Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for the first three quarters of this year increased by 73% year-on-year to 14.3 billion yuan, achieving 72% and 84% of Citigroup and market's full-year forecasts respectively [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit and EBIT for the first three quarters were 14.5 billion yuan and 24.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 70% and 33% [1] - The estimated EBIT for the third quarter reached 9 billion yuan, showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% and 2% respectively, surpassing Citigroup's expectations, primarily due to higher copper production and sales [1] Future Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 19.5%, 36.6%, and 19.6% to 19.8 billion yuan, 25.2 billion yuan, and 27 billion yuan respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 13.4 HKD to 20.6 HKD, and for A-shares from 12.6 CNY to 19 CNY, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for the first three quarters of this year increased by 73% year-on-year to 14.3 billion yuan, achieving 72% and 84% of Citigroup and market's full-year forecasts respectively [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit and EBIT for the first three quarters were 14.5 billion yuan and 24.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 70% and 33% [1] - The estimated EBIT for the third quarter reached 9 billion yuan, showing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% and 2% respectively, surpassing Citigroup's expectations, primarily due to higher copper production and sales [1] Future Projections - Citigroup has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 19.5%, 36.6%, and 19.6% respectively, projecting profits of 19.8 billion yuan, 25.2 billion yuan, and 27 billion yuan [1] Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 13.4 HKD to 20.6 HKD, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from 12.6 yuan to 19 yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Market Overview - On October 27, the industrial metals sector rose by 2.27% compared to the previous trading day, with Huayu Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Top Performers in Industrial Metals - Huayu Mining (601020) closed at 28.74, up 6.52%, with a trading volume of 467,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.319 billion [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) closed at 41.53, up 6.24%, with a trading volume of 968,300 shares and a transaction value of 3.974 billion [1] - Zhi'an Technology (300328) closed at 16.77, up 4.81%, with a trading volume of 570,800 shares and a transaction value of 941 million [1] Underperformers in Industrial Metals - Minfa Aluminum (002578) closed at 3.53, down 5.11%, with a trading volume of 603,400 shares and a transaction value of 214 million [2] - Jinhui Co. (603132) closed at 13.48, down 4.26%, with a trading volume of 101,500 shares and a transaction value of 137 million [2] - Yuguang Gold Lead (600531) closed at 12.25, down 4.22%, with a trading volume of 946,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.164 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metals sector saw a net inflow of 432 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 820 million [2] - Notable net inflows from institutional investors included Jiangxi Copper with 433 million and Luoyang Jiyie with 213 million [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in stocks like Jiangxi Copper and Zinc Industry Co., indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current copper-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, indicating potential for copper price increases following a rise in gold prices. The market sentiment remains bullish due to structural supply shortages anticipated in the copper market [6][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 24, the copper futures market saw a net inflow of 3.871 billion yuan, with significant positions being built up, leading to a total capital scale of 46.059 billion yuan in copper futures, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [1][3]. - As of October 24, the domestic copper futures main contract closed at 87,660 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai spot electrolytic copper price surpassed 86,500 yuan/ton, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price approached 11,000 USD/ton [3][4]. - The copper price surge has led to strong performance in the listed companies within the non-ferrous sector, with notable increases in stock prices, such as a 99.36% rise for Tongling Nonferrous Metals and a 178.76% rise for Luoyang Molybdenum [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is entering a structural tightness cycle, with predictions of a 150,000-ton supply shortage by 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years. This is attributed to insufficient capital expenditure in global copper mining and declining ore grades [6][7]. - Demand for copper is shifting from traditional industrial uses to technology and energy sectors, driven by global energy transitions and advancements in AI, which are expected to elevate copper's strategic importance [6][7]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the second-largest globally, has faced production cuts due to safety incidents, further exacerbating supply constraints [3][7].

该行指，第三季钴销量达5,000吨，较市场预期高，对比第二季为2,200吨。此外，有效税率由第二季的 37%大幅降第三季的27%，意味期内税务支出较上季减少9亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，洛阳钼业(03993)表现胜预期，预期投资者将有正面反应，现予目 标价20.5港元及"买入"评级。洛阳钼业今年首三季归属股东净利润达143亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长 73%，已达市场全年预期的87%，以及该行预期的80%。单计第三季，净利润为56亿元，同比增长 96%，按季增长19%，较市场预期高约10亿元。 ...

该行指，第三季钴销量达5,000吨，较市场预期高，对比第二季为2,200吨。此外，有效税率由第二季的 37%大幅降第三季的27%，意味期内税务支出较上季减少9亿元。 瑞银发布研报称，洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)表现胜预期，预期投资者将有正面反应，现予目标价20.5 港元及"买入"评级。洛阳钼业今年首三季归属股东净利润达143亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长73%，已达 市场全年预期的87%，以及该行预期的80%。单计第三季，净利润为56亿元，同比增长96%，按季增长 19%，较市场预期高约10亿元。 ...

高盛发布研报称，维持对洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)的"买入"评级，目标价从10.8港元升至19港元。洛 阳钼业按中国会计准则计算第三季纯利同比增长96%至56.1亿元人民币，首三季经常性净利润为141亿 元人民币，胜预期，并相当于该行全年预测的约75%及市场预期的约82%。 因应首三季表现及该行对铜价的最新预测，该行将洛钼2025至2027年经常性盈利预测上调8%至32%， 同时将2028至2030年铜产量预测上调30%至100万吨，预期铜价上升及钴价复苏将推动洛钼2025至2026 年经常性利润年均复合增长率达38%，加上2028年实现100万吨铜产量及Cangrejos金铜项目投产的预 期，将驱动2028至2029年盈利增长。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), raising the target price from HKD 10.8 to HKD 19 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's Q3 net profit increased by 96% year-on-year to RMB 5.61 billion, with the first three quarters' recurring net profit reaching RMB 14.1 billion, exceeding expectations [1] - The recurring profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 8% to 32%, and the copper production forecast for 2028 to 2030 has been increased by 30% to 1 million tons [1] Group 2 - The expected rise in copper prices and recovery in cobalt prices will drive a compound annual growth rate of 38% in recurring profits for Luoyang Molybdenum from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The anticipated production of 1 million tons of copper by 2028 and the launch of the Cangrejos gold-copper project are expected to drive profit growth from 2028 to 2029 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(3993.HK) achieved a 96% year-on-year increase in net profit for the third quarter, exceeding expectations for the first three quarters [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for the first three quarters surpassed expectations, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its earnings forecasts for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025 to 2027 [1] - The forecast for copper production from 2028 to 2030 has been significantly increased [1] Market Drivers - The anticipated rise in copper prices and recovery in cobalt prices are expected to drive profit growth for Luoyang Molybdenum in the coming years [1] - The commencement of production at the Cangrejos gold-copper project is also expected to further enhance profitability [1] Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum and has raised the target price to HKD 19 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Luoyang Molybdenum (3993.HK) achieved a 96% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, reaching 5.61 billion RMB, with recurring net profit for the first three quarters at 14.1 billion RMB, exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit for the first three quarters is approximately 75% of Goldman Sachs' full-year forecast and about 82% of market expectations [1] - The company’s Q3 net profit growth is attributed to rising copper prices and a recovery in cobalt prices [1] Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025 to 2027 by 8% to 32% [1] - The copper production forecast for 2028 to 2030 has been increased by 30% to 1 million tons [1] Growth Drivers - The expected average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for recurring profits from 2025 to 2026 is projected to be 38% due to rising copper prices and cobalt price recovery [1] - The anticipated production of 1 million tons of copper in 2028 and the launch of the Cangrejos gold-copper project are expected to drive profit growth from 2028 to 2029 [1] Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum, raising the target price from 10.8 HKD to 19 HKD [1]