但是我们可以发现其实州内的这些波动是比较大的主要就是最近一段时间整个市场其实消息面比较分就是比较难辨别因为每天市场上有各种各样的这种小道消息出来但是呢又没有被证伪但从现在来看很多人都看那个消息呢真真假假其实就真一半假一半吧所以说整个行情呢就会出现这种 消息来的时候可能就波动一下然后发现这个消息是假消息又回到基本面的这样一个初期的一个状态所以说最近一段时间无论是邮局也好 三百货也好可能在操作上其实都是比较难操作的但我个人觉得从现在来看无论是三百货还是邮局可能都是一个区间震荡的这样一种走势但目前来说可能还没有出现一个非常明朗的这样的一个趋势性行情出来首先我们看一下美标市场 美洲现在是处于一个弱见时和强欲期的一种撕裂中首先看一下巴西现在整个主产中马托柏罗索已经收割接近尾声总的总收割率已经接近七成所以说巴西的丰产的压力目前已经开始陆续在释放巴西大陆整个出入中转也在增加 由于港口中堵,整个巴西的升级水,上周前半段是不断的在大幅的上涨到后半段的时间,整个巴西升级水就稳定到一个这样一个区间内 那么这也就使得整个目前整个对于美东来讲它的这个供给端还是有一定的压力那么从这个它这个中美包括这个美国与其他国家的这样一个关税情况来看 ...

各位投资者,大家下午好。欢迎收听专政协会生前就业农产品组2025年第二期花农点进电话会。我是农产品研究员黄品。首先,我会和大家分享一下我们对豆菜铺价格的看法。 从二月份一直到现在,杜浦期货价格基本上维持着正当走势。菜铺期货价格主要是在3月8号中国宣布对进口加拿大菜铺加征关税之后有一个明显的跳涨,随后也陷入到了高位正当走势当中。 美国农业部在三个供需报告当中预估的是4900万吨罗萨里奥交易所最新的预估是4650万吨布宜诺塞尔利茨谷交易所的预估是4960万吨阿根廷的大豆大概已经有超过80%进入到了成熟期但是目前还没有开始收获 后期我们还需要关注收货区的天气及其最终的定产情况。除了巴西和阿根廷以外,南美另外两个主产国, 巴拉圭和乌拉圭今年的产量也相当不错也就是我们认为南美丰产这个定性的结论基本上是确定的也是因为在南美丰产的背景下所以全球2425年度的大豆期末构成较上年度是连续第三年增加较上年度增加幅度超过900万吨 这个绝对的积木库存水平仍然是历史最高,但是库存消费比是历史第三高,和历史最高和第二高相差的并不是特别大。那么由此可见,其实南美包括全球二十二五年度丰产以及大豆平衡表宽松的这个结论,大家是没有疑问的,但我 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Corn Market Analysis Industry Overview - The conference focused on the corn market in China, discussing supply and demand changes, import dynamics, and price trends [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increase in Corn Imports**: China began significantly increasing corn imports starting from the 2020-2021 crop year, with imports rising from 7.6 million tons in the 2019-2020 crop year to 29.5 million tons in the 2020-2021 crop year, indicating a substantial increase in reliance on imported corn [2][3]. 2. **Decline in Import Proportion**: By the 2023-2024 crop year, the proportion of imported corn decreased significantly to 13%, down from a range of 50% to 70% previously, with a shift in sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil [3][4]. 3. **Current Import Levels**: The total import volume is expected to stabilize around 7.2 million tons, similar to the 2019-2020 levels, with no significant drivers for exceeding import quotas [4][5]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs on Imports**: The increase in import tariffs, which rose to 50%, has rendered corn imports unprofitable, leading to a significant reduction in import activity [5][15]. 5. **Domestic Price Trends**: The overall price trend for domestic corn is expected to rise, supported by supply-demand dynamics, although this may take time to materialize [6][7]. 6. **Market Conditions**: The current market is characterized by a balance in supply and demand, with sufficient grain supply preventing significant price increases [8][9]. 7. **Storage and Inventory Levels**: High inventory levels at northern ports are contributing to a lack of confidence in price increases, with expectations that inventory will need to be reduced before prices can rise significantly [9][10]. 8. **Feed Demand**: The consumption of corn for feed is projected at 170 million tons, with deep processing demand at approximately 7.8 million tons, indicating stable demand levels [20][21]. 9. **Wheat and Corn Dynamics**: The relationship between wheat and corn prices is complex, with wheat prices expected to remain stable due to government support and the potential for wheat to substitute corn in feed [12][19]. 10. **Future Considerations**: Attention will be needed on the spring planting situation and potential changes in planting areas, which could impact future corn supply [17][18]. Other Important Insights - The analysis highlighted the importance of monitoring the overall agricultural policy environment and market conditions, as these factors will influence both corn and wheat prices moving forward [12][19]. - The discussion also touched on the implications of potential changes in import dynamics and domestic production levels, which could affect the overall corn market landscape in China [15][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the corn market, focusing on import trends, pricing dynamics, and the interplay between domestic and international factors affecting supply and demand.

4月4日，中国宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征34%关税。 且值得一提的是，这是在3月4日宣布对原产于美国部分农产品加征关税基础上的进一步加征，对鸡肉、 玉米、大豆、猪肉等多类农产品的关税累计加征比例已达49%或44%。 另据国信证券4月6日的报告显示，农产品方面，从美国进口品种占国内消费较大的品种依次为：高粱、 大豆、棉花、牛肉和玉米。 国信证券认为，对美关税加征进一步抬升玉米进口成本，后续玉米价格有望维持上涨，将从周期景气上 提振种业。而从种业基本面来看，此前种业库存压力较大，已处于周期底部。另一方面，未来海外牛肉 总进口量预计也将迎来大幅度收缩，当前相关产业链公司估值处于底部位置，基本面反转加上市场情绪 关注也有望迎来表现。 农产品相关港股： 十月稻田(09676)：十月稻田是一家主要从事主食食品生产和销售的中国公司。该公司经营三个分部。 米产品分部主要生产不同类别的预包装米产品。杂粮、豆类及其他产品分部主要生产预包装糙米、小 米、红豆及芝麻。干货及其他产品分部主要生产预包装木耳、银耳、莲子以及糠、稻壳、碎米等副产 品。该公司主要在国内市场开展业务。 中粮家佳康(01610)：中粮家佳康此前发布的20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable self-sufficiency level in agricultural production while recognizing that appropriate imports are necessary for development. It highlights the need for strong agricultural capacity to ensure China's position in international competition [1][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Strategy - The Central Committee and State Council of China have issued the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power (2024-2035)," which outlines the main goals and tasks for building an agricultural powerhouse [1]. - The plan is seen as a strategic framework for guiding agricultural and rural development, aiming to transform China from an agricultural giant to an agricultural powerhouse [1][3]. Group 2: Current Agricultural Situation - China's grain security level is high, with a projected per capita grain availability of 500 kilograms in 2024, significantly above the international safety standard of 400 kilograms [2]. - However, there is increasing pressure on agriculture due to rising consumer expectations and a growing reliance on imports for certain agricultural products, particularly soybeans and edible oils [2][3]. Group 3: Self-Sufficiency and Import Dependency - The article stresses the need for a balanced approach to self-sufficiency, with specific targets set for various animal products, such as maintaining a pork self-sufficiency rate of around 95% and beef and lamb at 85% [3]. - It warns against excessive reliance on international markets for essential food supplies, as this could lead to vulnerabilities in times of crisis [2][3]. Group 4: Agricultural Development and Innovation - The article calls for comprehensive efforts to enhance domestic agricultural production capabilities, including improving the quality, variety, and structure of agricultural products [3][4]. - It advocates for the integration of agricultural technology and innovation, as well as the establishment of a modern agricultural management system to ensure food security [4].

Group 1 - Japan is reviewing non-tariff trade barriers that are opposed by U.S. President Trump, particularly regulations on automobile and agricultural product imports [1]

截至2025年4月14日 13:17，中证大农业指数上涨0.75%，成分股绝味食品（维权）10cm涨停，盐津铺子上涨5.45%，宏达股份上涨3.42%，新诺威上涨 2.70%，海南橡胶上涨2.55%。农业ETF(516550)上涨0.62%。 流动性方面，农业ETF盘中换手4.49%，成交1179.16万元。资金流入方面，拉长时间看，农业ETF近5个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"4909.76万 元。 4月4日，国务院关税税则委员会公告，经国务院批准，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税。中美两国分别作为全球主要的农 产品进口国和出口国，中美农产品贸易将迎来新变量。 太平洋证券研报预计，本次美国关税政策变化正式落地实施后，美国农产品和食品贸易逆差将会进一步扩大。而美国农产品退出贸易所产生的市场份额一部 分将由效率不断提升的中国农业企业所占有，另一部分将由巴西、阿根廷等南美国家和乌克兰等欧洲国家所分享。 数据显示，截至2025年3月31日，中证大农业指数前十大权重股分别为东鹏饮料、温氏股份、牧原股份、伊利股份、盐湖股份、海天味业、海大集团、云天 化、藏格矿业、双汇发展，前 ...

暗盘资金一眼洞悉庄家意图>> 农产品加工板块走高，京粮控股（000505）、道道全（002852）涨停，双塔食品（002481）此前封板， 深粮控股（000019）、金健米业（600127）、中粮科技（000930）、欧福蛋业、金龙鱼（300999）等跟 涨。 ...

期货热点追踪 美国农产品周线上涨后集体下跌，大豆压榨增加VS出口疲软，美豆后市的决定因素是…… 相关链接 ...

美玉米再创新高，美大豆价格走势平稳，涨势背后藏着哪些"隐形推手"？农产品牛市或要全面觉醒？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...