Summary of New Energy Company Conference Call Company Overview - New Energy Company reported a revenue of 9 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.477 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with earnings per share of 0.57 yuan as of September 30, 2025 [2][4][10] - Total assets stood at 49.898 billion yuan with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.1% and equity attributable to shareholders of 16.4 billion yuan [2][4] Key Financial Metrics - In Q3 2025, the company produced 4.74 million tons of commercial coal, with sales driven by inventory release and market price adjustments [2][5] - The average price of commercial coal was 523 yuan per ton, with a complete cost of 418 yuan per ton [4][10] - Power generation reached 4.3 billion kWh, with sales recovering to last year's Q4 levels, primarily due to increased demand from high temperatures [2][8] Production and Capacity Insights - The company has a certified capacity of 23.5 million tons, with actual production stable at around 22 million tons [2][7] - An expected overproduction of approximately 800,000 tons for the year is anticipated, but it will not exceed the certified capacity [2][7] Cost Management and Pricing Mechanism - The company has implemented strict cost control measures, achieving a complete cost of 418 yuan per ton in Q3, lower than the previous year [2][10] - The pricing mechanism consists of capacity pricing, grid transaction prices, and subsidies, with capacity pricing set to increase to 165 yuan per kW in 2026 [3][10] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The upcoming commissioning of new units in Anhui province is expected to intensify supply-demand dynamics, potentially increasing electricity prices and reducing intermediary margins [2][9] - The company anticipates stable coal quality improvements, with an expected increase of 100 to 130 kcal per gram compared to last year [11] Regional Insights - The pricing mechanism in Jiangxi province remains under government control, with a grid price of 0.49 yuan per kWh, differing from Anhui's market-based pricing [13] - New power plants in Shangrao, Chuzhou, and Liu'an are progressing as expected, with profit calculations aligning with projections [12][16] Conclusion - The company is optimistic about meeting its annual coal production and sales targets despite slight production declines due to maintenance [14] - Overall, the company is focused on maintaining cost efficiency and adapting to market changes while preparing for regulatory updates expected in December [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price continues to rise, but the coal sector is experiencing increased volatility. Despite the nearing end of concentrated coal replenishment by power plants, extreme weather and tight supply conditions suggest that coal prices are likely to rise in Q4 2025 and may recover year-on-year by 2026. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the coal sector, which has shown signs of bottom reversal, supported by strong short-term fundamentals, a global interest rate cut cycle, and resilient long-term demand [2][7][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.76 percentage points, ranking 22nd out of 32 industries. As of October 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 770 CNY/ton, up 22 CNY/ton week-on-week. The report anticipates that coal prices will likely remain stable and fluctuate in the short term due to tight supply and seasonal demand [6][15][19] Supply and Demand Situation - As of October 23, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 5.335 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.8%. The total coal inventory was 128.17 million tons, with a usable days count of 24.0 days, down 0.5 days from the previous week. The report indicates that coal supply remains tight due to production checks and seasonal demand [16][34][36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong defensive and offensive characteristics, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (H+A), China Power Investment Corporation, and Xinji Energy. It also suggests considering companies with high elasticity and growth potential, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinkong Coal Industry, as well as stable leaders like China Shenhua Energy [7][27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the underlying logic for the recent rise in coal prices is due to supply constraints caused by increased safety inspections and production restrictions. It predicts that coal prices will continue to rise, especially if demand exceeds expectations, such as during a cold winter [2][7] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production has been declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September, and this trend is expected to continue into October [2][11] - The report notes that the current low inventory levels compared to the previous year will reduce price suppression, allowing for greater price elasticity if demand increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates that the coal mining index increased by 1.46% but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 3.24% [2][74] - It mentions that the price of thermal coal has stabilized after a rapid increase, with the current price at 770 RMB/ton, up by 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][34] - The report also states that the supply of coking coal remains tight, with prices reaching new highs due to strong demand from downstream industries [11][52] Key Areas of Analysis - For thermal coal, the report identifies ongoing supply disruptions and low port inventories as factors that make prices likely to rise [12][15] - In the coking coal segment, the report notes that prices have surged due to strong purchasing sentiment from downstream users, with some prices increasing by 30-100 RMB/ton since October [11][52] - The report highlights that the overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry remains stable, with expectations for further price increases as production constraints persist [2][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, all rated as "Buy" [10] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply situation and potential demand recovery in the coal market, particularly in relation to the real estate sector [11][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed significant improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a focus on the growth potential of coal-electricity integration [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 9.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.477 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year [4] - Q3 revenue reached 3.199 billion yuan, up 10.25% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 555.6 million yuan, an increase of 43.12% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company is expected to benefit from rising coal and electricity prices in the second half of the year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company experienced a significant improvement in performance, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter [4] - The company’s coal production slightly decreased due to planned maintenance, but sales performance was strong due to inventory sales, and prices improved due to a recovery in market coal prices [5] - The electricity business saw a significant rebound in generation and sales due to high temperatures in Anhui, with improved market electricity prices contributing to better profitability [5] Coal-Electricity Integration - The company is actively pursuing coal-electricity integration, with a total production capacity of 23.5 million tons per year across five production mines as of September 2025 [6] - Ongoing projects, including the Shangrao Power Plant and Chuzhou Power Plant, are progressing as planned, with expected increases in installed capacity and operational synergies [6] Dividend Outlook - The company plans to increase its cash dividend per share to 0.16 yuan for the 2024 fiscal year, with a dividend payout ratio of 17.3% [6] - Management anticipates improving dividend ratios as capital expenditure peaks and cash flow improves following the commissioning of new power plants [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.107 billion yuan, 2.297 billion yuan, and 2.457 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.95 yuan [7] - The P/E ratios for the upcoming years are estimated at 8.7, 8.0, and 7.5 times, indicating potential valuation improvement [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have reached a significant threshold of 750 CNY per ton and are currently experiencing an upward trend, with expectations to reach a target price range of 800-860 CNY per ton [5][6] - The increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction due to strict production checks and a surge in demand driven by heating needs during the northern cold wave [5] - Coking coal prices have also rebounded significantly, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1760 CNY per ton, up from 1230 CNY per ton in early July, marking a cumulative increase of 73.5% [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, and its price recovery is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and moving towards the breakeven point for power plants [6][15] - The ideal target for coal price recovery is around 750 CNY per ton, with an anticipated upward movement towards the breakeven line of 860 CNY [6][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [6][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The cyclical logic is supported by the current low prices of thermal and coking coal, which have room for rebound [7][16] - Four main lines for stock selection are proposed: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin Kong Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinji Energy, Guanghui Energy [7][16] Key Market Indicators - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Qin Port Q5500 thermal coal is 770 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.94% [19] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 14.82, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating the sector's valuation relative to the broader market [25][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. coal energy agenda is accelerating, with Republican lawmakers proposing a "Coal Week" to bolster coal production and keep aging coal-fired power plants operational. This aligns with federal efforts to revitalize the coal industry, including plans to open 13 million acres of federal land for coal leasing and allocate approximately $625 million for restarting or modernizing coal power units [2][3]. - Competitive coal mining rights auctions are being held in Alabama, Montana, and Utah, serving as indicators of industry demand. However, early auction activities show mixed interest, with some land receiving minimal bids [3]. - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including Yancoal Energy, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy, among others, emphasizing their performance resilience and potential for growth [6]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - Coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle port coal priced at $110.65 per ton, down by $0.8 from the previous week, and European ARA port coal at $96 per ton, down by $1.77 [31]. Market Trends - The report notes a marginal increase in coal power demand, indicating a potential recovery in the coal sector as energy needs shift [34]. Key Companies - Recommended stocks include: - China Qinfa (Buy) with projected EPS of 0.20 in 2024 - Jiangxi Tungsten (Buy) with projected EPS of -0.28 in 2024 - China Shenhua (Buy) with projected EPS of 2.95 in 2024 - Jinneng Holding (Buy) with projected EPS of 1.68 in 2024 - Yancoal Energy (Buy) with projected EPS of 1.44 in 2024 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it's a good time to allocate coal stocks on dips. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the 15th Five - Year Plan. With the westward shift of coal layout and rising costs, coal prices are likely to remain high. The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, and the team continues to be bullish on the coal sector and suggests investors focus on the allocation opportunities at the current stage [3][11][12] Summary by Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: In the current coal economic cycle, supply is tightening due to policies like "over - production inspection", and demand is expected to pick up with the "peak winter" approaching. Coal prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner. The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal stocks are of high cost - effectiveness. Suggest investors allocate on dips [3][11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on stable companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry; oversold and high - elasticity companies like Yankuang Energy; and high - quality coking coal companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy. Also, pay attention to Huayang Co., Ltd., Yankuang Australia, etc. [3][12] - **Key Focus**: In the first three quarters, the national raw coal output was 3.57 billion tons, a 2.0% year - on - year increase. In September, the electricity consumption increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Australia's coal exports in the first three quarters of 2025 are expected to decline by 5.3% year - on - year [13] II. This Week's Performance of Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 1.46% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.68. The top three performing sectors were communication, electronics, and machinery [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors rose 1.68%, 0.89%, and 1.08% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Shanghai Energy (5.65%), Xinji Energy (4.72%), and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. (3.83%) [19] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of October 24, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 691.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500K) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 676.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At Qinhuangdao Port, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 768 yuan/ton on October 25, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week. In production areas, prices in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Datong also increased. Internationally, some prices rose while others fell [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports like Jingtang Port and Lianyungang, and in production areas like Linfen and Yanzhou, coking coal prices increased. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China also rose [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: The car - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite and the car - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi and Yangquan increased [40] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 85.06%, down 2.3 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of October 24, the price difference of 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal between domestic and international markets decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw an increase in daily coal consumption and inventory, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in daily consumption and an increase in inventory [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index rose, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke remained flat, the blast furnace operating rate increased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference increased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises increased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: The prices of urea in some regions changed, the national methanol price index fell, the national ethylene glycol price index rose, the national acetic acid price index fell, the national synthetic ammonia price index rose, the national cement price index fell, the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, and the float glass operating rate remained flat [68][72][74] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased, the inventory of 55 ports' thermal coal decreased, and the inventory of sample mines' thermal coal decreased [88] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production area's coking coal inventory decreased, the port's coking coal inventory increased, the coking enterprises' coking coal inventory increased, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased [89] - **Coke Inventory**: The coking enterprises' coke inventory decreased, the port's coke inventory increased, and the steel mills' coke inventory decreased [91] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of October 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1991.0 points, down 78.0 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway this week was 100.2 tons, up 0.18 tons week - on - week [104] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio of Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of October 24, the inventory of four major ports in the Bohai Rim was 1430.9 tons, down 22.10 tons week - on - week, the number of anchored ships was 100, up 8 week - on - week, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 14.3, down 1.48 week - on - week [102] VII. Weather Situation - As of October 24, the Three Gorges outflow was 11900 cubic meters per second, up 19.36% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, there will be significant precipitation in many regions, and some areas will experience more precipitation than usual. In the long - term, there will also be precipitation in some regions, and the temperature in some areas will be higher or lower than normal [109] VIII. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE ratios of multiple listed coal companies from 2024 to 2027 [110] - **Key Announcements**: This week, companies such as Huaihe Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and China Shenhua made announcements regarding asset acquisitions, share pledge releases, profit distributions, and project commissioning [111][113][114]

Core Insights - New Hope Energy (601918) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.477 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 19.06% [1] - The company's operating revenue for the same period was about 9.01 billion yuan, down 1.95% year-on-year [1] Company Overview - New Hope Energy primarily engages in coal mining, coal washing, and thermal power generation, with a focus on the sale of coal and electricity [1] - The company's business spans both the coal and electricity sectors [1] Market Performance - As of October 24, the stock price of New Hope Energy closed at 7.1 yuan per share, reflecting a decrease of 1.11% [1] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 18.39 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Energy reported a decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the coal and power sectors [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, New Hope Energy achieved a net profit of approximately 1.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.06% [1] - The company's operating revenue for the same period was about 9.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.95% [1] Business Overview - New Hope Energy primarily engages in coal mining, coal washing, and thermal power generation, with sales focused on coal and electricity [1] - The company's operations span both the coal and electricity industries [1] Market Performance - As of October 24, the stock price of New Hope Energy closed at 7.1 yuan per share, down 1.11%, with a total market capitalization of 18.39 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10][11] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 showed significant growth in coal and electricity sales, leading to a notable increase in overall performance compared to previous quarters [2][6] - The company is expected to achieve a coal-electricity integration by 2026, enhancing both growth potential and stability in earnings [10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.477 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year [5][10] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.199 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.16%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [5][10] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 555 million yuan, down 14.2% year-on-year but up 43.1% quarter-on-quarter [5][10] Coal Business - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's coal production and sales increased by 5.7% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively, while the average coal price decreased by 7% to 523 yuan per ton [6][10] - In Q3 2025, coal sales volume and price both increased, with sales volume at 5.035 million tons (up 4.2% quarter-on-quarter) and average price at 513 yuan per ton (up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter) [6][10] Power Generation Business - The company reported a 28.2% year-on-year increase in power generation for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 11.03 billion kWh, although the average selling price of electricity decreased by 8.45% to 0.37 yuan per kWh [6][10] - In Q3 2025, power generation reached 4.37 billion kWh, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.4% [6][10] Future Outlook - The company is projected to have revenues of 12.175 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and net profits of 2.041 billion yuan, down 15% [10][11] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 12% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.01 [10][11]