智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持钢铁行业"增持"评级。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促 进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益;在环保加 严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。该行维持供给端收缩的 预期，钢铁基本面有望逐步修复。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 上周五大钢材表观需求环增，五大钢厂厂库和社库合计环降 上周(11月17日-11月21日)五大钢材表需894万吨，环比增3.90%，同比降2.01%;其中建材表需319万吨， 环降16万吨;板材表需575万吨，环增18万吨。五大钢材产850万吨，环降16万吨;总库1433万吨，环降44 万吨，连续数周下降，符合历史同期规律。10月份粗钢产7180万吨，同降12.10%;10月份生铁产6555万 吨，同降7.9%;10月我钢材累计出口9774万吨，累增6.6%，环降2.6个百分点。产量下降，库存下降，国 内钢材资源供应更加平衡。 钢企盈利环比下降 进口矿港口库存15055万吨，环降75万吨。螺纹模拟测算平均吨毛利为61元/吨，较上一周降20元/吨， 热卷模拟平均吨毛利-65元/吨，较 ...

人民财讯11月24日电，企查查APP显示，近日，安徽高投国泰海通健康并购股权投资基金合伙企业(有 限合伙)成立，出资额5亿元，经营范围包含以私募基金从事股权投资、投资管理、资产管理等活动。企 查查股权穿透显示，该企业由君实生物、国泰海通全资子公司国泰君安创新投资有限公司等共同出资。 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the evolution of lighthouse factories as key carriers of new productive forces and new industrialization, driven by AI and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The integration of AI into manufacturing is seen as a top-level driver for the development of lighthouse factories, with a focus on digital transformation through industrial software and automation vendors [1] Group 1: Lighthouse Factory Evolution - Lighthouse factories have transitioned from being technology models to global smart manufacturing hubs, representing the highest level of intelligent manufacturing [1] - These factories leverage new technologies such as IoT, AI, cloud computing, and robotics to achieve comprehensive automation, precision, and sustainability in production processes [1] - The assessment focus of lighthouse factories has evolved from single-point applications of Industry 4.0 to a comprehensive operational upgrade that includes sustainability, supply chain resilience, talent systems, and customer orientation [1] Group 2: Policy and AI Driving Growth - The Chinese government has integrated digitalization, networking, intelligence, and greening into the main line of manufacturing development, viewing smart and lighthouse factories as crucial for new productive forces and advanced manufacturing clusters [2] - Local governments are providing financial subsidies, pilot demonstrations, and industrial funds to cultivate smart and lighthouse factories, creating a complete policy chain from diagnosis to demonstration [2] - The industry layout of lighthouse factories in China is extending into high-tech fields, with core operational indicators significantly surpassing the global average [2] Group 3: Domestic Industrial Software and Hardware Vendors - Domestic companies are focusing on industrial software, automation control, industrial internet, and AI models to provide comprehensive capabilities for lighthouse factories, from "factory operating systems" to scenario-based solutions [3]

近日，在上海期货交易所大力支持下，国泰君安期货、国泰君安风险管理有限公司与海南省琼中黎族苗 族自治县农业农村局联合举办党建活动暨乡村振兴调研座谈会。活动旨在通过党建共建与业务协作相结 合的方式，进一步推动琼中县农业产业发展，深化"保险+期货"金融服务模式在地方实践中的运用。 自2017年起，国泰君安期货已第九年联合中国人民财产保险股份有限公司上海市分公司、海南省分公 司，在琼中县开展"保险+期货"项目。截至目前，累计承保天然橡胶规模达26,500吨，为天然橡胶产业 提供了持续的风险管理服务。今年项目已于9月顺利启动，保障周期为三个月，承保天然橡胶现货规模 3000吨，进一步巩固了金融工具服务地方产业的实效。 座谈会上，琼中县农业农村局领导介绍了当地农业产业的发展现状，强调了党建引领在乡村振兴中的核 心作用，并对国泰君安期货一行的到来表示欢迎。国泰君安期货在随后的发言中表示，公司始终秉 持"金融报国"理念，积极履行社会责任，专注于提供专业的风险管理和价格对冲服务，助力构建覆盖农 业全产业链的金融支持体系，持续推动天然橡胶产业稳健发展。 此次党建共建与调研座谈是国泰君安期货贯彻落实国家乡村振兴战略、推动党建与业务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan emphasizes a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite recent volatility, suggesting that the market is entering a favorable phase for investment as it approaches a critical window of policy and liquidity support from December to February [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market has experienced significant declines, with the ChiNext index down 12%, the STAR 50 index nearly 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech index down 22%, indicating that the market has already released much of its risk [1]. - The report highlights that the current pessimism among investors is driven by year-end profit protection, reduced positions, and external factors such as the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in U.S. markets [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Guotai Junan recommends increasing exposure to the Chinese market, particularly in technology, financial services, and consumer sectors, as the market is expected to stabilize and embark on a rally [1][3]. - Specific sectors to focus on include: - **Technology**: Growth in AI applications and infrastructure, with recommendations for internet, media, computing, and manufacturing sectors [3]. - **Financial Services**: Anticipated reforms in the capital market and early bank dividends, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks [3]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks, particularly in food, beverages, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [3]. Future Outlook - The Chinese capital market is positioned for significant growth, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in non-financial sectors by 2026, driven by improved cash flows and reduced debt [2]. - The report suggests that the historical "guaranteed return" mindset is shifting, leading to increased asset management demand and a potential influx of new capital into the market [2].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【统计局：中国10月外胎产量同比下降2.5%】据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年10月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为9795.1万条，同比下降2.5%。1- 10月橡胶轮胎外胎产量较上年同期增1%至9.96421亿条。 2.【中国前10个月轮胎出口量同比增长3.8%】据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%； 出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand and macro factors lead to the downward revision of coal - coke valuation. Domestic coal production has a slight month - on - month increase but may be affected by safety inspections, and Mongolian coal supply remains high. Downstream coking coal replenishment is limited due to bearish sentiment, and steel mills' production is unstable. Recently, the macro risk appetite at home and abroad has significantly declined, and the valuation of risk assets has dropped. The notice on the signing of long - term coal contracts in 2026 strengthens the market's expectation of coal supply recovery, and without significant positive drivers in demand and the macro - level, coal - coke valuation continues to fall [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal - Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Domestic coal production has a slight month - on - month increase, but some areas may have temporary shutdowns due to safety inspections. Mongolian coal supply remains high, especially the significant year - on - year increase in the number of trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port recently [3] - **Demand**: Affected by bearish sentiment, downstream coking coal replenishment is limited, but steel mills' production is unstable, and hot metal production remains high [3] - **Macro**: Recently, the macro risk appetite at home and abroad has significantly declined, the valuation of risk assets related to technology and other themes has dropped significantly, and the domestic valuation has also been significantly revised down [3] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The notice on the signing of long - term coal contracts in 2026 strengthens the market's expectation of coal supply recovery, and without significant positive drivers in demand and the macro - level, coal - coke valuation continues to fall [3] Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Coal**: FW raw coal is 851.45 (-2.36), FW clean coal is 433.84 (-1.82), hot metal production is 236.28 (-0.6), MS total inventory is - 10.1 (mine raw coal - 0.1, mine clean coal + 20.9, independent coking - 30.8, steel mill coking + 6.9, port - 7.0, FW port + 12.7), and the profit of commercial coal is 587 (-6). The Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1223 [5] - **Coke**: The daily average of independent coking plants is 62.67 (-0.33), the daily average of steel mill coking plants is 46.22 (+0.05), hot metal production is 236.28 (-0.6), MS total inventory is + 1.3 (independent coking - 5.8, steel mill - 0.1, port + 7.1), and the average profit of coking enterprises is 19 (+53). The Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1621 [5] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply - Weekly**: It shows the production data of raw coal, clean coal, and the production of 523 sample mines, as well as the production data of coking coal in different years [9][11][13] - **Supply - Monthly**: It shows the monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 [15] - **Supply - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: It shows the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs clearance volume of the three ports from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][21][23] - **Inventory - Pithead**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 13.62 tons week - on - week to 155.81 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 10.41 tons week - on - week to 97.99 tons [28] - **Inventory - Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory is 291.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7 tons [30] - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different regions and different production capacities [33][35][37] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and steel mill coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different regions [39] 02 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants, including the overall situation, the situation of plants with different production capacities, and the situation in different regions [42] - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 [44] - **Supply - Output - Coking Plant**: It shows the daily output of coke in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years [46] - **Supply - Output - Steel Mill**: It shows the daily output of coke in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 [48] - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: It shows the inventory of coke in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years [50] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: It shows the inventory and average available days of coke in steel mill coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years and different regions [51][53][54] - **Inventory - Full - Sample Summary**: It shows the total coke inventory from 2019 to 2025 [56] - **Demand - Pig Iron**: It shows the daily output of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 and the supply - demand difference of coke [58][59] - **Profit**: It shows the profit of coke, including the profit of the main - contract on the coke futures and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [62][63] 03 Coal - Coke Spot and Futures Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: It shows the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605 from November 14 to November 21, 2025 [67] - **Coke Futures**: It shows the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and coke 2605 from November 14 to November 21, 2025 [69] - **Coal - Coke Month - Spread**: It shows the month - spreads of coking coal and coke from August 7 to November 7, 2025 [72] - **Coal - Coke Spot**: It shows the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke [75] - **Coal - Coke Basis**: The basis fluctuates within a narrow range, and the futures prices have been relatively firm recently, so the basis has not broken through the previous high [77]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The integration of brokerages under the Huijin system has commenced, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, potentially enhancing CICC's market position and asset base significantly [4]. - The insurance asset management sector has seen a year-on-year increase of 36% in stock allocation, with total managed funds reaching CNY 33.3 trillion, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The report highlights three investment themes for brokerages: benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, focusing on firms with strong earnings elasticity, and targeting companies with strong international business capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,453.61, down 3.77% for the week, while the non-bank index fell 4.44% [7]. - The brokerage sector index decreased by 4.89%, underperforming the broader market [7]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of the end of 2024, the total assets managed by 34 insurance asset management companies increased by 10.6% year-on-year to CNY 33.3 trillion, with a notable rise in stock allocations [4]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for November 2025 was CNY 19,739.55 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [20]. Key Announcements - CICC is undergoing a significant asset restructuring, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [34]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has announced the inclusion of electronic savings bonds in personal pension products, effective June 2026, which may influence investment strategies in the insurance sector [21].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a correction phase since October, primarily due to previous significant gains, tightening dollar liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the ongoing AI wave and the influx of incremental capital suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is likely to continue [1][2][13]. Market Adjustment - Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has performed well, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech reaching new highs in early October. However, by mid-October, the market began to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a maximum decline of 5.1% and Hang Seng Tech a maximum decline of 8.1% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech recorded maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively this year before entering the current adjustment phase [2]. Factors Influencing the Market - The tightening of dollar liquidity and the decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured the Hong Kong stock market. The U.S. government shutdown led to a temporary halt in government spending, causing dollar liquidity to tighten [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown, economic data remains unclear, leading to cautious Federal Reserve rate cut decisions. The market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped to 40% [3]. - The significant prior gains in the Hong Kong stock market, coupled with rising concerns over AI bubbles, have created selling pressure. The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a maximum increase of 61% this year, while the Hang Seng Biotech Index has increased by 130% [3][8]. Historical Context of Market Corrections - In bull markets, adjustments are common, categorized into small corrections (average maximum decline of about 7%) and large corrections (average maximum decline of about 17%). Small corrections typically occur due to short-term market sentiment disturbances, while large corrections are often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - Historical data shows that small corrections in the Hang Seng Index average a maximum decline of 6.5% and last about 12 trading days, while large corrections average a maximum decline of 17% and last about 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - The tightening dollar liquidity is viewed as a short-term disturbance, and the AI wave is expected to continue. The release of previously accumulated liquidity following the end of the U.S. government shutdown may support the Hong Kong stock market [13]. - Incremental capital inflows and the gathering of quality assets suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks may continue. The unique characteristics of Hong Kong assets, particularly in the context of the ongoing transformation in the domestic economy, enhance their attractiveness [13][14]. - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year. This trend is likely to be supported by institutional investors, further propelling the market upward [14].