事件：11月14日，金融监管总局发布2025年三季度保险公司资金运用情况 国泰海通主要观点如下： 前三季度保险资金运用余额稳健提升。截至2025年三季度，保险行业资金运用余额37.5万亿元，较年初 +12.6%;其中人身险33.7万亿元，较年初+12.6%;财险2.4万亿元，较年初+7.5%。预计主要得益于新单及 续期保费稳健增长带来的现金流贡献，2025年前三季度保险行业保费同比+8.8%，人身险同比+10.2%， 财险同比+4.9%。 股票配置进一步提升，债券占比环比下降 1)截至25年三季度末，保险行业("人身险+财险"口径，下同)配置股票资产达3.62万亿元，较年初提升 1.19万亿元，环比Q2末提升0.55万亿元;占比为10.0%，较年初提升2.5pt，环比Q2末提升1.2pt。该行预计 一方面得益于保险公司持续提升股票资产配置，以及权益市场回暖带来股票资产市值提升，2025年前三 季度上证指数较年初+15.8%，其中Q3单季度+12.7%。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，截至2025年三季度，保险行业资金运用余额37.5万亿元，较 年初+12.6%，前三季度保险资金运用余额稳健提升。保险 ...

Group 1 - The new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting private investment and REITs issuance [2] - As of October 29, 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools have been allocated, with a portion supporting key private investment projects [2] - A total of 18 private investment projects have been recommended to the CSRC, with 14 projects already issued, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable price levels and ensure steady growth, employment, and expectations [3] - In October, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan [3] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to promote the integrated development of renewable energy [4] - The guidelines aim to enhance the complementary development of various renewable energy sources and optimize energy structures [4] - There is a focus on improving the collaborative development of wind, solar, hydrogen, and storage technologies [4] Group 4 - Recommendations include sectors such as copper and cobalt resources, energy storage, dividends, and infrastructure in the western region [5] - Specific stock recommendations include China Railway (601390) for copper, China Metallurgical (601618) for nickel, and China Construction (601668) for low valuation and high dividends [5] - The report also highlights opportunities in AI and low-altitude economy sectors, recommending companies like Design Institute (603357) and Huazhong International (002949) [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is entering an upward trajectory after hitting a low in Q4 2023, with significant growth observed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [5][18]. - The brokerage sector has seen a shift from "customer acquisition" to "existing customer management and institutional deepening," focusing on creating a comprehensive product matrix across various investment types [5][29]. - The report identifies three categories of brokers that have outperformed: those with low valuations and improving fundamentals, those involved in mergers and acquisitions, and those driven by innovative business models [5][12]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the performance of H-shares has outpaced A-shares due to a stronger Hong Kong market, lower valuations, and accelerated interconnectivity between capital markets [11][12]. - As of November 14, 2025, the brokerage index has increased by 4.29%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 19.06%, indicating a significant underperformance of the brokerage sector compared to the broader market [11][12]. - The report notes that the brokerage sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.41 times, which is at the 47th percentile since 2018, suggesting that the sector is undervalued [5]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management as a core support for brokerage businesses, driven by increased asset allocation from residents into the equity market [5][34]. - The brokerage industry is expected to benefit directly from the increasing attractiveness of the equity market, with specific recommendations for companies like GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [5]. - The report outlines that the brokerage sector's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 has increased by 66% year-on-year, with significant contributions from brokerage and interest income [18][34]. Group 4 - The report discusses the internationalization of brokerage services, driven by client demand, with major firms establishing overseas subsidiaries and focusing on cross-border services [5][18]. - The brokerage sector is experiencing a "counter-cyclical" asset allocation strategy, with a continued increase in equity asset allocation expected in 2025 [5][18]. - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is positioned for a recovery in public fund profitability, with the potential for increased allocations from public funds to the non-bank financial sector [5][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is rated "Buy" by Guotai Junan, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 57.19 billion, 62.44 billion, and 69.95 billion respectively, and a target price of 66.85 HKD per share based on a 38x PE valuation for 2025 [1] - The company is actively developing non-property businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1] - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was 736.7 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, while net income increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion, although net profit decreased by 36.1% to 0.747 billion [1] Group 2 - The second-hand property business is steadily expanding, with net income from existing properties at 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while total transaction volume increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion [2] - The commission rate for existing properties was 1.19%, with the Lianjia existing property commission rate at 2.53% and the Beilian existing property commission rate at 0.38% [2] - The new property business saw a decline in net income by 14.1% to 6.6 billion, with total transaction volume down 13.7% to 196.3 billion in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has actively implemented a share repurchase plan, with a record high repurchase amount of 281 million in Q3 2025, bringing the total repurchase amount for the year to approximately 675 million, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [3] - Since the initiation of the repurchase program in September 2022, the cumulative repurchase amount has reached approximately 2.3 billion, accounting for about 11.5% of the total share capital before the program started [3]

国泰海通发布研报称，予贝壳-W(02423)"增持"评级。该行预计公司2025-2027年经调整净利润分别为 57.19、62.44、69.95亿元(归母净利润分别为38.32、41.53、47.73亿元)，给予公司2025年38倍PE估值， 对应合理价值为60.83元，换算为每股66.85港元。公司当前积极发展非房业务应对周期风险，抓紧降费 提效动作转为防守姿态，加大股东回馈力度提高投资价值。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2025年第三季度，公司回购金额达到2.81亿美元，单季度回购金额创近两年来新高。截至2025年第三季 度末，公司今年斥资约6.75亿美元回购股份，金额同比增长15.7%，回购股数占2024年末总股本约3%。 自2022年9月回购项目启动以来，截至2025年9月末，公司累计回购金额约23亿美元，回购股数占回购项 目启动前公司总股本约11.5%。 风险提示：房地产行业面临缩量风险，公司新业务模式有待验证。 2025年3Q，公司总交易额为7367亿元，同比基本持平;净收入为231亿元，同比增加2.1%，2025年3Q， 公司净利润为7.47亿元，同比下降36.1%，经调整净利润为12.86亿元，同 ...

电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君多空头各加仓超 1000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 海通多空头均明显减仓 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 华泰多头减仓国君空头加仓均超 1000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国君加仓海通减仓 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 543.0 1,112.0 610.0 -1,368.0 5,374.0 806.0 1,308.0 1,057.0 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 数 ...

国泰海通主要观点如下： 双十一稳健双位数增长，即时零售增长亮眼、一站式打通全链路为趋势。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，双十一稳健双位数增长，即时零售增长亮眼、一站式打通全 链路为趋势。美妆品类多平台维持稳健增长，天猫高端国际品牌排名回暖，抖音头部国货维持领先。品 牌战报维度，若羽臣(003010.SZ)、上美(02145)多品牌发力，双十一表现亮眼。自下而上优选存在产品 及渠道变化、具备弹性的标的。 据星图数据，在双十一周期进一步延长下，2025年双十一全网GMV为16950亿对比2024年双十一增长 14%，其中综合电商、即时零售、社区团购GMV16191、670、90亿元同比+12%、138%、-35%，即时 零售增长亮眼。各平台加大业务模块协同，一站式服务、打通全链路成为趋势。天猫双十一实现4年来 最好增长，88VIP贡献明显，飞猪、淘宝闪购带来增量;京东成交额再创新高，外卖、酒旅等创新业态势 能强;抖音平台进一步深化内容及直播协同。 若羽臣绽家全渠道GMV同比增长80%;斐萃全渠道GMV同比增长35倍，环比618增长110%;品牌管理&电 商运营业务中，康王天猫、抖音GMV同比+50%、2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a cooling in the trading heat of A-share thematic investments compared to October, with a notable differentiation within the technology sector and a rebound in consumer blue chips [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The average daily trading volume for thematic investments was 800 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.55%, showing a decline since early November [1] - The technology sector has shown internal differentiation, with lithium battery materials like electrolytes and separators experiencing significant gains, while some innovative drugs have rebounded and PCB/light modules have corrected [1] - Non-technology themes are gaining traction, with low-priced blue chips and sectors like liquor and finance attracting net inflows [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption - The State Council has emphasized enhancing supply-demand adaptability to unleash consumption potential, fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats [2] - New demand is leading to new supply, with emerging consumption scenes in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances, contributing over 38 billion yuan in consumption in Jiangsu [2] - The ice and snow sports consumption scale is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, marking a 25% year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Development in Xinjiang - Xinjiang is focusing on western openness, strategic positioning, energy resources, and agricultural products, with plans to implement 500 key projects by 2025, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [3] - The annual investment plan is set at 406.9 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the number of key projects and investment compared to 2024 [3] - Key projects include comprehensive transportation, efficient water resource utilization, and energy infrastructure, with a total investment of 1.21 trillion yuan in transportation and 2.22 trillion yuan in energy projects [3] Group 4: AI Applications - Alibaba has launched a personal AI assistant based on the Qwen model, while the State Council has issued guidelines to accelerate the cultivation of high-value AI application scenarios [4] - The goal is to achieve over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, and over 90% by 2030 [4] - Recommendations include investments in internet and financial applications, as well as data center power equipment and domestic computing capabilities [4] Group 5: Robotics - Yushu Technology has completed its IPO guidance report, and XPeng Motors has introduced a new humanoid robot, IRON, designed for various industrial and personal applications [4] - The robotics sector is leveraging China's manufacturing supply chain advantages to establish a technological and scalable foundation [4] - Key investment areas include dexterous hands, sensors, and lightweight materials, alongside core supply chain components [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management" has led to a significant increase in the use of various market value management tools by listed companies, including cash dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and equity incentives, to enhance investment value and return to investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Value Management Tools - Cash dividends and share buybacks have become frequently used tools in the market value management toolbox, with companies encouraged to establish clear mechanisms for share repurchase and to develop and disclose medium- to long-term dividend plans [1][2]. - As of October 31, 2023, 1,195 companies in China's stock market have announced 1,525 share buyback plans for 2025, with a total buyback amount of 92.3 billion yuan, of which 36% was funded by self-owned capital and 26% was for cancellation [2]. - The total cash dividend amount across the market reached 734.9 billion yuan, with 89 companies distributing over 1 billion yuan in dividends within the year [2]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The past year has seen a vibrant M&A market, particularly in the "hard technology" sector, with notable cases such as the acquisition of 72.33% of Chip Alliance's shares and the merger of Haiguang Information with Zhongke Shuguang [3]. - State-owned enterprises are also actively engaging in professional integration, exemplified by China Shenhua's plan to consolidate 13 energy companies and Guotai Junan's merger with Haitong Securities [3]. - Policy support has been a key driver for the active M&A market, with various reforms and guidelines aimed at enhancing the efficiency and vitality of mergers and acquisitions [3]. Group 3: Equity Incentives - Equity incentives have been highlighted as a significant market value management tool, with companies encouraged to establish long-term incentive mechanisms [4][5]. - By mid-2023, nearly 3,500 listed companies had implemented equity incentive or employee stock ownership plans, representing 64% of all A-share listed companies [5]. - The recognition of equity incentives as a market value management strategy has deepened, with more companies expected to adopt these tools to enhance long-term value [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of developing a robust financial market and promoting direct financing through equity and bond markets to optimize financing structures and reduce corporate financing costs, which is crucial for stimulating market vitality and supporting high-quality economic development [3][13] - The A-share market has shown significant growth in trading volume, with the average daily trading volume reaching 20,438 billion yuan, a 1.6% increase from the previous period and a 1.0% increase year-on-year [1][17] - The insurance sector is experiencing a structural differentiation, with life insurance premiums showing a temporary slowdown while property insurance premiums are growing steadily [14] Summary by Sections Market and Sector Performance - The non-bank financial Shenwan index increased by 0.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among all primary industries [2][12] - The securities sector declined by 1.01%, while the insurance sector rose by 2.63%, and internet finance increased by 1.83% [2][12] Securities: Development of Direct Financing - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a well-functioning financial market that caters to various investment and financing needs, advocating for the development of direct financing through equity and bond markets [3][13] Insurance: Premium Trends - In September, life insurance premiums decreased to 1,962 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, while property insurance premiums rose to 1,511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [14] Market Indicators - As of November 13, 2025, the margin balance in the two markets reached 25,065.19 billion yuan, a 0.31% increase from the previous period and a 59.95% increase compared to the average level in 2024 [1][17]