Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a relative performance exceeding the benchmark by more than 15% over the next six months [10][25]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on single-store performance due to weak demand, leading to store closures and adjustments. However, there is an expectation of profit margin improvement driven by cost reductions in key products [2][13]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 77.1 billion, 83.3 billion, and 90.7 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 8.0%, and 8.8% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 7.3 billion, 8.8 billion, and 10.1 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting significant growth rates of 111.2%, 21.6%, and 14.5% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 72.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and a net profit of 3.44 billion yuan, up 46.63% [12][28]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 4.74% for 2023, with a gross margin of 24.77%, indicating a slight improvement in profitability metrics [13]. - For Q1 2024, the company recorded revenue of 1.695 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.04% year-on-year, while the net profit rose by 20.02% to 165 million yuan [28]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue from packaging products, franchise management, fresh goods, and other main businesses was 2.82 billion, 0.83 billion, 5.768 billion, and 0.974 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.75%, 11.38%, 6.09%, and 33.82% [1][2]. - The average revenue per store decreased by 1.56% to 371,800 yuan, reflecting the challenges faced in the retail environment [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The report highlights a decrease in the cost of key products, particularly duck necks, which has contributed to a recovery in profit margins in Q1 2024, with a gross margin of 30.03%, up 5.73 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - The company is actively working to improve store efficiency through promotional activities on platforms like Douyin [1]. Cash Flow and Valuation Metrics - Operating cash flow for 2023 was reported at 420 million yuan, with projections for 2024 reaching 1.019 billion yuan [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 36.57 in 2023 to 12.44 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook as earnings grow [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.261 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, and a net profit of 401 million yuan, up 54.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in single-store revenue, with expectations for the reform of its franchise system to enhance long-term growth potential [3][8]. - Cost pressures are easing, leading to a significant improvement in profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.37% in 2023, up 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.630 billion yuan and 1.695 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.5% and -7.0% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 24.77%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 26.90% in Q4 2023 and 30.03% in Q1 2024 [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2024 was 156 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [1]. Store Operations - The company opened a net of 874 new stores in 2023, bringing the total to 15,950, a 6% increase year-on-year, although there was a net decrease of 212 stores in the second half of the year due to a slowdown in consumer spending [7]. - The revenue from fresh products grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating that single-store revenue has stabilized [7]. Franchise System - The company is focusing on the health of its franchise system by reducing the pace of new store openings and optimizing its franchise model [8]. - The introduction of new franchisees with better backgrounds aims to enhance the overall quality of the franchise system, setting a foundation for sustainable growth [8]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards to 840 million yuan and 982 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a 14% and 24% reduction from previous estimates [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15 for 2024, 13 for 2025, and 11 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the casual snack market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 5%-15% relative to the benchmark index [2][27]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 344 million yuan, up 46.63% year-on-year [2][15]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.695 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.04% year-on-year, but a net profit of 165 million yuan, reflecting a 20.02% increase year-on-year [11][15]. - The company is focusing on optimizing single-store operations and expects gradual recovery in single-store revenue against a low base [15]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 24.77%, with a net profit margin of 4.74%, showing improvements in profitability due to declining raw material costs [11][15]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 improved to 30.03%, with a net profit margin of 9.73%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11][15]. - The company forecasts revenues of 7.708 billion yuan, 8.205 billion yuan, and 8.969 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 722 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 881 million yuan [15][16]. Market Position - The company has expanded its store count to 15,950 by the end of 2023, emphasizing quality improvements among new franchisees and proactive adjustments to underperforming stores [13][15]. - The company’s focus on enhancing sales through platforms like Douyin and group buying vouchers has been noted, despite facing revenue pressure from high base effects [11][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10][23] Core Views - The company is shifting its focus from expanding market share to optimizing store operations and franchise management, aiming for sustainable growth through targeted support systems for franchise partners [2] - Revenue growth is expected to slow down due to a decrease in store expansion speed, but continuous cost optimization is projected to enhance profitability [2] - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 76.11 billion, 80.73 billion, and 86.20 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5%, 6%, and 7% respectively [2] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is projected to be 6.84 billion, 7.93 billion, and 9.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 99%, 16%, and 14% respectively [2] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 72.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and a net profit of 3.44 billion yuan, up 46.63% year-on-year [23] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 16.95 billion yuan, down 7.04% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 20.02% to 1.65 billion yuan [23] - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 24.77%, with a gradual improvement observed in the second half of the year [23] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.10, 1.28, and 1.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [2][27]

图1：鸭脖采购价格及同比表现（单位：元/kg） 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3 / 7 备注：绝味食品盈利预测来自广发证券，紫燕食品、巴比食品和煌上煌来自 Wind 一致预测，数据截至 2024/4/30 （二）单店修复不及预期 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4 / 7 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5 / 7 郝宇新 ：资深分析师，金融学硕士，2023 年加入广发证券发展研究中心。 张晋源 ：高级研究员，管理学硕士，2023 年加入广发证券发展研究中心。 [Table_IndustryInvestDescription] 广发证券—行业投资评级说明 卖出： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现弱于大盘 10%以上。 增持： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 5%-15%。 [联系我们 Table_Address] 广发证券（香港）经纪有限公司具备香港证监会批复的就证券提供意见（4 号牌照）的牌照，接受香港证监会监管，负责本报告于中国香 港地区的分销。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6 / 7 本报告仅面向经广发证券授权使用的客户/特定合作 ...

需求承压，成本改善 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

司 原材料价格波动风险；行业竞争加剧的风险；食品安全风险 数据来源：公司公告、华福证券研究所 买入（维持评级） | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------------| | | | | | | | 基本数据 | | | 总股本 / 流通股本(百万股 ) | 619.93/619.93 | | | | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元 ) | 12,212.53 | | 每股净资产 (元) | 11.19 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 26.98 | | 一年内最高/最低价(元 ) | 42.00/17.72 | 团队成员 分析师： 刘畅(S0210523050001) lc30103@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 童杰(S0210523050002) tj30105@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、绝味食品（603517.SH）：发展回归正轨，盈 利能力和门店数量稳步齐升——2023.11.09 华福证券 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---- ...

2024 年 04 月 30 日 基本数据 2024-04-30 流通股本（百万股） 620 司 门店数量稳定增长，成本下降盈利水平回升 ▌ 门店持续增长，经营态势稳定 ▌ 盈利预测 买入(维持) 事件 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 廖望州：香港中文大学硕士，CFA，3 年食品饮料行业研究经验，覆盖啤酒、卤 味、徽酒领域。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资建议 预测个股相对同期证券市场代表性指数涨幅 | | 1 | 买入 | | > 20% | | 2 | 增持 | | 10% — 20% | | 3 | 中性 | | -10% — 10% | | 4 | | 卖出 | < -10% | 以报告日后的 12 个月内，预测个股或行业指数相对于相关证券市场主要指数 的涨跌幅为标准。 证券研究报告 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，华鑫证券研究 ...

证 2024 年 04 月 30 日 报 告 基本数据 2024-04-30 当前股价（元） 20.31 总市值（亿元） 126 总股本（百万股） 620 流通股本（百万股） 620 52 周价格范围（元） 18.16-41.3 日均成交额（百万元） 201.37 公 司 研 究 门店数量稳定增长，成本下降盈利水平回升 —绝味食品（603517.SH）公司事件点评报告 投资要点 2024 年 04 月 29 日，绝味食品发布 2023 年度及 2024 年度一 季度业绩报告。 ▌ 门店持续增长，经营态势稳定 公司发布 2023 年业绩报告，2023 年实现收入 72.61 亿元 （同比+9.64%），其中全国门店总数 15950 家（同比净增加 874 家或+5.8%）。2023 年毛利率实现 24.77%（同比0.80pct），净利润率 4.37%（同比+1.44pcts），归母净利 润 3.44 亿元（同比+48.07%），扣非归母净利润 4.01 亿元 （ 同 比 +55.88% ） 。 2023Q4 收 入 16.30 亿元（ 同 比 +8.45%），毛利率 26.90%（同比+4.41pcts），归 ...

绝味食品(603517) / 休闲食品饮料 / 公司点评 / 2024.05.01 投资评级:买入(维持) 核心观点 -54% -42% -30% -19% -7% 5% 绝味食品 沪深300 上证指数 休闲食品 分析师 李茵琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160523020001 liyq03@ctsec.com 《 年平稳收官，聚焦高质量发展》 ❖ 事件： 2023 年实现营业收入 72.61 亿元，同比+9.64%；归母净利润 3.44 亿 元，同比+46.63%。2023Q4 实现营业收入 16.30 亿元，同比+8.45%；归母净利 润-0.45 亿元，同比减少 0.58 亿元。2024Q1 实现营收 16.95 亿元，同比-7.04%， 归母净利润 1.65 亿元，同比+20.02%。 ❖ 盈利能力提高。2024Q1 净利率恢复到 9.4%。2023Q4/2023/2024Q1 实现毛利 率 26.9%/24.8%/30.0%，同比+4.4/-0.8/5.7pct，从 2023Q4 以来公司毛利率已经 出现好转，主要系原材料成本回落在报表端逐步体现。2023 年销售/管理费率 同比-2.3/-1.4pc ...