有业内人士提出，今年一季度多数上市银行盈利表现低于预期， 不少银行的净息差还在走 低、叠加不良率抬头，二者甚至出现了罕见的"倒挂"。而部分银行资产质量的走低，可能削弱 其后续分红能力，使得未来股价上涨的可持续性面临考验。 记者丨 余纪昕 编辑丨方海平 时间来到8月，银行股行情依然"风光无两"。 延续上半年的强劲走势，8月初银行板块继续狂飙。8月5日，A股银行板块42只个股全线飘 红，其中15只涨幅超过2%。 农业银行8月6日收盘价报6.62元，再创历史新高，A股市值升至 2.11万亿元 。数只银行股股价今年以来屡创新高，Wind数据显示，截至8月7日发稿时，中证 银行指数年内累计上涨13.90%，A股银行板块内42只个股年内均实现了不同程度的上涨。 面对持续翻红的银行股股价，市场开始顾虑： 错过前面这波的行情，现在银行股的点位"还能 冲吗"？在股价长红的背后，银行业绩风险几何？ 开源证券银行首席分析师刘呈祥告诉21世纪经济报道，当前银行行情仍为股息红利逻辑驱 动，与基本面相关性较弱。他指出，从经营层面看，2025年一季度上市银行息差收窄压力 仍存。在对公业务风险逐步缓释的同时，当前各银行新生不良主要集中在零售 ...

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China has reached the top position in A-share market capitalization, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, driven by strong stock performance and favorable market conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 6, Agricultural Bank's stock price closed at 6.62 yuan, marking a 1.22% increase and achieving the highest level since its A-share listing [2]. - As of August 7, the bank's market capitalization was reported at 2.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.36% increase from the previous day [3]. - Since the beginning of 2025, Agricultural Bank's stock price has increased by 29.54%, while Industrial Bank's stock price has risen by 16.85% [4]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Market Position - The increase in Agricultural Bank's market capitalization is attributed to a significant rise in bank stocks, which are favored by investors seeking high dividend yields and stable returns [3]. - Agricultural Bank's A-share circulating stock is 3.192 billion shares, compared to 2.696 billion shares for Industrial Bank, contributing to its higher market value [4]. - The bank's strong profitability and dividend stability have enhanced its appeal, with experts noting its high earnings certainty among the top four banks [9]. Group 3: Capital Structure and TLAC Bonds - Agricultural Bank has issued a total of 800 billion yuan in TLAC bonds since 2025, with the latest issuance of 500 billion yuan completed on August 4 [4]. - The issuance of TLAC bonds helps optimize the bank's capital structure, even though these bonds are not considered regulatory capital [5]. - The bank's ability to maintain a high level of excess provisions contributes to its capital adequacy and risk management [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The banking sector has become a star performer in the A-share market, with a notable increase in public fund holdings in bank stocks, which rose to 4.88% of the total A-share market capitalization by the end of Q2 2025 [7]. - The shift in market dynamics has led to increased allocations to bank stocks by institutional investors, driven by the need for stable returns amid market volatility [8].

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China has reached the top position in A-share market capitalization, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, driven by strong stock performance and investor interest in bank stocks [1][2][3] Company Performance - As of August 7, Agricultural Bank's stock price rose by 1.36%, with a total market capitalization of 2.35 trillion yuan [2] - The stock price has increased by 29.54% since 2025, while the stock price of Industrial and Commercial Bank has risen by 16.85% during the same period [4] - Over the longer term, Agricultural Bank's stock has surged by 145% since 2023 [5] Market Dynamics - The rise in Agricultural Bank's market capitalization is attributed to a significant increase in bank stocks, which are favored by investors seeking high dividend yields and stable returns [2][6] - The banking sector has become a star performer in the A-share market, with a notable shift in market dynamics favoring bank stocks [6][7] Capital Structure and Financial Health - Agricultural Bank has issued a total of 800 billion yuan in TLAC bonds since 2025, which helps optimize its capital structure [3] - The bank's high profitability certainty among the four major banks enhances its dividend appeal, supported by a strong capital adequacy ratio and low non-performing loan ratio [8][9] - Agricultural Bank's excess provisions for losses are higher than the regulatory limits, providing a buffer for future profitability [10]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has achieved a historic milestone by becoming the A-share market's largest circulating market value, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) for the first time in its history [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - ABC's stock price increased by 1.22% on August 6, 2023, closing at 6.62 CNY per share, with a circulating market value of 2.11 trillion CNY [1] - On August 7, 2023, the stock price rose by 1.36%, reaching 6.71 CNY per share, and the total market value reached 2.35 trillion CNY [1] - The stock has shown significant growth since 2023, with price increases of 33.18%, 54.74%, and 29.54% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [2][3] Group 2: Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, 93 fund companies hold a total of 353 public funds in ABC, with a total market value of 6.097 billion CNY [2][3] - The top five funds holding over 100 million CNY in ABC include both index and actively managed funds, with the highest being Huabao CSI Bank ETF at 650 million CNY [3] - The fund "Jinxin Intelligent China 2025" has held ABC for 30 consecutive quarters, focusing on bank stocks, and has delivered strong returns [5][6] Group 3: Fund Performance - "Jinxin Intelligent China 2025" reported returns of 10.40%, 34.05%, and 17.48% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, ranking in the top 3%, 1%, and 25% of its category [5] - "Yinhua Changrong A" has also held ABC for over 10 quarters, with returns of 2.36% and 18.56% in 2023 and 2024, ranking in the top 6% and 8% of its category [5][6] Group 4: Fund Company Holdings - Among the 93 fund companies, 12 have holdings in ABC exceeding 100 million CNY, with Huatai-PineBridge being the largest holder at 974 million CNY [6] - Other significant holders include Huabao Fund and Fortune Fund, with holdings of 686 million CNY and 425 million CNY respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green and reaching a new high for the year, driven by sectors such as semiconductors, precious metals, and banking [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market's trading volume increased to 1.83 trillion yuan, with significant gains in the semiconductor, precious metals, and banking sectors, while traditional Chinese medicine and photovoltaic sectors saw corrections [4]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) achieved a historic market capitalization of 2.11 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 2.09 trillion yuan, marking ABC's first position as the largest market cap in A-shares [5][6]. Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's total market capitalization in A-shares has surpassed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the first half of the year, with ABC's rise reflecting a market reassessment of bank stocks characterized by low valuations and high dividends [6][10]. - ABC's net profit growth in Q1 2025 was 2.2% year-on-year and 6.23% quarter-on-quarter, contrasting with ICBC's decline of 3.99% year-on-year and 13.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating ABC's stronger earnings resilience [7]. - Analysts predict a positive outlook for the banking sector, with several banks reporting net profit growth in their mid-year forecasts, suggesting an overall improvement in industry performance [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of bank stocks are attracting stable income-seeking funds, such as insurance and pension funds, which are expected to drive further growth in ABC's market value [10][16]. - Recent reforms in public fund management are likely to lead to increased allocations towards the banking sector, which has been significantly underweighted in many portfolios [11]. - Insurance capital has been increasing its holdings in bank stocks, with notable cases of shareholding increases in various banks, indicating a trend of growing institutional interest [15]. Group 4: Fund Holdings and Performance - As of Q2 2025, 353 public funds from 93 fund companies held shares in ABC, with a total market value of approximately 6.097 billion yuan [17]. - The top fund holding ABC is Huatai-PB Value Selection, with a holding value of 505 million yuan, emphasizing the preference for dividend-paying assets in the current market [18]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Strategy - The current market environment favors dividend-style investments, with the banking sector's dividend yield at approximately 5.13%, significantly higher than long-term bond yields [20]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended for the banking sector, combining it with other sectors to mitigate risks, while regular investment strategies can help manage market volatility [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has become the largest company by market capitalization in A-shares, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) for the first time, reflecting significant changes in the banking sector's market dynamics [2][4][12]. Market Performance - As of August 6, ABC's A-share market capitalization reached 2.11 trillion yuan, while ICBC's was 2.09 trillion yuan, marking a historic shift in rankings [2][4]. - The top three A-share market capitalizations are now ABC, ICBC, and Kweichow Moutai, compared to the beginning of the year when Kweichow Moutai led [2][4]. - ABC's stock price has increased by approximately 29.54% year-to-date, outperforming other major banks [7][9]. A-H Share Distribution - The distribution of A-shares and H-shares among major banks varies significantly, affecting market capitalization comparisons. ABC has the highest proportion of A-shares at about 91%, while China Construction Bank has the lowest at around 8% [12][13]. - The total market capitalization of state-owned banks in A-shares has increased by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with ABC contributing 408.6 billion yuan to this growth [10]. Historical Context - Historically, the title of A-share market capitalization champion has alternated primarily between ICBC and Kweichow Moutai since 2020, with ABC claiming the title on August 6, 2023 [6]. - The total market capitalization of the banking sector in A-shares has surpassed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the first half of the year [5]. Investment Trends - The banking sector has seen a rise in interest from long-term funds due to its low valuation and high dividend characteristics, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [8]. - Recent reforms in public fund assessment and insurance capital yield assessments have been viewed as supportive factors for the continued rise of bank stocks [8]. Performance Comparison - In terms of performance over the past year, ABC has led with a 49% increase, followed by other major banks with lower growth rates [9]. - The total market capitalization of state-owned banks has increased by approximately 1.6 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with ABC and China Construction Bank showing the largest increases [18]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest monitoring three key indicators for the sustainability of the banking sector's performance: the market's performance by 2027, the banks reaching a price-to-book ratio of 1, and the allocation of public funds to banks [18].

2025.08. 07 本文字数：3237，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第 一财经 亓宁 8月6日，A股三大指数录得三连涨，全市场超3300股上涨。在市场一片大好中，有两个信号被格外关注：一是两融余额时隔10年再度突破2万亿元；二 是农业银行（601288.SH）首次登顶A股市值之最，工商银行（601398.SH）"让位"。 截至当日收盘，农业银行A股总市值为2.11万亿元，超过工商银行的2.09万亿元，这在历史上是首次。目前，A股市值前三排位是：农业银行、工商银 行、贵州茅台（600519.SH）；今年年初这一排位是：贵州茅台、工商银行、农业银行。但从总市值来看，工商银行仍以2.57万亿元居首，农业银 行、建设银行分别以2.26万亿元、1.94万亿元位居第二位、第三位。 有市场人士提示，农业银行年内涨势稳定且持续，在国有大行中表现亮眼。不过，考虑到各家大行上市总股本在A股和H股的分布比例差异较大，单纯 比较A股市值的参考意义有限。Wind数据显示，目前国有大行中A股占总股本比例最高的为农业银行（约91%），最低的为建设银行（约为8%），后 者因为股本大头在港交所，A股市值低于部分股份行甚至城商行。 截至7 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 08 月 07 日 银行市值的几个口径及险资举牌比例释疑 银行市值是经营基本面和估值（经营预期）的综合体现，不仅资本市场关注， 银行管理层甚至相关政策部门也重视，所以需要严谨的计算口径。不少上市银 行同时在 AH 股上市，同时险资增持银行事件增加，市场对银行市值计算和举 牌口径存在误解，本篇报告尝试进行梳理释疑。 银行市值的几个口径。严格来说，对于 AH 股上市银行，有 5 个市值口径。（1） A 股总市值（A 股股价*总股本数）；（2）H 股总市值（H 股股价*总股本数）； （3）A 股股本市值（A 股股价*A 股股本数）；（4）H 股股本市值（H 股股价 *H 股股本数）；（5）股权公平市场价值（A 股股本市值+H 股股本市值）。因 为 AH 股估值差异较大，同时各家银行 AH 股本比例也不同，投资分析视角下， 会更多关注特定市场的总市值，也就是口径 1 和 2，部分时候会关注股权公平市 场价值（口径 5）。至于口径 3 和 4，由于不同银行特定市场股本比例不同，很 少进行关注对比。最新 AH 上市银行股本比例和 5 个口径市值见表 1。 险资举牌银行比例释疑 ...

单纯比较A股市值的参考意义有限 8月6日，A股三大指数录得三连涨，全市场超3300股上涨。在市场一片大好中，有两个信号被格外关注：一是融资余额时隔10年再度突破2万亿元；二是农 业银行（601288.SH）首次登顶A股市值之最，工商银行（601398.SH）"让位"。 回顾近两年银行股的节节攀升，不少受访人士表示，银行股的低估值、高股息特点使其成为震荡市中避险资金的心头好。尤其在低利率和"资产荒"背景下， 国有大行业绩与分红的稳定性、持续性越来越受到长期资金的青睐。 最近几个月，公募基金考核制度改革、险资收益考核更趋长期化，加上近期国债等债券利息面临恢复征税，都被视为银行股持续上涨的利好支撑。截至6日 收盘，年内中证银行指数涨了13.42%，最近3年则涨了近45%。 在这个过程中，农业银行可谓国有大行中最亮眼的个股。今年以来，农业银行A股股价涨幅已逼近30%，达到29.54%，位列42家A股上市银行第三；同期， 工商银行、建设银行、邮储银行、中国银行、交通银行分别涨了16.85%、14.11%、8.98%、7.32%、4.55%。 截至当日收盘，农业银行A股总市值为2.11万亿元，超过工商银行的2.09万亿元 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 农业银行股价再创历史新高，流通市值首次登顶A股！ 8月6日，农业银行收盘上涨1.22%，报收6.62元/股的历史高价，流通市值达2.11万亿元，首次超越工商银行 2.09万亿元的流通市值，成为当前A股"流通市值之王"，此外，贵州茅台流通市值达1.79万亿元，位列第三。 8月6日，农业银行流通市值首次夺得A股冠军宝座 。 证券时报· 券商中国记者 据Wind统计，今年以来截至8月 6日，农业银行A股累计涨幅达29.8%，仅次于浦发银行（39.57%）、青岛银行（37.37%），居于42家上市银行 涨幅榜第三位，并排在国有六大行A股涨幅首位。 从总市值来看，工商银行仍以2.57万亿元（A股、H股合计）稳居国内上市公司榜首，而农业银行A股总市值为 2.26万亿元，位居第二。此外，总市值排名前十的上市公司中，包括建设银行、贵州茅台、中国移动、中国银 行、中国石油、宁德时代、招商银行和中国人寿。共包括6只金融股。 今年以来，银行板块持续受益于高股息板块的投资热度，保险资金等中长期资金入市加快，频频举牌上市银 行。与此同时， ...