根据统计的现货电价可以发现，山东国庆8天中仅1天现货最低价为负，好于去年国庆7天中5天现货最低 价为负数，可能是酒店、餐饮、娱乐等服务业用电负荷急剧攀升，颠覆了市场此前对假日用电低谷的刻 板印象，弥补了工业负荷的下降。 煤电减碳掺烧的方案和成本 根据电联新媒公众号，CCUS技术成熟但能耗和成本仍然较高，预计我国每年驱油封存二氧化碳潜力可 达到5000万吨到1亿吨；深部咸水层封存总量可达万亿吨以上。掺烧生物质技术成熟，但受生物质资源 规模、收集、区位和时间匹配等制约较大。煤电掺氨已初步开展工程验证，实现了25%~35%掺烧比 例，技术上日趋成熟；需绿氨成本下降。预计远期煤电降碳约50%，总成本仍不高于气电。另文章认 为：灵活高效煤电机组相较于常规煤电机组的单位投资预计增加约100元/千瓦。 水电业绩Q3普遍较好 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，国庆节前，国资委开会，要求稳定电价煤价，防止内卷式恶 性竞争，电力行业首提反内卷，节后第一周电力板块表现不错(华能国际、华电国际都涨了3%以上)。临 近Q3季报，据测算，火电公司普遍Q3增速会继续增长，预计主要在30-80%之间，传统火电龙头业绩预 计增速都不错。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has developed a "three-part" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions. This framework aims to diversify macro risks, set long-term allocation benchmarks, and adjust based on short-term risk-return characteristics and significant events [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The SAA framework aims to mitigate macro risks by establishing a long-term allocation benchmark to ensure portfolio stability [1][10]. - The recommended asset allocation for October includes 41.25% in equities, 45% in bonds, and 13.75% in commodities, with specific allocations for A-shares, H-shares, and gold [1][2]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The TAA approach utilizes quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics, allowing for moderate adjustments to portfolio weights to enhance returns [1][10]. - The company remains optimistic about Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares and H-shares, while maintaining a neutral stance on bonds and a slightly optimistic view on commodities, particularly gold [2][3]. Group 3: Major Events Review - The company emphasizes the importance of subjective review of major events in conjunction with quantitative results to refine investment strategies, particularly in response to geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility [1][52]. - Recent events, such as the Chinese government's financial reforms and the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments, are expected to influence market dynamics positively, particularly for A-shares and gold [54]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The performance of various asset classes has shown significant fluctuations, with notable increases in the Shanghai Composite Index and other Chinese indices over the past year, indicating a robust recovery in the equity market [6]. - The macro factor risk parity model has demonstrated effectiveness in enhancing returns while maintaining a balanced asset allocation, achieving an annualized return of 26.5% in 2025 with a Sharpe ratio of 2.59 [48][50].

国泰君安价值精选混合发起A（016382）成立日期2022年8月9日，最新规模925.76万。今年以来收益 5.23%，同类排名5740/8210；近一年收益17.18%，同类排名5059/7952；成立以来亏损4.99%。 国泰君安价值精选混合发起A（016382）基金经理为。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 10月15日，吉祥航空涨5.02%，截至发稿，报13.82元/股，成交2.17亿元，换手率0.74%，总市值301.83 亿元。 资料显示，上海吉祥航空股份有限公司位于上海市浦东新区康桥东路2弄，成立日期2006年3月23日，上 市日期2015年5月27日，公司主营业务涉及航空客货运输业务。主营业务收入构成为：客运收入 94.98%，货运收入3.75%，其他1.27%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓吉祥航空。国泰君安价值精选混合发起A（016382）二季度 持有股数3.26万股，占基金净值比例为3 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，双十一各平台宣传时不再突出"绝对低价"，主要通过简化优 惠规则+直接补贴消费者，优化购物体验、加速购买决策转化。从超头上播产品机制看，2025年多数化 妆品品牌简化赠品种类为"买正装送同款"，该行认为这一形式更加直观降低主产品到手单价，更精准化 让利消费者。双十一大促通常有利于品牌势能放大，重点推荐：1)25年至今大单品、新品牌放量趋势显 著的标的;2)稳健高增标的;3)预期筑底，有望迎来拐点。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 平台：周期延长、规则简化、补贴力度加大 从超头上播产品机制看，2025年多数品牌简化赠品种类为"买正装送同款"，该行认为这一形式更加直观 降低主产品到手单价，更精准化让利消费者。对比核心单品，部分外资高端品牌如资生堂、SK-II、雅 诗兰黛等提高售价、减少赠品规格，折扣力度较2024年同期收窄，该行判断主要因外资高端品牌经历 2020-2023年的价格下探后，单纯机制加深已经难以带来销售增量，因此考虑品牌形象长期价值，逐步 收窄折扣，回归对品牌的聚焦。大众品牌如欧莱雅小蜜罐面霜、珀莱雅红宝石面霜的两瓶装大规格SKU 均加大买赠力度，赠品精简为送同款面霜且 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，siRNA药物进入快速发展期，在罕见病领域验证其价值，目 前逐步进入了常见病的研发兑现阶段。因GalNac递送系统的效率和特异性高，且专利有突破空间，该 行认为这个机制的药物在致病基因或机制明确的疾病和肝内靶点的内卷程度会非常高，未来的破局或在 于对新疾病领域，特别是过去难以成药的靶点的探索，以及肝外递送系统的突破。小核酸药物行业近期 BD和数据催化密集，随着技术平台的成熟和适应症的不断拓展，属于小核酸药物的治疗时代将逐步开 启，该行重点关注siRNA药物在常见病大适应症的商业价值。 国泰海通主要观点如下: 技术升级和产品获批推动平台成熟，siRNA药物已从"罕见病"过渡到"常见病" 小核酸药物是继小分子和抗体药物后的第三浪，具有靶点拓展能力强、研发延展性强、药物作用长效且 不易耐药等特性。小核酸药物的种类多样，其中siRNA药物的安全性和长效性更好，已成为国内药企的 开发重点。自2016年起，随着GalNac递送系统的升级和完全修饰的应用，siRNA药物进入快速发展期， 在罕见病领域验证其价值，目前逐步进入了常见病的研发兑现阶段，在心血管疾病、慢乙肝、减重、抗 凝、自 ...

10月15日，山推股份涨5.19%，截至发稿，报11.95元/股，成交3.90亿元，换手率2.55%，总市值179.27 亿元。山推股份股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅11.05%。 截至发稿，李煜累计任职时间2年230天，现任基金资产总规模1255.52万元，任职期间最佳基金回 报-4.09%， 任职期间最差基金回报-5.09%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓山推股份。国泰君安高端装备混合发起A（017933）二季度 持有股数6.58万股，占基金净值比例为4.7%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约3.88万 元。连续3天上涨期间浮盈赚取7.44万元。 国泰君安高端装备混合发起A（017933）成立日期2023年3月1日，最新规模807.71万。今年以来收益 10.65%，同类排名5605/8161；近一年收益5.35%，同类排名6585/8015；成立以来亏损7.86%。 国泰君安 ...

A股行业配置：偏好科技与周期，内外资共振加码电子与有色金属。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研究报告称，节后外资资金和融资资金在节前短暂流出后重新回 流中国市场，ETF流入放缓，内外资共同加仓电子和有色金属。A股行业配置方面，偏好科技与周期， 内外资共振加码电子与有色金属。南下资金流入减少，外资边际流入发达市场。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 市场定价状态：本期市场成交保持活跃。 1)市场情绪(上升)：本期市场交易热度大回升，全A日均成交额上升至2.6亿，日均涨停家数升至71.6 家，最大连板数为7个，封板率上升至70.2%，龙虎榜上榜家数升至66家;2)赚钱效应(上升)：本期个股上 涨比例上升至54.1%，全A个股周度收益中位数上升至0.4%;3)交易集中度(上升)：行业交易集中度持续 提升，本期行业换手率历史分位数处于90%以上的行业有11个，其中汽车换手率连续四期维持榜首。 A股资金流动：节后外资和融资资金回流市场，ETF资金流入放缓。 1)公募：本期偏股基金新发规模下降至8.7亿，各类公募基金股票较上期减仓;2)私募：10月私募信心指 数小幅下降，仓位持续逼近年内最高(截至09/19);3)外资： ...

国泰海通证券日前研报指出，中国中免2025年国庆中秋假期离岛免税表现较好，市内免税店逐步落地， 中长期有望贡献业绩增量。国庆中秋假期海南消费市场人气旺活力足，中免汇聚"首店+首发"吸引消费 客群。根据海南省新闻办，2025年中秋国庆假期预计进出海南岛客流总量预计184.25万人次，日均客流 量同比增长6.28%。2025年8月26日，中免集团、深圳免税集团、深业集团联合打造的深圳市内免税 店，在福田区深业上城开业。项目位于福田区核心商圈深业上城L1层，占地近3000平方米，整体空间 布局分为免税商品区和有税商品区。免税商品整体较有税专柜普遍低11%-25%，离境退税商品可享约 9%退税额度。同日，由中免集团、广百股份、岭南控股、白云机场联手打造的广州市内免税店开业。 参考同行业可比公司估值，给予2025年40倍PE，给予目标价81.6元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain a growth trend in net profit for Q3 2025, continuing the over 50% year-on-year increase seen in the first half of 2025, driven by strong market trading volumes [1][8]. Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q3 2025 reached 2.04 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 153% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37% [1][3]. - The average margin financing and securities lending balance for Q3 2025 was 2.12 trillion yuan, up 49% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The Hong Kong market saw an average daily turnover (ADT) of 2,550 billion HKD year-to-date, a 93% increase compared to 2024 [6][7]. Investment Business - The stock market performed well, with key indices reaching new highs in 2025: the CSI 300 index increased by 17.90%, the ChiNext index by 50.40%, and the STAR 50 index by 49.02% [1][2]. Bond Market - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.86% during the reporting period, while the CSI All Bond Index fell by 1.78% [2]. - Despite an increase in equity exposure by most brokerages, the bond market's decline led to a slight decrease in proprietary trading income for Q3 2025 [2]. Brokerage and Margin Financing Business - The brokerage sector is expected to generate 437 billion yuan in revenue for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 111% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43% [3]. - New A-share accounts opened in September 2025 totaled 2.9372 million, marking a 61% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Banking Business - The A-share IPO scale for Q3 2025 was 38 billion yuan, up 148% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The total scale of refinancing (including private placements, rights issues, and preferred shares) was 74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189% [4]. Asset Management Business - The market saw a significant recovery in newly established equity funds, with 2,093 million units created in Q3 2025, a 304% year-on-year increase [5]. - The total scale of ETFs reached 5.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 31% increase from the end of Q2 2025 [5]. International Business - The performance of the Hong Kong market and IPO activities has been active, with 71 new companies listed year-to-date, raising 187.3 billion HKD [6][7]. - The top brokerages are expected to maintain high growth in their overseas businesses, particularly those that completed capital increases for international subsidiaries [7]. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to achieve a net profit of 610 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54% [8]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in three main lines: strong comprehensive institutions benefiting from industry competition optimization, brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business competitiveness [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic tourism during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a total of 888 million trips made, representing a 16.1% increase compared to 2024 and a 13.6% increase compared to 2019 [1] - Total spending by domestic tourists reached 809.02 billion yuan, marking a 15.4% increase from 2024 and a 24.5% increase from 2019 [1] - The average spending per customer was 911 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.6% from 2024 but an increase of 9.7% from 2019 [1] Domestic Tourism Performance - Major scenic spots reported impressive visitor numbers, with Huangshan receiving 199,800 visitors, a 7.54% increase from the previous year [2] - Changbai Mountain welcomed 221,700 visitors, achieving both "flow" and "quality" improvements [2] - Tianshan Tianchi received over 120,000 visitors, generating more than 61 million yuan in tourism revenue [2] Duty-Free Shopping Growth - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 944 million yuan during the holiday, with 122,900 shoppers, reflecting increases of 13.6% and 3.2% respectively from 2024 [3] - The average shopping amount per person was 7,685 yuan, up 10% from the previous year [3] - The ongoing duty-free shopping trend is contributing to a double-digit growth in Hainan's tourism retail market [3] Travel Volume Records - The Ministry of Transport reported a record high of 2.432 billion cross-regional trips during the holiday, averaging 304 million trips per day, a 6.2% increase from 2024 [4] - Railway passenger volume was estimated at 153.96 million, with a daily average of 19.24 million, up 2.6% year-on-year [4] - Road travel was projected at 2.24751 billion trips, with a daily average of 28.094 million, reflecting a 6.5% increase [4] Macau Tourism Highlights - Macau welcomed 1.144 million visitors during the holiday, averaging 143,000 per day, a 1.9% increase from 2024 [5] - The peak day saw 191,000 visitors, setting a record for the highest daily visitor count during the National Day holiday [5] - Hotel occupancy rates in Macau averaged 87.9% during the holiday period [5]