Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][46] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.6%, the ChiNext Index by 2.1%, and the CSI 300 by 1.4%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 6.0% [6][9] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Shoukai Co. (+57.0%), Suning Universal (+47.1%), Wolong New Energy (+28.1%), Xinda Zheng (+24.5%), and Heimu Dan (+20.9%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.54 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6% from the previous week [15] - For September up to the week of September 12, new housing transactions totaled 2.72 million square meters, an increase of 14.1% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.96 million square meters, an increase of 13.5% from the previous week [29] - For September up to the week of September 12, second-hand housing transactions totaled 3.38 million square meters, an increase of 15.6% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued guidelines to improve the quality of administrative law enforcement in housing construction [46] - The State Council emphasized the importance of high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with measures to enhance the convenience of real estate registration [46] - The report highlights that Guangdong Province has designated Guangzhou and Shenzhen as pilot cities for modular construction, with a trial period until the end of 2028 [46] Company Announcements - In August, New Town Holdings reported a sales amount of 1.58 billion yuan (down 37% year-on-year), while China Jinmao reported 9.077 billion yuan (up 46.5% year-on-year) [50] - China Jinmao's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 25.11 billion yuan, an increase of 14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [50]

Group 1 - New City Holdings experienced a 5% decline on September 18, with a stock price of 15.20 yuan per share, a trading volume of 248 million yuan, a turnover rate of 0.71%, and a total market capitalization of 34.285 billion yuan [1] - New City Holdings was established on June 30, 1996, and listed on December 4, 2015. The company is primarily engaged in real estate development and sales, with revenue composition as follows: 68.63% from real estate development and sales, 29.06% from property leasing and management, and 2.31% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Shanzheng Asset Management has one fund heavily invested in New City Holdings. The fund, Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A (018750), held 38,300 shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, accounting for 4.63% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The fund was established on December 26, 2023, with a latest scale of 10.9956 million yuan. Year-to-date return is 7.76%, ranking 6250 out of 8172 in its category; the one-year return is 36.91%, ranking 4672 out of 7980; and since inception, the return is 21.14% [2] - The fund manager, Zhuang Bo, has a tenure of 10 years and 186 days, with a total asset scale of 11.3079 million yuan. The best fund return during his tenure is 24.93%, while the worst is -3% [2]

Core Insights - The overall performance of real estate companies is stabilizing in the first half of 2025, with improved buyer confidence and expectations [1] - Brand recognition remains high among leading real estate firms, which are focusing on financial stability, core city strategies, and improved product offerings [1] Group 1: Brand Value and Market Position - The top three companies in brand value are China Overseas, Poly Developments, and China Resources, with values of 85.8 billion yuan, 61.4 billion yuan, and 58.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - The average sales premium rate for the top 10 brand companies in key cities is primarily in the range of 0% to 5%, with an average of 1.32% in 2024, down by 0.10 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Brand Importance - In 2025, 55.72% of consumers consider brand importance as very significant, while 40.56% view it as important, reflecting a 0.30 percentage point increase from the previous year [2] - 65.18% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for reputable brands, an increase of 3.11 percentage points from the previous year, with the highest willingness to pay a premium of 0% to 10% [2] Group 3: Business Strategies and Trends - Brand companies are diversifying their business models to navigate market cycles, with a focus on stable revenue from operational businesses [3] - The concept of "good housing" is emerging as a new trend, with companies developing comprehensive product systems to meet national standards [3] - AI technology is increasingly being integrated into various stages of the real estate industry, enhancing operational efficiency and providing new cost-reduction pathways [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company New City Holdings is planning to issue a new USD bond soon, likely next week, to refinance an existing bond maturing on October 15, with a current outstanding amount of $250 million and a coupon rate of 4.625% [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance - New City Holdings has successfully issued a USD bond earlier this year, marking it as the first private real estate company to break into the USD bond market in three years, with a previous issuance of $300 million in June [4]. - The upcoming bond issuance is significant as it represents the second USD bond for New City this year, indicating a strong signal in the current market environment [5]. - The timing of the bond issuance is strategic, coinciding with rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may positively influence market conditions [6]. Group 2: Financial Strategy - The company is prioritizing access to financing over the cost of financing, reflecting a broader industry trend where the ability to secure funds is critical for survival [8]. - New City Holdings has a diverse range of financing options, including bank loans, corporate bonds, and asset-backed securities, positioning it as a versatile player in the market [8]. - The establishment of a "Digital Asset Research Institute" suggests the company is exploring innovative financing methods, such as tokenizing real assets, which could transform the real estate sector into a more liquid market [9][10]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The company's efforts to issue bonds while exploring blockchain technology demonstrate a strong desire to adapt and survive in a challenging market [12]. - Although the tokenization initiative is still in its early stages, it indicates New City's commitment to finding new sources of capital and enhancing its market position [11][12].

Core Insights - New City Holdings' subsidiary, New City Construction Management, has achieved significant recognition in the real estate sector, winning multiple awards for its comprehensive capabilities and brand value in 2025 [1][2][4] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - New City Construction Management received accolades such as "Top 10 Comprehensive Ability in Real Estate Construction Management" and "Outstanding Commercial Construction Project" at the 2025 China Real Estate Brand Value Evaluation Conference [1] - The company was also recognized as a "Leading Brand in Real Estate Construction Management" and "Leading Government Construction Brand" at another industry forum, highlighting its strong brand value [1][2] Group 2: Business Growth and Strategy - Since its establishment in 2022, New City Construction Management has rapidly expanded, signing over 3.05 million square meters in new contracts in the first half of the year and managing a total of 1.9 million square meters across 115 projects nationwide [2][4] - The company focuses on a "light asset" construction management model, leveraging its operational efficiency and brand advantages to provide comprehensive solutions for clients [2][6] Group 3: Project Success and Market Position - The "He Mei Xi Yue" project exemplifies New City Construction Management's ability to create high-quality residential products, achieving sales of 120 million yuan despite premium pricing compared to competitors [5] - The company emphasizes collaboration with clients to enhance project value, focusing on quality control and innovative product design to meet the needs of high-net-worth individuals [4][6] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The construction management sector is evolving, with a shift towards brand, professional, and differentiated strategies, positioning companies like New City Holdings as key players in the market [6] - New City Holdings aims to integrate its commercial management and real estate development strengths to enhance its competitive edge in the current market landscape [6]

Group 1 - New housing prices in first-tier cities have seen a reduction in the rate of decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with overall new housing prices in 70 cities showing a year-on-year decline narrowing to 3.0% [1][10][24] - The number of cities with rising new housing prices month-on-month increased to 9 in August, compared to 6 in July, while the number of cities with year-on-year price increases remained at 5 [1][14][24] - In August, Shanghai led the new housing price increases with a month-on-month rise of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, making it the only first-tier city to achieve growth in both metrics [3][20][23] Group 2 - Second-hand housing prices in 70 cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [2][15][19] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices decreased by 5.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, while first-tier cities showed mixed results in their year-on-year performance [2][15][19] - In August, only one city, Changchun, saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, while all cities experienced year-on-year declines [2][19][20] Group 3 - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with expectations for continued small fluctuations in housing prices amid supportive fiscal and monetary policies [4][24] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit real estate companies that can cater to improving customer demand, as well as firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery [4][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [25] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.6%. The decline in second-hand home prices has expanded compared to July [6][9] - The number of cities with declining new home prices was 57, with an average decline of 0.41%, while 69 cities saw a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.59% [6][12] - First-tier cities experienced a narrowing decline in new home prices, down 0.1%, while second-hand home prices remained stable, with a decline of 1.0% [6][14] - The report emphasizes the need for the real estate market to stabilize and recover from the current downward pressure on prices, with a focus on policy adjustments in major cities to boost market sentiment [6][18] Summary by Sections Price Trends - New home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0% in August [6][14] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decline by 0.3% and second-hand prices drop by 0.6% [6][14] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.4% decline in new home prices, while second-hand prices remained stable [6][14] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the current price declines are the largest since November 2024, indicating significant downward pressure on the market [6][18] - Policy adjustments in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen aim to improve market conditions, although the sustainability of these effects remains uncertain [6][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as New Town Holdings and China Vanke [6] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that new home transaction volume has weakened year-on-year, while the Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market-oriented activation of idle land [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the real estate market is currently focused on stabilizing and recovering from previous downturns, with a key goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" [6][14] Summary by Sections New Home Market Tracking - In the week of September 6 to September 12, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, a decrease of 17.9% month-on-month and an increase of 3.0% year-on-year [17] - New home transaction area was 155.5 million square meters, down 15.9% month-on-month and down 2.9% year-on-year [25] - Inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 139.7 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [28][30] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 1,247.0 million square meters, down 19.4% month-on-month and down 19.1% year-on-year [61] - The total price of land transactions was 281.7 billion yuan, up 8.2% month-on-month and up 54.1% year-on-year [64] - The average land price was 2,259.1 yuan per square meter, up 34.3% month-on-month and up 90.6% year-on-year [63] Policy Overview - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced plans to refine standards for identifying inefficient land and promote the activation of idle land through market-oriented methods [3][102] - Local governments, such as Henan, have introduced new policies to increase housing subsidies and optimize housing fund policies [3][102] Company Performance - The absolute return of the real estate industry was 6.0%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the previous week [14] - The relative return compared to the CSI 300 was 4.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from the previous week [14] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the real estate sector was 31.53X, an increase of 1.48X from the previous week [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government reiterates the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the need to release demand for improvement through various measures, with specific policies being implemented in cities like Suzhou [1] Group 1: Real Estate Performance in Jiangsu - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Jiangsu had a sales threshold of 3.439 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 14,220 square meters [2][5] - The top three companies by sales revenue were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 8.825 billion yuan 2. Huafa Group with 8.214 billion yuan 3. Greentown China with 7.739 billion yuan [2][3] - In terms of sales area, the top three were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 340,800 square meters 2. Poly Developments with 321,700 square meters 3. New Town Holdings with 290,700 square meters [2][3] Group 2: Local Real Estate Companies - Jiangsu's local real estate companies showed strong performance, with the top 20 local firms having a sales threshold of 1.770 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 7,440 square meters [5] - Jinji Real Estate led in sales revenue with 5.266 billion yuan, while New Town Holdings topped in sales area with 290,700 square meters [5][6] Group 3: Land Market Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, Jiangsu launched 442 residential land plots, with a total planned construction area of 26.071 million square meters, and successfully sold 425 plots with a total area of 26.257 million square meters [7] - The average floor price across the province was 6,484 yuan per square meter, with August seeing an increase to 6,517 yuan per square meter [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - With the goal of stabilizing the market, new supportive policies are expected to be introduced, and the market is anticipated to become more active during the traditional peak sales season of September and October [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [2][3][34] Core Viewpoints - The investment side remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in investment from January to August 2025, and a more significant drop of 19.5% in August alone [1][20] - The sales side is also experiencing a downturn, with a cumulative sales area decrease of 4.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and a sharper decline of 10.6% in August [21][34] - Funding sources are showing a narrowing decline, with total funding sources down 8.0% year-on-year from January to August 2025, but domestic loans have turned positive [35] Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to August 2025, total real estate development investment reached 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline [3][20] - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [20][21] - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts of a 11.0% decline in investment, 15.1% in new construction, and 20.0% in completions for 2025 [20] Sales Side - Cumulative sales area from January to August 2025 was 570 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with a 10.6% drop in August [21][34] - The total sales amount for the same period was 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-on-year, with August sales amounting to 544.9 billion yuan, down 14.0% [21][34] - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in August compared to July [33][34] Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 6.4 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, down 8.0% year-on-year [35] - Domestic loans showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with August seeing a 1.1% rise [35] - The report indicates that while funding remains slightly tight, it is expected to improve gradually due to recent policy relaxations [35]