1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that the cost - end support is weak, and filament prices are under pressure. It provides detailed data on various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance** - **Stock Price Changes**: As of September 12, 2025, the stock prices of private refining companies showed different trends. For example, New Fengming had a weekly increase of 7.1%, while Hengli Petrochemical had a weekly decrease of 1.4% [9]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report provides the net profit forecasts of these companies from 2024 to 2027. For instance, the expected net profit of Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2025 is 2.616 billion yuan [9]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads** - **International Crude Oil**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week was 66.5 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel (-1.8%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. The average price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/barrel (-2.4%) compared to last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [9]. - **Refining Spreads**: The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,579.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 96.5 yuan/ton (+3.9%); the spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,197.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62.6 yuan/ton (+5.5%) [9]. - **Polyester Sector** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY this week were 6,789.3 yuan/ton, 7,078.6 yuan/ton, and 8,021.4 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 82.1 yuan/ton, 67.9 yuan/ton, and 28.6 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits of POY, FDY, and DTY were 107.8 yuan/ton, 34.3 yuan/ton, and 62.8 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 4.5 yuan/ton, +5.0 yuan/ton, and +31.0 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 19.3 days, 27.6 days, and 31.1 days respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.9 days, 1.2 days, and 1.4 days. The operating rate of filament was 91.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 pct [10]. - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel decreased [3]. - **US Refined Oil**: This week, the prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel decreased [3]. - **Chemical Sector** - **PX**: The average price of PX this week was 835.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.0 dollars/ton. The spread between PX and crude oil was 350.3 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.7 dollars/ton. The operating rate of PX was 85.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 pct [3]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends** - **Market Performance of Six Private Big Refining Companies**: The report presents the market performance trends of six private big refining companies from 2020 to 2025, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. [16][17] - **Refining Spreads and Oil Prices**: It shows the historical trends of domestic and foreign big refining project spreads and Brent oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [20][22] - **Polyester Sector** - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: It presents the price trends of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., as well as the price and profit trends of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [24][26][38] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: It shows the operating rate trends of PX, PTA, MEG, filament, and polyester staple fiber from 2020 to 2025, as well as the inventory trends of PTA, filament, and polyester staple fiber [33][56][76] - **Sales and Production Rates**: It presents the sales and production rate trends of filament and polyester staple fiber in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2020 to 2025 [49][72] - **Refining Sector** - **Domestic Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [85][94] - **US Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [99][107] - **European Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of European gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [112][121] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It shows the price trends of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [126][134] - **Chemical Sector** - **Chemical Product Prices**: It shows the price trends of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., and their spreads with crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [140][148]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.82% on September 12, with Bohui Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Maoyang Xinchang (Code: 000819) with a closing price of 17.50, up 3.18% [1] - Compton (Code: 603798) with a closing price of 16.36, up 2.63% [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical (Code: 600688) with a closing price of 2.80, up 1.08% [1] - Major decliners included: - Bohui Co. (Code: 300839) with a closing price of 14.78, down 2.76% [2] - Hengli Petrochemical (Code: 600346) with a closing price of 17.06, down 1.33% [2] - Hengyi Petrochemical (Code: 000703) with a closing price of 6.66, down 1.19% [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 421 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 198 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicated that: - Main funds showed a net outflow from several stocks, including Maoyang Xinchang and Hengyi Petrochemical [3] - Retail investors contributed positively to stocks like Compton and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of international oil price fluctuations and the recent price changes in TDI and acetic acid, suggesting a focus on supply-side influences from "anti-involution" trends, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][10] - It recommends a mid-to-long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, the growth of the oil and gas extraction sector, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [10] Industry Dynamics - As of September 7, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 25.10, at the 74.71% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.19, at the 51.87% historical percentile. For the SW oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 11.93, at the 28.18% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.18, at the 24.04% historical percentile [10] - The report notes significant impacts from tariff policies and oil price volatility on the industry this year, with a focus on several key areas for September [2][10] Key Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the following areas: 1. Oil and gas extraction with sustained high activity levels and robust dividend policies 2. New materials, particularly in electronic materials and renewable energy sectors, with significant growth potential [10] - Specific companies recommended include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the new materials and energy sectors [10] Price Changes and Market Analysis - In the week of September 1-7, 29 chemical products saw price increases, 39 experienced declines, and 32 remained stable. Notable price increases were observed in NYMEX natural gas, bisphenol A, and acetic acid, while TDI and other products saw significant price drops [9][34] - The report indicates that the average price of acetic acid increased by 2.12% week-on-week, while TDI prices fell by 6.45% [9][34]

Core Viewpoint - On September 11, brokerages provided target prices for listed companies, with significant increases noted for Huaron Co., Yifeng Pharmacy, and Xueda Education, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [1] Group 1: Target Price Increases - Huaron Co. saw a target price increase of 63.97%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the specialized equipment sector [1] - Yifeng Pharmacy's target price rose by 58.37%, reflecting positive outlooks in the pharmaceutical retail industry [1] - Xueda Education experienced a target price increase of 56.92%, showcasing optimism in the education sector [1] Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 96 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on September 11, highlighting active market engagement [1] - Wanda Film, Tongkun Co., and Juhe Materials each received two brokerage recommendations, suggesting a focus on these companies within their respective industries [1] Group 3: Rating Downgrades - Caitong Securities downgraded Changchun Gaoxin's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," indicating a shift in sentiment towards this company [1]

Group 1 - The company has approved the issuance of super short-term financing bonds with a total registered amount of up to 6 billion RMB [1] - The company successfully issued the 2025 eighth phase of technology innovation bonds, raising a total of 500 million RMB [2] - The funds from the bond issuance were fully received on September 11, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The registration for the super short-term financing bonds is valid for two years from the date of the acceptance notice [1] - The relevant documents for the bond issuance have been published on the China Money website and the Shanghai Clearing House website [2]

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-055 桐昆集团股份有限公司关于 2025年度第八期科技创新债券发行结果的公告 | 申购情况 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合规申购家数 | 8 家 | 合规申购金额 | 9.2 | 亿元 | | 最高申购价位 | 1.89% | 最低申购价位 | 1.79% | | | 有效申购家数 | 6 家 | 有效申购金额 | 5.7 | 亿元 | | 主承销商余额 | / | 主承余额包销规 模占当期发行规 | / | | | 包销金额 | | | | | | | | 模比例 | | | | 联席主承销商 | | 联席主承余额包 | | | | 余额包销金额 | / | 销规模占当期发 | / | | | | | 行规模比例 | | | | 簿记管理人 | | 浙商银行股份有限公司 | | | | 主承销商 | | 浙商银行股份有限公司 | | | | 联席主承销商 | | 宁波银行股份有限公司 | | | 本 期 发 行 科 创 债 的 相 关 文 件 已 在 中 国 货 币 网 (www.c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.158 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, an increase of 2.93% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, down 8.73% year-on-year but up 27.38% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 486 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.04% year-on-year but a decrease of 20.54% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The long filament production capacity is fully utilized, with an operating rate of 96.3% in Q2 2025, and sales volume increased by 5% year-on-year and 38.2% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The report highlights that the supply-demand dynamics in the long filament industry are continuously improving, with expectations for profit margins to rise in the long term [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 101.307 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.6%, while for 2025, it is expected to decrease to 97.086 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from 1.202 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.167 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 80.3% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2024 to 0.90 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [3] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leader in the long filament industry, with a total production capacity of 13.5 million tons for polyester filament and 10.2 million tons for PTA [7] - The target price for the stock is set at 18.9 yuan, with the current price at 14.62 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3] - The report suggests that the stock price does not fully reflect the profitability potential of the petrochemical segment, which is significantly undervalued [7]

Group 1 - The board of Tongkun Co., Ltd. approved the issuance of ultra-short-term financing bonds, which received a registration quota of 6 billion yuan from the trading association on August 30, 2024 [1] - On September 10, 2025, the company issued the eighth phase of technology innovation bonds in the national interbank market, with a total issuance amount of 500 million yuan, and the funds were fully received on September 11 [1] - The bond, referred to as "25 Tongkun SCP008 (Tech Innovation Bond)," has a term of 260 days and an issuance interest rate of 1.84% [1] Group 2 - There were 8 compliant subscription applications for the bond, amounting to 920 million yuan, while 6 effective subscription applications totaled 570 million yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company has maintained stable performance in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 44.158 billion and a net profit of 1.097 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.93% in net profit despite an 8.41% decline in revenue [1][2]. - The company's strategy includes expanding into the coal sector and promoting an integrated industrial chain, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and profitability [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the filament industry, potentially leading to a recovery in industry conditions [4][9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 98.046 billion, with a net profit of 2.112 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.7% [1][11]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 6.76%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities improved by 83.87% year-on-year, indicating better cash management [3]. Industry Insights - The filament industry is expected to benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies, which aim to eliminate low-price competition and promote product quality [4][9]. - The overall effective capacity in the polyester filament industry was 53.38 million tons as of the first half of 2025, with limited new capacity additions, suggesting a stable supply environment [9]. - The demand for polyester filament is projected to increase due to seasonal factors and improved export performance, which may support price recovery [9].

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, down 8.41% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.38% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 486 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.54% [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The main revenue contributors were polyester filament and purified terephthalic acid (PTA), with revenues of 37.932 billion yuan and 3.521 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 86% and 8% of total revenue [1] - Production and sales volumes for key products were as follows: POY (4.8696 million tons produced, 4.3796 million tons sold), FDY (1.0877 million tons produced, 1.0295 million tons sold), DTY (585.6 thousand tons produced, 543.5 thousand tons sold), and PTA (767.5 thousand tons produced, 825.1 thousand tons sold) [1] - Price changes for key products were: POY at 6,160.30 yuan/ton (-9.99% YoY), FDY at 6,464.69 yuan/ton (-15.90% YoY), DTY at 7,688.11 yuan/ton (-9.07% YoY), and PTA at 4,267.54 yuan/ton (-19.11% YoY) [1] Group 3: Company Background and Industry Position - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is the largest polyester filament producer globally, with a comprehensive product range including various types of polyester filament [2] - The company has a strong market position, ranking 34th among China's top 500 private enterprises and 25th among China's top 500 private manufacturing enterprises in 2025 [2] Group 4: Production Capacity and Supply Chain - As of mid-2025, the company has a total of 13 million tons of polymerization capacity and 13.5 million tons of filament capacity, leading the industry in filament capacity and output [3] - The company has established multiple production bases across China, ensuring a robust supply chain, with PTA production capacity of 10.2 million tons, achieving self-sufficiency in raw materials [3] Group 5: Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.53% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 18.00 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [3]