Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [8] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies expected to support recovery in 2026. The emphasis is on the financial attributes of real estate and its macroeconomic significance [17][19] - In December 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported a sales decline of 23.8% year-on-year, with an annual decline of 15.9% for the entire year [16][17] - The report suggests focusing on three areas for investment opportunities: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services, along with developers with strong product capabilities [19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2025, the sales figures for the top 100 real estate companies showed a year-on-year decline of 23.8%, with cumulative sales for the year down 15.9% [16][17] - The top 10 companies had a sales decline of 13.1%, while the next tiers saw declines of 27.9% and 23.8% respectively [16] Market Trends - The report indicates that the new housing market is stabilizing, while the second-hand market is expected to see an increase in volume with stable prices [2] - The report highlights a significant drop in new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with declines of 21.18% and 21.75% year-on-year respectively [6] Policy Outlook - The report anticipates stronger policy support for the real estate market in 2026, aiming to boost market confidence and stabilize expectations [17][19] - The emphasis on "good housing" standards is expected to guide the industry towards quality improvement rather than mere expansion [4][18] Stock Market and Credit Bonds - The A-share real estate sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 5.07%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 3.04% [21][33] - The issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 6.38 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 0.457 billion yuan [21][40] REITs Market - The REITs index increased by 1.74%, with the property REITs index rising by 2.27% [42][55] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 1.615 billion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to previous weeks [55]

Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on January 9 to implement a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need to guide social capital in promoting consumption and expanding investment, particularly in supporting resident consumption upgrades and private investment development [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy during its 2026 work meeting, aiming to support stable growth in the real economy and financial market, while also addressing financial risks in key areas [1] - Recent adjustments to the real estate financing coordination mechanism allow projects on the "white list" to extend loans for up to five years, compared to the previous maximum of two and a half years [1] Market News - In 2025, the total land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan, and the planned building area for residential land transactions fell by 13.5% to 620 million square meters [4] - The top 20 cities accounted for 52% of the national residential land transfer fees, indicating a concentration of land acquisition by major enterprises in core cities [4] Real Estate Company News - Vanke announced that Yu Liang has retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president, with no impact on the board's operation [8] - Country Garden's four bonds resumed trading on January 9 after early cash repayment was completed on December 26, 2025 [12] - Sunac China reported three new overdue debts totaling approximately 640 million yuan, with the main reasons being unpaid principal [13] - R&F Properties disclosed that as of November 30, 2025, the total overdue debt reached 38.7 billion yuan, primarily due to various financial obligations not being repaid [14] - Several real estate companies reported their 2025 sales performance, with Poly Developments achieving a signed sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan and China Overseas Development reaching 251.23 billion yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a pessimistic outlook for the real estate market, with expectations of a 10%-15% decline in second-hand housing prices over the next two years [1][3][12] Core Insights - The overall real estate sales are projected to decline moderately, with new housing sales decreasing but a slight rebound in the absorption rate anticipated [1][5] - Land sales are expected to slow down after a brief recovery in the first half of 2025, with new construction area potentially dropping below 500 million square meters by the end of 2027 [1][6] - Developers are facing significant financing challenges, with interest burdens rising, particularly for private developers, leading to increased repayment pressures [1][8] - The liquidity situation for 28 developers under pressure has worsened, with a significant reduction in sales contribution and a high proportion of short-term debt [1][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Outlook - The forecast for the real estate market in 2026 and 2027 has been updated, with a delay in the stabilization of housing prices due to unclear policy support [2][12] - Second-hand housing prices are expected to decline by 10%-15%, with transaction volumes stabilizing around 600 million square meters [3][12] New Housing Market - New housing sales are anticipated to decline, but a slight rebound in the absorption rate is expected due to a decrease in available inventory [5][6] Land Sales and New Construction - Land sales are projected to concentrate in first and second-tier cities, with new construction area potentially decreasing significantly by 2027 [6][7] Developer Challenges - Developers are facing increased interest expenses, with the interest coverage ratio for many private companies dropping significantly, raising concerns about their ability to manage debt [8][9] - The report categorizes developers into three groups based on their financial health, highlighting the challenges faced by private developers [13][15] Property Management Sector - The property management sector is viewed as relatively defensive, with expectations of stable fundamentals and potential marginal recovery [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][24]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with positive policy factors accumulating. Recent central government directives emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a potential shift in policy support [2][24]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for some quality companies are at historical lows, making them attractive investment opportunities [2][24]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a 12.6% increase week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions are down 23.3% compared to the same period last year [10][12]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months is 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [18][24]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policy updates include an extension of loan financing for white-listed projects from 2 years to 5 years, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][24]. - Local governments are implementing various supportive measures, such as tax relief for property taxes in Shanghai and talent attraction policies in Nanjing, which include living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [24][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Views - The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still bottoming out, but positive policy factors are accumulating. Recent policies include extending loan financing for whitelist projects from 2 years to 5 years and various local government initiatives to support housing and talent retention [2][26]. - The report highlights that the real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment, and with recent central government calls to stabilize the market, there is an expectation for positive policy changes ahead. The current valuation levels for quality companies are attractive [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - For the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. Among these, first and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.6%. However, year-on-year, January's cumulative transactions were down 23.3% compared to last year [10]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 key cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months was 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [19]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policies include the Shanghai announcement for tax relief on land use for eligible taxpayers, and Nanjing's new talent policies offering living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [26][29]. - The establishment of the first local government-guided REITs fund in Xiamen, with a target size of 5.5 billion over 10 years, aims to revitalize existing assets [26][30]. Company Dynamics - December sales data for major real estate companies showed significant declines, with China Overseas Development reporting 39.83 billion yuan (-1%), and CIFI Holdings down 58.3% to 1 billion yuan [35]. - Notable changes in shareholding include the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder of Binhai Group, decreasing their stake to 60% [35].

Group 1 - The company achieved a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.238 billion yuan in December 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.44%. For the entire year of 2025, the total commercial operating revenue reached approximately 14.09 billion yuan, an increase of 10.00% compared to the previous year [1][2] - The rental income includes rent, management fees, parking fees, and other miscellaneous management fee income, with the total commercial operating revenue for 2025 being 14.09 billion yuan, which includes taxable rental income [2] - The occupancy rate is based on the commercial property rental situation as of December 31, 2025 [3] Group 2 - In December 2025, the company realized a contract sales amount of approximately 1.354 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.80% year-on-year, with a sales area of approximately 184,300 square meters, down 51.34% year-on-year [4] - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative contract sales amount was approximately 19.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.03%, with a cumulative contract sales area of approximately 2.5358 million square meters, down 52.94% year-on-year [4] Group 3 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company repaid 3.788 billion yuan of bonds in the domestic and overseas public markets [5] - As of December 31, 2025, the company's joint ventures had a total interest-bearing debt of 2.385 billion yuan [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable and positive performance of New城控股 in 2025, with a total sales amount of 19.27 billion and a sales area of approximately 2.5358 million square meters [2] - The commercial sector of New城控股 has shown continuous improvement, with total annual commercial operating revenue increasing by 10% to 14.09 billion [2] - New城控股 has maintained a high level of credit management, ensuring a safe and stable debt structure, with a total repayment of 5.855 billion in domestic and foreign public market bonds for the year [2] Group 2 - In November 2025, New城控股 successfully issued a real estate asset-backed security (ABS) with a scale of 616 million, marking it as the first consumer-type holding real estate ABS in the country and the first issued by a private enterprise listed on A-shares [3] - The issuance of this holding-type ABS is seen as a significant step in New城控股's strategic shift from "real estate development and sales" to "asset operation," providing a practical model for private real estate companies [3] - Throughout 2025, New城控股 has actively engaged in both domestic and foreign markets, successfully issuing various bonds and notes, including a 300 million senior unsecured bond and multiple medium-term notes with low interest rates [3]

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 1月9日，新城控股发布2025年12月份及第四季度经营简报称，2025年12月份公司实现商 业运营总收入约12.38亿元，比上年同期增长6.44%；2025年1月-12月份公司累计实现商业运营总收入约 140.90亿元，比上年同期增长10.00%。2025年12月份公司实现合同销售金额约13.54亿元，比上年同期 下降57.80%；销售面积约18.43万平方米，比上年同期下降51.34%。2025年1月-12月份公司累计实现合 同销售金额约192.70亿元，比上年同期下降52.03%；累计合同销售面积约253.58万平方米，比上年同期 下降52.94%。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 李晗）2026年1月9日，新城控股披露2025年12月经营简报。简报显示，2025年12月 新城控股实现合同销售金额约13.54亿元；销售面积约18.43万平方米。 ...

Core Insights - New City Holdings reported a stable and positive performance for 2025, achieving a total sales amount of 19.27 billion yuan and a sales area of approximately 2.5358 million square meters [1] - The commercial segment saw a total operating revenue of 14.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [2] - The company emphasized its commitment to quality and responsibility, delivering over 38,000 properties throughout the year, with a cumulative delivery exceeding 278,000 properties over the past three years [6] Sales Performance - In 2025, New City Holdings achieved a sales amount of 19.27 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 2.5358 million square meters [6] - The company maintained stable sales performance despite industry challenges, with a focus on long-term sustainability and operational resilience [1][6] Commercial Operations - The commercial segment's total operating revenue reached approximately 14.09 billion yuan, marking a 10% increase from the previous year [2] - New City Holdings opened several new shopping centers, enhancing consumer attraction and service functionality [2] - The company has established 207 Wuyue Plazas across 141 cities, with 178 currently operational, leading among publicly listed companies in China [2] Financing Innovations - New City Holdings has innovated in financing by utilizing asset-backed securities (ABS) to enhance asset liquidity and value [3] - The company successfully issued a 616 million yuan ABS backed by Qingpu Wuyue Plaza, marking a significant milestone in the industry [4] - In 2025, the company issued three medium-term notes totaling 1.75 billion yuan, maintaining low interest rates and achieving AAA ratings [5] Delivery and Quality Commitment - The company delivered over 38,000 properties in 2025, with a total of over 278,000 properties delivered in the last three years [6] - New City Holdings has focused on ensuring delivery as a core aspect of its stable development strategy [6] Strategic Development - New City Holdings is transitioning from "real estate development and sales" to "asset operation," which is seen as a key strategic shift [4] - The company aims to focus on core capabilities and respond to external uncertainties as it enters 2026, which is viewed as a critical year [7]