FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鐵路通信信號股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03969 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,968,801,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,968,801,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,968,801,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,968,801,000 | 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 II. 已發行股份及/或庫 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鐵路通信信號股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03969 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,968,801,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,968,801,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,968,801,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,968,801,000 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved steady growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in revenue and net profit, despite some declines in profit margins [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.621 billion yuan, up 1.34% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin was 28.76%, down 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.70%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Business Segments Performance - Revenue from various business segments in H1 2025 included: - Railways: 8.324 billion yuan (down 7.87% year-on-year) - Urban rail: 3.916 billion yuan (up 12.85% year-on-year) - Overseas: 944 million yuan (up 55.92% year-on-year) - Engineering contracting: 1.480 billion yuan (up 29.93% year-on-year) [5]. - The decline in railway revenue was attributed to differences in project construction progress, while urban rail revenue increased due to a large backlog of orders and new contracts [5]. Group 3: Order Book and Contracting - As of H1 2025, the company had an order book of 117.563 billion yuan, with new contracts signed totaling 17.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.44% [6]. - New contracts in various sectors included: - Railways: 1.114 billion yuan (up 12.64% year-on-year) - Urban rail: 377.4 million yuan (up 26.51% year-on-year) - Overseas: 187.5 million yuan (down 47.16% year-on-year) - Engineering contracting: 74.8 million yuan (down 83.74% year-on-year) [6]. - The company secured contracts worth 1.480 billion yuan for high-speed rail renovation projects, a significant increase of 74.86% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Low-altitude Economy Development - The company is actively developing the low-altitude economy, with operations in 34 cities and 49 service scenarios, primarily focusing on drone inspection services [8]. - In H1 2025, new contracts in the low-altitude sector amounted to 30 million yuan, with plans to enhance core product development and expand into government services [8].

Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of China Petroleum plans to transfer 540 million A-shares (0.30% of total shares) to China Mobile Group, which may benefit from digital transformation cooperation [5] - Solar products experienced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a revenue drop of 16.84% year-on-year to 2.697 billion yuan in H1 2025, with net profit down 16.89% to 677 million yuan [6] - Nepean Mining's revenue fell by 34.0% year-on-year to 410 million yuan in H1 2025, with net profit down 79.9% to 17 million yuan [7] Group 2 - China Communications' revenue increased by 2.91% year-on-year to 14.665 billion yuan in H1 2025, with net profit up 1.34% to 1.621 billion yuan, driven by new contracts in rail and urban rail sectors [8] - Top Group's total revenue rose by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.94 billion yuan in H1 2025, while net profit decreased by 11.1% to 1.30 billion yuan [9] - Weizhi Xiang reported a revenue increase of 4.70% year-on-year to 343 million yuan in H1 2025, but net profit fell by 24.46% to 32 million yuan [10] - Tongrentang's revenue remained stable at 9.769 billion yuan in H1 2025, with net profit down 7.39% to 945 million yuan, primarily due to rising costs [11]

Market Overview - The rail transit equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.52% on September 3, with Xianghe Industrial leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Bidetech (605298) saw an increase of 4.15% in its closing price at 34.89, with a trading volume of 82,800 shares and a transaction value of 287 million [1] - Xianghe Industrial (603500) reported a significant decline of 7.56%, closing at 10.76, with a trading volume of 326,800 shares and a transaction value of 357 million [2] - Other notable performers included Gongda High-Tech (688367) with a 1.81% increase and a closing price of 18.60, and Kani Electromechanical (603111) with a 1.17% increase, closing at 7.77 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The rail transit equipment sector experienced a net outflow of 157 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 45.79 million [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Xianghe Industrial, with a net inflow of 28.57 million from institutional investors, despite a net outflow of 50.42 million from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Jiaokong Technology (688015) and Times New Materials (600458) also showed mixed capital flows, with varying degrees of net inflows and outflows from different investor categories [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the gradual conversion of existing orders and a focus on rail transit and low-altitude sectors [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.62 billion yuan, up 1.34% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s Q2 performance showed revenue of 7.996 billion yuan, a 2.71% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.059 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.46% increase [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 28.76%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin at 12.70%, down 0.35 percentage points [3]. Business Segments - In H1 2025, revenue from the railway business was 8.324 billion yuan, down 7.87% year-on-year, while urban rail business revenue was 3.916 billion yuan, up 12.85% [2]. - The engineering contracting and other businesses generated revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, an increase of 29.93% year-on-year, and overseas business revenue reached 944 million yuan, up 55.92% [2]. - New orders signed in H1 2025 totaled 17.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.44% year-on-year, with significant growth in railway and urban rail orders [2]. Low-altitude Business Development - The company is establishing a low-altitude industry framework, focusing on "low-altitude airspace control" and related technologies, with successful deployments in multiple cities [4]. - The company has partnered with state-owned enterprises to promote typical application scenarios and has expanded its services to 49 locations across 34 cities [4]. - The low-altitude business is expected to become a new growth point for the company as the low-altitude economy develops rapidly [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Expected High Dividend Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to construct a portfolio with high expected dividend yield by leveraging historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term factors like reversal and profitability[5][10][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Yield Calculation**: - Phase 1: Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution announcements - Phase 2: Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[5][10] 2. **Screening Process**: - Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents[15] - Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative return)[15] - Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit YoY growth < 0)[15] 3. **Final Selection**: - Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield - Select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield and construct an equally weighted portfolio[11] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong historical performance with significant excess returns and controlled drawdowns, making it a robust strategy for high-dividend stock selection[13] Model Backtesting Results - **Expected High Dividend Portfolio**: - Cumulative Return: 358.90% - Cumulative Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Total Return Index): 107.44% - Annualized Excess Return: 8.87% - Maximum Rolling 1-Year Drawdown of Excess Return: 12.26% - Monthly Excess Win Rate: 60.19%[13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future dividend yield by combining historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term influencing factors[5][16] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate historical dividend yield based on profit distribution announcements[5][10] 2. Predict future dividend yield using fundamental indicators and historical dividend patterns[5][10] 3. Incorporate two short-term factors: - **Reversal Factor**: Accounts for short-term price reversals - **Profitability Factor**: Reflects the company's earnings performance[5][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high-dividend stocks and serves as a reliable input for portfolio construction[16] - **Factor Name**: Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines multiple single-factor signals to assess the market's outlook on dividend stocks[25][28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate five single-factor signals: - **Inflation**: PPI YoY (High/Low) - **Liquidity**: M2 YoY (High/Low) - **M1-M2 Gap**: Scissors Difference (High/Low) - **Interest Rate**: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (High/Low) - **Market Sentiment**: Dividend Stock Turnover Ratio (Up/Down)[28] 2. Assign binary signals (1 for bullish, 0 for bearish) to each factor 3. Aggregate the signals into a composite indicator[28] **Factor Evaluation**: The framework provides a systematic approach to timing dividend stock investments, though the September 2025 signal suggests a cautious stance[25][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Dividend Yield Factor**: - August 2025 Portfolio Average Return: 5.69% - Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Index): -4.80% - Excess Return (vs CSI Dividend Index): +4.70%[5][16] - **Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal)**: - Latest Signal (September 2025): 0 (Neutral)[25][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 14.665 billion yuan, up 2.91% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.621 billion yuan, up 1.34% year-on-year [2] - The company is accelerating its focus on core businesses while exiting low-margin engineering contracting [5] - The overseas business has become a significant growth driver, with revenue increasing by 55.92% year-on-year [2][5] Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the railway sector generated revenue of 8.324 billion yuan, down 7.87% year-on-year, while the urban rail sector saw revenue of 3.916 billion yuan, up 12.85% year-on-year [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 28.76%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 12.70%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [3] Order Growth and Cash Flow - The company signed new contracts totaling 17.568 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 16.44% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in overseas and engineering contracting [4] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -4.405 billion yuan, compared to 2.973 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a narrowing of cash outflow in core business activities [4] Strategic Focus - The company is actively exiting the engineering contracting business, with new contracts in this area dropping significantly [5] - The low-altitude economy business is expected to create a new growth curve, with new contracts signed amounting to 30 million yuan in H1 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its semi-annual performance for 2Q25, showing revenue of 7.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.059 billion yuan, up 6.46%, meeting market expectations [1]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2Q25 was 30.3%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - Operating cash flow turned negative at -409 million yuan, down from 890 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to a net decrease of 1.938 billion yuan in customer and interbank deposits [2]. Segment Analysis - In 1H25, revenue from the railway sector was 8.324 billion yuan, down 7.87% year-on-year, affected by differences in project construction progress, with a gross margin of 31.32%, up 1.28 percentage points [3]. - The urban rail sector generated 3.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%, with a gross margin of 31.95%, down 1.01 percentage points [3]. - The overseas sector saw revenue of 944 million yuan, a significant increase of 55.92%, attributed to ongoing projects like the Guinea-Massi railway, with a gross margin of 21.24%, down 12.36 percentage points [3]. - New contracts signed in 1H25 totaled 17.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.44% year-on-year, with the railway sector contributing 11.14 billion yuan, up 12.64%, and the urban rail sector 3.774 billion yuan, up 26.51% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the contraction in engineering business, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7.9% and 11.4% to 3.519 billion yuan and 3.639 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The current A-share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 times for 2025 and 16.4 times for 2026, while the H-share price corresponds to 9.7 times and 9.2 times for the same years [4]. - The A-share target price is set at 6.60 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.2% from the current price, while the H-share target price is 3.60 HKD, with a 3% upside potential [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company focuses on the dual tracks of rail transit and low-altitude economy, consolidating and expanding its advantages in the full industry chain of rail transit communication signal engineering design, train control system equipment, and engineering technical services. It is also cultivating the low-altitude airspace management, drone manufacturing, and service operation industries, accelerating the construction of a "three industries and one state" industrial pattern in the low-altitude economy. The rail transit business is experiencing upward momentum, and the low-altitude sector is expected to become a second growth curve [2][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 14.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.62 billion yuan, up 1.34% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%. The net profit for Q2 was 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89% [6][9]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows that the railway sector generated 8.32 billion yuan, down 7.87% year-on-year, primarily due to differences in project construction progress. The urban rail sector generated 3.92 billion yuan, up 12.85% year-on-year, supported by a substantial backlog of orders and new contract signings. The overseas sector generated 944 million yuan, up 55.92% year-on-year, due to ongoing progress in overseas projects such as the Guinea Masisi Railway. The engineering general contracting and other sectors generated 1.48 billion yuan, up 29.93% year-on-year, due to increased performance progress of previously contracted projects [6][11]. Order Status - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to 117.56 billion yuan, with sufficient orders to support future deliveries. The company’s inventory was 3.83 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, while contract assets were 33 billion yuan, with a slight increase quarter-on-quarter. Contract liabilities exceeded 10 billion yuan [11][12]. Growth Opportunities - The company is actively developing the domestic low-altitude economy market, having completed the deployment of 15 platforms in cities such as Qingdao and Xiong'an. Collaborations with various partners are underway to enhance low-altitude communication solutions and applications in emergency rescue and logistics operations [11][12]. Future Profitability - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 3.91 billion yuan and 4.46 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9 and 13.0 times [11][12].