total of 89.401 million square meters available for sale, down 1.4% week-on-week. The average months of inventory turnover is 21.8 months, a decrease of 0.9 months [22][27]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales, with properties sold within two years subject to a 3% tax and those sold after two years exempt from tax [28][29]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key indicators in the real estate market, emphasizing that housing is a critical asset for families and directly impacts public interest [28][29]. Company Developments - China Resources Land has established its first Pre-REITs fund, focusing on quality commercial real estate projects, with a fund size of 300 million yuan [35]. - CIFI Holdings has completed its debt restructuring, marking a significant milestone for the company [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in shopping centers [2][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the real estate sector as a significant contributor to the national economy and household wealth, advocating for robust policy measures to stabilize market expectations [30]. - It identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for "good housing" and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][30]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 4.067 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.8% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, December transactions in these cities decreased by 26%, with first and second-tier cities down 25.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 30.6% [2][6]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.1 million square meters, a decrease of 10.4% from the previous week [11]. - Cumulatively, December transactions were down 26.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in third and fourth-tier cities [11][7]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in available housing inventory, with a total of 89.401 million square meters available in 15 cities, down 1.4% week-on-week [23]. - The average months of inventory turnover for the last three months is reported at 21.8 months, indicating a slight improvement in market absorption [23]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - Recent policy changes include a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales, aimed at stimulating market activity [30][31]. - The report highlights the need for policies that align with market expectations to avoid creating a tug-of-war between market forces and regulatory measures [30]. Company Developments - Notable company activities include the establishment of a Pre-REITs fund by China Resources Land, aimed at investing in quality commercial real estate projects [36][38]. - CIFI Holdings has completed its debt restructuring, marking a significant milestone in its financial recovery efforts [36].

Core Insights - The company emphasizes a focus on core capabilities and a return to fundamentals in response to external uncertainties for the year 2026 [2][3] - The company aims to align with national economic strategies, focusing on high-quality development and enhancing consumer engagement through innovative commercial spaces [3] Achievements in 2025 - In 2025, the company became the first private real estate enterprise in three years to successfully issue pure credit offshore bonds and launched the first consumer real estate ABS in the country [2] - The company delivered nearly 40,000 residential units and five Wuyue Plazas, increasing the total number of operational Wuyue Plazas to 178 [2] - The green building coverage rate for ongoing projects reached 100%, with 106 Wuyue Plazas receiving provincial-level or higher green shopping mall certifications [2] Strategic Focus for 2026 - The company plans to leverage its dual-driven strategy of commercial management and real estate development to navigate economic cycles [3] - There will be a continued emphasis on financial stability and transforming credit advantages into developmental momentum [3] - The company aims to implement a "big asset management" strategy and enhance light asset management output [3] Technological Integration - The company intends to scale the application of AI and digital technologies in development, commercial management, and organizational collaboration [3] - There is a focus on transforming technological capabilities into core competitive advantages and fostering a more agile and efficient innovative organization [3] Commitment to ESG - The company plans to deepen the integration of ESG principles into its business operations and ensure that green development is embedded in daily practices [3]

证券代码：601155 证券简称：新城控股 编号：2026-001 新城控股集团股份有限公司 公司于2025年12月31日接到常州德润的通知，常州德润与中信证券股份有限公 司（以下简称"中信证券"）协商一致，同意将质押给中信证券部分股权的质押期限 延长一年。相关手续已办理完毕，具体事项如下： 一、上市公司股份质押情况 公司分别于2022年12月14日、2023年12月14日及2024年12月19日披露了常州德 润将其持有的30,000,000股公司股份质押给中信证券的公告，具体请见公司于上海 证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及指定披露媒体披露的公告（公告编号： 2022-081、2023-070及2024-052）。 截至公告披露日，公司控股股东富域发展集团有限公司（以下简称"富域 发展"）的一致行动人常州德润咨询管理有限公司（以下简称"常州德润"） 持有本公司股份为137,800,000股，占公司总股本6.11%，其中被质押的股 份累计60,000,000股，占其持有公司股份的43.54%，占公司总股本的2.66%。 截至公告披露日，公司控股股东富域发展及其一致行动人常州德润累计持 有本公司股 ...

新城控股公告称，公司于2025年12月31日接到股东常州德润通知，其与中信证券协商一致，将质押的 3000万股公司股权质押期限延长一年，从2025年12月12日延至2026年12月12日，该股份占其持股的 21.77%，占公司总股本的1.33%，资金用于偿还前期债务。截至公告披露日，控股股东富域发展及其一 致行动人常州德润累计持股占总股本67.20%，累计质押股份占其持股的24.55%，占总股本的16.49%。 若出现平仓风险，常州德润将采取相应措施应对。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The new housing value-added tax policy, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to lower transaction costs by reducing the tax rate from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of second-hand housing transactions and stabilize the real estate market [1][2][3]. - The policy reflects the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and is anticipated to create opportunities for capable real estate companies by improving the demand-side replacement chain and optimizing supply-side quality [1][4]. Summary by Sections Tax Rate and Policy Adjustments - The new policy significantly reduces the short-term holding tax rate from 5% to 3%, representing a 40% decrease in transaction costs. For a property priced at 1 million (excluding tax), the tax burden decreases from 53,000 to 31,000 [2]. - The policy eliminates regional differences in tax exemptions, standardizing the exemption period to two years nationwide [2]. Market Dynamics and Demand - The adjustment primarily targets properties held for less than two years, which currently have low transaction willingness due to self-use demand. However, the policy is seen as a signal to stabilize demand and relax restrictions on short-term transactions [3]. - The report notes a shift in the market from new housing to second-hand housing, with a 5% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while new housing transactions have decreased by 4% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several real estate companies based on their creditworthiness, product quality, and operational capabilities. Key recommendations include: - Companies with strong credit and product quality such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group [5][9]. - Companies with robust cash flow management during market adjustments like New City Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Link REIT [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent policy change on the value-added tax (VAT) for personal housing sales, reducing the rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, aims to lower seller transaction costs and help restore the transaction chain [2][4]. - The real estate industry has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with front-end indicators (sales, land acquisition, and construction) declining by 50-70%, and back-end indicators (completion and investment) dropping by 30-40% [4]. - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices from July 2021 to September 2025 is 37%, surpassing the average decline of 34% across 42 countries [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support demand-side recovery to stabilize the market, particularly in core cities [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will exempt individuals from paying VAT on properties sold after two years of purchase, while those selling within two years will pay a reduced rate of 3% [5]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the critical need for repairing household balance sheets to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with expectations for further supportive policies to stabilize the market [4]. - Anticipated policy measures include reductions in mortgage rates, optimization of purchase restrictions and taxes in first-tier cities, accelerated land acquisition, and support for real estate financing [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two key investment opportunities: the revaluation of quality commercial real estate and the emergence of strong product capabilities in core cities [4]. - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New World Development, Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New World Development. 2. Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Jinmao. 3. Undervalued recovery companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments. 4. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property. 5. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yonghui Supermarket is accelerating its retail network upgrade in Nanchang, responding to market demand and enhancing quality retail transformation with the opening of the new "Fat Yonghui" store, marking a new phase in its strategic layout in the region [1][19]. Product Structure Optimization - The store has undergone significant product restructuring, adding over 3,400 new items, achieving 80% of the product structure of the "Fat Donglai" model, with imported goods accounting for 12% [3][10]. - Fresh produce remains a traditional strength, with the introduction of differentiated selections and seasonal popular items like Chilean cherries and Dandong strawberries, while maintaining a commitment to quality and affordability [7][10]. In-Store Experience Enhancements - The store has increased the proportion of fresh food and bakery items from 5% to approximately 20%, introducing new ready-to-eat products and seasonal themed items [9][12]. - Customer experience improvements include a more flexible shopping layout, additional checkout counters, and lower shelf heights for better visibility and accessibility [12][13]. Service and Employee Welfare - The store has expanded its service offerings, including customer rest areas and various conveniences like medical supplies and pet storage [13][15]. - Employee numbers have increased from 85 to 150, with improved average salaries and benefits, including paid leave and enhanced working conditions [15][17]. Commitment to Quality and Local Needs - Yonghui aims to meet consumer demand for high-quality, cost-effective products by introducing a dedicated area for its private label and local specialties [10][19]. - The company emphasizes local characteristics and quality upgrades in its product offerings, aiming to create a community shopping space that is welcoming and trustworthy for Nanchang residents [19].