Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to falling coal and electricity prices, but there is potential for growth through coal-electricity integration [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 5.811 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 920 million yuan, down 21.72% year-on-year [4][5] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been revised downwards, with expected figures of 2.04 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -14.8%, +9.9%, and +7.2% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 11.197 million tons, an increase of 7.88% year-on-year, while the average coal price was 529 yuan/ton, down 6.3% year-on-year [5] - The electricity generation for H1 2025 was 6.67 billion kWh, a significant increase of 44.6% year-on-year, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.37 yuan/kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [5] - The company has a total production capacity of 23.5 million tons/year from its coal mines and is actively expanding its coal-electricity integration strategy [6] Dividend Policy - The company has steadily increased its cash dividend from 0.01 yuan per share in 2018 to 0.16 yuan per share in 2024, with the 2024 cash dividend accounting for 17.32% of net profit attributable to shareholders [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 13.572 billion, 14.304 billion, and 15.263 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 5.4%, and 6.7% respectively [7] - The expected diluted EPS for 2025 to 2027 is 0.79, 0.86, and 0.93 yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in production and sales volume, while facing challenges from falling coal prices and electricity rates [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 saw operating revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.39 billion yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company’s coal production reached 11.2 million tons in H1 2025, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, with a total coal sales volume of 9.43 million tons, up 3.63% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of coal was 529 yuan per ton, down 6.3% year-on-year, while the external sales price was 513 yuan per ton, down 9.0% year-on-year [1] - The cost per ton of coal was 327 yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 201 yuan per ton, down 10.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Electricity Generation - The company’s electricity generation increased significantly, with a total output of 6.67 billion kWh in H1 2025, up 44.6% year-on-year [2] - The average on-grid electricity price was approximately 0.372 yuan per kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [2] - The electricity segment generated revenue of 2.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 30.2% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company has plans for new power generation capacity, including the commissioning of the Banjic Power Plant Phase II in October 2024 and additional projects scheduled for 2026 [2] - The company is also planning the resumption of operations at the Yangcun Mine [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.1 billion yuan, 14.3 billion yuan, and 14.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.01 billion yuan, 2.45 billion yuan, and 2.58 billion yuan [3] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 7.99, 6.79, and 6.48 for the respective years [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 公司研究丨点评报告丨新集能源（601918.SH） [Table_Title] 新集能源 2025H1 点评：控本降费缓解价减压 力，业绩底部改善可期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年半年报：2025 上半年实现归母净利润 9.20 亿元，同比下降 21.7%；单二季 度实现归母净利润 3.89 亿元，同比下降 32.8%，环比下降 26.9%。整体来看，煤炭业务方面， 煤价下行拖累业绩，成本管控&热值提升减缓降幅；电力业务方面，电价下行&度电成本抬升为 电力业绩偏低主因。展望未来，随着旺季电价回升&度电成本有望回归正常化，公司业绩有望底 部改善，长期成长性突出。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.co ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a decline in both revenue and net profit, indicating challenges in the coal and power generation sectors despite some operational improvements [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 5.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 920 million yuan, down 21.72% year-on-year [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) was 5.76%, a decrease of 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Coal Business - In the first half of 2025, the company saw a 6.2% increase in coal production, reaching 9.94 million tons, and a 3.6% increase in coal sales, totaling 9.43 million tons [3]. - The average coal price was 529 yuan per ton, down 6% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 327 yuan, a decrease of 3.5% [3]. - The gross profit per ton of coal was 201 yuan, down 10.6%, with a gross profit margin of 38% [3]. Power Generation Business - The company reported a 45% increase in electricity generation, with a total of 6.7 billion kWh produced in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.3716 yuan per kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, electricity generation was 3.04 billion kWh, a decrease of 16% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 41.7% year-on-year [5]. Construction and Development - The company is actively developing its coal-electricity integration strategy, with several power plants under construction, including the Banji Power Plant and the Lixin Wind Power Project [6]. - The Banji Power Plant's second phase is expected to be operational by 2026, contributing to the company's capacity of 7.98 million kW [6]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.2 billion, 13.4 billion, and 16.1 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 1.9 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating support from improved coal quality and increased power generation despite current coal price fluctuations [7].

Core Insights - On August 25, 2023, brokerage firms issued target prices for listed companies a total of 63 times, with notable increases in target prices for Longping High-Tech, Xinjie Energy, and Beixin Building Materials, showing increases of 38.75%, 37.40%, and 36.57% respectively, across the agriculture, coal mining, and construction materials sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Longping High-Tech (000998) received a target price of 14.00 yuan with a target increase of 38.75% from China International Capital Corporation [2]. - Xinjie Energy (601918) was assigned a target price of 9.00 yuan with a target increase of 37.40% from CITIC Securities [2]. - Beixin Building Materials (000786) had a target price of 36.90 yuan with a target increase of 36.57% from Tianfeng Securities [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 163 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on August 25, with Shede Spirits receiving 4 recommendations, Shuiyang Co. receiving 3, and Marubi Biological Technology receiving 3 [3]. - One company, Guodian Power (600795), had its rating upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" by Huayuan Securities [4]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - Three companies had their ratings downgraded on August 25, including Minhe Livestock (downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold"), Chifeng Gold (downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold"), and Silan Microelectronics (downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold") [4]. - Seven companies received initial coverage, including Ganhua Science and Technology (rated "Buy" by Dongwu Securities) and Wangneng Environment (rated "Buy" by Xinda Securities) [5].

南财投研通数据显示，8月25日，券商给予上市公司目标价共63次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有隆平 高科、新集能源、北新建材，目标价涨幅分别为38.75%、37.40%、36.57%，分别属于种植业、煤炭开采、装修建材行业。 | | | 08月25日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 最高目标价 | 目标涨幅 | | | | | | (元) | (%) | | 000998 | 隆平高科 | 中国国际金融 | 跑赢行业 | 14.00 | 38.75 | | 601918 | 新集能源 | 中信证券 | 买入 | 9.00 | 37.40 | | 000786 | 北新建材 | 天风证券 | 买入 | 36.90 | 36.57 | | 688123 | 聚辰股份 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 112.61 | 34.48 | | 301308 | 江波龙 | 华泰证券 | 买入 | 129.10 | 33.46 | | 000786 | 北新建材 | 中国国际金融 | ...

Core Viewpoint - On August 25, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for companies in the agriculture, coal mining, and construction materials sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these industries [1][2]. Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases were: - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科) with a target price increase of 38.75% to 14.00 CNY [2] - Xinji Energy (新集能源) with a target price increase of 37.40% to 9.00 CNY [2] - Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) with a target price increase of 36.57% to 36.90 CNY [2] Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 163 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on August 25, with notable mentions: - Shede Liquor (舍得酒业) received 4 recommendations [4] - Shuiyang Co. (水羊股份) and Marubi Biotechnology (丸美生物) each received 3 recommendations [4] Rating Adjustments - One company had its rating upgraded: - Guodian Power (国电电力) was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" by Huayuan Securities [5] - Three companies had their ratings downgraded: - Minhe Livestock (民和股份) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6] - Chifeng Gold (赤峰黄金) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6] - Silan Microelectronics (士兰微) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6] First-Time Coverage - Seven companies received first-time coverage with positive ratings: - Ganhua Science and Technology (甘化科工) received a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities [7] - Wangneng Environment (旺能环境) received a "Buy" rating from Xinda Securities [7] - Yingliu Co. (应流股份) received an "Increase" rating from Shanxi Securities [7] - New Clean Energy (新洁能) received an "Increase" rating from Industrial Securities [7] - Weijian Medical (稳健医疗) received a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.36 RMB [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations, with a revenue of 5.811 billion RMB, down 2.91% year-on-year, and a net profit of 920 million RMB, down 21.72% year-on-year. The lower-than-expected on-grid electricity price is a primary factor for this performance [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the "coal-electricity joint operation" effect as new coal power plants come online, which should enhance profitability [1][3]. - The external coal sales price decreased significantly in Q2 2025, but there is potential for recovery in Q3 2025 due to recent market price rebounds [2]. - The company has a substantial amount of coal power capacity under construction, which is anticipated to be operational by the end of 2025, further supporting the "coal-electricity joint operation" strategy [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a net profit of 920 million RMB, a decrease of 21.72% year-on-year, with a revenue of 5.811 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.91% decline year-on-year [1]. - The net profit from the coal segment fell by 21.75% to 816 million RMB due to declining coal prices [2]. Sales and Pricing - The external coal sales volume in Q2 2025 was 4.8304 million tons, with a sales price of 478 RMB per ton, down 13.72% year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in external coal prices in Q3 2025 due to recent market trends [2]. Future Outlook - The company has 4.64 million kW of coal power capacity under construction, expected to start production by the end of 2025, which will enhance the "coal-electricity joint operation" effect [3]. - The target price of 7.36 RMB is based on a revised earnings forecast, reflecting a decrease in expected net profits for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to supply constraints caused by heavy rainfall and production checks in key mining areas. It anticipates that coal prices will stabilize as temperatures drop across most regions [3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, noting that while some thermal coal prices have decreased, others have seen slight increases. The overall trend suggests a mixed but stable pricing environment [3][10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply and demand dynamics, with increased daily coal inflow and outflow at the ports, leading to a decrease in coal inventory levels [21]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report discusses recent developments in coal mining projects and safety initiatives, including approvals for increased production capacities in certain regions [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed results, with some prices remaining stable while others have increased slightly. Coking coal prices are expected to experience minor fluctuations before potentially rising again due to seasonal demand [10][12]. International Oil Prices - The report notes an increase in Brent crude oil prices, which may influence coal pricing dynamics. The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices is highlighted, with a noted increase in the ratio of oil to coal prices [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a decrease in coal inventory at the ports, with increased daily inflow and outflow rates. Shipping costs for domestic routes have also risen slightly, reflecting broader market trends [21][27]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections. Companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their stable operations and high dividend yields [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The Asian metallurgical coal market is expected to continue its recovery in Q3 2025, supported by post-monsoon inventory replenishment in India and potential rebounds in the Chinese domestic market [2]. - Despite supply pressures from adverse weather and safety issues in Australian mining, the overall outlook for the metallurgical coal market remains positive [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global energy prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil futures at $67.73 per barrel, up by $1.88 (+2.85%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures increased by $0.86 (+1.37%) to $63.66 per barrel [1]. - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia rose to $11.705 per million British thermal units, an increase of $0.847 (+7.80%) [1]. Coal Price Trends - European ARA port coal prices increased by $3.0 to $101.8 per ton (+3.1%), while Newcastle port coal prices rose slightly by $0.2 to $112.3 per ton (+0.2%) [1]. - The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $89.7 per ton, down by $0.5 (-0.4%) [1]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy (H+A) and China Shenhua (H+A), with a focus on companies showing potential for turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. - High-performing stocks include Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, China Energy Investment, and Huai Bei Mining, while companies like Yancoal and Jinkong Coal are noted for their flexibility and potential for growth [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant trend where China is transitioning from a coal importer to an exporter, driven by a surplus in the domestic market [8]. - The forecast for Q3 2025 anticipates that the price of high-quality low-volatile hard coking coal will average $178 per ton, with expectations of $181 per ton in the second half of 2025 [8].