2026 年 01 月 11 日 《公募费率改革收官, 非银板块向上突破 动能充盈——非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/29-2025/12/31)》 2026/01/05 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 -- 2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 万宏源研究微信服务 续看好全年非银板块价值重 非银金融行业周报（2026/1/5-2026/1/9） 本期投资提示: 时代人行业 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 苏研究招 0 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 1.90%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.89pc ...

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 740 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 740 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 0。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 855 元/ 方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 760 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、 冷杉在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到1月3日，1月从新西兰出发的船只总共有1条，其中有1条去往中国大陆，0条去往中国台湾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the U.S. job market continues to experience low hiring and low layoffs as of December, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.4%, interrupting its upward trend [1] Group 1: Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.4%, which was unexpected and breaks the trend of rising unemployment [1] - New job additions are showing a slowing trend, suggesting potential downward revisions in future annual data [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has already implemented three interest rate cuts, and with the unemployment rate not increasing further, there is still time and space for the Fed to consider pausing rate cuts in January [1]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，12月美国就业市场低招聘、低裁员的状态仍在持续。一方 面，失业率超预期回落至4.4%，中断了持续回升的势头；但另一方面，新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续 年度修正或有进一步下调。在已连续三次降息且失业率未进一步走高的情况下，1月份美联储仍有时间 与空间选择暂停降息。 核心观点如下： 失业率回落：市场担忧暂缓。短期内市场对美国就业持续恶化的担忧或暂时缓解。一方面，美国12月失 业率超预期回落至4.4%，11月失业率也下修至4.5%，失业率恶化势头有所中断。U6失业率也有明显回 落，边缘就业群体压力有所减轻。另一方面，12月平均每周工作时长虽有回落但仍处于稳定区间，平均 时薪增速有所回升，初次申请失业金人数在12月以来也维持稳定。 就业市场："冻结"状态仍在持续。虽然失业率攀升的警报暂时解除，但新增就业仍处于偏弱状态。12月 美国非农新增就业5万人，不及市场预期（6.5万人）。此外，10与11月新增非农就业共计下修7.6万人。 从行业结构来看，商品生产行业新增就业疲弱，服务生产行业新增就业仍主要集中在教育、医疗保健、 休闲酒店业。私人部门移动三个月新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续的年度 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market maintained low hiring and low layoffs in December, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.4%, ending a continuous upward trend [1] - Despite the drop in unemployment, job additions are slowing down, and future annual revisions may lead to further downward adjustments [1] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause interest rate cuts, as the unemployment rate did not rise further and multiple indicators suggest a low risk of job market slowdown [1] - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, the market anticipates only a 5% probability of a rate cut in January [1] - The market still expects two rate cuts in 2026, with the timing pushed to June and September [1] - Key events to watch for rising rate cut expectations include the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair [1]

责任编辑：王永生 国泰海通研报称，12 月美国就业市场低招聘、低裁员的状态仍在持续。一方面，失业率超预期回落至 4.4%，中断了持续回升的势头；但另一方面，新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续年度修正或有进一步下 调。由于 12 月失业率尚未进一步走高且较多就业指标显示美国就业市场失速风险尚低，在已经连续三 次降息的基础上，美联储或仍有暂停降息的空间。根据 CME 数据，非农数据公布后，市场预期 1 月降 息的概率仅为 5%。2026 年市场仍预期美联储将降息两次，但降息时点推后至了 2026 年 6 月与 9月。 后续降息预期升温的事件催化或需主要关注新任美联储主席任命与表态。 国泰海通研报称，12 月美国就业市场低招聘、低裁员的状态仍在持续。一方面，失业率超预期回落至 4.4%，中断了持续回升的势头；但另一方面，新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续年度修正或有进一步下 调。由于 12 月失业率尚未进一步走高且较多就业指标显示美国就业市场失速风险尚低，在已经连续三 次降息的基础上，美联储或仍有暂停降息的空间。根据 CME 数据，非农数据公布后，市场预期 1 月降 息的概率仅为 5%。2026 年市场仍预期美联储将降息两次，但降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan aims to become a leading investment bank with international competitiveness and market leadership by focusing on high-quality development and effective governance during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2][17]. Financial Performance - As of the first three quarters of 2025, Guotai Junan achieved a total operating income of 45.892 billion yuan, a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.074 billion yuan, and a net profit of 16.304 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, maintaining a leading position in the industry [1]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes the importance of functionality over mere scale, aiming to enhance development quality and efficiency through integration and restructuring, which is seen as a significant case in the industry since the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" [1][4]. Wealth Management - Guotai Junan is advancing its wealth management transformation, focusing on asset allocation and enhancing its service capabilities for over 200 million stockholders and 700 million fund investors [5]. Technology and Innovation - The company is committed to financial technology innovation, having made significant investments in technology, including the establishment of a comprehensive database and the development of advanced trading systems [12][11]. International Operations - Guotai Junan has played a crucial role in facilitating capital market connectivity, completing 39 equity financing transactions in Hong Kong and ranking first in bond issuance volume in the market [7]. Corporate Governance and Culture - The company integrates party leadership with corporate governance, emphasizing a strong corporate culture that reflects long-termism and compliance [15][16]. Future Outlook - Guotai Junan plans to continue enhancing its core competitiveness and market influence, aiming to support the modernization of China's financial sector and contribute to the global capital market [6][17].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The banking sector shows a continued growth trend in social financing, with a marginal decrease in the contribution of government bonds. Corporate bonds increased by 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year, becoming the main increment in social financing. However, the demand for loans remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan in new RMB loans in November [5][44]. - The securities industry has seen multiple core indicators reach historical highs in 2025, with total stock fund transaction volume exceeding 500 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 70%. The primary market has rebounded, with IPO and refinancing scales increasing by 95.64% and 326.17% respectively, indicating improved market liquidity and financing conditions [3][46]. - The insurance sector reported a total original premium income of 57,629 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. Life insurance companies saw a 9.1% increase in premium income, while property insurance companies grew by 3.9% [4][47]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 8, 2026, the banking, securities, and insurance indices changed by -0.87%, +0.91%, and +1.95% respectively, while the CSI 300 index increased by +2.05%. Among 31 industries, the banking and non-banking sectors ranked 29th and 21st in performance [5][13]. Valuation Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.74, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.79, 0.61, 0.71, and 0.63 respectively. Notably, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Ningbo Bank have the highest valuations at 0.96, 0.95, and 0.87 [22][24]. Recent Market Indicators - The one-year MLF operation rate is 2.0%, with LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.50% for five years. The average interbank borrowing rates for one day, seven days, and fourteen days are 1.33%, 1.50%, and 1.60% respectively [29][30]. Industry News - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has released guidelines for data classification and grading in the insurance asset management industry, effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing data security management standards [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of the securities industry in China's modernization and financial strength, highlighting the need for firms to focus on core functions, governance, and differentiated development to seize opportunities in the evolving capital market [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Guotai Junan Securities has achieved a total asset milestone of over 2 trillion yuan, marking it as the largest "A+H" dual-listing merger in China's securities history [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guotai Junan reported a cumulative operating income of 45.892 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.074 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. - The company aims to leverage the new round of capital market reforms to enhance its development quality and efficiency, aspiring to become a first-class investment bank with international competitiveness [2][3]. Group 2: Functional Focus and Innovation - The company prioritizes functionality over mere scale, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and focusing on hard technology investments [3]. - Guotai Junan has facilitated over 100 hard technology companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, showcasing its commitment to supporting innovation [3]. - The firm is advancing its wealth management transformation, aiming to enhance its asset allocation capabilities and introduce innovative digital operating models [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Internationalization - Guotai Junan has played a significant role in bridging domestic and international capital flows, completing 39 equity financing deals in Hong Kong and ranking high in bond issuance [6]. - The company is focused on enhancing its global service network, covering 17 countries and regions, to better serve both domestic and international clients [9]. - The firm aims to strengthen its international business capabilities and enhance its influence in global capital allocation and asset pricing [6][9]. Group 4: Organizational Development and Cultural Integration - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is seen as a critical step towards building a first-class investment bank, with a focus on integrating resources and enhancing operational efficiency [7][8]. - The company emphasizes a strong corporate culture that aligns with its strategic goals, promoting values such as compliance, integrity, and long-term partnership [11]. - Guotai Junan is committed to high-quality talent management, ensuring that its workforce is well-equipped to meet the challenges of the evolving financial landscape [12].

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping industry has experienced a four-year upward trend, with expectations that tanker profitability could reach a ten-year high by 2025. The capital market shows significant divergence regarding future trends in oil shipping, indicating potential opportunities for investment [1]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Long-term Logic - The first phase of the oil shipping boom is driven by geopolitical conflicts, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has restructured global oil trade and increased average shipping distances, leading to a significant rise in demand [1]. - The second phase is anticipated to be driven by global oil production increases, particularly with OPEC+ expected to commence production increases in April 2025, transitioning from a reduction to an expansion phase in global oil supply [1]. - The aging fleet of oil tankers, combined with stricter environmental regulations and sanctions on shadow fleets, is expected to maintain a rigid supply of compliant market capacity, supporting continued demand growth in the oil shipping sector [1]. Group 2: 2025 Outlook - The oil shipping market is projected to experience a significant recovery in 2025, with tanker capacity utilization expected to rise to threshold levels, making rates sensitive to marginal supply and demand changes [2]. - The average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCTCE) are estimated to reach $51,000 in 2025, surpassing the $36,000 forecast for 2023-2024, indicating a potential ten-year high in tanker profitability [2]. - The oil shipping industry has been on an upward trajectory since 2022, marking four consecutive years of growth [2]. Group 3: Gray Market and Compliance - The tightening of sanctions by the U.S. on Iran and shadow fleets has led to a decline in operational efficiency for these fleets, while the shift of India from Russian oil to compliant crude is expected to benefit the compliant market [3]. - Recent U.S. measures against Venezuela may impact its oil exports, potentially driving an increase in compliant oil production and benefiting the compliant market supply [3]. - Future geopolitical developments, particularly regarding sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, could significantly expand the compliant oil shipping market and reduce the operational space for shadow fleets, accelerating the dismantling of older tankers [3].