[Table_Page] 深度分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 利润增速回正，息差连续两季度企稳 ——银行业 2025 年四季度监管数据总结 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-26 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 银行 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | -- ...

感谢贵司的理解和支持，上海农商银行将继续竭诚为您提供安全、优质的金融服务！ 在上述调整限额工作过程中，上海农商银行不会要求客户提供数字证书、UKEY密码、短信验证码、交 易密码和其他个人信息，也不会以任何理由要求客户进行转账验证，请贵司保护好相关信息，谨防 以"限额调整"为由的诈骗行为。 2026年2月26日，上海农商银行发布公告称，为了切实保障对公客户的账户资金安全，上海农商银行在 综合评估账户风险的基础上，将于2026年3月16日起对非活跃账户的企业电子渠道交易限额进行动态调 整。如贵司需提升企业电子渠道交易限额，请联系开户行申请重新评估，在核实评估过程中，可能需要 您配合提供辅助证明材料。 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 033 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 1 银行业（郭怡萍） 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年四季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况。 商业银行盈利增速回正，净利润增速逐季提升。2025 年，商业银行净利润同比增长 2.3%， 年内净利润增速持续提升。分机构类型看，城商行和农商行净利润增速在低基数基础上实 现较快的利润增长，净利润增速分别达 12.9%和 4.6%。大型银行净利润增速持平为 2.3%， 股份制银行净利润增速则下降至-2.8%。商业银行资本利润率 7.78%，资产利润率 0.60%，均 较前值有所下降。其中，大型银行资产利润率保持在 0.67%，体现一定盈利能力韧性。 商业银行息差延续边际趋稳态势，支持提升核心盈利能力。四季度银行净利息收益率 1.42%，持平于三季度，二季度以来净息差整体保持稳定，有助于提升核心盈利能力。全年 来看，商业银行息差同比下降 11 BP，基本符合预期，其中城商行息差体现出较强的韧性， 同比仅下行 1 BP。商业银行非利息收入占比为 22.53%，较三季度继续下降，主要是债市波 动所致。 时 间：2026 ...

股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

银行股马年首个交易日跌多涨少 2月24日，A股市场实现开门红，截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%报4117.41点，深证成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨 0.99%。当天，沪深两市合计成交约2.2万亿元，较上一个交易日放量近2200亿元。 调研热情不及往年。 马年第一个交易日A股迎来开门红，银行股在市场火热情绪中继续被"冷落"，成为当天为数不多的飘绿 板块之一。 从消息面来看，当天最新LPR（贷款市场报价利率）出炉，1年期及5年期两个期限品种均连续9个月"按 兵不动"。央行节前披露的金融数据显示，尽管社融实现"开门红"，但信贷投放在1月罕见出现同比少 增。在此背景下，市场一方面更多关注信贷质量，另一方面也更加关注春节后开工节奏。 从机构对银行的调研情况来看，相较于往年同期，今年以来调研热情也有所回落，分化依然明显。第一 财经梳理发现，机构调研过程中的关注点主要集中在信贷投放尤其对公信贷景气度、息差压力下的负债 量价趋势和中收拓展能力，以及盈利压力下的资本补充计划等。 从板块表现来看，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4000只个股上涨、百余只个股涨停。截至收盘，31个申 万一级行业中，仅传媒、计算机、商贸零售等7个板块飘绿。其中 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in Q4 2025, showing an improvement compared to the previous quarters [4][10]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.42%, with expectations of a narrowing decline in 2026 due to the re-pricing of high-cost long-term deposits and a slowdown in the reduction of new loan rates [4][10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.50%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 15.5%, reflecting a marginal increase in capital levels [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Regulatory Indicators for Q4 2025 - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a growth rate of 10.8% [7]. - The average capital return rate was 7.78%, and the average asset return rate was 0.60% [10]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and ensuring adequate liquidity [10]. - The banking sector's focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for performance growth, particularly recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [4][10]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - The report includes weekly tracking of stock performance, with notable fluctuations in bank stock prices, indicating market volatility [18].

Group 1 - The core focus of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank is to support the "Three Rural Issues" and the "Support for Agriculture and Small Enterprises" strategy, aiming to transform macro blueprints into tangible rural revitalization outcomes [1] - The bank prioritizes food security as a key financial service, enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality through financial empowerment, technology integration, and facility upgrades [1] - The bank has initiated a "Four-party Cooperation Mechanism" involving government, banks, insurance, and guarantees, and has conducted a special action to visit over 2,000 farmer cooperatives in Shanghai, directing credit resources to critical areas like grain production and livestock farming [1] Group 2 - To achieve sustainable income growth for farmers, the bank supports the development of county-level industries and promotes deep integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [2] - The bank innovates financial support methods for rural tourism projects, addressing financing bottlenecks and enhancing the activation of rural land and resources [2] - The bank supports the development of geographical indication agricultural products, such as "Songjiang Rice" and "Liantang Reed," by expanding online channels and collaborating with local supply cooperatives [2] Group 3 - The bank is enhancing rural governance and credit systems, establishing a "Grid-based Financial Service" mechanism that converts soft information into assessable hard credit, with a target of evaluating 369 credit villages and 10 credit towns by the end of 2025 [3] - By the end of 2025, the bank aims to have an agricultural loan scale exceeding 66 billion yuan, with inclusive agricultural loans surpassing 15 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position in the regional market [3] - The bank is committed to continuing its mission of promoting inclusive finance for a better life, guided by central government policies, and will focus on structural reforms in financial supply to support rural revitalization [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 has been released, emphasizing the goal of modernizing agriculture and rural areas, with Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank committed to translating this vision into practical rural revitalization efforts [1] Group 1: Agricultural Production and Financial Support - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank prioritizes food security by enhancing agricultural production capabilities and quality, focusing on key areas such as grain production and livestock farming [2] - The bank has initiated a "government-bank-insurance guarantee" cooperation mechanism and conducted outreach to over 2,000 farmer cooperatives, directing credit resources to essential sectors [2] - A dedicated financial service plan was created for the construction of 100,000 acres of unmanned farms, facilitating the first loan for "unmanned farm" construction to support the transition from mechanization to intelligence in agriculture [2] Group 2: Agricultural Infrastructure and Technology Innovation - The bank has launched the first agricultural guarantee loan for fixed assets in facility agriculture, providing crucial funding for the upgrade of smart glass greenhouses [3] - A specialized financial service plan named "Kexin Agriculture" has been developed to support agricultural technology innovation, focusing on high-investment, long-cycle, and light-asset characteristics of agricultural tech enterprises [3] - The bank has successfully implemented the first plant variety pledge loan in the city, creating new pathways for supporting agricultural intellectual property and seed technology advancements [4] Group 3: Rural Revitalization and Economic Development - The bank aims to enhance farmers' income by fostering county-level industries and promoting the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [5] - A three-year action plan has been established to support rural revitalization, with strategic cooperation agreements signed with 108 towns [5] - Innovative financial support methods have been introduced for rural tourism projects, addressing financing bottlenecks and facilitating the development of new rural industries [5] Group 4: Ecological Protection and Green Development - The bank supports the construction of a 40 MW "fishing-light complementary" project, which is expected to generate over 50 million kWh annually and significantly reduce carbon emissions [6] - A pioneering "climate loan" has been introduced to help agricultural entities manage weather-related risks, enhancing the resilience of rural ecological agriculture [6] - The bank promotes local geographical indication products, facilitating their online sales and enhancing the income of local specialty industries [6] Group 5: Financial Inclusion and Credit System Development - The bank has established a "grid-based financial service" mechanism to convert soft information into hard credit assessments, evaluating 369 credit villages and 10 credit towns by the end of 2025 [7] - The "Silver-Farmer Direct Connection" initiative aims to enhance financial services in rural areas, improving the management of collective funds and promoting healthy rural economic development [8] - By the end of 2025, the bank's agricultural loan scale is expected to exceed 66 billion yuan, with inclusive agricultural loans surpassing 15 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position in the regional market [8] Group 6: Commitment to Agricultural Modernization - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank is dedicated to the mission of "inclusive finance to enhance the quality of life for the public," continuously innovating products and services to allocate more financial resources to key areas of rural revitalization [9]