Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve has a significant probability of interest rate cuts within the year, with a 66.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut by December 2025, and a 33.1% chance of maintaining current rates [3]. Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, both export and import growth rates fell short of expectations, with exports (in USD) declining by 1.1% year-on-year, down from an 8.3% increase, while imports rose by 1.0%, down from a 7.4% increase [2]. - High-frequency indicators in transportation show a rebound in subway passenger volume [2]. - The industrial production index has shown improvement, with specific sectors like methanol, tires, and certain steel production seeing a rise, while soda ash has declined [2]. International Economic Context - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include Russia's response to potential U.S. nuclear tests and developments in the Ukraine conflict, as well as military considerations in the Middle East, such as the potential sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook remains a critical factor, with a notable probability of rate cuts by the end of 2025 [3]. Industry Investment Recommendations - Investment themes are categorized into three main directions: breakthroughs in Deepseek and AI technology, a "stronger gets stronger" market style during economic recovery, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [4]. - In the early stages of a bull market, funds tend to favor a few high-growth sectors, while later stages see a focus on main themes, making it harder for new funds to achieve profits [4]. - Cyclical stocks are highlighted for their low valuations and high beta characteristics, which may attract additional capital as the economic fundamentals improve [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the bond market lacked a clear trading direction, and institutional behaviors remained stable overall. Large banks continued to focus on net - buying short - term bonds within 3 years, but the intensity declined. Funds showed a strong preference for credit bonds. Rural commercial banks took advantage of the bond market adjustment to make small - scale purchases. Looking ahead, the year - end "rush to allocate" seasonal market may not occur due to various constraints on banks and insurance companies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Slight Increase in Bond Market Vitality Index - As of November 7, the bond market vitality index rose 4 pcts to 22% compared to October 31, and the 5D - MA increased 3 pcts to 25% [1][12]. - Upward indicators included the trading volume of the active 10Y China Development Bank bond / balance of 9 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds (rolling two - year percentile rose from 42% to 69%) and the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate (rolling two - year percentile rose from 20% to 35%) [1][13]. - Downward indicators included the implied tax rate of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond (reverse) (rolling two - year percentile remained at 7%), the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared to the average of the past 4 years (rolling two - year percentile rose from 61% to 18%), and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds (rolling two - year percentile dropped from 84.0% to 82.1%) [1][14][16]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: Continued Volatility in the Bond Market, Overall Stability in Institutional Behaviors 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Intensity and Bond Selection: Large Banks Continuously Buy Short - Term Bonds, Funds Focus on Credit Bonds - This week, the order of net buying intensity in the cash bond market was: other products > insurance > wealth management > large banks > money market funds > others > funds > rural financial institutions > foreign - funded banks. The order of net selling intensity was: city commercial banks > joint - stock commercial banks > securities firms. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying intensity was: insurance > funds > other products > rural commercial banks > others > foreign - funded banks, and the order of net selling intensity was: large banks > joint - stock commercial banks > securities firms > city commercial banks > wealth management [22]. - The main bond types of various institutions were: large banks focused on 5 - 7Y interest - rate bonds; rural commercial banks focused on interest - rate bonds over 10Y; insurance focused on 1 - 3Y credit bonds and 7 - 10Y other bonds; funds focused on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; wealth management and other products had no obvious main bond types [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio: General Reduction in Duration of Various Types of Bond Funds - As of November 7, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.08 years and 0.09 years respectively compared to October 31, reaching 4.09 years and 3.75 years, and were at the 82.4% and 82.2% rolling two - year percentiles respectively. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds were - 0.13 years, + 0.01 years, and - 0.09 years respectively, reaching 5.04 years, 4.39 years, and 3.28 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds decreased by 0.72 years and - 0.01 years respectively, reaching 1.90 years and 0.91 years [38][42]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio: Large Banks Concentrate on Buying Interest - Rate Bonds within 3 Years - **Increased Primary Subscription Demand for Treasury Bonds and Policy - Financial Bonds, and Increased Demand for Ultra - Long Bonds**: This week, the weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds continued to rise from 2.93 to 3.13 times and from 3.21 to 3.25 times respectively. Among them, the weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds with a maturity of 10Y and above increased from 2.45 times to 5.08 times and from 3.02 times to 3.52 times respectively [56]. - **Large Banks**: As of November 7, the cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year reached 9173 billion yuan, exceeding the 8746 billion yuan at the end of November last year. Although large banks faced pressure from interest - rate risk indicator assessments, the constraints were expected to ease in the short term [62]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: After increasing net selling of cash bonds in October, rural commercial banks made small - scale purchases this week. As of November 7, the cumulative net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds this year was 9616 billion yuan and 805 billion yuan respectively [72][74]. - **Insurance**: As of November 7, the ratio of the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds this year to the cumulative premium income reached 52.96%, significantly higher than 44.51% at the end of November last year. The ratio of the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds to the cumulative issuance of government bonds over 10Y was 31.59%, significantly higher than 26.32% at the end of November last year [79]. - **Wealth Management**: Since June, the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds by wealth management has continued to rise, significantly higher than the levels of the past three years. As of November 7, the cumulative net purchase of bonds over 10Y this year was 1712 billion yuan [87]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: Better Performance of Credit Bond Funds in the Past Week - Since October, the scale growth of stock funds and bond funds has been limited, with bond funds growing more slowly than stock funds. This week, 40.64 billion yuan of new bond funds were established, a significant decline from the previous week but at a relatively high level compared to October as a whole [91]. - In terms of bond fund performance, the net values of most interest - rate bond funds declined in the past week, while credit bond funds showed stronger resilience. The median annualized returns of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds in the past week were - 5.91%, - 4.57%, and 0.47% respectively, and most credit bond funds had positive returns in the past three months [91].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that industries with prolonged weak performance tend to exhibit a "prolonged decline" characteristic, with defensive sectors like environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation more likely to underperform in the long term [1][2] Industry Analysis - Industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years and are nearing their historical longest underperformance periods include beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services [4] - The construction materials, electrical equipment, and food and beverage sectors have been underperforming for a duration close to their historical longest periods, with a difference of about one year [4] - Industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years but have a higher probability of outperforming in the fourth year include food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, social services, and biomedicine [2][4] Defensive Sector Characteristics - The public utility sector exhibits a typical public utility attribute, characterized by weak cycles and low beta, showing low elasticity during bull markets, as evidenced in the bull markets of 2006-2007, Q1-Q3 of 2009, and H2 of 2014 to H1 of 2015 [3] - The trend of negative excess returns in public utility sectors is attributed to small-cap stocks lacking both offensive characteristics in bull markets and stable dividend attributes, leading to a divergence between industry leaders and small-cap stocks [3] - The independent market performance of leading stocks in the public utility and environmental sectors since 2017 is driven by the revaluation of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, with stable earnings and high dividends contributing to a stronger "moat" and scale effect for these leaders [3] Statistical Insights - An analysis of the Shenwan first-level industries from 2007 to 2025 reveals that the probability of an industry underperforming for three consecutive years is inversely related to the conditional probability of it outperforming in the fourth year [2]

Group 1 - The company will hold an investor briefing on November 12, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 AM [2][4] - The briefing will take place online at the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center [4][5] - Investors can submit questions from November 10 to November 11, 2025, before 4:00 PM [2][7] Group 2 - The briefing will focus on the company's Q3 2025 operational results and financial indicators [3][6] - Key personnel attending the meeting include the Chairman, President, Independent Directors, and CFO [6] - Investors can participate in the briefing by logging into the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center [7][9]

Market Overview - On November 7, the Hubei state-owned enterprise reform sector declined by 0.19% compared to the previous trading day, with LIGONG GUANGKE leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the Hubei state-owned enterprise reform sector included: - QUANTANG HEAVY INDUSTRY: closed at 12.83, up 2.89% with a trading volume of 161,200 shares and a turnover of 206 million yuan [1] - XIANGLONG ELECTRIC: closed at 14.01, up 2.79% with a trading volume of 122,600 shares and a turnover of 171 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - LIGONG GUANGKE: closed at 29.12, down 2.38% with a trading volume of 48,400 shares and a turnover of 140 million yuan [2] - HUASHU HOLDING: closed at 3.68, down 1.87% with a trading volume of 317,500 shares and a turnover of 117 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The Hubei state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a net outflow of 421 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 499 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows included: - ZHONGBAI GROUP: net inflow of 11.70 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 6.74 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - XIANGLONG ELECTRIC: net inflow of 7.28 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 1.91 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

天风证券股份有限公司 证券代码：601162 证券简称：天风证券 公告编号：2025-068号 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 12 日（星期三）10:00-11:00； 会 议 召 开 地 点 ： 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 上 证 路 演 中 心 （ 网 址 ： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/）； 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动； 投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 10 日（星期一）至 11 月 11 日（星期二）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过天风证券股份 有限公司（以下简称"公司"）邮箱（dongban@tfzq.com）进行提问。公司 将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 公司已于 2025 年 10 月 31 日发布公司 2025 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投 资者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况 ...

Group 1 - Kong Rong, former co-director of Tianfeng Securities' Global Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, will join Guolian Minsheng Securities as the vice president of the research institute and overseas chief analyst [2] - Kong Rong has 15 years of experience in securities research, previously working at Everbright Securities and Guoyuan Securities, and has been ranked second in the New Fortune Best Analyst Awards for overseas research from 2021 to 2024 [2] - Kong has focused on TMT, artificial intelligence, and global technology supply chains, covering both Hong Kong and overseas markets [2] Group 2 - Prior to Kong's joining, three analysts from her team moved to Minsheng Securities, indicating a trend of talent migration within the industry [3] - Guolian Minsheng Securities is experiencing strong growth post-merger, with a reported revenue of 6.038 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 201.17%, and a net profit of 1.763 billion yuan, up 345.30% [3] - The merged entity has significantly improved its market position, ranking fifth in the industry for commission income from fund distribution, with 460 million yuan in revenue [3] Group 3 - The company aims to enhance its research capabilities and market share through differentiated and forward-looking deep research, while also focusing on industry expert-type research [4] - The integration of Kong Rong is expected to strengthen the overseas and forward-looking industry research capabilities of Guolian Minsheng Securities [4] - The company plans to deepen its layout in key industry chains and enhance its research empowerment for various business sectors and government departments [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the appointment of Kong Rong as the Vice President of the Research Institute at Guolian Minsheng Securities, indicating a strategic move to enhance the company's research capabilities [1] - Kong Rong has over 15 years of experience in securities research and has been recognized as the second-best overseas analyst in the New Fortune Best Analyst Awards for four consecutive years from 2021 to 2024 [1] - The integration of research operations between Guolian Minsheng Securities and Minsheng Securities is nearing completion, suggesting a consolidation of resources and expertise [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for spandex is expected to continue growing due to the expansion of application areas and the increasing proportion of spandex in downstream fabrics [1] Group 1: Demand Trends - In recent years, the demand for spandex has shown two major trends: continuous expansion of application areas and an increasing proportion of spandex in downstream fabrics [1] - The downstream demand for spandex is expected to remain stable in 2024, with further growth anticipated as applications expand [1] Group 2: Differentiated Spandex - Differentiated spandex is expanding its application areas from simple knitwear to various fields such as automotive interiors, medical bandages, health products, and artificial organs [1] - The production proportion of differentiated spandex in China is approximately 23%, while developed countries have a differentiation rate as high as 60% [1] - The application of differentiated spandex is expected to open up broader demand space [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current expansion phase of the spandex industry is nearing its end, with future capacity additions concentrated among leading companies, despite a low demand environment in 2024 [1][4]. Industry Overview - The global spandex production capacity is projected to grow from 203,000 tons in 2000 to 1,750,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.4%, and over 90% of this capacity is concentrated in Asia [3]. - China's spandex industry has experienced rapid growth, expanding from 89,000 tons in 2003 to 1,350,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 14% [4]. Demand Trends - China's spandex consumption is on the rise, with apparent consumption increasing from 121,000 tons in 2005 to 1,012,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.8% [5]. - The demand for spandex is driven by trends in fashion and comfort, with applications expanding into various sectors, including automotive interiors and medical supplies [5]. Production Cost Structure - The cost of raw materials accounts for approximately 40% of spandex production costs, with PTMEG and pure MDI being the primary raw materials [2]. - The control of non-raw material costs is a significant source of competitive advantage for spandex manufacturers [2].