煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面供需双弱，情绪面占主导 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，产地部分煤矿产量继续提升，叠加前期因安监影响停减产的煤矿恢复正常，供应端继续增量，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量 周环比增加14.67万吨至1234.29万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.02%至85.87%。。进口方面，本周甘其毛都口岸通关车数维持高位运行，中国煤炭资源 网统计本周（1.26-1.29）甘其毛都口岸通关4天，日均通关1457车，较上周同期环比增加281车。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 焦炭首轮提涨于上周落地，涨后预计平稳运行，焦化厂心态普遍偏保守，且对炼焦煤的补库已接近尾声，进一步追高采购的意愿不强。本周全国日均 铁水产量为227.98万吨，较上周下降0.12万吨，铁水产量降至低位，对原料的刚性需求减弱。 。 ◆ 3、库存： ➢ 本周各环节焦煤总库存环比增35.3万吨，本周仍处冬储补库周期，坑口库存下 ...

Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, shows continued improvement in fundamentals, highlighting the investment value of the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 31, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 4117.95 points, down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14205.89, down 1.62% [10] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [10] - The CITIC II Securities Index fell by 0.71%, while the CITIC II Insurance Index rose by 5.41% [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [15] - As of January 30, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.81%, down 2 basis points from the previous week, indicating a cautious risk preference in the equity market [12] - The insurance sector is benefiting from a stable long-term interest rate environment and an upward trend in the equity market, which is expected to drive performance growth in Q1 2026 [15] Securities Sector - The securities market is showing positive core indicators, with a projected high growth in Q1 2026, supported by improved trading volume and margin financing [16] - As of January 30, 2026, 17 brokerages reported a total net profit of 1153.44 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60.27% [19] - The average daily trading volume of all A and B shares reached 2.90 trillion CNY, a 144.26% increase compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a significant rise in market activity [21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is expected to expand business opportunities, with the first three products anticipated to raise over 13 billion CNY [27] - The REITs initiative aims to activate existing commercial real estate assets and enhance the supply of capital market products, indicating strong market demand [27] - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies like China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [15]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者： 侯欢、梁中华 投资要点 本月制造业PMI淡季回落，需求待提振，扩产较谨慎。受大宗商品涨价影响，价格指数明显回升。此外，服务业景气平稳，建筑业活 跃度还需政策呵护。 2026年1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.8%，比上月下降4.0个百分点；服务业商务活 动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。 制造业PMI：淡季回落。为了缓解春节假期因素的扰动，国泰海通证券把本月PMI与近年春节前一个月对比。结果发现，本月PMI不及 近年同期平均水平，降幅强于季节性。一方面，企业规模分化加剧，大型企业PMI仍位于扩张区间, 中、小型企业PMI在收缩区间低位 运行。另一方面，经济结构转型加快。高技术制造业PMI连续两个月位于较高水平，装备制造业保持在扩张区间。相比之下，消费品 行业和高耗能行业处于收缩区间，景气水平有所回落。 需求有待提振，扩产较为谨慎。2026年1月份，生产指数为50.6%，虽然高于临界点，但是比上月下降1.1个百分点，除了淡季因素的影 响，还与需求的回落有关。同期，新订单、新出口订单指数分别为49.2%、4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Walsh's "pragmatic monetary policy" signals the Federal Reserve's commitment to controlling inflation while addressing Trump's interest rate cut demands, aiming to correct market distortions caused by excessive QE and achieve convergence in a "K"-shaped economy [1] Group 2 - Walsh's notable policy proposition is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE, advocating for QT to control inflation and create space for rate cuts once risks are mitigated [1][3] - The balance between the White House and Wall Street is highlighted, as Trump's criticism of Powell led to Walsh being favored for his ability to maintain Fed independence while aligning with Trump's rate cut desires [1][2] Group 3 - The concept of QT is described as "responsible balance sheet management," aimed at correcting the "infinite support" approach of monetary policy on the demand side, while rate cuts are intended to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective [2] - Evidence supporting QT's effectiveness in controlling inflation is noted, with CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% following the Fed's announcement of passive balance sheet reduction in 2022 [3] - Challenges in transitioning to a "tight reserve mechanism" are acknowledged, as liquidity issues may constrain QT implementation until bank reserves return to adequate levels [3]

国泰海通证券研究 报告导读：变化的沃什的政策倾向，不变的美联储独立性困境。美债建议防御优先、久期中性、控制波 动。 1．聚焦美联储换届：货币政策与美债市场前瞻 1.1美联储换届前后的历史规律回顾：货币政策和债市行情变化 曲线形态方面，换届往往触发期限利差的结构性调整。历史数据显示，若新任主席被市场解读为"鸽 派"，短端受降息预期压制更多，曲线陡峭化；若被视为"鹰派"，长端因通胀担忧走高更快，曲线先陡 峭后平坦。2018年鲍威尔上任后延续加息，2s10s利差从50个基点收窄至20个基点以内，最终在2019年 倒挂，倒逼美联储转向降息。这种"换届-政策预期-曲线调整-政策纠偏"的反馈循环在历史上屡见不鲜。 风险溢价层面，换届期间国债波动率指数（MOVE Index）平均上升15-25%，反映市场对政策路径分歧 加大。若新任主席来自美联储内部或延续前任政策框架，溢价上升相对温和；若为外部人选且政治色彩 浓厚，市场对独立性的担忧将显著推升期限溢价和流动性溢价。2018年鲍威尔虽为外部人选但政策延续 性强，MOVE指数仅短暂飙升后回落；而1979年沃尔克上任后激进转向，债市波动率持续高位运行长达 两年。 2026年的换 ...

2026年1月31日，证监会官网披露，国泰海通已提交《关于甘肃金川瑞翔新材料股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并上市辅导备案报告》。目前，金川瑞翔 的辅导状态为"辅导备案"。辅导机构为国泰海通证券股份有限公司，律师事务所为北京市中伦律师事务所，会计师事务所为容诚会计师事务所（特殊普通 合伙）。 甘肃金川瑞翔新材料股份有限公司，公司位于甘肃省金昌市，是一家专业从事新能源材料研发、制造、销售的高新技术企业，公司主营产品为三元材料、 锰酸锂、磷酸铁锂、磷酸锰铁锂及钠电等正极材料，广泛应用于动力电池、储能电池、消费电池三大领域。法定代表人胡家彦。 金川瑞翔的控股股东及持股比例情况如下：公司控股股东为金川科技园、间接控股股东为金川集团。金川科技园直接持有公司24.46%股权，通过其子公 司湖南瑞翔控制公司33.65%股权，因此金川科技园合计控制公司58.11%股权，为公司控股股东。金川集团直接持有金川科技园100%股权，为公司间接控 股股东。 天眼查信息显示，金川瑞翔历史上获得了国家绿色发展基金、建信投资、工银资本、欣旺达、晨熹资本、能达资本等投资机构的投资。 | | | | 【甘肃金川瑞翔新材料股份有限公司】的 3 条融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by active capital markets and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Major Securities Firms - 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, showing overall positive growth in net profits [2]. - CITIC Securities is projected to achieve over 30 billion yuan in net profit, with a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan, marking a 28.75% year-on-year increase [2]. - Guotai Junan expects a net profit between 27.53 billion yuan and 28.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [2]. - Other notable firms include招商证券 with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan (up 18.43%), and申万宏源 with a projected net profit of 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion yuan (up 74.64% to 93.83%) [2]. Group 2: Performance of Small and Medium-sized Securities Firms - Smaller firms like国联民生 anticipate a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 406% [3]. -天风证券 expects to turn a profit with a net profit forecast of 12.5 million to 18.5 million yuan [3]. - Other small firms such as长江证券 and中原证券 are also expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% and 50%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Drivers of Growth - The growth in performance is attributed to the active capital market, with wealth management, proprietary trading, and asset management businesses benefiting significantly [3]. - Guotai Haitong noted a substantial increase in income from wealth management and institutional trading due to the rising activity in the domestic capital market [3]. - CITIC Securities reported rapid growth across brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading revenues [3]. Group 4: Investment Value of the Sector - The non-bank financial sector has seen a decline of 1.59% as of January 30, but analysts believe that the valuation of securities firms is at a historically low level, enhancing their investment appeal [4]. - The sector is entering a golden window for valuation and performance recovery, driven by favorable policies and an improving market environment [5]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three investment themes: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading firms, firms with significant performance elasticity, and those with strong international business competitiveness [5].

● 本报记者 林倩 随着资本市场持续活跃，上市券商2025年业绩表现备受关注。Wind数据显示，截至1月30日中国证券报 记者发稿时，有21家上市券商披露了2025年业绩预告或业绩快报。 头部券商中信证券、国泰君安等继续巩固市场领先地位，中信证券2025年归母净利润超300亿元，国泰 海通预计2025年归母净利润同比增速超100%。中小券商业绩弹性更大，国联民生预计2025年净利润同 比增速超400%。经纪业务、自营业务等成为上述上市券商2025年业绩增长的核心驱动力。 业内人士表示，2025年A股市场活跃，券商业绩高景气度延续，建议关注业绩向好带来的券商板块投资 机会。 中小券商净利润规模虽小，但业绩弹性更大。国联民生预计2025年度实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比 增长约406%。国联民生也在公告中表示，报告期内公司完成通过发行A股股份的方式收购民生证券控 制权，并将其纳入财务报表合并范围。天风证券则预计在2025年实现归母净利润1.25亿元到1.85亿元， 将实现扭亏为盈。 此外，长江证券预计2025年净利润增幅超过100%；中原证券、红塔证券、华西证券、东北证券预计 2025年净利润增幅也超过50% ...

Company Overview - Shenzhen Huake Precision Industry Co., Ltd. was established in 2004 and focuses on the research, production of precision metal and plastic components, connectors, and precision stamping and injection molds, with applications in communication, automotive, medical, industrial control, and consumer electronics sectors [1][2]. - The legal representative of the company is Du Liuxue [1]. Shareholding Structure - As of the report date, Shenzhen Huake Precision Holdings Co., Ltd. directly holds 28.5 million shares, representing a 41.56% stake, making it the controlling shareholder of the company [1][2]. IPO Guidance Status - On January 29, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed that Guotai Junan Securities has submitted the "Guidance Filing Report for the Initial Public Offering and Listing of Shenzhen Huake Precision Industry Co., Ltd." The current guidance status is "Guidance Filing" [1]. - The guidance agreement was signed on January 19, 2026, with Guotai Junan Securities as the guiding institution, Guangdong Huashang Law Firm as the legal advisor, and Zhongshen Zhonghuan Accounting Firm (Special General Partnership) as the accounting firm [3][4]. Guidance Process - The guidance process includes several stages: - Preliminary stage involves due diligence and developing a specific guidance plan based on the company's situation, with regular coordination meetings among intermediary institutions [4]. - During the guidance phase, training sessions will be conducted for the personnel of the company, covering capital market fundamentals, legal regulations, and internal control systems [6]. - The post-guidance phase focuses on preparing the application documents for the initial public offering and ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [6].

Core Insights - Figure's Helix 02 represents a significant technological breakthrough, transitioning humanoid robots from demonstration to practical application, with a focus on a single neural control system that addresses the industry's challenges in mobility and operation integration [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - On January 27, Figure officially launched its new AI model Helix 02, which marks a key advancement in the full-body autonomous control capabilities of humanoid robots compared to its predecessor, Helix [1] Group 2: Practical Applications - Helix 02 has demonstrated its ability to perform 61 continuous actions autonomously, such as loading and unloading a dishwasher, indicating its potential for real-world applications in home services and restaurant kitchens [2] - The robot can execute complex tasks like opening bottle caps and sorting items in cluttered environments, showcasing its capabilities beyond pure visual control and providing possibilities for future applications in medical assistance and precision manufacturing [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Helix 02 introduces a "three-level collaborative" integrated control architecture, utilizing a new SYSTEM 0 that operates at a frequency of 1kHz to manage full-body balance and coordination [3] - The model employs over 1,000 hours of human motion data and 200,000 parallel simulation environments for reinforcement learning, replacing millions of lines of manual code with a single neural network for natural human-like movement [3] - SYSTEM 1 enhances the visual motion strategy by integrating high-sensitivity tactile sensors and multi-dimensional cameras, creating an end-to-end control link from pixel to joint, capable of both millimeter-level precision and room-scale mobility [3] - SYSTEM 2 upgrades semantic reasoning capabilities, allowing the robot to interpret complex long-term commands without intervention in the underlying movements, addressing the industry's core pain points of mobility and operation interdependence [3]