1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly, and the reconstruction of its downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices [2][94][95] - Attention can be paid to the fluctuation opportunities of periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, but it is necessary to grasp the trading main line and take timely profit - taking for long positions [2][93][95] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cambodia Rubber Producing Area Supply - Demand Status and Future Development Trends 3.1.1 Producing Area Basic Overview: Resource Endowment and Industry Positioning - Agriculture is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia's economy, and natural rubber is regarded as an important strategic crop. The Cambodian government hopes that the rubber industry will bring sustainable benefits to all stakeholders [4] - Cambodia is located in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula in Asia, with a tropical monsoon climate suitable for rubber growth. The top four rubber - producing provinces in 2023 accounted for 67.89% of the planting area [5] - The earliest rubber planting in Cambodia dates back to 1910. After independence, the rubber planting industry reached its peak in 1967. After being damaged by the civil war, it gradually recovered. Currently, Cambodia is the seventh - largest rubber - producing country [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Supply**: The rubber production in Cambodia grew rapidly from 2010 - 2020, with an average compound growth rate of 23.52%, and the growth rate decreased after 2021, with a rate of only 3.43% from 2021 - 2024. The single - yield has been steadily increasing since 2019 and reached the median level of Southeast Asian producing countries in 2024 [20][21] - **Demand**: Currently, Cambodia's rubber export accounts for a large proportion, mainly exporting raw materials to Vietnam. With the production of Chinese - funded tire enterprises in Cambodia, the local rubber is expected to be in short supply, the direct rubber export volume will decline, and the tire export will increase rapidly. The tire export is mainly to the United States [33][42][45] 3.1.3 Development Bottlenecks and Future Trends - **Development Bottlenecks**: The rubber industry in Cambodia faces problems such as labor shortage, farmers' conversion to other crops, insufficient infrastructure construction, and unstable power supply, which may limit the growth of local tire production capacity [48][51] - **Future Outlook**: From 2026 - 2030, the planting area is expected to continue to grow with the upward shift of rubber prices, the growth rate of the harvested area may slow down, and the single - yield will steadily increase, with a slight increase in production. The government plans to increase the harvested area to about 331,000 hectares, the single - yield to about 1400 kg/ha, and the production to about 463,000 tons by 2030 [53][54][55] 3.2 Review and Comments on Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Incidents 3.2.1 Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Timeline and Market Response - **2008 - 2011 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict**: Rooted in historical territorial disputes, especially over the Preah Vihear Temple. There were several small - scale conflicts during this period, and the impact on the market was limited by macro - factors [60][61][62] - **2025 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict**: There were multiple rounds of conflicts, including sporadic and large - scale ones. The market showed different reactions each time, but the impact on the market was generally short - lived. The market gradually became more rational in evaluating the impact of the conflicts [70][74][83] 3.2.2 Impact of Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict on Rubber Producing Area Tapping Operations - The conflict mainly affects rubber production in terms of the scope of influence, impact time, and foreign labor. The conflict in December 2025, which lasted for a long time and occurred during the production season, had a greater impact on production. The conflict also led to the continuous loss of foreign labor in Thailand's 7 border provinces and Cambodian - origin foreign labor across Thailand [86][87][90] 3.3 Supply Expected to Increase Slightly, Pay Attention to Geopolitical Fluctuation Opportunities in the Short Term - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly. The reconstruction of the downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices. The periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia may bring market fluctuation opportunities [93][94][95]

2026 年，轮胎行业迎来了戴维斯双击的机会，预计整个板块有翻倍空间。业 绩和估值是主要驱动力。业绩方面，预计贡献约 30%的市值弹性，核心在于量 和利润率的提升。量增主要来自于中国轮胎企业在海外市场的扩张，目前中国 轮胎在海外市场份额仍小于 20%，未来 3-5 年乃至 5-10 年将持续增加产能。 例如，中策、赛轮和森麒麟等公司将在 2026 年分别有多个工厂投产，这将显 著提升产量并带来新的业绩增量。 利润率方面，美国市场自 2025 年 4 月加税 后，税率分摊在 3%到 100%之间。预计 2026 年将逐步通过涨价转嫁给终端 消费者，从而修复和提升利润率。而欧洲市场则由于对中国半钢胎实施反倾销 措施，使得国内小规模生产商无法直接出口到欧洲，这为头部企业提供了提价 机会，有望进一步提高利润率。 估值方面，中国高端配套业务将在 2026 年迎 来初始元年，这不仅使配套业务从不赚钱转变为盈利，还打开了新的成长空间。 此外，中国企业正在进行全球散点式布局，如墨西哥、摩洛哥、塞尔维亚等地， 以规避贸易政策变化带来的风险。这些因素共同推动板块估值从过去 10 倍提 升至 15-20 倍及以上。 三角轮胎 20 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese rubber tire industry is projected to experience modest growth in production, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in December 2025 and a cumulative growth of 0.9% for the entire year [1]. Industry Overview - The total production of rubber tire outer tires in China reached 10,656 million units in December 2025 [1]. - The cumulative production for the year 2025 was 120,736.6 million units [1]. Market Research - The report titled "2026-2032 China Rubber Tire Industry Market Supply and Demand Situation and Development Prospects" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1][2]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been dedicated to industry research for over a decade, providing comprehensive industry solutions and insights for investment decisions [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Triangle Tire has shown a positive stock performance with a 9.94% increase year-to-date and a market capitalization of 12.568 billion yuan as of January 28 [1] - As of January 28, Triangle Tire's stock price was 15.71 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.01 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.81% [1] - The company primarily engages in the research, manufacturing, and sales of various tires, with tire sales accounting for 99.37% of its main business revenue [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, Triangle Tire reported a total revenue of 7.32 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.83% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 682 million yuan, down 22.77% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.664 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.184 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3 - The number of shareholders for Triangle Tire as of September 30 was 39,400, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 3.14% to 20,294 shares [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 12.3188 million shares, a decrease of 37,900 shares compared to the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the establishment of its first overseas production facility in Cambodia, which will enhance its capacity to penetrate the European and American markets, leading to a simultaneous increase in volume and profit [4][8]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a projected revenue of 10,422 million yuan for 2023, despite a slight decline in subsequent years, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic advantages, including proximity to raw material sources, competitive labor costs, and favorable trade policies that will facilitate market expansion [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10,422 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,396 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a significant increase of 89% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.75 yuan for 2023, with a gradual decline in the following years before recovering to 1.50 yuan by 2027 [5][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 99 billion yuan in 2025, 104 billion yuan in 2026, and 114 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 9 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 13 billion yuan respectively [10][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 2025 to 19% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company maintains a strong global presence, with nearly 60% of its sales coming from international markets, supported by a marketing network that spans over 180 countries [8]. - The report compares the company's valuation metrics favorably against peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 11.1x for 2026, which is lower than the average for comparable companies [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the establishment of its first overseas production facility in Cambodia, which will enhance its capacity to penetrate the European and American markets, leading to a simultaneous increase in volume and profit [7][8]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a projected revenue of 10,422 million yuan for 2023, despite a slight decline in subsequent years, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic advantages, including proximity to raw material sources, competitive labor costs, and favorable trade policies that will support its expansion efforts [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10,422 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13%. However, revenues are expected to decline by 3% in 2024 and 2025, before recovering to 10,406 million yuan in 2026 and 11,435 million yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,396 million yuan in 2023, with a significant year-on-year growth of 89%. This is expected to decline to 1,103 million yuan in 2024 and 949 million yuan in 2025, before rebounding to 1,121 million yuan in 2026 and 1,329 million yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with gross margins projected to increase from 17.9% in 2024 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost reductions [10][11]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company maintains a strong global presence, with nearly 60% of its sales coming from international markets, supported by a marketing network that spans over 180 countries [8]. - The establishment of the Cambodian factory is expected to produce 700,000 tires annually, with a significant portion allocated for high-performance tires aimed at the European and American markets [9][10]. - The report compares the company's valuation metrics favorably against peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 11.1x for 2026, which is lower than the average for comparable companies, indicating potential for growth [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The development of green tires is rapidly increasing in China, driven by policies, market demand, and technological advancements, with sales expected to exceed 160 million units by 2025, marking a significant shift towards sustainability in the tire industry [1][12]. Group 1: Overview of the Green Tire Industry - Green tires are defined as products that meet environmental protection requirements throughout their lifecycle, causing minimal harm to the ecosystem and human health while consuming fewer resources [2]. - The national standard GB/T 40718-2021 outlines specific criteria for passenger and commercial vehicle tires, focusing on resource, energy, environmental, and quality attributes [2]. Group 2: Significance of Green Tire Development - Green tires help reduce automotive emissions, with a potential decrease in rolling resistance by 22%-35%, leading to a 3%-8% reduction in fuel consumption and CO emissions [5]. - The production of waste tires is a growing concern, with approximately 37 million waste tires generated in 2024, highlighting the need for sustainable solutions to mitigate environmental pollution [7]. - Green tires reduce dependency on natural rubber and petroleum-based materials, enhancing supply chain resilience through the use of alternative materials [8]. Group 3: Current Market Status of Green Tires - The demand for green tires in China has surged, with sales surpassing 100 million units in 2023 and projected to reach 138 million in 2024 and 160 million in 2025 [12]. - The penetration rate of green tires has increased significantly, reaching 23% of total sales in 2024, an 8 percentage point increase from 2020 [14]. - By the end of 2025, there will be 18 certified green tire products in China, involving major companies such as Sumitomo Rubber, Zhongce Rubber, and Qingdao Doublestar [16]. Group 4: Future Trends in the Green Tire Industry - The integration of AI and machine learning is transforming tire design and production, enabling more efficient material selection and performance testing [17]. - The green transformation at manufacturing facilities is becoming a critical area for industry reform, focusing on energy efficiency and reduced emissions [18]. - Stricter performance and environmental standards for green tires are anticipated, pushing companies to enhance product quality and innovation [19]. - The rise of electric vehicles is driving demand for specialized green tires designed for their unique performance requirements, with significant R&D investments expected in this area [20].

证券日报网讯1月26日，三角轮胎（601163）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司在海外销售的市 场布局较为均衡，直接出口欧盟市场；公司在欧盟地区设立了分支机构，主要负责客户与市场的维护及 技术服务等工作。 ...

Tire Industry Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - The tire sector is expected to grow nearly 30%, benefiting from low raw material prices and high-end vehicle partnerships, with valuations projected to rise from below 10x to 15-20x or even higher [1][2] Key Companies and Their Performance Hai'an - Hai'an is a global leader in tire production, particularly in the giant tire segment, and is expected to achieve approximately 1.5 billion yuan in performance growth by 2028-2030, warranting a 15-20x PE valuation [1][9] - The company has announced new production capacity in Russia, significantly increasing its performance elasticity [4][8] - Hai'an's competitive advantage lies in its high technical barriers and cost-effectiveness, with a price premium of 60% to double compared to foreign products [9][10] - The company is projected to have a profit of 1.5-1.7 billion yuan by 2028-2030, with a strong growth outlook [19] Triangle Tire - Triangle Tire has established a new production capacity of 7 million tires in Cambodia, expected to contribute about 20% performance elasticity within 1-2 years, with valuations anticipated to rise from 10x to 15-20x [1][12][20] - The company has a strong cash flow position with 10 billion yuan in cash, indicating a solid foundation for international expansion [20] - Triangle's recent announcement of overseas production marks a significant strategic shift for the company [21] Zhongce Rubber - Zhongce Rubber is recognized as the largest tire leader, with a market capitalization expected to reach 80-100 billion yuan [3] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in Europe and the U.S., with new factories planned in Thailand and Indonesia, expected to yield about 30% performance elasticity by 2026 [13][14] - The market perception of Zhongce is gradually improving, with significant growth potential anticipated in high-end vehicle partnerships [16][17] Market Catalysts - Upcoming catalysts include the resolution of the European anti-dumping case in June, quarterly earnings releases, and announcements regarding high-end vehicle partnerships, which are expected to enhance industry growth and performance certainty [5][6] High-End Vehicle Partnerships - The breakthrough in high-end vehicle partnerships is expected to significantly impact the tire industry by improving profitability and enhancing brand strength in the replacement market, potentially leading to a shift from foreign to domestic brands [6] Investment Recommendations - Current recommendations focus on Zhongce, Hai'an, and Triangle, with Zhongce and Hai'an suitable for long-term investment due to their strong fundamentals, while Triangle's international expansion presents significant growth potential [15][24] - Additional recommendations may include Sailun and Senqilin, with a focus on their performance as market conditions evolve [25]

Core Viewpoint - Triangle Tire's investment of 3.219 billion yuan to establish a production base in Cambodia for 7 million high-performance radial tires annually marks a significant step in the globalization strategy of the Chinese tire industry, transitioning from product export to global production operations [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Strategic Importance - The investment is a crucial move for Triangle Tire to address current challenges and plan for long-term development, primarily driven by the need to overcome trade barriers [2]. - The project aims to enhance the company's global market presence while creating a differentiated capacity network alongside domestic factories, thereby increasing production resilience [2]. - The choice of Cambodia is based on strategic considerations, including proximity to natural rubber resources, reduced core procurement costs, and favorable investment policies such as tax exemptions [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Globalization - Triangle Tire's expansion reflects a broader trend in the Chinese tire industry, with over 20 companies establishing more than 40 factories across 14 countries by the end of 2025, indicating a shift towards a "dual-base" or "multi-base" model [3]. - Southeast Asia is emerging as a preferred region for Chinese tire companies due to its unique resource advantages and geographical benefits, while other regions like South America, Africa, and Europe are also being targeted for future expansion [3]. - The industry's focus is evolving from merely avoiding trade barriers and cost considerations to penetrating demand markets and mitigating risks [3]. Group 3: Evolution of Business Model - Chinese tire companies are transitioning from a model of "selling products" to a comprehensive output of "capacity + brand + technology," fostering an ecosystem in Southeast Asia that integrates upstream and downstream operations [4]. - This evolution signifies a shift from manufacturing advantages to a comprehensive advantage in supply chain, branding, and technology [4]. - The overseas expansion is expected to enable Chinese tire companies to capture a larger share of the global mid-to-high-end market, driving the industry towards smarter, greener, and higher-end development [4].