Guotai Haitong Securities(601211)
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锌产业链周度报告:有色及贵金属组季先飞-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 09:12
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Zinc shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic", and the export window has opened [2][3][5] - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventory continues, while the galvanizing operation rate has rebounded [3] - Domestic supply pressure remains high, with the traditional peak consumption season approaching its end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [5] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the night - session closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,942.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 88,687 lots, a decrease of 86,091 lots compared to the previous week; the open interest was 77,222 lots, a decrease of 29,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11,101 lots, a decrease of 5,565 lots; the open interest was 224,271 lots, an increase of 4,032 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6,673 tons to 67,317 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,677 tons to 109,627 tons; social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 162,700 tons; LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [10][11] 3.2.3 Operation Rate - The smelting operation rate has declined, and the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp and a significant change in the LME CASH - 3M structure [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - shaped structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The LME total inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a historical low. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased [39] - Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high [40] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased and is at a historical high. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historical high. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Secondary Zinc Raw Materials - Not comprehensively summarized in the report 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive, the downstream monthly operation rate has slightly rebounded, and most are at a historical low - to - median level. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [56][59][73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, but no comprehensive conclusion is drawn [74][75][76]
卓锦股份连亏3年半 2021年上市即巅峰国泰海通保荐


Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-19 08:35
Core Points - Zhuojin Co., Ltd. (688701.SH) reported a significant decline in revenue and continued net losses for the first half of 2025, with operating income of 41.35 million yuan, down 64.96% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -18.92 million yuan, compared to -23.57 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2][3] Financial Performance Summary - **Operating Income**: 41.35 million yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 64.96% from 118 million yuan in H1 2024 [1][2] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was -18.92 million yuan in H1 2025, an improvement from -23.57 million yuan in H1 2024 [1][2] - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities was 11.62 million yuan in H1 2025, a significant increase from -7.02 million yuan in H1 2024, marking a 265.43% change [1][2] - **Annual Performance**: For the full year 2024, the company reported an operating income of 242.49 million yuan, down 30.08% from 346.83 million yuan in 2023, with a net profit of -82.20 million yuan [3] - **Cumulative Losses**: The company has reported net losses for three consecutive years, with figures of -93.87 million yuan, -121 million yuan, and -82.20 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [3] Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details - Zhuojin Co., Ltd. was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on September 16, 2021, with an initial public offering of 33.57 million shares at a price of 7.48 yuan per share [4] - The total funds raised during the IPO amounted to 251 million yuan, with a net amount of 201 million yuan after deducting issuance costs, which was 119 million yuan less than originally planned [4][5]
黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 08:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong remained flat, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were in short supply [4]. - The total number of ships departing from New Zealand in October was 19, with 15 going to mainland China. It is expected that 1750000 cubic meters will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 10, the daily shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 39100 cubic meters compared with the previous week [6][13]. - As of October 17, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 2.1% compared with the previous week, showing a weak - oscillating trend. The contango spread further widened [19]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Supply - As of October 12, 19 ships departed from New Zealand in October, with 15 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. It is expected that 19 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival of 1.75 million cubic meters in October [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: As of the week of October 10, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 12600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 8600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 5800 cubic meters) [6][13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1181800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 26000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 405100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34300 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 357400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 52400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 118500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 5000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2062800 cubic meters, an increase of 39100 cubic meters compared with the previous week [6][13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of October 17, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 804 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 2.1% compared with the previous week. The market showed a weak - oscillating trend, and the contango spread further widened. The 11 - 01 spread was - 31.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 spread was - 31 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 spread was 0.5 yuan/cubic meter [19] 3.4 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rates**: As of the week of October 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2069 points, an increase of 133 points (+6.9%) compared with the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.4% compared with the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, an increase of 12.9% compared with the previous week. The US dollar index oscillated weakly. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.06% week - on - week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.2% to 1.744 [6][55][56]
生猪:二育刺激效果不及预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 08:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs saw price fluctuations. Group slaughter schedules returned to normal, with farmers reluctant to sell, resulting in a loose supply. Post - festival slaughter volume decreased, but some second - fattening operations actively entered the market. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. In the futures market, prices were weak, and the basis of the LH2511 contract changed from negative to positive [1][2] - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is on the rise, and demand is decreasing. The inventory cycle will shift from inventory accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still searching for a bottom. For the LH2511 futures contract, attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review (10.13 - 10.19) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 20.4 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan rose from 11.13 yuan/kg last week to 11.38 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,566 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight was 124.67KG, a 0.17% increase from last week [1] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,020 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,050 yuan/ton (compared to 11,320 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 330 yuan/ton (compared to - 190 yuan/ton last week) [2] 2. Market Outlook (10.20 - 10.26) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The inventory cycle is shifting from accumulation to destocking, and the spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3] Futures Market - The LH2511 contract price closed at 11,050 yuan/ton on October 17th. With group incremental slaughter and second - fattening re - entering the market, the inventory cycle is still in the passive accumulation stage. The 11 - month contract is still at a premium near delivery. Attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market, with a short - term support level of 10,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - This week's basis was 330 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread was - 620 yuan/ton [10] - In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; pork imports were 81,700 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month decrease [12]
国泰海通资管陶耿:数智化浪潮推动证券投资成“投资科学”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-18 11:31
Core Viewpoint - The current wave of digitalization and intelligence is driving securities investment towards a modern "investment science" system, with index investment and quantitative investment being key components of this evolution [1] Group 1: Index Investment - Index investment is characterized by transparency, low cost, and risk diversification, representing a concentrated embodiment of standardized technological thinking [1] Group 2: Quantitative Investment - Quantitative investment is based on mathematical models and computational power, serving as an engineering practice of systematic methodological principles [1]
国芯科技跌6.14% 2022上市超募16.6亿国泰海通保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-17 09:17
Group 1 - Guoxin Technology (国芯科技) closed at 27.08 yuan, with a decline of 6.14% [1] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on January 6, 2022, with an initial stock issuance of 60 million shares at a price of 41.98 yuan per share [1] - The total funds raised from the initial public offering (IPO) amounted to 2.519 billion yuan, with a net amount of 2.262 billion yuan after deducting issuance costs, exceeding the original plan by 1.66 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The funds raised are intended for projects including cloud information security chip design and industrialization, SoC chip design platform based on C*Core CPU core, and CPU core design based on RISC-V architecture [1] - The total issuance costs for the IPO were 256 million yuan, including underwriting fees of 237 million yuan and sponsorship fees of 943,400 yuan [1] Group 3 - On June 21, 2023, Guoxin Technology announced a cash dividend of 0.25186 yuan per share (including tax) and a stock bonus of 0.402978 shares per share [2] - The record date for the dividend distribution was June 28, 2023, and the ex-dividend date was June 29, 2023 [2]
研报掘金丨国泰海通:维持华泰证券“增持”评级,上线AI涨乐APP,打造极致交互体验
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-17 08:53
Core Insights - Huatai Securities launched the AI Zhangle APP on October 15, which focuses on interactive user experience in smart investment advisory services [1] - The introduction of AI Zhangle is expected to enhance Huatai's competitive advantage in servicing long-tail customers, leading to improved profitability in the future [1] Summary by Categories Product Development - The AI Zhangle APP aims to provide an exceptional user experience, which is anticipated to improve Huatai Securities' online customer acquisition and retention capabilities [1] Market Position - The new app is expected to help increase the company's market share in brokerage services by enhancing customer service for long-tail clients [1] Financial Outlook - The formation of a future profit model from AI Zhangle is projected to further boost the company's profitability [1] - Huatai Securities is given a target price of 28.18 yuan based on a 1.33x price-to-book ratio, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1]
国泰海通:维持华泰证券“增持”评级,上线AI涨乐APP,打造极致交互体验
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 07:36
国泰海通证券研报指出,10月15日,华泰证券上线AI涨乐APP。AI涨乐打造了注重交互体验的智能投 顾,预计将巩固提升华泰长尾客户服务的竞争优势,未来盈利模式的形成将进一步增厚公司盈利。该行 认为AI涨乐预计将巩固提升华泰长尾客户服务的竞争优势,未来盈利模式的形成将进一步增厚公司盈 利。1)AI涨乐凭借极致用户体验有望进一步提升华泰证券线上获客与留客能力,助力提升公司经纪业 务市场份额;2)未来,盈利模式的形成将进一步增厚公司盈利,提升公司盈利水平。考虑到公司与可 比公司差异,在可比公司平均PB基础上折价,给予公司1.33xPB,维持目标价28.18元,维持"增持"评 级。 ...
网宿科技股价跌5.04%,国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓,持有229.42万股浮亏损失133.06万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 07:14
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Wangsu Technology's stock price dropped by 5.04% to 10.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.042 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.05%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 26.857 billion CNY [1] - Wangsu Technology, established on January 26, 2000, and listed on October 30, 2009, specializes in providing global content delivery network (CDN), internet data center (IDC) services, and cloud computing services. The revenue composition is as follows: CDN and edge computing 64.34%, security and value-added services 27.51%, IDC and liquid cooling 5.36%, and merchandise sales and others 2.79% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management heavily invested in Wangsu Technology. The Guotai Junan CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (014155) held 2.2942 million shares in the second quarter, accounting for 1.2% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 1.3306 million CNY [2] - The Guotai Junan CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (014155) was established on December 15, 2021, with a latest scale of 1.451 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 30.1%, ranking 1617 out of 4218 in its category; the one-year return is 37.9%, ranking 1403 out of 3865; and since inception, the return is 27.03% [2]
徐工机械股价跌5.02%,国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓,持有10.37万股浮亏损失6.12万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 06:37
Group 1 - XuGong Machinery experienced a decline of 5.02% on October 17, with a stock price of 11.16 CNY per share and a trading volume of 934 million CNY, resulting in a total market capitalization of 131.163 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on December 15, 1993, and listed on August 28, 1996, specializes in the research, manufacturing, sales, and service of various types of construction machinery, including lifting machinery, earth-moving machinery, and other engineering equipment [1] - The main revenue composition of XuGong Machinery includes: earth-moving machinery (31.05%), other engineering machinery and parts (28.09%), lifting machinery (19.11%), mining machinery (8.64%), aerial work machinery (8.34%), and pile machinery (4.77%) [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management has a significant position in XuGong Machinery, with Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A (017933) increasing its holdings by 10,300 shares in the second quarter, totaling 103,700 shares, which represents 6.42% of the fund's net value [2] - The Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A was established on March 1, 2023, with a latest scale of 8.0771 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 13.35%, ranking 5372 out of 8160 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Li Yu, has been in position for 2 years and 232 days, with the fund's total asset size at 12.5552 million CNY, and the best and worst fund returns during his tenure being -5.36% and -6.35%, respectively [3]