公司报告 | 季报点评 业绩增长稳健，利润率有所承压 业绩： 2024Q3 公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 26.37/6.24/6.28 亿元（同比+10.11%/+6.61%/+7.33%）。 中高档产品结构仍稳定，特 A+类增速居前。24Q3 公司白酒业务收入 26. 26 亿元（同比+10.29%），其中：特 A+类（出厂价 300 元+产品）/特 A 类 （出厂价 100-300 元产品）/A 类/B 类/C+D 类/其他分别实现收入 18.13/6. 46/1.09/0.41/0.17/0.007 亿元（同比+11.70%/+9.55%/+7.74%/-11.86%/-17.8 0%/-29.13%）。 省内区域增速略有放缓，省外渠道质量持续提升。 ① 市场方面，24Q3 省内/外收入分别为 24.23/2.04 亿元（同比+9.32%/+2 3.04%），其中省内淮安大区/南京大区/苏南大区/苏中大区/盐城大区/ 淮海大区收入分别为 6.60/4.99/3.87/3.55/2.88/2.32 亿元（同比+10.10% /+8.12%/+8.24%/+12.89%/+9.03%/+ ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 今世缘（603369） 2024 年三季报点评：理性降速，砥砺奋进 2024 年 11 月 03 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7888 | 10100 | 11833 | 13456 | 15623 | | 同比（ % ） | 23.09 | 28.05 | 17.15 | 13.71 | 16.11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2503 | 3136 | 3607 | 4129 | 4896 | | 同比（ % ） | 23.34 | 25.30 | 15.03 | 14.45 | 18.59 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.29 | 3.90 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 今世缘（603369） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][7] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 9.942 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.086 billion yuan, up 17.08% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.637 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 624 million yuan, up 6.61% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is actively adjusting its delivery and payment rhythm to alleviate pressure on distributors and maintain a healthy channel [2] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's revenue and net profit growth rates have slowed significantly compared to previous quarters, primarily due to a challenging macro consumption environment and an increase in discount proportions [2] - The revenue from the company's premium A+ products in Q3 2024 was 1.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.70%, but the growth rate has decreased by 9.37 percentage points compared to Q2 [2] - The company has seen a slight decrease in the proportion of revenue from its home province, which now accounts for 92.23% of total revenue, while revenue from outside the province increased by 23.04% year-on-year [2] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 5.13 percentage points to 75.59% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased discount-related expenses [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.68%, down 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s cash flow from operations showed stability, with a net operating cash flow of 3.064 billion yuan, although it decreased by 16.85% year-on-year [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to continue expanding its revenue scale, with projected revenues of 11.653 billion yuan, 13.086 billion yuan, and 14.552 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5] - The projected net profits for the same years are 3.585 billion yuan, 3.963 billion yuan, and 4.391 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.86 yuan, 3.16 yuan, and 3.50 yuan [4][5]

2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 Q3 调整节奏，省内仍具增长势能 ——今世缘（603369.SH）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：今世缘发布 2024 年三季报，24 年前三季度公司实现营业总收入 99.42 亿元、同比增长 18.85%，实现归母净利润 30.86 亿元、同比增长 17.08%，其 中 Q3 单季总营收 26.37 亿元、同比增长 10.11%，归母净利润 6.24 亿元、同比 增长 6.61%，Q3 业绩表现略低于我们此前预期。 Q3 收入增幅环比降速。三季度公司收入端同比增长 10%、环比 Q2 明显降速， 鉴于外部需求环境压力较大，公司 Q3 主动放慢节奏、为渠道释压，但整体成长 性在板块内依然较优。1）分产品看，24Q3 特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类产品销售收入 分别为 18.13/6.46/1.09 亿元，同比增加 11.7%/9.55%/7.74%，国缘四开动销 相对稳健、价盘在同价位竞品中亦较为坚挺，但由于外部环境影响叠加本身基数 偏高，估计 Q3 四开收入增速有所放缓，对开收入保持相对较快增长。V 系列所 在价格带受需求承压影响较大，但由于基数较低、估计 V3 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 10 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：43.94 元 今 世 缘（603369）食品饮料 目标价：55.59 元（6 个月） 产品结构延续升级，经营韧性凸显 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现营收 99.4亿元，同比+18.9%； 归母净利润 30.9亿元，同比+17.1%。单季度来看，24Q3实现营收 26.4亿元， 同比+10.1%；归母净利润 6.2 亿元，同比+6.6%。收入基本符合市场预期，利 润略低于预期。 结构延续升级，省内精耕+省外扩张路径清晰。1、分产品看，24Q3特 A+、特 A、A 类、B 类、C+D类产品分别实现营收 18.1亿元（+11.7%）、6.5亿元（+9.6%）、 1.1 亿元（+7.7%）、0.4 亿元（-11.9%）、0.2 亿元（-17.8%）。24Q3 百元以上 中高端产品的收入占比同比提升 0.9pp 至 93.3%，增速保持领先。国缘品牌核 心单品卡位 100-300 元主流消费价位带快速放量，在竞争加剧下维持双位数逆 势增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth rate has slowed down in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a net profit increase of 6.6%. The total revenue for Q3 2024 reached 9.94 billion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.09 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is expected to focus on inventory reduction in the fourth quarter to prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival sales, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 26.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [4][5]. - The revenue from premium products (A+ and A categories) was 18.1 billion yuan and 6.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.7% and 9.6% [5][6]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2024 was 24.23 billion yuan, up 9.32% year-on-year, with the Suzhong and Huai'an regions showing faster growth rates of 12.89% and 10.10% respectively [5][6]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 5.14 percentage points to 75.6%, primarily due to increased promotional discounts during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [6][7]. - The net profit margin slightly declined by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Cash Flow and Inventory - The net operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 983 million yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow and prepayments [6][7]. - The company is experiencing high inventory levels, which may affect its sales strategies in the near term [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 11.635 billion yuan, 13.058 billion yuan, and 14.622 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.2%, and 12.0% respectively [7][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.551 billion yuan, 3.990 billion yuan, and 4.544 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 12.4%, and 3.9% respectively [7][8].

公 司 研 究 2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司点评 买入/维持 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 60.12 昨收盘:43.94 今世缘：三季度业绩符合预期，产品结构势能延续 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for outperforming the market [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.94 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.09 billion, up 17.1% year-on-year [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.64 billion, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 620 million, growing 6.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a strong regional leader with solid growth potential, supported by its clear brand positioning and product structure that aligns with consumer trends in Jiangsu province [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts net profits of 3.61 billion, 4.10 billion, and 4.41 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 15%, 14%, and 8% [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 75.6%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [5][6]. - The operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2024 was 980 million, compared to 1.18 billion in the same period last year, indicating a slower cash flow growth relative to revenue [5][6]. Product Performance - The revenue from premium products in the third quarter of 2024 was 1.81 billion, showing an 11.7% year-on-year increase, accounting for 69% of total revenue [5][6]. - The company launched a new high-end product, enhancing its brand strength and market presence [5][6]. Market Trends - The company continues to see faster growth in the provincial markets outside Jiangsu, with a 23% year-on-year increase in revenue from these regions [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the mid-to-high-end market segments and the exploration of markets outside the province [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company actively controls its delivery rhythm, with growth momentum still present despite a challenging consumption environment [4][5] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 9.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.09 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year [3] - In the third quarter of 2024, revenue was 2.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, and net profit was 620 million yuan, a 6.6% increase year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a gross margin of 75.6% in Q3 2024, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to discounts and channel rebates [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 3.64 billion, 4.08 billion, and 4.49 billion yuan respectively [5] Product and Market Performance - Revenue by product in Q3 2024 was as follows: Special A+ 1.81 billion yuan (+12%), Special A 650 million yuan (+10%), A class 110 million yuan (+8%), B class 40 million yuan (-12%), and C+D class 20 million yuan (-18%) [4] - Regional revenue growth was stronger in Suzhong and outside the province, with notable increases in Huai'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 21.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.93 billion yuan by 2026 [9] - The net profit for 2023 is reported at 3.14 billion yuan, with projections of 3.64 billion yuan for 2024 and 4.49 billion yuan for 2026 [11] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.6% in 2023, expected to decrease to 34.5% by 2026 [11]