Market Overview - On January 8, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing volatility. The metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper, collectively retreated, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) declining by 1.89%, marking its first pullback after five consecutive gains. The fund saw a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan, totaling more than 4.7 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the past five days [1][6]. Gold Reserves and Central Bank Actions - As of December 31, 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, with a total annual increase of 860,000 ounces. The central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [2]. - Globally, central banks have been accumulating gold, with the U.S. overseas gold reserves exceeding 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.93 trillion, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [3]. Commodity Trading Trends - According to Zhejiang Merchants Securities, the current macroeconomic environment in developed economies is at a critical risk point, with geopolitical tensions leading to two main trading themes: the replacement of reserve assets and the national security focus on basic and rare metals. Central banks are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, which will support long-term gold price trends [4]. - The demand for strategic metals is expected to rise due to increased military spending and the need for key materials, with policies in the U.S. and European allies aimed at boosting strategic metal reserves by 2025 [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with potential strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and political instability affecting the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador. Despite traditional consumption slowing in China, demand from AI and energy storage sectors is anticipated to drive copper consumption growth [5]. - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) includes a diverse range of metals, with a high concentration of copper (34%) and gold (12%), making it a strategic investment option in the context of the ongoing commodity supercycle [7][9]. Performance Metrics - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) has shown a cumulative return that leads its peers, with a maximum drawdown lower than that of similar funds. The index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 26.27, a 52% decrease compared to five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [11].

Core Insights - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing a significant trade deficit, with imports far exceeding exports, leading to an increasing trend in trade deficit from 2019 to 2024 [1][2]. Trade Deficit - In 2024, the total import and export value of copper smelting-related products in China reached 811.86 billion yuan, with a trade deficit expanding by 114.51 billion yuan [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the trade deficit was recorded at 195.81 billion yuan, indicating a continued trend of high import reliance [2]. Import Volume and Value - The import volume of copper smelting-related products in China reached 33.02 million tons in 2024, marking a 2.34% increase from 2023, with an import value of 807.29 billion yuan, which is a 14.48% increase compared to 2020 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the import volume was 20.00 million tons, with an import value of 507.56 billion yuan [3]. Import Price Trends - The average import price of copper smelting-related products has shown an upward trend from 2019 to July 2025, with significant increases noted during the 2020-2021 period due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. Export Volume and Value - The export volume of copper smelting-related products in China was 456,400 tons in 2024, with an export value of 31.60 billion yuan, reaching a peak during the observed period [7]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the export volume was 421,600 tons, with an export value of 28.92 billion yuan [7]. Export Price Trends - The average export price of copper smelting-related products has generally increased from 2019 to July 2025, although some products exhibited significant price volatility due to smaller export volumes [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining experienced a stock price decline of 2.02% on January 8, 2025, with a trading price of 35.98 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 956.99 billion CNY [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of Zijin Mining has increased by 4.38% year-to-date, with a 7.66% rise over the last five trading days, an 18.36% increase over the last 20 days, and a 21.97% increase over the last 60 days [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zijin Mining reached 529,800, an increase of 57.83% compared to the previous period [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.864 billion CNY, which is a 55.45% increase year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 59.277 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 27.772 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the largest shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 1.354 billion shares (a decrease of 235 million shares), and China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 691 million shares (unchanged) [3] - Other significant shareholders include Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, both of which have seen a decrease in their holdings [3]

恒生指数低开0.59%，恒生科技指数跌0.44%。腾讯音乐、百度集团、阿里巴巴、紫金矿业跌幅靠前。 中国神华、中国电信、招商银行等走强。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The metal market is experiencing a structural divergence, with strong performance in new energy metals driven by robust demand and policy expectations, while precious metals are under slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors [1] Group 2: New Energy Metals - The new energy metals sector is the market's main focus, with significant price increases in nickel and tin contracts, supported by the ongoing high demand from the global electric vehicle industry and long-term growth potential from carbon neutrality policies [1] - Despite the overall bullish trend, nickel prices experienced a notable pullback due to technical sell-offs triggered by the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight rebalancing and profit-taking pressures after previous gains [1] Group 3: Precious Metals - In contrast to new energy metals, precious metals like gold and silver showed relatively flat performance, with slight declines attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar and fluctuations in domestic manufacturing data impacting industrial metal demand expectations [2] - Regulatory measures have been implemented for silver futures, including adjustments to trading limits and increased margin requirements, indicating close monitoring of potential market overheating risks by authorities [2] Group 4: Leading Companies' Performance - Major companies in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, have forecasted significant net profit growth for 2025, validating the strong profitability of upstream companies amid high metal prices [3] - These leading firms have also announced ambitious capacity expansion plans for the upcoming year, reflecting confidence in the industry's medium to long-term prospects and creating clear incremental demand expectations within the supply chain [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - The structural characteristics of the metal market are expected to persist, with long-term demand growth from energy transition supporting metals like copper, nickel, tin, and magnesium [3] - Short-term market fluctuations will be influenced by macroeconomic volatility, including monetary policy paths of major economies, geopolitical risks, and the release of key economic data [3] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding the "chaotic" macro environment while focusing on long-term growth opportunities in new energy metals and being aware of regulatory changes affecting specific commodities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in gold prices and significant purchases by central banks have positioned gold as the largest reserve asset globally, surpassing U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of January 8, 2026, the China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with the highest gain from WanGuo Gold Group-New (03939) at 9.76% [1] - The World Gold Council reported that the total overseas official gold reserves of the U.S. exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion based on November 30 gold prices [1] - By year-end, the value of U.S. overseas official gold reserves is projected to reach $3.93 trillion, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities, which stood at nearly $3.88 trillion as of October [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment and Trends - Guotai Junan Futures analysis indicates that rising risk aversion is a key driver of gold price movements, alongside a steady increase in domestic foreign exchange reserves, reflecting a growing strategic allocation to gold by official entities [2] - The China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 63.58% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's gold reserves have increased for the 14th consecutive month, reaching 7,415 million ounces (approximately 2,306.323 tons) as of the end of December, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 0.73%, with significant increases in individual stocks such as WanGuo Gold Group (03939) up 4.20% and ZhaoJin Mining (01818) up 2.97% [1] - An analysis by Anliang Futures indicates a paradigm shift in the gold market driven by global macroeconomic changes, highlighting the importance of sovereign credit risk premium, diversification of reserve assets, and improvements in microstructure as key support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 63.58% of the total index weight, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) being the largest contributors [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - On the night of January 7th, the JM05 contract of coking coal futures jumped up by 6.95% to 1,215 yuan/ton, mainly due to the rising market risk - preference, the rotation of futures and stocks, and the fundamentals and futures market conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Reasons for the sharp rise in coking coal futures - The Shanghai Composite Index (000001) breaking through a ten - year high indicates that the overall market risk preference is rising [1] - After the bulls in the futures market have snapped up various metals, they noticed that coking coal futures hadn't risen [1] - The sharp rise of stocks in the non - ferrous sector and the rise of the CSI Coal Index (399998) by 3.73% show the rotation of stock sectors and the linkage between futures and stocks [1] Fundamentals and futures market conditions - The inventory of Qinhuangdao thermal coal has decreased from 7.37 million tons on December 22nd, 25 to 5.25 million tons on January 7th, and the CCTD Bohai Rim 5500 - calorie thermal coal index has found support at 680 yuan/ton [2] - The first - quarter long - term contract price of imported Mongolian coal is about 66 - 69 US dollars, equivalent to 800 - 830 yuan/ton in the spot market and 920 - 950 yuan/ton in the futures market [2] - On January 3rd, the JM futures increased positions by 53,000 contracts, and the small decline of 34.5 yuan at the close indicates that the resistance to long - position trading is the smallest, and the potential upward price movement (300 yuan) is greater than the downward movement (100 yuan) [2] Policy analysis - Policies such as the over - production inspection in July 25 and the capacity verification of coal - supply guarantee mines in Shaanxi in 26 do not conflict with the increase in coal production [2]

个股方面，87只个股获融资净买入额超1亿元。北方稀土获融资净买入额居首，净买入8.38亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有航天发展、紫金矿业、香农芯 创、中国铝业、招商银行、澜起科技、信维通信、珂玛科技、中钨高新等。 | 序号 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 证券代码 ◆ | 证券简称 = | 交易日期÷ | 融资净买入额(万元) ◆ | | 1 | 600111.SH | 北方稀土 | 2026-01-07 | 83,805.36 | | 2 | 000547.SZ | 航天发展 | 2026-01-07 | 77.192.41 | | 3 | 601899.SH | 蒙美矿业 | 2026-01-07 | 54,104.59 | | ব | 300475.SZ | 香农芯创 | 2026-01-07 | 53,010.37 | | 5 | 601600.SH | 中国铝业 | 2026-01-07 | 50,680.43 | | 6 | 600036.SH | 招商银行 | 2026-01-07 | 43,869.23 | | 7 | 688008.S ...

Group 1 - As of January 7, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 26,047.42 billion yuan, an increase of 248.42 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading transaction volume on the same day was 3,312.32 billion yuan, which is an increase of 23.26 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 11.49% of the total A-share transaction volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, 27 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 6.393 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, pharmaceutical and biological, machinery equipment, and communication [3] Group 3 - A total of 87 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Northern Rare Earth leading at a net inflow of 838.54 million yuan [3][4] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Aerospace Development, Zijin Mining, Shannon Chip Creation, China Aluminum, China Merchants Bank, Lanke Technology, XW Communication, Kema Technology, and Zhongtung High-Tech [3][4]