Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Chinese Brokerage Industry - **Key Companies Mentioned**: - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) - CITIC Securities - China Galaxy Securities - GF Securities - Huatai Securities - Orient Securities Core Points and Arguments 1. **Supportive Measures for A-share Market**: - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing's speech on December 6 indicated a policy direction to build a first-class investment bank through mergers and acquisitions and sector consolidation, alongside relaxing capital requirements for selective brokers [1][5] 2. **Performance Assessment Guidelines**: - New guidelines announced by the Asset Management Association of China aim to align mutual fund managers' incentives with long-term fund performance, requiring significant reinvestment of performance-based compensation [2][5] - Fund managers face salary cuts if they underperform benchmarks significantly, promoting a focus on long-term performance [2][5] 3. **Earnings Growth Expectations**: - China brokers are expected to deliver robust earnings growth of 43% in 2025 and 14% in 2026, with projected ROE of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively, driven by strong A-share market performance [5] - Brokers with high leverage ratios, such as CICC, CITICS, and Orient, are anticipated to benefit more from potential capital ratio relaxations [5] 4. **Market Valuation**: - Covered H-share China brokers have seen a correction of -11% since the end of October, currently trading at 0.77x 2026 P/B, which is viewed as attractive [5] - The expectation of stabilizing fee rates post-sector consolidation could further enhance brokers' ROE, potentially leading to a re-rating of their valuations [5] 5. **Top Picks**: - Orient Securities is highlighted as a top pick due to its favorable positioning in the current market environment [1][5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Performance Focus**: - The new guidelines emphasize long-term indicators in key performance indicators (KPIs) for fund managers, with a significant portion of their performance metrics tied to long-term returns [2][5] - **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: - The ongoing NFAR policies are designed to encourage insurers to invest more long-term funds into the A-share market, which could further support the brokerage sector [1][5] - **Leverage Ratios**: - The leverage ratios for covered China brokers are expected to increase, which could enhance their profitability and market competitiveness [5][7]

昨日市场高开高走，沪深两市成交额2.04万亿，较上一个交易日放量3109亿，时隔20个交易日再度突破 2万亿元。板块方面，算力硬件、能源金属、福建等板块涨幅居前，煤炭、贵金属、油气等板块跌幅居 前。截至昨日收盘，沪指涨0.54%，深成指涨1.39%，创业板指涨2.6%。 在今天的券商晨会上，中信建投表示，国内首款脑机接口半侵入式产品将提交注册，脑机临床和商业化 进展加速；中金公司指出，寿险行业五大趋势值得关注；国金证券认为，外部环境改善，优质机构杠杆 上限有望提升，看好券商板块估值修复。 中信建投：国内首款脑机接口半侵入式产品将提交注册 脑机临床和商业化进展加速 中信建投表示，近期，部分脑机接口企业升级产品通道数，或计划提交三类证注册申报。预计国家及各 地政府对脑机接口产业的支持政策将持续推出，在多重政策强力支持下，临床和商业化落地有望提速， 投资机会将逐步增多。今年以来脑机接口相关上市公司估值提升，有望带动一级市场融资热度及相关公 司估值重构，资本和产业发展形成共振，建议关注自研能力较强或与头部高校院所有深度合作的标的， 或与知名脑机接口一级市场企业有投资入股或深度合作的标的。 中金公司：寿险行业五大趋势值 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月9日电，中金公司研报称，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调。中金公司认为，明年总量政策或将适度 加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也做减 法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改善供给，以实现合理增长。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中金公司研报表示，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调明年经济 工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供 给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、 外围环境仍有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。 我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改 善供给，以实现合理增长。 ...

Group 1 - CICC increased its stake in Haiwei Holdings (09609) by 179,600 shares at a price of HKD 11.622 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2.0873 million [1][3] - After the increase, CICC's total shareholding in Haiwei Holdings reached approximately 9.1862 million shares, representing a stake of 14.24% [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a year of upward fluctuations since September 2024, necessitating a focus on preventing market volatility. A methodology for identifying market "tops" has been developed, complementing previous research on "bottom" identification, to form a "stable market" monitoring framework. Current market conditions are deemed relatively healthy, with reasonable valuations and no fundamental changes in the underlying logic for upward movement [2][4]. Group 1: Market Stability and Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment for capital market stability is evolving, with recent statements from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizing the need for a long-term stability mechanism to prevent significant market fluctuations [3]. - The construction of a "stable market" mechanism is seen as essential for achieving high-quality development in China's capital markets and better serving the real economy [3]. Group 2: Historical Market Cycles - Since the stock reform in 2005, the A-share market has undergone five significant cyclical transitions, with notable upward phases occurring from June 2005 to October 2007, October 2008 to November 2010, December 2012 to June 2015, January 2016 to January 2018, and January 2019 to December 2021 [5]. - The characteristics of these cycles indicate that most upward phases align closely with improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, except for the 2013-2015 period, which was primarily driven by policy and liquidity [5]. Group 3: Methodology for Identifying Market Tops - The methodology for identifying market tops includes analyzing macroeconomic fundamentals, corporate earnings expectations, policy changes, valuation metrics, liquidity conditions, and investor behavior [8]. - Historical data shows that significant market tops are often accompanied by a combination of these signals, particularly macroeconomic and policy indicators, which are deemed primary signals, while valuation and liquidity metrics serve as auxiliary signals [53][55]. Group 4: Key Indicators and Signals - Key indicators for identifying potential market tops include changes in financial data such as M1 growth, PMI trends, and external macroeconomic shocks, which can significantly impact market sentiment [8][16]. - The analysis of corporate earnings cycles indicates that market tops often precede earnings peaks, with a typical lead time of 1-3 quarters, making it challenging to predict tops based solely on earnings data [16][20]. Group 5: Current Market Assessment - The current market score based on the developed monitoring framework is 22 points, indicating a low likelihood of a market top at this stage, as historical tops typically score above 60 points [57]. - Despite some signs of overheating in trading sentiment, such as high turnover rates and margin trading levels, there has not been a significant outflow of capital, suggesting that the market remains supported by underlying fundamentals [58].

Group 1 - The overall market capitalization has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, indicating a significant improvement in investor confidence and expectations, with enhanced market resilience and risk resistance [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the direction and goals for the next phase of capital market reform, emphasizing the need to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [2] - The focus is on enhancing institutional inclusiveness for technological innovation, optimizing the market ecology for long-term investments, and better utilizing the capital market as a platform for resource allocation [2] Group 2 - The development of direct financing through equity and bonds is a key task outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan," aimed at improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been actively promoting multi-tiered capital market systems and enhancing services for high-quality technology enterprises [2][4] - The introduction of the "1+6" reform policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in June and the establishment of a growth tier for unprofitable companies in July are significant steps in this direction [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market plays a crucial role in serving the real economy and optimizing resource allocation, with a focus on developing technology and green bonds [4] - Since the launch of the "Technology Board" for bonds on May 7, 2023, a total of 11,672.67 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds have been issued by 530 institutions by the end of September [4][5] - The future of the bond market is expected to continue focusing on technology innovation, foreign openness, and green development, with a diverse range of issuers [5] Group 4 - The A-share merger and acquisition market has been heating up, with significant reforms in the M&A market aimed at supporting the transformation and upgrading of listed companies [6] - Since the implementation of the "M&A Six Guidelines," over 1,000 M&A transactions have been disclosed in the Shanghai market, with a notable increase in technology-related mergers [6] - The future role of M&A is expected to further enhance the integration of technology and industry, reflecting a shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven economic growth [6][7] Group 5 - The cultivation of high-quality listed companies is essential for the stable operation of the capital market, with ongoing reforms to improve the delisting mechanism [7] - The delisting mechanism is being optimized to ensure a more orderly market ecology, allowing for a more effective selection process [7] - The focus on enhancing the delisting standards and mechanisms aims to improve the overall health and resource allocation efficiency of the capital market [7] Group 6 - As of the end of August, medium- and long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan of A-share circulating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [8] - The acceleration of medium- and long-term funds entering the market is expected to stabilize market fluctuations and promote a shift towards value investment and long-term investment [8][9] - The establishment of a more attractive "long money, long investment" system environment is crucial for supporting innovation and capital formation [9][10] Group 7 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to position the capital market as an aggregator of innovation, linking technology, industry, and policy [10] - The focus will be on providing long-term patient capital for technological innovation and supporting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [10]

Group 1 - CICC increased its stake in Haiwei Holdings by purchasing 179,600 shares at a price of HKD 11.622 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2.0873 million [1] - After the purchase, CICC's total shareholding in Haiwei Holdings reached approximately 9.1862 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 14.24% [1]

Group 1 - CICC increased its stake in Haiwei Holdings (09609) by 179,600 shares at a price of HKD 11.622 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2.0873 million [1] - Following the increase, CICC's total shareholding in Haiwei Holdings is approximately 9.1862 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 14.24% [1]

花旗发布研报称，中国证监会主席吴清指，要通过并购或行业整合建立一流投资银行的政策方向，并放 宽对部分证券商的资本要求，鼓励他们提高杠杆。 该行相信，中国券商将受惠于A股市场支持政策，特别是具有高杠杆比率的券商，如中金公司 (03908,601995.SH)、中信证券(06030,600030.SH)、及东方证券(03958,600958.SH)，预计中国证券商的 ROE将进一步上升，并可能促使公司重新估值，行业首选东方证券H股。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 该行提到，中国证监会就《基金管理公司绩效评估管理指引》向基金管理公司征求意见，为使公募基金 经理的利益与其基金的长期表现保持一致，另政策持续鼓励保险公司调整风险因素，将更多长期资金投 入A股市场，显示出内地对市场的支持。 ...