Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with the market-oriented transformation of Moutai, are stimulating incremental demand and driving up prices, leading to a valuation recovery [2]. - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Jiuye, and Jinhui Jiu [4]. Summary by Sections Market Environment - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, and policies are becoming more favorable. The liquor industry is a typical cyclical sector, with market pricing influenced by both internal demand and real estate conditions. The government has prioritized boosting domestic demand as a key task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - The real estate market is gradually bottoming out after years of adjustment, with recent government actions aimed at stabilizing market expectations and improving conditions [4]. Moutai's Market Transformation - Moutai's market-oriented reform has sparked incremental demand, with significant attention on liquor sales during the Spring Festival. Moutai has introduced various products on its iMoutai platform, leading to a surge in online purchases and stable price performance [4]. - As of January 29, Moutai's price has increased by over 1,600 RMB, with transaction prices exceeding 1,700 RMB, indicating successful price-volume strategies [4]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with liquidity improvements and expectations likely to catalyze stock prices. The report anticipates that if prices stabilize, the pressure on stock prices will lessen, and further positive signals from policies could enhance stock performance [4]. - The report includes earnings forecasts for key liquor companies, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for Moutai from 2024 to 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to decrease from 21 to 19 [5].

今日（1月29日），白酒等消费股迎来大反弹。截至收盘，贵州茅台大涨8.6%，成交额超260亿元。金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒、金徽酒等近20 股涨停。白酒板块全天成交金额超600亿。 消息面上，本周以来，多款飞天茅台价格涨幅明显，与1月26日相比，2026年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2026年飞天茅台散瓶上 涨了20元；2025年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2025年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元。 华安证券在近日的研报中也指出，以食品饮料为代表的消费行业已经历持续5年之久的罕见下跌，背后是市场共识的彻底扭转，叙事逻辑由持续上涨 期的"核心资产"转为调整期的"传统资产，导致当前多数消费细分板块及头部企业已处在历史估值5%/10%以下分位水平。当前在风格的极致分化之 下，预计2026年后续消费头部企业的下跌空间将会有限、向上弹性将会更大。 从底层逻辑上看，随着更多关注内需和消费的政策出台，机构认为，2026年初，扩内需政策进入密集落地期，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关 于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，商务部部署提振消费专项行动，从实物消费到服务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has experienced a significant rebound, with major stocks seeing substantial gains, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment and market confidence [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the white liquor and consumer stocks surged, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8.6% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 26 billion yuan [1]. - Nearly 20 stocks, including Jinzhidao Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor, reached their daily price limits [1]. - The total trading volume for the white liquor sector surpassed 60 billion yuan throughout the day [1].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing significant stock price increases, with several companies reaching their daily limit up. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shui Jing Fang, Shede Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Jiu Gui Liquor, and Jin Hui Liquor all hit the daily limit up [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is approaching the daily limit up [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai all saw stock increases exceeding 7% [1]

最新股价：14.48元 日涨幅：+10.03% 亮点：甘肃区域性白酒（核心股）企业，拥有一定的品牌历史积淀。 酒鬼酒（000799.SZ） 白酒（核心股）板块全线飘红，多股午后涨停！消费复苏预期点燃板块热情，皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、金徽 酒、水井坊、泸州老窖、金种子酒领涨，板块整理如下： 最新股价：56.85元 皇台酒业（000995.SZ） 日涨幅：+10.00% 日涨幅：+10.01% 亮点：中国西北地区优势白酒（核心股）企业，旗下拥有"金徽"、"陇南春"两大品牌。 水井坊（600779.SH） 最新股价：41.99元 日涨幅：+10.01% 亮点：主营"水井坊"系列高端白酒（核心股），是中国知名的高端白酒品牌。 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 最新股价：124.23元 日涨幅：+10.00% 亮点：中国馥郁香型白酒（核心股）创立者，产品具有"前浓、中清、后酱"的独特风格。 金徽酒（603919.SH） 最新股价：21.54元 亮点：浓香型白酒（核心股）鼻祖，"国窖1573"是中国白酒鉴赏标准级酒品。 金种子酒（600199.SH） 最新股价：10.30元 日涨幅：+10.04% 亮点：深耕安徽地区的白酒（核心 ...

随着春节的临近，飞天茅台价格近日持续上涨。 在A股市场，贵州茅台也开始发力，1月29日一路上扬，截至收盘大涨8.61%，单日涨幅创近期新高。网友纷纷表示："这是我的茅台么？""能到1400以上真 是想不到""茅台今天变成黄金股了"。 今天，A股涨幅第一 白酒板块迎来涨停潮 今天，白酒板块午后集体上攻，走出一波新行情。截至下午收盘，板块指数暴涨近10%，位列A股板块涨幅第一。个股迎来久违的涨停潮，皇台酒业、酒鬼 酒、古井贡酒、水井坊、金徽酒、五粮液、口子窖、洋河股份舍得酒业、泸州老窖、山西汾酒等十多只个股纷纷涨停。 | 白酒 | 油气开采及服务 | 贵金属 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9.68% | 8.18% | 8.04% | | 金种子酒 10.04% | 科力股份 29.99% | 晓程科技 19.52% | | 文化传媒 | 保险 | 饮料制造 | | 3.89% | 3.44% | 2.89% | | 因赛集团 20.00% | 中国平安 5.02% | 会稽山 10.00% | | V | 白酒 2810.11 9.68% | | | 涨幅榜 | 盘口 跌幅榜 | 新闻 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with the liquor ETF rising by 10.08% and the China Securities Liquor Index increasing by 9.79% on January 29, driven by macroeconomic expectations and seasonal factors related to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - 20 liquor companies saw stock price increases, with 18 reaching the daily limit, including notable gains from Kweichow Moutai (8.61% increase) and others like Jinzhongzi Liquor and Huangtai Liquor, both around 10% [1][2]. - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has been rising, surpassing 1600 yuan, indicating a market recovery signal as the product remains sold out on official platforms [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Experts attribute the price increase to a combination of Moutai's proactive price control and seasonal demand, suggesting that the liquor sector is a target for capital investment due to its cyclical nature [4]. - The overall industry is under pressure, with several companies forecasting significant declines in net profit, indicating a challenging competitive landscape and increased inventory issues [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the proactive inventory adjustments by liquor manufacturers and the stabilization of high-end liquor prices could lead to a healthier market development [5]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand, with the liquor sector seen as a value opportunity for investors, despite the need for cautious optimism regarding long-term trends [5].

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 消息面上，飞天茅台价格节前连续上涨，整箱批价突破1600元。第三方报价平台显示，1月29日，2026 年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回升到1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570元/瓶，前 几日茅台的批价还稳定在1550元/瓶左右。记者在"i茅台"平台看到，1499元的普茅连续第29天在多次秒 空后显示售罄。 1月29日，A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指窄幅震荡，上证50指数涨超1%，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指 数跌超3%。从板块来看，白酒板块午后爆发，成分股全线飘红，金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒、金 徽酒、水井坊、酒鬼酒、舍得酒业、泸州老窖等18股涨停，顺鑫农业、贵州茅台、古井贡B等涨超5%。 ...

二是最近飞天茅台市场批发价格逐步回暖。1月29日，第三方平台数据显示，53度、500ml飞天茅台酒批发价格继续上涨。其中，2025年飞天茅台原箱较 上一日上涨20元/瓶，至1620元/瓶。此外，2026年飞天茅台原箱亦较上一日上涨20元/瓶，至1610元/瓶。 三是"涨价"是最近市场的潜在主线，主要集中在大宗商品、半导体产业链上游等领域，涨价趋势向下游传导，以白酒板块为代表的大消费有望受益，成为 市场新的交易预期。 今天，A股市场横盘震荡，三大指数走势分化，消费股表现活跃，资源股延续强势。 午后，白酒股爆发，分析人士表示，白酒板块大涨，主要有三个原因：一是近期热点板块各自的交易逻辑已经充分演绎，与此同时，商业航天、存储芯片 等板块处于相对高位，市场有"高低切"的内在需求。白酒股处于周期底部，成为最贴合当前市场要求的板块。 截至收盘，上证指数涨0.16%，深证成指跌0.3%，创业板指跌0.57%。 板块方面，白酒、油气开采及服务、贵金属、文化传媒、AI应用等板块涨幅居前，光刻机、半导体、元件、储存芯片等板块调整。 个股方面，白银有色（601212）走出"8连板"，四川黄金（001337）、豫光金铅（600531 ...

来源：股市直击 1月29日消息，白酒板块午后持续走高，水井坊、舍得酒业、皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、金徽酒、泸州老窖、 金种子酒涨停，古井贡酒、山西汾酒涨超9%，贵州茅台涨超8%。消息面上，媒体报道称，受春节旺季 需求向好等因素影响，部分茅台经销商已到货的飞天茅台（53度、500ml）一月和二月配额已售罄。 ...