投资建议：把握五条主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。1）具备价格弹性标的；2）饮料受益出行良好 景气度，重视低估值高股息；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去 化，餐供有望恢复。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，2025Q4食品饮料板块获配比例环比回落，细分来看白 酒、非白酒板块重仓环比下降，其他板块配比均呈环比回升，其中饮料乳品及休闲食品增幅居前。 2025Q4主动偏股类公募基金食品饮料重仓配置比例延续环比下行。从主动偏股类公募基金重仓配置比 例来看，2025Q4食品饮料重仓股配置比例环比-0.14pct至4.04%，位列各行业第九。其他前五获配板块 分别为电子、电力设备、通信、医药生物以及有色金属，对应2025Q4配置比例分别为21.47%（环 比-1.84pct）、9.87%（-0.32pct）、9.83%（+1.78pct）、9.16%（-1.92pct）及7.83%（+2.12pct）。 把握五条主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。1）具备价格弹性标的；2）饮料受益出行良好景气度，重 视低估值高股息；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，2025年12月29日至30日，全国数据工作会议在北京召开，会议围绕明晰数据 流通服务机构功能定位、提升数据流通交易服务效能、繁荣数据市场生态进行了专题部署，并明确提出 2026年是"数据要素价值释放年"，要求着力畅通数据流动和资源配置渠道，激活数据市场供给和需求， 繁荣市场生态，进一步推动数据"供得出、流得动、用得好、保安全"，促进数据要素全面融入经济价值 创造过程，更好赋能经济社会发展。 2026年是"数据要素价值释放年"。2025年12月29日至30日，全国数据工作会议在北京召开，会议围绕明 晰数据流通服务机构功能定位、提升数据流通交易服务效能、繁荣数据市场生态进行了专题部署，并明 确提出2026年是"数据要素价值释放年"，要求着力畅通数据流动和资源配置渠道，激活数据市场供给和 需求，繁荣市场生态，进一步推动数据"供得出、流得动、用得好、保安全"，促进数据要素全面融入经 济价值创造过程，更好赋能经济社会发展。 2024年以来政策落地节奏加快，构建数据要素制度闭环。2020年，中共中央、国务院发布《关于构建更 加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制的意见》，正式把数据列为"第五大生产要素" ...

本报告导读： 2025 年 Q4 新股首日涨幅达 176%，并且未盈利新股对 A1 类账户贡献明显，打新基 金中位数 Q4 收益 0.45%，重仓行业为电子、有色金属和电力设备。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080007 | 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.29 未盈利新股显著增厚打新收益 ——2025Q4 打新基金持仓和收益分析 [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股精要—国内汽车制造机器视觉设备龙头易思 维 2026.01.27 北证日均成交金额有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial aerospace sector has transitioned from marginal exploration to a national strategic focus, with significant policy support and a clear framework for development [2] Group 1: Policy Support and Strategic Importance - The central government has issued substantial policies for five consecutive years to support the development of commercial aerospace since "satellite internet" was included in new infrastructure [2] - The 2025 Government Work Report explicitly lists commercial aerospace as a key direction for future industries, indicating its growing importance [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The cost structure and frequency limitations of commercial aerospace are being reshaped by technological innovations, including the successful 10-kilometer VTVL test flight by private company Blue Arrow Aerospace [3] - State-owned aerospace enterprises are set to unveil a fully reusable heavy rocket plan at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, with a first flight scheduled for 2030, indicating systematic progress in reusable rocket capabilities [3] Group 3: Industry Structure and Ecosystem - The commercial aerospace industry in China has developed a complete chain encompassing upstream manufacturing, midstream launching, and downstream applications, with significant collaboration among state-owned and private enterprises [4] - The industry is moving from isolated breakthroughs to a more integrated ecosystem, with rapid expansion in vertical applications such as remote sensing, navigation, and communication [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on high-quality enterprises with core technological capabilities and collaborative advantages, recommending specific stocks such as AsiaInfo Security and Zhongke Star Map [6]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Hengdao Technology Co., Ltd. has been approved for IPO by the Beijing Stock Exchange, marking it as the 13th company to pass the review in 2026, with a focus on the development and production of hot runner systems for injection molds [1][2]. Company Overview - Hengdao Technology specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of hot runner systems and related components, which are essential heating components in injection molds widely used in automotive lighting, interior and exterior automotive parts, and 3C consumer electronics [1]. - The controlling shareholder, Wang Hongchao, holds 69.20% of the company's shares directly and controls an additional 9.30% through affiliated partnerships, totaling 78.50% of voting rights [1]. IPO Details - The company plans to publicly issue up to 13,080,000 shares, with a potential additional 1,962,000 shares through an over-allotment option, subject to approval by the Beijing Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - The funds raised, totaling approximately 403.02 million yuan, will be allocated to the production line project for 30,000 hot runner systems, the construction of a research and development center, and to supplement working capital [2]. Inquiry Points from Review Meeting - The review raised questions regarding the authenticity of performance, specifically the rationale behind the fluctuation of customers with annual sales below 500,000 yuan and the high proportion of overdue accounts receivable [3]. - Additionally, the sustainability of performance was questioned, focusing on market share among competitors in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors, core competitive advantages, and customer repurchase rates [3].

国泰海通证券研报指出，中国中铁铜、钴、钼保有储量国内领先，铜、钼产能国内前列。2025年新签订 单增长1%，其中海外订单增长 17%。维持"增持"评级及目标价9.07元。假设2025 下半年中铁资源利润 与上半年相同，以全年51.6亿元计，按照紫金矿业和江西铜业平均估值24.6倍，公司矿产资源业务可比 市值1269亿元，公司总市值1432亿元，相当于建筑业务市值163亿元，建筑业务PE约0.8倍。2025新签订 单规模同比增加1.3%。境外业务同比增加16.5%。全面推进"人工智能+"专项行动，承建海南商业航天 发射场项目。 ...

国泰海通证券研报指出，中国中铁铜、钴、钼保有储量国内领先，铜、钼产能国内前列。2025年新签订 单增长1%，其中海外订单增长 17%。维持"增持"评级及目标价9.07元。假设2025 下半年中铁资源利润 与上半年相同，以全年51.6亿元计，按照紫金矿业和江西铜业平均估值24.6倍，公司矿产资源业务可比 市值1269亿元，公司总市值1432亿元，相当于建筑业务市值163亿元，建筑业务PE约0.8倍。2025新签订 单规模同比增加1.3%。境外业务同比增加16.5%。全面推进"人工智能+"专项行动，承建海南商业航天 发射场项目。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to new highs since 2025, driven by a combination of industrial and financial demand, with silver's commodity attributes being stronger than those of gold [1][2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price of silver is more volatile than gold due to its stronger commodity attributes and broader industrial demand [2][3] - The historical relationship between gold and silver prices shows that they tend to move in sync, but silver's price is more elastic due to its financial attributes [2][3] - In the short term, financial attributes will amplify silver price fluctuations, influenced by speculative trading and market sentiment [4] Group 2: Demand Factors - Industrial demand is a core driver of silver prices, closely linked to global industrial cycles; increased demand during economic expansions supports higher prices [3] - Emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers have created a structural and sustained increase in silver demand [3] - The global supply-demand gap for silver has been evident since 2020 and is expected to persist until 2025, providing a solid fundamental support for price increases [3] Group 3: Market Behavior - Speculative trading can lead to significant price volatility, with increased futures positions and ETF mechanisms contributing to market tightness [4] - The accumulation of silver in regions like India has reduced the available supply in the international market, exacerbating structural tensions in the spot market [4] - The recent surge in silver prices may lead to short-term overvaluation, necessitating caution regarding potential price corrections [4]

Group 1 - The National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ) announced the results of the market maker evaluation for Q4 2025, with 12 market makers receiving transaction fee exemptions for their outstanding performance [1] - Notable small and medium-sized brokerages are gaining a leading position in the competitive NEEQ market, with Northeast Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Shanghai Securities ranking in the top 5% and receiving full transaction fee exemptions [1] - The competitive landscape remained stable compared to Q3 2025, with Northeast Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Shanghai Securities maintaining their top positions, while Guotai Junan's ranking improved significantly [1] Group 2 - As of January 28, 59 brokerages are serving as market makers in the NEEQ, with Northeast Securities leading in the number of market-making stocks at 67 [2] - In Q4 2025, both Kaiyuan Securities and Northeast Securities achieved cumulative market-making transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating strong trading activity [2] - The NEEQ market continues to expand, with 5,966 listed companies and a total share capital of 467.8 billion shares, providing ample business opportunities for brokerages [2] Group 3 - The growth in business demands from NEEQ companies, such as listings, supervision, and mergers, offers significant opportunities for brokerages, particularly smaller firms [3] - Brokerages can leverage the connection between NEEQ and the Beijing Stock Exchange to provide multi-tiered capital market services for technology-driven growth enterprises [3] - This strategy aims to enhance the market share and project quality of the Beijing Stock Exchange-related businesses, laying a foundation for sustained growth in investment banking performance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to achieve a 47% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with projected revenues of 586.8 billion yuan and a main revenue of 570.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% increase [1][3]. - The report highlights a trend of asset rebalancing between light and heavy assets within the brokerage sector, which is crucial for future performance [1]. - The investment environment for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be less favorable compared to the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected decline in investment income [2]. Revenue and Profit Projections - For 2025, the brokerage sector is projected to generate total revenues of 586.8 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 570.4 billion yuan, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 217.7 billion yuan, representing a 47% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2025, the sector is expected to achieve revenues of 167.2 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 158.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase [3]. Brokerage Business Performance - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for Q4 2025 is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][6]. - The average daily margin trading balance is expected to reach 2.49 trillion yuan, showing a 40% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - New account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in Q4 2025 are projected to be 7.288 million, a decrease of 37% year-on-year [2]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The report indicates a recovery in equity business under low base conditions, with Q4 2025 IPO issuance expected to reach 54.9 billion yuan, a 165% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - The asset management business is projected to see a revenue increase of 25% year-on-year, with expected revenues of 14.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025 [2][6]. - The public fund market is expected to grow, with the non-money market fund size reaching 21.9 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year [2][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three investment themes: 1. Strong comprehensive capabilities of leading institutions such as Guotai Junan and GF Securities 2. Brokerages with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities 3. Companies with strong international business capabilities, such as China Galaxy [5].