开源证券股份有限公司齐东,胡耀文,杜致远近期对万科A进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司信息更新报 告：销售均价有所提升，股东持续借款提供支持》，给予万科A中性评级。 万科A(000002) 销售规模下降幅度较大，股东持续借款提供支持，下调至"中性"评级2025年6月12日，万科发布公告称， 公司通过集中竞价交易方式已完成所有A股库存的出售，出售股份数量为7295.6万股，占公司总股本的比 例为0.61%，出售所得资金总额为4.79亿元，成交均价为6.57元/股。6月6日，公司发布公告称，第一大股 深铁集拟向公司提不超过30亿元借款，借款利率为2.34%，此次借款系公司年内第五次获得深铁集团借 款。公司5月及1-5月销售规模有所收缩，销售单价有所提升。公司积极借助大宗交易、REITs发行、金融 支持政策等化解经营压力。惟其艰难，方显勇毅，我们期待万科能够安全穿越周期，构筑房企发展新模 式，我们下调2025-2026并新增2027年盈利预测，预计2025-2027年公司归母净利润分别为-73.22、5.57、 13.14亿元(原值-19.92、17.51亿元)，EPS分别为-0.61、0.05、0.11元，当前股价对 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, which has been downgraded from a previous rating [5]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in sales scale, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.18% in May 2025 and a cumulative decline of 44.19% for the first five months of 2025. Despite this, the average sales price has increased by 17.32% year-on-year in May 2025 [6][10]. - The company continues to receive financial support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, which has provided multiple loans totaling 148.52 billion yuan at a rate of 2.34% [7][18]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting a net profit of -7.32 billion yuan in 2025, 557 million yuan in 2026, and 1.314 billion yuan in 2027 [5][8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 312.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -7.32 billion yuan, with an EPS of -0.61 yuan [8][22]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be -2.6% [22]. - The company's total assets are estimated to be 1,331.94 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 1,001.22 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 75.2% [21][22]. Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 14.19 billion yuan, with a sales area of 970,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 48.16% in sales area [6][10]. - The cumulative sales amount for the first five months of 2025 was 57.04 billion yuan, with a sales area of 4.245 million square meters, both showing significant declines compared to the previous year [10][13]. Shareholder Support - The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided continuous financial support through loans, with the latest loan of up to 30 billion yuan announced on June 6, 2025 [7][18]. - The total amount of loans from Shenzhen Metro Group to the company has reached 148.52 billion yuan, indicating strong backing during challenging market conditions [7][18].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Vanke Yun City Mi Cool has significantly decreased, with recent transactions showing prices as low as 11,000 yuan per square meter, which is a 35% drop compared to its opening price ten years ago [1][12][21]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Vanke Yun City Mi Cool was once a highly sought-after property, selling out 9,440 units and generating over 5 billion yuan in sales from January 2015 to April 2018 [5][4]. - The average price during its peak was around 20,897 yuan per square meter, with some units selling for as high as 34,000 yuan per square meter [2][6]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Recent sales data indicates that the average transaction price has dropped to 16,100 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 17% decline year-over-year [12][19]. - A significant portion of recent transactions (5-8%) involved units priced below 15,000 yuan per square meter, a stark contrast to earlier prices [12][18]. Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - Rental prices have also seen a substantial decline, with average rents for 18 square meter units dropping by approximately 33% from peak levels [21][24]. - The current average rent for a 25 square meter unit is around 1,700-1,800 yuan per month, down from previous highs of 3,500 yuan [21][19]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Price Decline - The overall economic environment has worsened, leading to decreased disposable income for potential renters and buyers [24]. - An increase in rental supply in the Tianhe Smart City area has intensified competition, further driving down prices [24][26]. - The significant drop in residential property prices in the area has also contributed to the decline in both rental and sales prices for Vanke Yun City Mi Cool [26][30]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Despite the price drop, the rental yield remains attractive, with a rental yield of approximately 5.33% calculated from recent transactions [31][32]. - The current pricing of 11,000 yuan per square meter may still present a viable investment opportunity, especially in the context of low deposit interest rates [32].

(文/解红娟 编辑/张广凯） 万科强调，本次出售库存股前后，公司总股本及股本结构无变化。 值得一提的是，A股库存股是万科出于维护公司价值及股东权益在2022年回购的股份。 信息显示，万科在2022年3月30日召开第十九届董事会第十五次会议，审议通过《关于回购公司部分A 股股份的议案》，同意公司为维护公司价值及股东权益，使用自筹资金以集中竞价方式回购公司人民币 普通股（A股），回购的股份将全部用于出售。 2022年6月30日，回购A股股份的期限届满，万科以集中竞价方式共计回购公司A股72,955,992股（即A 股库存股），占目前公司总股本（含回购的股份数）的0.61%。 为了回血，万科于2025年4月29日审议通过《关于出售A股库存股的议案》，自本计划公告日起15个交 易日（即2025年5月27日）后至2025年7月2日（即披露回购结果暨股份变动公告后满三年之日），将通 过集中竞价交易方式出售A股库存股72,955,992股，占目前公司总股本（含库存股）的0.61%，出售价格 根据出售时的二级市场价格确定。 上海中原地产首席分析师卢文曦表示，万科当前所面临的现金流压力预计较为显著。其持有的股票库 存，本质上是 ...

Company Updates - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 868.5 billion for the first five months of 2025, with May sales at about RMB 183.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [1] - Vanke completed the sale of 72.96 million A-shares, raising a total of RMB 4.79 billion, with an average transaction price of RMB 6.57 per share [1] Market Developments - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves has exceeded RMB 100 billion this year, reaching RMB 1,083.48 billion as of June 10, 2025, covering 442 projects [2] - Guangzhou's real estate policy has been optimized to fully remove purchase, sale, and price restrictions, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [3] Policy Initiatives - The Central Committee and State Council have issued guidelines to increase the supply of affordable housing and support social forces in operating long-term rental housing [2] - Guangzhou plans to advance the renovation of over 150 old residential communities and update more than 9,000 old elevators in 2025, with a fixed asset investment of RMB 100 billion for urban village renovations [3]

Group 1 - Tianjin Housing Provident Fund contribution base will be adjusted starting July 1, 2025, with a minimum of 2320 yuan and a maximum of 27861 yuan [1] - Hefei city plans to auction 20 residential land plots in June, with 17 plots scheduled for June 28 [2] - Vanke has completed the sale of all A-share treasury stocks, totaling approximately 72.96 million shares, raising about 479 million yuan [3] - Yuexiu Property has secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 1.56 billion HKD, with a term of 3 years [4] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 18.35 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [5]

Group 1 - China emphasizes its responsible stance on rare earth exports and clarifies its approval process for export license applications during a press conference [2] - The Ministry of Commerce reported progress in US-China trade negotiations, highlighting a framework agreement reached to address mutual economic concerns [2] - The US Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances starting June 23, which may lead to increased consumer prices [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued measures to encourage Taiwanese enterprises to participate in the mainland financial market [5][6] - The measures include enhancing payment services for foreign personnel and facilitating cross-border trade settlements [6] Group 3 - Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission is considering optimizing the Stock Connect program and adjusting the minimum trading lot size to improve market liquidity [7] - The commission plans to lower trading costs and enhance the IPO price discovery process [7] Group 4 - Ant Group is set to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore through its subsidiaries, marking its entry into the stablecoin sector [14] - The move follows a trend of major internet companies exploring stablecoin opportunities [14] Group 5 - NIO's founder faced employee protests over unpaid wages, indicating financial distress within the company [15] - The company is experiencing significant operational challenges, including store closures and insurance issues [15] Group 6 - Vanke has completed the sale of all its A-share treasury stock, raising approximately 4.79 billion yuan [16] - The company is actively seeking funding through various channels [16] Group 7 - The insurance sector is seeing developments in long-term stock investment trials, with Xinhua Insurance planning to invest up to 15 billion yuan in a private fund [11][22] - This initiative reflects a broader trend of insurance companies increasing their equity investments [11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank held their first annual meeting, establishing a mechanism for future meetings and enhancing cooperation in information sharing and policy communication [2][2][2] - The Chinese government is promoting the integration of financial sectors across the Taiwan Strait, supporting the innovation and upgrade of the "Taiwan-funded board" to facilitate more quality Taiwanese enterprises to list in mainland China [2][2] - The Chinese government has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth export licenses, emphasizing its commitment to responsible management of exports [2][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances starting June 23, which may lead to increased consumer prices [3][3] - Xinhua Insurance plans to invest up to 15 billion yuan in a private equity fund, which has been approved by the company's board [7][7] - China Power Construction Company has won a 10.77 billion yuan EPC contract for offshore wind power projects [7][7]

Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth-related export licenses, considering the reasonable needs and concerns of various countries in the private sector [6] - Ant International plans to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong following the passage of the Stablecoin Bill, with the application to be submitted as soon as the relevant channels are opened [8] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have issued measures to support the integration and development of cross-strait relations, proposing 12 policy measures to enhance financial support [8] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is studying adjustments to the number of shares per transaction to improve the convenience of trading high-priced and fractional shares, thereby enhancing market liquidity [8] - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has launched a special action plan to boost consumption, focusing on subsidies for the replacement of old vehicles and home appliances [8] - Urumqi plans to invest 44.815 billion yuan in 82 cultural tourism projects by 2025, with a focus on attracting high-end hotel clusters and creating comprehensive cultural tourism spaces [8] Company News - Xinhua Insurance plans to invest no more than 15 billion yuan to subscribe for private equity fund shares [11] - Vanke A announced the sale of 72.96 million A-shares from June 10 to June 12 to supplement the company's liquidity [12] - ST Gongzhi's stock will be delisted as per the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's decision [13] - ST Jinyi announced the removal of other risk warnings, with trading resuming on June 16 [14] - China Power Construction announced it won a 10.77 billion yuan EPC contract for an offshore wind power project [15] - Taiji Co., Ltd. announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change in company control, leading to a stock suspension [17]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A has completed the sale of all A-share treasury stocks, which is part of a strategy to maintain company value and protect shareholder interests [1][6]. Group 1: Sale of Treasury Stocks - Vanke sold approximately 72.96 million shares, accounting for 0.61% of its total share capital, generating approximately 479 million yuan (before transaction fees) [5]. - The sale occurred between June 10 and June 12, 2025, with a highest transaction price of 6.72 yuan/share, a lowest price of 6.48 yuan/share, and an average price of 6.57 yuan/share [5]. - The treasury stocks were originally repurchased in 2022 as part of a plan approved by the board to use self-raised funds for share buybacks [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Support and Debt Management - Shenzhen Metro Group, Vanke's largest shareholder, has been providing financial support, including a loan of up to 3 billion yuan for repaying bond principal and interest [8]. - In 2023, Shenzhen Metro Group has provided multiple loans to Vanke, totaling 101 billion yuan for similar purposes [8]. - Despite facing financial pressures, Vanke has been active in the land market, acquiring land in Wuhan and Zhengzhou [8]. Group 3: Industry Context - The real estate sector has seen positive signals regarding debt restructuring, with over 10 companies, including Sunac China and Country Garden, making progress in their debt restructuring efforts since May [8].