Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The coal prices have shown a continuous upward trend due to increased daily consumption and reduced inventory as the peak season approaches [5] - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 5.524 million tons, an increase of 1.096 million tons, while the coal arrival volume was 6.376 million tons, up by 1.31 million tons year-on-year [5] - The coal supply elasticity is limited due to strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, leading to a potential new normal of underproduction [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index dropped by 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.92 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 10.35%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 3.05% [15] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 1, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 663 CNY/ton, up by 1.5% week-on-week [3][30] - The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.474 million tons, down by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.2 Annual Long-term Price - The long-term price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [28] 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for Inner Mongolia's 5500K coal rose by 25.5 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's price increased by 32 CNY/ton [30] 2.4 Supply and Demand 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 80.2%, down by 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines decreased by 3.32% week-on-week [42] 2.4.2 Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased slightly to 87.7 million tons, up by 0.63% week-on-week [46] - The inventory of these power plants decreased to 1,394.3 million tons, down by 0.26% week-on-week [46] 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The total inventory index for thermal coal was 192 points, down by 1.8% week-on-week [56] - The inventory at Qinhuangdao port dropped significantly to 535 million tons, down by 8.23% week-on-week [66] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remained stable at 1,680 CNY/ton [80] - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 million tons [80] 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for Shanxi's coking coal increased by 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while prices in Henan and Anhui remained unchanged [81]

证券之星消息，7月31日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日下跌2.24%，淮北矿业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3573.21，下跌1.18%。深证成指报收于11009.77，下跌1.73%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6009885 | 淮北矿业 | 12.29 | -4.95% | 39.74万 | | 4.94亿 | | 669109 | 路安环能 | 13.72 | -4.85% | 93.69万 | | 12.88ZI | | 601666 | 平煤股份 | 7.93 | -4.57% | 66.86万 | | 5.33 Z | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | 4.10 | -4.43% | - 59.06万 | | 2.44亿 | | 601001 | XD晋控煤 | 13.06 | -4.39% | 38.26万 | | 5.00亿 | | 601101 | 量中能源 | 7.28 | -4.34% | 28.65万 | | ...

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research in the past 30 days include Ice Wheel Environment, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Boshi Jie, Yapu Co., and Huasheng Lithium Battery [13][14] - In the last five days, the most researched companies were Huasheng Lithium Battery, Weili Transmission, Hudian Co., Zhejiang Fu Holdings, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [13][15] - Among the top twenty companies researched in the past 30 days, seven had ten or more rating agencies, including Yanjing Beer, Hudian Co., Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, BOE Technology Group, Hualing Steel, and Northern Rare Earth [13][14] - Yanjing Beer, Hudian Co., and BOE Technology Group are expected to see significant growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 compared to 2023 [13][14] Group 2: Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, no companies reported significant shareholder increase announcements [16] - From January 1 to July 25, 2025, a total of 241 companies announced shareholder increases, with 63 having ten or more rating agencies [17] - Among these, 21 companies had an average proposed increase amount exceeding 1% of the latest market value, including Xianhe Co., Hubei Yihua, Xinji Energy, and Sailun Tire [17][18] Group 3: A-Share Buyback Situation - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, a total of 101 companies announced buyback progress, with 18 having ten or more rating agencies [21] - Four companies, including Jian Sheng Group, Mousse Co., Jinfa Technology, and Jinzai Food, had an average expected buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date [21][22] - From January 1 to July 25, 2025, 1,605 companies announced buyback progress, with 348 having ten or more rating agencies [23] - Among these, 97 companies had a significant buyback ratio, with an average expected buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date [23][24]

从中证沪港深互联互通中小综合能源指数持仓样本的行业来看，煤炭占比37.69%、焦炭占比19.45%、 油气开采占比12.76%、燃油炼制占比12.13%、油田服务占比8.87%、油气流通及其他占比5.85%、天然 气加工占比3.25%。 资料显示，该指数系列样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五 的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一 个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对该指数系列样本进行临时调整。当样本退市 时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处 理。当中证沪港深500指数、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合指数和中证沪港深互联互通综合指数样本发 生变动时，将进行相应调整。 据了解，中证沪港深行业指数系列将中证沪港深 500、中证沪港深互联互通中小综合以及中证沪港深互 联互通综合指数样本按行业分类标准分别分为 11 个行业，再以各行业全部证券作为样本编制指数，以 反映中证沪港深指数系列中不同行业公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a tightening supply side due to government policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand situation and a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 645 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1650 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [11][42] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 51,000 tons/day (-13.04%) and in coastal provinces by 19,600 tons/day (-8.1%) [11][42] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 429,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight increase of 85,000 tons [11] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the coal mining sector rising by 8.00% this week, outperforming the broader market [15][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for their stable operations and solid performance [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Insights - The recent notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production checks is interpreted as a significant policy move to curb overproduction, potentially leading to a marginal reduction in coal supply of 140 million tons in the second half of the year, which represents 3% of the projected national coal output for 2024 [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 7.93% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.24 percentage points, indicating strong market performance [6][20] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reached 653 RMB/ton, an increase of 11 RMB/ton week-on-week, while coking coal prices at Jingtang port rose to 1680 RMB/ton, up 240 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20] Summary by Sections Policy and Production Impact - The policy aims to stabilize coal prices above long-term contract prices by enforcing stricter production limits, with annual coal output not exceeding announced capacity and monthly output limited to 110% of announced capacity [8] - The production check will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with significant overproduction noted in Xinjiang and some months exceeding 100% capacity utilization in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia [8][14] Market Performance - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable fundamentals and expectations of reduced supply due to the production checks, leading to a positive outlook for coal prices in the short term [6][20] - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption, further supporting price increases [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential for growth and stability, including: - Elastic stocks: Lu'an Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, and Shanxi Coal International - Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical - Transitioning growth companies: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [10][11]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing a price rebound due to policy interventions aimed at regulating production and stabilizing supply [2][12]. - The recent "overproduction" inspection by the National Energy Administration has catalyzed a positive market sentiment, leading to a slight increase in coal prices [14][33]. - The overall supply recovery in coal-producing regions remains limited, with some mines resuming normal production while others are temporarily halting operations due to monthly production targets and adverse weather conditions [14][33]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose by 8.00%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 6.31 percentage points, marking it as the top performer among CITIC sectors [2][75]. - As of July 25, the price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal reached approximately 650 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained due to inspections and production regulations, which have led to a cautious optimism among market participants regarding price stability [14][33]. - Downstream demand remains stable, particularly from the metallurgical and chemical sectors, contributing to a positive outlook for coal prices [14][33]. Focus on Key Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong performance potential, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, recommending them for investment due to their robust earnings forecasts [10][11]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring domestic supply conditions and the recovery of imported coal from Mongolia [7][11]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of coking coal has seen significant increases, with some varieties rising by 300 to 400 CNY/ton since July [6][39]. - The price of main coking coal at the port reached 1,680 CNY/ton, up 240 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by strong demand and limited supply [39][51]. Inventory and Production Insights - Inventory levels for coking coal are decreasing, with port inventories reported at 292,000 tons, down 29,000 tons week-on-week [48][63]. - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, indicating ongoing challenges for coking companies despite rising prices [70][74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The expectation of supply contraction is rising, leading to a strong rebound in coal prices. This is primarily driven by policy changes on the supply side, which have intensified expectations of reduced supply. The "overproduction leads to shutdown" policy and a significant decrease in coal imports are key factors [7][8]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal remains robust due to high temperatures, with power plants expected to maintain high daily consumption levels. The ongoing summer peak demand is anticipated to support coal prices [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 181.62 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 177.44 billion yuan [2]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent policy changes have led to increased uncertainty in domestic coal supply. A national coal mine production inspection is set to take place, focusing on compliance with production limits [7]. - In June 2025, China's imports of thermal coal fell to 23.93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.11%, marking the lowest level in 28 months [7]. 3. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 659 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan per ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 200 yuan per ton [8]. - The price of coking coal at the same port increased by 240 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week growth of 16.67% [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控煤业, which are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7]. - Other companies like China Shenhua, Huaihe Energy, and Longyuan Power are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the favorable market conditions [7][8]. 5. Financial Performance and Dividends - The report tracks the dividend policies and growth prospects of key companies, indicating that several firms are expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts in the coming years [13][14].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3570.20 points, above the six-month moving average, with a change of 0.29% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 15610.05 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 61 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Huabei Mining: 8.00% deviation rate, with a price increase of 8.60% [1] - Hengjin Induction: 7.25% deviation rate, with a price increase of 8.04% [1] - Shanmei International: 7.00% deviation rate, with a price increase of 10.04% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the six-month moving average include: - Juhua Technology: minor deviation rate [1] - *ST Chuntian: minor deviation rate [1] - Hanzhong Precision Machinery: minor deviation rate [1]