行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 2025 年 07 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 (8621)23297818× luozh@swsresearch.com 关注非银中报业绩对估值的催化 看好 —— 非银金融行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 冉兆邦 A0230524090003 ranzb@swsresearch.com - ⚫ 保险：本周申万保险 II 指数收跌 0.27%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.81pct。 2Q25 资本市场表现稳健，建议关注部分险企业绩表现超预期带来的估值提振。2Q25 沪深 300 指数/中证红利指数/中证 800 收涨 1. ...

➢ 国内方面，本周长治地区前期因安全因素停产的煤矿恢复生产，另外吕梁地区部分煤矿因井下原因产量下滑，整体影响供应端产量回升，但是部分地 区仍有区域内减产缺煤情况，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量周环比增加14.9万吨至1226.91万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.04%至85.36%。 海外方面，甘其毛都口岸通关延续低位，随着期货盘面大涨，口岸交投氛围良好，主流成交价格继续小幅上涨，蒙5原煤价格740-750元/吨。 ◆ 2、需求：高炉例行检修，关注后续环保检查扰动 ◆ 近期钢材价格震荡运行，并保有一定的利润，铁水产量高位小幅变动，焦炭刚需偏强，叠加焦炭成本支撑增强，焦炭价格阶段性底部出现，钢厂及贸 易商同时增加采购，焦企库存有明显下移，本期中国煤炭资源网监测的样本焦企库存为128.11万吨，较上周同期减少40.45万吨。 煤焦周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：焦炭一轮提涨预期，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应：产地 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：关注回调压力 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝走势略现触顶信号，现货升水已连续3周下滑，截至本周五已转为贴水20元/吨。当前铝市下游需求 在逐步触发负反馈，光伏组件及出口需求已进入向下拐点。据悉美线运力订单大概率在7月第2周见顶，对 原材料的采购需求应在本周见顶。且下游铝棒加工费，现实层面或已经被挤压至负值水平，逐渐触发加工环 节的负反馈。 ◆ 当前周频的微观基本面来看，截至7月3日，铝锭社会库存较前周增加0.6万吨至46.6万吨，累库拐点确认， 但幅度仍温和。下游方面，截至7月4日铝板带箔周度总产量本周继续回落，目前仍处在农历季节性跌势中， 累计同比小降；截至7月3日铝型材产量环比继续下滑，样本排产持平。下游加工利润看，铝棒加工费较前 周略有回升6 ...

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 755 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 850 元/方，较上 周 增加 40 元/方；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 775 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉 在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到6月29日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条，其中有30条去往中国大 ...

截至2025年7月4日收盘，国泰海通（601211）报收于19.34元，较上周的19.22元上涨0.62%。本周，国 泰海通7月4日盘中最高价报19.59元。6月30日盘中最低价报19.01元。国泰海通当前最新总市值3409.59 亿元，在证券板块市值排名3/49，在两市A股市值排名34/5149。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 交易信息汇总：国泰海通本周发生多笔大宗交易，成交金额累计超过3000万元。 公司公告汇总：国泰海通累计已回购金额达1051103216.75元，回购股数59224424股。 股本股东变化：国泰海通连续多日购回A股股份，库存股增加至113,230,577股。 股本股东变化 国泰海通在2025年7月1日、7月2日和7月3日分别购回了2,074,998股、2,070,000股和2,074,986股A股股 份，购回价格分别为每股人民币19.2777元、19.1645元和19.2381元。购回后，库存股份数量增加至 113,230,577股，已发行股份总数减少至14,010,718,271股。 公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has launched the Integrated Fund Platform (IFP) order transmission service, enhancing the efficiency of fund distribution and providing a broader range of investment options for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Platform Overview - The IFP includes 33 companies, with 17 fund distributors, including 12 Chinese brokers, and aims to streamline the fund distribution process [1][4]. - The platform is designed to cover the entire distribution cycle of retail funds in Hong Kong, lowering entry barriers for the fund industry and improving market efficiency [3][7]. - The new order transmission service integrates subscription and redemption processes, facilitating smoother operations between fund distributors and registered agents [3][9]. Group 2: Participating Institutions - The 12 Chinese brokers participating in the IFP include notable firms such as China Galaxy International and CITIC Securities, all of which have cross-border wealth management qualifications [2][8]. - Other distributors include major banks like Bank of China (Hong Kong) and China Construction Bank (Asia), indicating a diverse range of institutions involved [4][6]. - The platform also includes six registered agents, enhancing the operational framework of the fund distribution network [5]. Group 3: Impact on Wealth Management - The launch of the IFP is expected to significantly benefit wealth management businesses, particularly for brokers qualified for cross-border wealth management [10][11]. - As of May 2025, the cross-border wealth management program has seen participation from 157,900 investors, indicating a growing market for these services [10]. - Brokers have expressed optimism about the platform's potential to enhance service capabilities and expand the range of fund products available to clients [11]. Group 4: Future Developments - Future phases of the IFP will include agent services and improvements in payment and settlement processes, with ongoing collaboration between HKEX, regulators, and industry stakeholders [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, forecasting a double-digit year-on-year growth in net profit for the brokerage sector in Q2 2025, with an estimated net profit of 43.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a low base effect and a recovering market, with significant contributions from proprietary trading and brokerage services. The report anticipates a total investment income of 49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The report highlights a rebound in the stock and bond markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% in Q2 2025. The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 16.7 basis points to 1.6469% during the same period [3][4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on leading institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, brokers with significant earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Brokerage and Margin Financing - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q2 2025 was 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15%. The average daily margin financing balance was 1.82 trillion yuan, up 19% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6]. - The report projects brokerage business revenue of 25.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21% [4][6]. Investment Banking - The report notes a significant increase in A-share equity financing, with IPOs reaching 21.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 171% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. The total refinancing volume was 562.2 billion yuan, compared to 235 million yuan in Q2 2024 [3][6]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 71% year-on-year and 86% quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. Asset Management - The report indicates that the asset management business remains resilient, with the market size of equity mixed funds reaching 7.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, a 4% increase from the previous quarter. The ETF market also saw significant growth, expanding to 4.3 trillion yuan, up 13% from Q1 2025 [3][6]. - Asset management revenue is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with no year-on-year growth but a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. International Business - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong trading and IPO activity, with an average daily trading volume of 241.3 billion HKD, an 83% increase compared to 2024. Year-to-date IPO fundraising in Hong Kong reached 107.1 billion HKD [3][6].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 券商资管产品是由证券公司或其资管子公司作为管理人，依照资产管理合同约定的方式、条件及 限制，对客户资产进行投资管理的金融工具。 券商的资产管理产品主要分为 集合资管计划、定向资管计划、专项资管计划 。而我们常说的券 商资管产品一般指代的是券商集合资管计划。券商集合资管计划 根据投资标的可以分为 股票型 、 债券型 、混合 型 、 FOF 、 QDII、货币市场型 、 另类投资 等。 根据中国证券投资基金业协会数据，截至2025年一季度末（最新数据）， 券商运行的资管产品 （集合资管计划）共有 10210只，产品总规模约为28215亿元。 其中， "集合资管计划"总规模超100亿元的券商（或资管公司）共有31家。 中信证券、国泰海 通、中金公司、中银证券、广发资管、广发证券、招商证券、中信建投证券、国金证券、国金资 管、首创证券等 11家券商的"集合资管计划"规模均在千亿元级别。中信证券以3432亿元的管理 规模位列第1。 0 1 股票型券商资管产品在近一年领跑！ 那么券商资管产品（在此仅包括"集合资管计划"）的最新业绩如何呢？ 根据Choice数 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 國泰海通證券股份有限公司(「本公司」) 呈交日期： 2025年7月4日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 說明 | A股於上海證券交易所上市(證券代號: 601211) | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份） ...