Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jinhui Liquor (603919) with a target price of 20.93, compared to the last closing price of 19.02 [1]. Core Views - Jinhui Liquor's performance meets expectations, with a continued upgrade in product structure [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.021 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.59%, and a net profit of 388 million yuan, up 18.03% year-on-year [4][8]. - The product structure has improved, with products priced above 100 yuan accounting for 70.7% of total sales, an increase of 3.3 percentage points [5]. - The company has implemented a strategy of "one county, one policy" to enhance channel coverage in provincial markets, while focusing on expanding into sample markets outside the province [5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 693 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.11%, but a slight decline in net profit to 55 million yuan, down 2.05% year-on-year [4][6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 60.92%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin at 50.13%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.280 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth, and a net profit target of 408 million yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [6][7]. Sales and Distribution - Sales through distributors, direct sales (including group purchases), and online channels reached 2.744 billion yuan, 74 million yuan, and 84 million yuan respectively, with online sales growing rapidly, particularly on platforms like JD and Douyin [5]. - The company expanded its distributor network, ending 2024 with 288 distributors in the province and 713 outside, netting an increase of 16 and 121 distributors respectively [5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates revenue growth rates of 9%, 10%, and 10%, with net profit growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 13% respectively [7][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.82 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.03 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23x, 21x, and 18x [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue growth of 18.59% year-on-year, reaching 3.021 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 388 million yuan, also up 18.03% year-on-year [4][5] - The product structure continues to optimize, with over 70% of revenue coming from products priced above 100 yuan, reflecting a shift towards higher-end offerings [5][6] - The company is actively expanding its market presence, particularly in the Gansu province and surrounding areas, with revenue from Gansu reaching 2.231 billion yuan, up 16.14% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 693 million yuan, a significant increase of 31.11% year-on-year, although net profit slightly decreased by 2.05% [4][5] - The sales gross margin was recorded at 60.92%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of other businesses [5][6] Product and Market Development - The company’s product lines, particularly those priced above 300 yuan, saw a revenue increase of 41.17%, indicating strong demand for premium products [5] - The company is focusing on market integration in Gansu and Qinghai, as well as expanding into the Shaanxi and Ningxia markets, which is expected to enhance market share [5] Future Projections - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.280 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2025, representing growth rates of 8.90% and 5.15% respectively [6][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.77 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.45 for 2024 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.021 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.59%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million yuan, also up by 18.03% [6][10] - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and marketing transformation, which are expected to drive market share growth [8][10] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 3.28 billion yuan in 2025, with a continued emphasis on high-end product sales and market penetration [10][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.021 billion yuan, with a net profit of 388 million yuan, and a cash flow from operations of 558 million yuan, up by 24% year-on-year [6][9] - The gross margin was 60.92%, while the net margin was 12.59%, showing slight declines from the previous year [9] Product and Market Analysis - The company’s sales volume reached 20.8 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 15.86%, with over 70% of revenue coming from products priced above 100 yuan [7][8] - Revenue from high-end products (above 300 yuan) grew by 41.17%, indicating a strong market demand for premium offerings [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its marketing strategies, focusing on both domestic and new markets, with revenue from provincial and non-provincial sales growing by 16.14% and 14.67% respectively [8] - The company plans to leverage smart brewing technology to improve production efficiency and product quality [10] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.405 billion, 3.762 billion, and 4.054 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 12.7%, 10.5%, and 7.7% respectively [12][14] - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 430 million, 462 million, and 503 million yuan, with growth rates of 10.7%, 7.6%, and 8.7% [12][14]

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 金徽酒（603919.SH） 2025 年 03 月 25 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 19.02 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 24.18/15.47 | | 总市值(亿元) | 96.48 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 96.48 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.07 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.07 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 42.19 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 金徽酒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《收入韧性持续，利润弹性显现—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.10.29 《二季度主动控制节奏，全年目标不 变—公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.23 《产品结构升级持续，省内竞争优势 扩大—公司信息更新报告》-2024.4.23 2024 年增速靓丽，2025 年稳中求进 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光（分析师） | 逄晓娟（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 金徽酒(603919)公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 业绩稳健，深耕增长提质 ——金徽酒 2024 年年报点评 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 事件 公司公告 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现总收入 30.21 亿元（+18.59%）， 归母净利 3.88 亿元（+18.03%），扣非归母净利 3.88 亿元（+18.29%）。 2024Q4，公司实现总收入 6.93 亿元（+31.11%），归母净利 0.55 亿元（- 2.05%），扣非归母净利 0.51 亿元（-5.83%）。每股拟派发现金红利 0.50 元， 分红率为 64.00%，考虑现金股份回购后现金分红率为 113.67%。此外，控 股股东拟增持 0.78-1.56 亿元，截至 2 月 20 日，已增持 0.45 亿元。 300 元以上产品快增 41%，100-300 元核心价位带产品同增 15% 1）300 元以上产品快速增长，占酒类收入比例接近 20%。2024 年，300 元 以上、100-300 元 ...

三大主线产品稳健增长，费效提升费用率 下降 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别 为 0.84、0.98、1.11 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.97、1.18 元）。结合可比公司，我们 认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 25 年的 31 倍市盈率，对应目标价 26.04 元，维持买 入评级。 风险提示 消费升级不及预期、费用投放超预期、未达业绩目标风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,548 | 3,021 | 3,297 | 3,649 | 3,946 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.6% | 18.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 397 | 486 | 545 | 630 | 712 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.4% | 22.5% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 货折增加拖累毛利率，全年净利率同比-0.06pcts。毛利率看，2024 年 300 元以 上/100-300 元/100 元以下产品毛利率同比-2.15/-1.36/-0.30pcts，主因公司提 升促销力度、通过赠酒&品鉴等培育消费者，货折加大冲减收入影响吨价；单 Q4 毛利率同比-8.29pcts。费用率整体稳中有降，2024 年销售费用率 19.7%/同比 -1.29pcts，管理费用率 10.1%/同比-0.72pcts；单 Q4 销售费用率 17.5%/同比 -2.36pcts，管理费用率 8.5%/同比-3.62pcts。 Q4现金流表现较好，春节回款顺畅。2024Q4公司销售收现9.32亿元/同比+27.4%， 经营性现金流量净额 2.09 亿元/同比+1.9%，截至 24 年底公司合同负债 6.38 亿 元/环比增加 1.62 亿元，预计主要系 Q4 订货会促回款、省外春节回款前置所致。 投资建议：白酒消费需求仍处于弱复苏阶段，省内结构升级仍需积极的费用投入 培育消费者，下调此前收入及净利润预测并引入 2027 年预测，预计 2025-27 年 公司 ...

三大主线产品稳健增长，费效提升费用率 下降 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别 为 0.84、0.98、1.11 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.97、1.18 元）。结合可比公司，我们 认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 25 年的 31 倍市盈率，对应目标价 26.04 元，维持买 入评级。 风险提示 消费升级不及预期、费用投放超预期、未达业绩目标风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,548 | 3,021 | 3,297 | 3,649 | 3,946 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.6% | 18.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 397 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue target for the year, with a year-on-year increase of 18.6% in revenue and 18.0% in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024. The company aims for a revenue target of 3.28 billion and a net profit of 410 million for 2025, focusing on brand building and market integration [1][5] - The company has strengthened its market share in the domestic market while developing core model markets in the external market, driving a marketing transformation [1][5] - The company reported a reasonable inventory level in the distribution channels, with stable expense ratios expected for 2025, despite short-term external market pressures and intensified industry competition [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.021 billion and a net profit of 388 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18.6% and 18.0%, respectively. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 690 million, up 31.1% year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s high-end products continued to grow significantly, with revenue from products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 41.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 60.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remained stable at 12.8% [5][10] Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance brand momentum and market penetration through user engagement and channel expansion, particularly in the Gansu region [1][5] - The number of distributors increased by 137 to a total of 1,001, with significant growth in both domestic and external markets [5][6] Financial Projections - For 2025, the company expects total revenue of 3.308 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9% and a net profit of 414 million, reflecting a 7% increase [6][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.82 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23.3 [6][10]

2025 年 03 月 24 日 业绩符合预期，产品结构优化 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-03-21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 19.02 | | 总市值（亿元） | 96 | | 总股本（百万股） | 507 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 507 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 15.59-23.55 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 85.23 | 市场表现 3、《金徽酒（603919）：业绩高质 量增长，产品结构持续优化》2024- 04-20 —金徽酒（603919.SH）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 21 日，金徽酒发布 2024 年年报。 投资要点 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 金徽酒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《金徽酒（603919）： ...