Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Xinji Energy (601918.SH) [1] Core Views - The commissioning of the second phase of the Lixin Power Plant is expected to sustain high growth in the thermal power business [1] - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 12,717 million yuan, with a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, followed by a significant increase of 13% in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 13% in 2024, reaching 2,379 million yuan [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 12,003 million yuan - 2023A: 12,845 million yuan - 2024E: 12,717 million yuan - 2025E: 14,334 million yuan - 2026E: 20,373 million yuan [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 2,064 million yuan - 2023A: 2,109 million yuan - 2024E: 2,379 million yuan - 2025E: 2,512 million yuan - 2026E: 2,944 million yuan [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.81 yuan - 2024E: 0.92 yuan - 2025E: 0.97 yuan - 2026E: 1.14 yuan [2] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024E: 9.3 - 2025E: 8.8 - 2026E: 7.5 [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2024E: 15% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 16% [1] Business Performance - **Coal Production**: - In Q3 2024, the coal production decreased by 16.49% year-on-year, with a total of 452 million tons [1] - **Power Generation**: - The power generation for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 16.18% year-on-year, reaching 40 billion kWh [1] - **Average On-grid Electricity Price**: - Increased by 20.77% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued expansion in the power business due to the commissioning of new projects and an increase in electricity generation capacity [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Xinjie Energy [1][4] Core Views - The commissioning of the second phase of the Lixin power plant is expected to drive growth in the company's electricity business [1][3] - The company is leveraging its geographical advantages and expanding its coal-electricity integration process, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 12,003 million yuan, with a projected increase to 12,845 million yuan in 2023 and 12,999 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.0% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024 [1][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2,077 million yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 2,109 million yuan in 2023 and 2,209 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.6% in 2023 and 4.7% in 2024 [1][6] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected to increase from 0.80 yuan in 2022 to 0.81 yuan in 2023 and 0.85 yuan in 2024 [1][7] Business Performance - The coal business saw a sales revenue of 7,748 million yuan in the first nine months of 2024, a decrease of 6.66% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3,049 million yuan, down 5.16% [2][4] - The electricity generation business reported a significant increase in output, with a total generation of 8,604 million kWh in the first nine months of 2024, up 16.14% year-on-year [3][4] Cost and Pricing - The average selling price of coal for the first nine months of 2024 was 562.03 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.14% year-on-year, while the cost was 340.88 yuan per ton, up 2.18% [1][2] - The electricity selling price for the same period was 405.8 yuan per MWh, a slight decrease of 0.93% year-on-year [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12,999 million yuan, 13,890 million yuan, and 16,575 million yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2,209 million yuan, 2,436 million yuan, and 2,633 million yuan [4][6] - The report anticipates a continued increase in EPS, reaching 0.85 yuan in 2024, 0.94 yuan in 2025, and 1.02 yuan in 2026 [4][6]

编号：2024-投关-011 证券代码：601918 证券简称：新集能源 中煤新集能源股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | 投资者关系 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | 业绩说明会 | | 活动类别 | | 新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场调研 □电话会议 | | | | 参与单位名 称及人员 | 线上参会人员：社会公众股东 | | | | | 时间 | 2024 年 10 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinjie Energy (601918) is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance in coal and electricity generation is stable, with a focus on transformation and efficiency improvements in the coal-electricity integration [4][6] - The company achieved a net profit of 6.49 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will grow to 23.4 billion yuan in 2024, with an estimated EPS of 0.90 yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 91.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 18.2 billion yuan, both down 5% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 alone, the company generated a net profit of 6.49 billion yuan, which is a 12.2% increase from the previous quarter [4] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 562 yuan per ton, up 3.1% year-on-year [5] Coal Business Analysis - The coal production and sales volume for the first three quarters were 13.88 million tons and 13.79 million tons, respectively, down 6.7% and 9.5% year-on-year [5] - The average sales cost of coal was 341 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit from coal business for the first three quarters was 30.5 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [5] Power Generation Analysis - The company’s electricity sales volume in Q3 increased significantly by 86% quarter-on-quarter, with a total generation of 39.94 billion kWh [6] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 4% to 0.3992 yuan per kWh in Q3 [6] - The company is progressing steadily with its coal and renewable energy projects, which are expected to enhance its power generation capacity and profitability [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.4 billion yuan, 23.6 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 9.02 to 10.82 yuan based on a PE ratio of 10 to 12 times for 2024 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in power generation in Q3 2024, leading to overall performance improvements both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 9.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.82 billion yuan, also down by 5.0% year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights the company's coal business, which saw an increase in gross profit per ton due to higher coal prices, despite a decline in production and sales volume [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.20 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Net profit for the same period was 650 million yuan, up 12.2% quarter-on-quarter and up 5.9% year-on-year [3][4]. - The average return on equity (ROE) was 12.76%, down by 2.70 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Coal Business - The company produced 13.88 million tons of coal in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with sales volume down by 9.5% [4]. - The average selling price of coal was 562 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 221 yuan per ton, up 4.8% year-on-year [4]. Power Generation - Total power generation for the first three quarters was 8.60 billion kWh, an increase of 16.1% year-on-year, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 85.9% in Q3 [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.40 yuan per kWh, down 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, but the revenue from the power business reached 1.50 billion yuan, up 78.9% quarter-on-quarter and 16.3% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 5%, 9%, and 16% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 12%, 7%, and 21% for the same years [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong position in the coal market and the expected stabilization of coal quality, which will enhance performance stability [7].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 新集能源 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |---------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 黄涛 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38674879 | | huangtao@gtjas.com | | S0880515090001 | | --- | |-----------------------------| | | | 邓铖琦 ( 分析师 ) | | 010-83939825 | | dengchengqi024452@gtjas.com | | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： Q3 煤炭成本提升，毛利微降；发电量大增拉动业绩环比提高，煤电一体化持续推进； 发布《"十四五"发展规划(中期调整)纲要》，提质增效可期。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 下调盈利预测，维持目标价和增持评级。2024 前三季度实现营收 91.89 亿元，同比-5.19%；归母净利润 18.24 亿元，同比-5.01%。其 中 Q3 实现收入 32.04 亿元，同比- ...

九毛八是在我们的管控范围之内的所以我们也希望在最后一个月不会有大的成本进入那么从目前的时间来看我们朝着这个目标可能是实现的越来越近了也有可能大概率我们就会实现这种成本管控的这么一个目标 这个是这么个现象那么从销量来看呢其实今年一到三季度末我们同比销量是略有些下降的主要是我们上半年生产有一些阶梯和一些事故的影响造成我们产量偏低那么进入九月份以来九月底以来 公司逐渐在调整生产节奏目前我们争取在四季度在产量上能够对前三季度造成的一些产量的下降能再做一些弥补这样我们判断四季度我们的成本管控相对应该还是比较平滑的管控线是在我们计划范围之内的大概率是不会出现 这么个现象的发生第二个问题我想请您介绍一下目前我们安徽省对于明年的长期电价目前的一个谈判签约的情况有没有一些更新 好的,据我们现在了解,安徽省目前还没有进一步就二五年的床鞋店价有进一步的明确的政策和消息我们判断根据以往的惯例应该会在十二月中旬以后才会出现 那么从安徽省今年1到9月份的电力需求增长来看安徽省的电力供给关系目前还是处于一个偏紧张的态势今年1到9月份安徽省电力需求增长是14%这个增长量应该是在全国电力需求增长排在前列的 那么需求比较好那么电价下降的可能性就 ...

九毛八是在我们的管控范围之内的所以我们也希望在最后一个月不会有大的成本进入那么从目前的时间来看我们朝着这个目标可能是实现的越来越近了也有可能大概率我们就会实现这种成本管控的这么一个目标 这个是这么个现象那么从销量来看呢其实今年一到三季度末我们同比销量是略有些下降的主要是我们上半年生产有一些阶梯和一些事故的影响造成我们产量偏低那么进入九月份以来九月底以来 公司逐渐在调整生产节奏目前我们争取在四季度在产量上能够对前三季度造成的一些产量的下降能再做一些弥补这样我们判断四季度我们的成本管控相对应该还是比较平滑的管控线是在我们计划范围之内的大概率是不会出现 这么个现象的发生第二个问题我想请您介绍一下目前我们安徽省对于明年的长期电价目前的一个谈判签约的情况有没有一些更新 好的,据我们现在了解,安徽省目前还没有进一步就二五年的床鞋店价有进一步的明确的政策和消息我们判断根据以往的惯例应该会在十二月中旬以后才会出现 那么从安徽省今年1到9月份的电力需求增长来看安徽省的电力供给关系目前还是处于一个偏紧张的态势今年1到9月份安徽省电力需求增长是14%这个增长量应该是在全国电力需求增长排在前列的 那么需求比较好那么电价下降的可能性就 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 3.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.63%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 649 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.16% [1]. - The coal segment showed stable production and sales, with coal sales revenue at 7.748 billion yuan, down 6.66% year-on-year, and sales costs at 4.699 billion yuan, down 7.61% year-on-year [2]. - The power generation segment saw significant improvement, with Q3 2024 power generation reaching 3.994 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 85.94% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total coal production of 15.5771 million tons, a decrease of 6.17% year-on-year, and a total coal sales volume of 13.786 million tons, down 9.5% year-on-year [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.4058 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.93% year-on-year [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 2.222 billion, 2.643 billion, and 3.422 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86, 1.02, and 1.32 yuan [3][6]. Financial Data and Ratios - The company's total assets are projected to be 35.304 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.41% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.29 [6][9]. - The company’s operating income for 2024 is expected to be 12.991 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.14% [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) with a stable and promising growth outlook [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.189 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.824 billion yuan, down 5.01% year-on-year [2][3] - The coal business showed a slight increase in prices quarter-on-quarter, with a comprehensive selling price of 562 yuan/ton for the first three quarters of 2024, up 3.14% year-on-year [3] - The power generation segment saw a significant increase in output, with a total generation of 8.604 billion kWh for the first three quarters of 2024, up 16.14% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.63%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.45% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 649 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.16% [2] - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters was 15.5771 million tons, down 6.17% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 13.786 million tons, down 9.5% year-on-year [3] Business Segments Summary - The coal business maintained a unit gross profit of 221.2 yuan/ton for the first three quarters of 2024, up 10.36% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 39% [3] - The power generation segment's average on-grid electricity price was 0.4058 yuan/kWh for the first three quarters of 2024, down 0.93% year-on-year, while the revenue from power generation was 3.293 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its power generation capacity with new projects, which are expected to enhance the synergy between coal and power generation [4] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 12.528 billion yuan, 14.086 billion yuan, and 15.592 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.322 billion yuan, 2.583 billion yuan, and 2.782 billion yuan [4][5]