证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|千禾味业（603027） 经营调整，期待改善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月02日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 千禾味业发布 2024 半年报，2024H1 公司实现收入 15.89 亿元，同比增长 3.78%；归母净利润 为 2.51 亿元，同比下降 2.38%。其中 2024Q2 公司实现收入 6.94 亿元，同比下降 2.53%；归 母净利润为 0.96 亿元，同比下降 14.16%。 |分析师及联系人 刘景瑜 邓洁 SAC：S0590524030005 SAC：S0590524040002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月02日 千禾味业(603027) 经营调整，期待改善 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----------------------| | | | | 行 业： | 食品饮料/调味发酵品Ⅱ | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 13.47 元 | | 基本数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2024 mid-year results, showing a revenue of 1.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 251 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [2] - The soy sauce and vinegar businesses faced pressure, while other products showed steady growth. In Q2 2024, revenue from soy sauce and vinegar decreased by 3.1% and 10.2% respectively, while other products grew by 2.2% [2] - The company is actively adjusting its channel strategy, with a continuous increase in the number of distributors. As of the end of H1 2024, the number of distributors reached 3,560, an increase of 204 from the previous quarter [2] - Gross margin is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3 percentage points in Q2 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin products and increased competition [2] - The company launched several new products since June 2024, aiming to improve brand positioning and expand consumer demographics [3] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 34.3 billion, 38.3 billion, and 42.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 5.6 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7 billion yuan [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.589 billion yuan, a 3.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 251 million yuan, down 2.38% year-on-year [2] - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 694 million yuan, a decrease of 2.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, down 14.16% year-on-year [2] Product Performance - Soy sauce and vinegar revenues decreased due to high base effects and weak industry demand, while other products like oyster sauce and cooking wine showed strong growth [2] Channel Strategy - The company is expanding its distribution channels, with a net increase of 204 distributors in H1 2024, indicating a strategic shift to optimize product offerings and reduce low-price competition [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points in Q2 2024, primarily due to a higher share of low-margin products and increased promotional expenses [2] Future Outlook - The introduction of new products is expected to enhance performance, with a positive outlook for gradual improvement in sales as inventory levels remain healthy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 1.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.38% to 251 million yuan, indicating performance below expectations [2] - The soy sauce and vinegar segments faced pressure, while other products showed steady growth, with Q2 revenue for soy sauce and vinegar declining by 3.1% and 10.2% respectively, while other products grew by 2.2% [2] - The company is actively adjusting its channel strategy, with a net increase of 204 distributors in H1 2024, totaling 3,560 distributors, indicating ongoing channel expansion [2] - Gross margin is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3 percentage points in Q2 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin products and increased promotional efforts due to intensified competition [2] - New products launched since June 2024 are expected to improve performance, with a focus on high-end soy sauce and affordable products to broaden the consumer base [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 3.431 billion, 3.834 billion, and 4.228 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 564.85 million, 637.78 million, and 703.13 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 3.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.98%, and net profit of 564.85 million yuan, a growth of 6.48% [1][3] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 24.51, 21.71, and 19.69 respectively [1][3] - The gross margin is expected to be 36.20% in 2024, slightly declining from 37.15% in 2023 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a challenging performance in Q2 2024, with revenue and net profit showing a decline compared to the previous year. The company is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to strategic adjustments [1] - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 1.589 billion and 251 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8% and a decline of 2.4%, respectively. In Q2 2024, revenue and net profit were 694 million and 96 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% and 14.2% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its distribution channels and has seen rapid revenue growth in the northern region, despite overall weak demand and high base effects from the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's soy sauce and vinegar segments generated revenues of 1.000 billion and 202 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and a decline of 8.0%, respectively. In Q2 2024, these segments reported revenues of 433 million and 89 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -3.1% and -10.2% [1] - The company’s gross margin in H1 2024 was 35.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intensified industry competition and increased promotional activities [1] - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 15.8%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market and Channel Development - The company has strengthened its support for specialized channels and enhanced its e-commerce operations, leading to a year-on-year increase in direct sales revenue [1] - The total number of distributors at the end of Q2 2024 was 3,560, an increase of 310 from the end of the previous year, with significant growth in the northern region [1] Future Outlook - The company is adjusting its strategies to improve market performance, including product upgrades and refined channel management. The long-term potential of the zero-additive market remains promising [1][2] - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 567 million, 651 million, and 735 million yuan, reflecting a more competitive environment and weak consumer demand [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 250 million yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 690 million yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 96 million yuan, down 14.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The competitive intensity in the zero-additive market has increased, leading to revenue pressure in Q2 due to high base effects from the previous year. The soy sauce segment faced challenges, while other segments maintained stable growth [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend towards healthier products, with a focus on expanding its zero-additive product line and enhancing its distribution channels [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. The Q2 gross margin was 35.2%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and increased costs [1] - The sales expense ratio in Q2 2024 was 16%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting increased marketing expenditures. The management expense ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 3.4% [1] Product and Channel Strategy - The company plans to continue enriching its zero-additive product line and actively expand categories such as vinegar and cooking wine, with a focus on increasing the proportion of high-margin products [2] - The company is enhancing its distribution network and channel penetration, particularly in underdeveloped markets, which is expected to accelerate growth [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.56 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.76 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24x, 20x, and 18x [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][6][16]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 was below expectations, with revenue of 1.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, and a net profit of 251 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [1]. - The report highlights that the company is facing increased demand pressure and intensified market competition, leading to lower-than-expected revenue [1]. - Despite external pressures, the company is expected to maintain growth above the industry average due to established brand recognition and proactive channel and product strategies [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 694 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.53%, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.16% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 35.2%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.8%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.49, 0.54, and 0.63 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [1][7]. Business Segment Analysis - The report indicates that the soy sauce and vinegar segments experienced revenue declines of 3.1% and 10.2% year-on-year respectively in Q2 [1]. - The company has increased its number of distributors to 3,560, but the performance of these distributors has been mixed, with a year-on-year decline of 4.8% in distributor channels [1]. - Online sales channels showed positive growth, with direct sales increasing by 2.9% year-on-year [1]. Market Outlook - The industry is currently in a downturn, but the company is expected to recover growth in Q4 2024 as the base effect diminishes [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing efforts to enhance brand recognition and product offerings, which are anticipated to support future growth despite current challenges [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.589 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million yuan, a decrease of 2.38% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 694 million yuan, a decline of 2.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, down 14.16% year-on-year [3]. - The company is facing weak demand and has actively controlled inventory, leading to a revenue decline in Q2 [4]. - The company has launched new products to drive high-quality seasoning upgrades, including Qianhe concentrated soy sauce and Qianhe pure vinegar [4]. - The company is strengthening its marketing network and accelerating channel development, with a net increase of 204 distributors in the first half of 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.454 billion yuan, 3.842 billion yuan, and 4.312 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 11.2%, and 12.2% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 565 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 6.5%, 11.5%, and 12.7% [5][7]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25, 22, and 20 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. (千禾味业) [5][9] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 1.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million yuan, a decrease of 2.38% [1] - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 694 million yuan, down 2.53% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 96 million yuan, down 14.16% year-on-year, indicating pressure on demand and increased competition [1][2] - The company is facing significant growth pressure in its main products, such as soy sauce and vinegar, due to weak demand and intensified competition [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.16%, a decrease of 2.28 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased competition and promotional activities [3] - The total expenses increased, with Q2 2024 sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing year-on-year changes of +2.48, -0.80, +0.06, and +0.35 percentage points respectively [3] - The net profit margin for Q2 was 13.77%, down 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Dynamics - The company’s soy sauce and vinegar products experienced revenue declines of 3.07% and 10.17% year-on-year in Q2, respectively, despite the benefits from zero-additive products and channel expansion [2] - Regional performance varied, with Q2 revenue changes in different areas: Eastern (-7.65%), Southern (+1.35%), Central (-15.63%), Northern (+17.57%), and Western (-5.10%) [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain its high-end and health-oriented brand positioning while launching new high-quality products like Qianhe Matsutake Soy Sauce [3] - The second phase of the 600,000-ton seasoning production line project has begun trial production, with remaining capacity expected to be launched within the year [3] - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 559 million, 651 million, and 752 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%, 16%, and 15% [4][5]

千禾味业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 603027） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.68 [6][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure due to weak external demand and a reduction in scale effects, leading to a decline in profitability. However, there is an expectation for gradual improvement in operations as new products gain traction and new distribution points are developed [1][2]. - The company is focusing on product optimization and upgrading, which is anticipated to drive revenue and profit growth in the second half of 2024. The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is RMB 0.56, 0.65, and 0.74 respectively, with a reference PE of 28x for 2024 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 1.59 billion, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 250 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% but a decline in net profit by 2.4% [1]. - For Q2 2024, revenue was RMB 690 million, with a net profit of RMB 100 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% in revenue and 14.2% in net profit [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 35.2%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced scale effects despite lower raw material costs [3]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is strategically upgrading its product line, focusing on low-additive products priced around RMB 7 and mid-range products around RMB 10, which has led to short-term revenue pressure due to inventory management of older products [2]. - The company has seen a net increase of 204 distributors by the end of Q2 2024, indicating ongoing efforts in recruitment and network expansion [2]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 3.422 billion, with a net profit of RMB 580 million, reflecting a growth rate of 6.71% and 9.42% respectively [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 26.10 in 2023 to 23.85 in 2024, indicating a more favorable valuation outlook [5].