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天风证券:维持复宏汉霖“买入”评级 目标价上调至120.87港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 08:49
Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Junshi Biosciences (02696), projecting total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 5.873 billion, 5.970 billion, and 7.125 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 1.64%, and 19.36% respectively, and net profit attributable to shareholders to be 827 million, 797 million, and 1.122 billion yuan, keeping previous forecasts unchanged [1] Group 1 - HLX43 demonstrates high efficacy and low toxicity, with outstanding data for EGFR wild-type NSCLC presented at the WCLC conference [1][2] - The overall objective response rate (ORR) for evaluable patients is 37.0%, with a disease control rate (DCR) of 87.0% [2] - In a subgroup analysis of EGFR wild-type non-squamous NSCLC patients, the confirmed ORR reaches 46.7%, indicating HLX43's anti-tumor activity is not dependent on PD-L1 expression levels [2][3] Group 2 - HLX07 shows impressive efficacy, potentially providing a new approach for first-line treatment of EGFR high-expressing squamous NSCLC [4] - In a phase II dose exploration study, the high-dose group achieved a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 17.4 months, significantly higher than the standard therapy's mPFS of around 7 months [4] - Safety profiles for both HLX43 and HLX07 are reported to be manageable, with most treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) being controllable [4]
天风证券:维持复宏汉霖(02696)“买入”评级 目标价上调至120.87港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-16 08:48
Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Junshi Biosciences (02696), projecting total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 5.873 billion, 5.970 billion, and 7.125 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.60%, 1.64%, and 19.36% respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at 827 million, 797 million, and 1.122 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - HLX43 demonstrates high efficacy and low toxicity, with outstanding data for EGFR wild-type NSCLC presented at the WCLC conference [1][3] - In a study involving 56 NSCLC patients, the overall objective response rate (ORR) was 37.0%, and the disease control rate (DCR) was 87.0% [2] - Among patients with prior multiple lines of treatment, HLX43 showed significant advantages, particularly in EGFR wild-type non-squamous NSCLC patients, achieving a cORR of 46.7% [2] Group 2 - Safety profile of HLX43 is favorable, with the most common grade ≥3 treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) being anemia and leukopenia, both at 19.6% [2] - The incidence of grade ≥3 thrombocytopenia is low at 3.6%, indicating manageable hematological toxicity [2] - A total of 21.4% of patients experienced immune-related adverse events (irAEs), with most being manageable [2] Group 3 - HLX07 shows promising efficacy in first-line treatment for EGFR high-expressing squamous NSCLC, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 17.4 months in the high-dose group [4] - The standard mPFS for first-line squamous NSCLC therapies is around 7 months, making HLX07's results noteworthy [4] - Safety during treatment was reported to be good, with manageable treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) [4]
研报掘金丨天风证券:维持百润股份“买入“评级,预计Q3预调鸡尾酒新品将持续贡献增量
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-16 07:59
Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that Bairun Co., Ltd. is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, primarily due to the adjustment period of its pre-mixed cocktails, although whisky contributions remain positive [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Bairun's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses are projected to be 752 million, 208 million, and 178 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 8.98%, 10.85%, and 22.61% [1] Product Development - The company is continuously improving its "358" product matrix, having launched jelly wine in June with positive sales feedback, and is set to introduce a light enjoyment series of 12-degree pre-mixed cocktails in August [1] Future Outlook - Despite slight pressure on terminal demand, the profit forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 revised to 770 million and 870 million yuan respectively, and a new forecast for 2027 set at 990 million yuan [1] - The rating for Bairun Co., Ltd. remains "Buy" [1]
研报掘金丨天风证券:维持立高食品“买入”评级,收入增速有望延续,毛利率或持稳
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-16 07:45
Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that Lihigh Food's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 171 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 82 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [1] - The company anticipates that the revenue growth will continue due to seasonal demand in the baking sector, new product launches, and expansion in tea beverage channels during the upcoming holidays [1] Growth Drivers - The medium to long-term growth is supported by several factors: 1. Domestic substitution of cream products 2. Expansion of dining and new retail channels 3. Deep processing of dairy products [1] Profit Forecast - The expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 320 million, 360 million, and 400 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 20%, 12%, and 10% [1] - The previous forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were 300 million and 370 million yuan, with growth rates of 9% and 24% [1] Valuation - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 25X, 22X, and 20X respectively [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]
探底回升,连续13日净流入!证券ETF龙头(159993)收涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 07:34
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437), with mixed results among constituent stocks, where Shichuang Securities (601136) led with a 6.27% increase [1] - The Securities ETF Leader (159993) saw a slight increase of 0.15%, with a latest price of 1.35 yuan and a net subscription of 31.5 million units, marking 13 consecutive days of net inflow [1] - The latest ranking of the top 100 public fund distribution agencies shows that 57 securities firms made the list, with a significant advantage in the distribution of stock index funds, holding a total scale of 1.08 trillion yuan, accounting for 55% [1] Group 2 - According to data as of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) include Dongfang Caifu (300059), CITIC Securities (600030), Huatai Securities (601688), and others, with the top ten stocks accounting for 79.16% of the index [2] - Guojin Securities noted that in the first half of 2025, the overall sales scale of public funds by sales institutions showed a quarter-on-quarter increase, with securities firms' market share in non-cash and mixed stock funds rising [1][2] - The market share of securities firms in stock index funds remains above 50%, indicating a solid core position and promising future prospects [1]
研报掘金丨天风证券:贝达药业核心业务稳健增长,维持“增持”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-16 06:32
Core Viewpoint - Benda Pharmaceutical's net profit for H1 2025 is projected to be 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.53%, primarily due to increased depreciation and amortization expenses impacting current profits [1] Financial Performance - The company's EBITDA stands at 498 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.10%, indicating stable growth in core business operations [1] - The decline in net profit is attributed to rising costs, while the core business remains robust [1] Product Development and Market Position - Benda Pharmaceutical's drug sales are steadily increasing, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the lung cancer treatment market [1] - The first-line treatment of the third-generation EGFRTKI, Beifu Tini, is set to benefit from its inclusion in the medical insurance catalog, marking a significant milestone [1] - The company has received approval for postoperative adjuvant therapy indications, further expanding its treatment offerings [1] Future Prospects - Two KRAS-targeted drugs were showcased at the 2025 AACR, indicating promising future developments in the pipeline [1] - The company is actively enhancing its innovative product portfolio in the lung cancer sector and pursuing external collaborations, including the approval of plant-derived albumin for market entry [1] - The investment rating remains "Buy," reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [1]
固定收益专题:30年,暂不言顶
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-16 04:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market maintains a volatile trend, with the key being the upper and lower limits of the range. For the 30Y Treasury bond rate, the current top position is not apparent, and the crucial factor is when the allocation buyers will enter the market [1][9]. - The ultra - long bonds lack the support of allocation buyers and it is difficult to resolve this issue in the short term. Meanwhile, the trading buyers still have the momentum and space to sell ultra - long bonds. The ultra - long bond rate is not at its peak, but it doesn't mean a bearish outlook [1][2][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Ultra - long bonds lack allocation buyers and it is difficult to solve in the short term 1.1 Old problems remain unsolved: The bond - buying efforts of city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and insurance companies have been continuously weak this year - City commercial banks and rural commercial banks: Their liability expansion has slowed down due to the migration of deposits to non - bank sectors. Many have OCI floating losses, and adjusting bond positions would turn floating losses into real losses, thus limiting their bond - buying space. Also, their business focus has shifted back to deposit and loan operations [10][13][19]. - Insurance companies: The expansion of their liability side has slowed down due to the reduction of the predetermined interest rate of insurance products. The investment income from the bond market may not cover their high - cost liabilities, making the equity market more attractive [21]. 1.2 New problems have emerged: The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds has increased, and the "interest rate risk" of large banks has been continuously accumulating - Bank book interest rate risk: It measures the risk that interest rate changes cause losses to the economic value and overall income of the bank book. Banks need to conduct regular stress tests, and systemically important banks' maximum economic value change loss in six scenarios cannot exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital [22]. - Reasons for concern this year: There is a resonance of greater supply pressure of ultra - long bonds, stronger selling pressure, and weak allocation buyers. The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds has been rapidly accumulating since the second half of last year, and the issuance rhythm has accelerated this year. At the same time, the selling pressure has concentratedly emerged this year [23]. - Reasons for large banks' bond - buying in the current spot data: Not all banks face interest rate risk problems; buying short - term bonds has little impact on interest rate risk indicators; some banks can still buy bonds as "market - makers" [28]. - Buying short - term bonds cannot hedge interest rate risk: It only affects the slope of the increase in interest rate risk, not the direction [3][35]. 1.3 Difficult to relieve in the short term: Discussion on three paths to relieve "interest rate risk" - Supply - side approach: Reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds is difficult because the government bond issuance plan is already determined and related to debt - resolution plans. The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds may persist until 2028 [36]. - Demand - side approach: Supplementing bank capital to improve the carrying capacity is not feasible in the short term, and it will further increase the bond market supply pressure [36]. - Monetary policy coordination approach: The central bank's purchase of bonds is mainly for "base money injection and liquidity management", so the purchase term may not be too long [37]. 2. Trading buyers still have the momentum and space to sell ultra - long bonds - Last week, funds net - sold 1128 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, including 357 billion yuan of bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, the fourth - highest weekly net - selling volume this year. The reasons include the release of the draft for comments on fee adjustment, which increased the concern of bond funds about redemptions; the risk accumulation caused by the duration - extension behavior at the end of August; and the asymmetric stock - bond linkage, which led to the successive selling of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds [38]. 3. The ultra - long bond rate is not at its peak, but it doesn't mean a bearish outlook - The bond market is still in a volatile range, but the upper limit of the interest - rate range has been extended. The extension is due to the expected redemptions of bond funds after the fund fee reform and the delayed entry of allocation buyers caused by the decline in the carrying capacity of large banks [43]. - The 10Y Treasury bond rate has no obvious resistance in the range of 1.80% - 1.90%, and the 30Y Treasury bond rate has no apparent top. When judging the allocation value of ultra - long bonds, the key is when the allocation buyers will enter the market [44].
富特科技:接受天风证券调研
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-15 13:37
每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——重大突破!中国这款新药,中美官方都认定有突破性疗效!世界肺癌大会 沸腾了 (记者 曾健辉) 2024年1至12月份,富特科技的营业收入构成为:新能源占比100.0%。 截至发稿,富特科技市值为55亿元。 每经AI快讯,富特科技(SZ 301607,收盘价:35.46元)发布公告称,2025年9月15日,富特科技接受 天风证券调研,公司董事会秘书李岩,证券事务代表张佳意参与接待,并回答了投资者提出的问题。 ...
天风证券-安井食品-603345-产品创新驱动增长,渠道定制化加速渗透,静待旺季反弹-250915
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 12:37
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite stable sales growth in certain product lines [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 676 million yuan, down 15.79% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached 4.005 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.69%, but net profit fell by 22.74% to 281 million yuan [1]. - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows frozen prepared foods at 3.759 billion yuan (down 1.9%), frozen dishes at 2.416 billion yuan (up 9.4%), and other categories showing mixed results, with significant declines in certain segments [1]. Group 2: Channel Performance - Revenue from various channels in H1 2025 included 6.043 billion yuan from distributors (down 1.2%), 555 million yuan from direct sales (up 7.2%), 423 million yuan from supermarkets (down 1.8%), and 583 million yuan from new retail and e-commerce (up 20.9%) [1]. - The company is focusing on channel expansion into lower-tier markets and enhancing collaboration with major retail clients for customized product offerings [1]. Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 20.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.9%, down 1.9 percentage points [2]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin decreased to 18%, a decline attributed to rising raw material costs, particularly for shrimp and fish paste [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company anticipates a potential recovery in revenue growth in H2 2025 due to seasonal demand and new product launches, with a focus on innovation and efficiency in the long term [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 15.9 billion, 16.8 billion, and 18 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.47 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.72 billion yuan [3].
研报掘金丨天风证券:维持水星家纺“买入”评级,大单品联动效应逐步显现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 12:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Mercury Home Textile's net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of the year is 140 million, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 50 million, down 2.7% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a sales gross margin of 43.9%, which is an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Mercury Home Textile focuses on "healthy sleep" and "functional" selling points, utilizing a segmented design to alleviate neck and shoulder pressure, and emphasizes high cost-performance and the concept of "smart sleep" [1] Group 2 - The company has upgraded its ice silk quilt over five years, continuously optimizing through material, functionality, and health endorsements, creating a gradient price range that covers various consumer levels [1] - Mercury drives growth in summer quilt categories through technological upgrades and extends its ecosystem to related products such as cool quilts and silk quilts, utilizing high-frequency marketing to capture consumer mindshare [1] - The company employs a "direct sales + franchise" dual model, covering core business districts nationwide and penetrating lower-tier markets, while deepening terminal engagement through experiential marketing to meet the consumption upgrade needs of different cities [1] Group 3 - Considering the strong performance of major products, the company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 and maintains a "buy" rating [1]