2月5日，21世纪经济报道记者获悉，原兴业证券全球首席策略分析师、研究院联席院长、海外研究中心总经理，知名海外策略分析师张忆东，已正式加盟 国泰海通（601211），拟出任海通国际证券执委会委员，股票研究部主管及首席经济学家。 目前，这一任命尚未公开披露，截至2月5日，在证券业协会官网仍无法查询到张忆东的个人从业登记信息。 正式转型海外业务 去年12月31日，张忆东在个人公众号"张忆东策略世界"发布声明称："经过长时间的慎重考虑，出于对自己职业生涯后半程的转型规划及家庭因素考量， 我已于日前正式向公司提出辞职申请，即将转型海外业务，专注于香港及海外资本市场的拓展。" 当时，兴业证券经济与金融研究院对此回复21世纪经济报道记者："研究院充分尊重其个人选择，并对张忆东为卖方研究及海外研究业务发展所作出的杰 出贡献表示衷心感谢。" 公开资料显示，张忆东，复旦大学国际金融系学士、硕士，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院EMBA，是卖方研究领域最具影响力的策略分析师之一，2001 年至今已深耕行业24年，先后十余次获得海外相关奖项评选第一名，是总量领域首位钻石分析师。 在兴业证券，张忆东工作了将近20年。2006年，张忆东加 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Yidong, a prominent strategist, has joined Guotai Junan after leaving his previous position at Industrial Securities, where he served as the co-director of the Economic and Financial Research Institute and Global Chief Strategist [1][2] - His new role at Guotai Junan includes being a member of the Executive Committee of Haitong International Securities and overseeing the stock research and sales trading departments, focusing on cross-border integration of research operations [1] - Zhang has over 20 years of experience in sell-side research, covering A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. markets, and has received numerous accolades, including being the first New Fortune Platinum and Diamond Analyst in the total research field [2] Group 2 - Zhang expressed his desire to focus on overseas business and contribute to telling China's financial story to global investors, emphasizing the importance of seizing China's asset pricing power [3] - He believes that the Chinese stock market is entering a historic opportunity comparable to the real estate boom after 1998, driven by the need for high-quality economic development [3][4] - The revitalization of the asset side of the balance sheet is seen as crucial for unlocking economic potential and achieving high-quality development goals by 2035 and 2049 [4] Group 3 - The stock market is viewed as a key engine for economic growth, similar to the role of real estate post-1998, with state-owned enterprises and asset revaluation leading the way [4] - The consensus among local governments is shifting towards asset securitization and leveraging state-owned resources, with the stock market serving as a pivotal mechanism for this transformation [4] - Zhang's recent insights suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run into 2026, driven by improving profitability and liquidity [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fiber optic industry is entering a price increase trend, driven by rising demand for G657A2 and other products, leading to reduced supply of G652D and longer delivery times [2][4] - The demand for fiber optics is significantly boosted by AI-driven data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) scenarios, with global fiber demand expected to continue rising [3][4] - The export performance of fiber optic and cable companies is strong, with overseas markets becoming an important growth point for the industry [3][6] Group 2 - The competition in computing power is driving a concentrated explosion in fiber demand, with AI data centers requiring significantly more fiber than traditional data centers [4][5] - The demand for specialty and multimode fibers is growing, with companies rapidly advancing in the development and application of hollow-core fibers [5] - Major domestic fiber optic manufacturers are expected to benefit from the price increase trend, with profit elasticity likely to be continuously revised upwards [6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the positive earnings forecasts from multiple securities firms, their stock prices have declined, raising concerns among investors about the disconnect between performance and market valuation [1][2][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of February 4, 2026, 29 securities firms have reported significant earnings growth for 2025, with notable performances including CITIC Securities achieving a net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan, setting a new industry record, and Guolian Minsheng's net profit soaring by 406% [1][3][4]. - The overall performance of the securities sector has been lackluster, with the CSI Securities Index showing a year-to-date decline of 1.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 3.36% [1][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - On February 2, 2026, the A-share market experienced a pullback, with securities stocks declining despite a subsequent rebound in the overall market on February 3, where the CSI Securities Index fell by 0.19% [2]. - However, on February 4, 2026, the securities sector saw a collective rise, with all 49 constituent stocks of the CSI Securities Index closing in the green, led by Hualin Securities with a 5.9% increase [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Analysts are questioning whether the valuation of the securities sector is set to recover, as many firms are expected to report strong earnings, yet the sector's stock prices remain depressed [3][8]. - The CSI Securities Index's annual growth of 2.54% in 2025 was significantly lower than the Shanghai Composite Index's 18.41% increase, indicating a persistent undervaluation of the sector [7][8]. Group 4: Growth Drivers - The growth in the securities sector is attributed to three main factors: improved market conditions leading to increased trading volumes, ongoing optimization of business structures among leading firms, and the release of policy benefits that enhance profitability channels [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with firms focusing on core business areas such as brokerage and proprietary trading, which are becoming the main engines of profit growth [6].

截至2026年2月5日收盘，中证全指证券公司指数(399975)一度涨近1%，收涨0.33%，样本股华林证券上 涨10.02%，华鑫股份上涨3.23%，国盛证券上涨2.59%，华泰证券上涨1.22%，东兴证券上涨1.16%。 Wind数据显示，1月融资融券新开户数达19.05万户，环比增长29.5%，同比大增157%。1月A股新开户 491.58万户，环比增长89%，同比增长213%，经纪业务延续较高景气度。市场活跃度提升与政策逆周期 调节同步推进，推动两融余额攀升至历史高位，机构普遍看好券商业绩因此获得提振。 随着资本市场持续活跃，上市券商2025年业绩表现备受关注。Wind数据显示，截至1月30日，有21家上 市券商披露了2025年业绩预告或业绩快报。头部券商中信证券、国泰君安等继续巩固市场领先地位，中 信证券2025年归母净利润超300亿元，国泰海通预计2025年归母净利润同比增速超100%。中小券商业绩 弹性更大，国联民生预计2025年净利润同比增速超400%。经纪业务、自营业务等成为上述上市券商 2025年业绩增长的核心驱动力。 中航证券表示，2025年资本市场交投活跃，叠加政策红利持续释放，上市券 ...

国泰海通主要观点如下： 1月船舶价格结构分化，新船价格震荡偏弱、二手船价格继续走强 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，1月全球新船价格指数为184.29点，同比下降2.69%、环比下 降0.19%；船舶价格结构分化，新船价格震荡偏弱、二手船价格继续走强。2025年我国船舶出口规模持 续扩大，出口占比维持高位。2026年开年以来多类型船舶交付及新接订单稳步推进，国产甲醇双燃料动 力技术等绿色动力技术应用持续落地。 1)中船澄西顺利完成希腊籍"安特普"轮修理项目。该轮于2026年1月1日完工出厂，历时16天完成全部修 缮任务。作为重点修船项目，本次高效交付体现了中船澄西在复杂修理工程领域的履约能力和项目组织 能力。2)广船国际4.95万吨甲醇双燃料化学品船开启试航。该船为系列船第4艘，标志国产甲醇双燃料 动力技术在实船应用中的成熟度进一步提升，推动广船国际在绿色环保船型领域竞争力持续增强。3)武 昌造船新签9艘支线集装箱船订单生效。合同包括5艘1100TEU船型和4艘1800TEU船型，有助于武昌造 船巩固在支线集装箱船细分市场的份额，并支撑后续订单结构优化和产能利用率提升。 数据跟踪 截至2月02日，布伦 ...

注：标的指数成分股仅做展示，不作为个股推介。 最新数据显示，1月融资融券新开户数达19.05万户，环比增长29.5%，同比大增157%。1月A股新开户 491.58万户，环比增长89%，同比增长213%，经纪业务延续较高景气度。市场活跃度提升与政策逆周期 调节同步推进，推动两融余额攀升至历史高位，机构普遍看好券商业绩因此获得提振。 上市券商业绩密集预喜。据统计，截至1月30日有21家上市券商披露了2025年业绩预告或业绩快报。头 部券商中信证券、国泰君安等继续巩固市场领先地位，中信证券2025年归母净利润超300亿元，国泰海 通预计2025年归母净利润同比增速超100%。中小券商业绩弹性更大，国联民生预计2025年净利润同比 增速超400%。经纪业务、自营业务等成为上述上市券商2025年业绩增长的核心驱动力。业内人士表 示，2025年A股市场活跃，券商业绩高景气度延续，建议关注业绩向好带来的券商板块投资机会。 今日午后，A股券商股涨幅进一步扩大，证券ETF汇添富(560090)盘中一度涨近1%，现仍涨0.39%，成 交额再度放量，盘中成交已超2.15亿元。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 估直权車 | 涨跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Yidong has officially joined Guotai Junan, taking on the roles of Executive Committee Member, Head of Equity Research, and Chief Economist, focusing on overseas business while reducing domestic sell-side operations [1][6]. Group 1: Career Transition - Zhang Yidong announced his departure from his previous position on December 31, 2022, citing career transformation and family considerations as reasons for his shift towards overseas business, particularly in Hong Kong and international capital markets [1][7]. - He has over 20 years of experience at Industrial Securities, consistently ranking first in overseas strategy analysis [5][11]. Group 2: Educational Background - Zhang holds a Bachelor's and Master's degree in International Finance from Fudan University and an EMBA from Shanghai Jiao Tong University [4][10]. Group 3: Rankings and Achievements - Zhang has received numerous accolades, including being ranked first in overseas market research by New Fortune in 2023 and 2024, and first in strategy research by Crystal Ball in 2025 [5][11]. Group 4: Market Outlook for 2026 - Zhang predicts that the Chinese bull market will continue, with the US dollar depreciating further but at a reduced rate, and the RMB potentially returning to the 6 range, possibly appreciating to 6.8 in the second half of the year [6][12]. - He emphasizes that the market conditions in 2026 will be complex, not a straightforward bull market, and will be characterized by volatility [6][12]. - Key growth areas include technology, particularly AI applications, semiconductor, military technology, and energy technology [6][12]. - Zhang identifies dividend assets as strategically high-probability investments in a high-debt, low-interest environment, suggesting a focus on gold and other strategic asset allocations [6][12]. - He anticipates that the Hong Kong bull market will continue, driven by profitability and liquidity [6][12].

Group 1 - Indonesia's export policy adjustment significantly reduces production quotas, reflecting a shift in the government's strategy for resource exports, including nickel and coal, aimed at controlling supply and increasing prices [1][2] - In February 2026, Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2] - Indonesia's coal production for 2025 is projected at 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with potential further reductions to 600 million tons in 2026, representing a 24% decline from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Global coal supply-demand balance may begin to shift in 2026, with supply contraction and rising demand, indicating a potential upward price cycle for coal [3] - Indonesia is expected to export 524 million tons of coal in 2025, a 6.1% decrease, and if production is limited to 600 million tons in 2026, exports could drop to 450 million tons, impacting global shipping trade [3] - Other countries, including Australia and Russia, are also facing production declines, contributing to a tightening global coal market [3] Group 3 - China's coal imports from Indonesia are projected to decline further in 2026, with an expected total of around 45 million tons, a decrease of approximately 4 million tons [4] - In 2025, Indonesia is expected to export 21 million tons of coal to China, a 10.6% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports [4] - Domestic coal prices in China are anticipated to recover in 2026, ending a four-year decline, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [4] Group 4 - Companies with a clear outlook for volume and price elasticity over the next five years are recommended for investment, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), China Coal Energy (601898), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001), and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [5] - Yancoal Australia (03668) is also recommended for investment in the Hong Kong market [5]

Group 1 - Zhang Yidong has officially joined Guotai Junan as a member of the Executive Committee of Haitong International Securities, responsible for the stock research and sales trading departments, focusing on cross-border integration of research business and investment in the era of "Investing in China" and "Chinese Investment" [1] - Zhang Yidong has 15 years of experience in the securities industry, with notable achievements including being the first analyst to win five major awards in the industry, showcasing his expertise in strategy research [3] - Zhang Yidong's core viewpoint emphasizes a long-term bullish market outlook, suggesting that investors should overcome short-term volatility fears and focus on medium to long-term strategies, predicting a sustained upward trend in the capital market [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from central policy support, with regulatory encouragement for listings and reforms enhancing market capacity, attracting global funds to quality assets [4] - Zhang Yidong identifies "patient capital" as a market leader, including pension funds and insurance, which will likely expand through ETFs, allowing ordinary investors to participate in the capital market [5] - The consensus among local governments is moving towards asset securitization and leveraging state-owned resources, with the stock market being a key mechanism for revitalizing assets [5] Group 3 - Zhang Yidong outlines two main directions and three lines of investment focus: growth sectors like AI and technology, and value sectors including high-dividend stocks and strategic assets benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [6][7] - The anticipated weakening of the US dollar and continued liquidity easing by the Federal Reserve are seen as significant factors for the Chinese stock market in the coming year [8] - There are indications of global capital returning, particularly from regions connected to China, with expectations of a more favorable environment for foreign investment in technology and consumption sectors [9]