2025年以来，中国重卡行业迎来多重利好共振，景气度显著回升的态势已现端倪。这一趋势既得益于制造业和建筑业 的协同复苏，也受益于政策红利释放与产业技术变革的双重驱动。 从宏观环境看，制造业PMI连续两月站上荣枯线，1-2月均值达49.65%，总体好于2024年，其中装备制造业PMI普遍突 破53%高位，显示工业生产动能强劲。与之形成呼应的是，建筑业PMI在节后快速回升至52.7%，土木工程指数更突破 60%关口，基建项目复工节奏明显加快。这种制造业提质增效与基建投资发力的组合，直接激活了物流运输与工程机 械两大重卡需求核心场景。 市场数据也印证了行业拐点的确立，2025年2月我国重卡批售量达8万辆，同比大幅增长34%，环比上升11%，创近四 年同期次高水平。 当前，重卡行业正站在"油车换新+新能源替代+海外扩容"的新周期起点。随着物流需求回暖、技术迭代加速与政策红 利延续，产业链相关企业有望在供需共振下打开百万级增量空间，向高质量发展阶段加速迈进。那么聚焦到公司上， 有哪些企业已经做好准备？成为资本市场关注的重点。 正值潍柴动力发布其2024年财报，提供了不错的观察样本。头部企业代表行业先进的生产力，往往也是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power [6] Core Views - Weichai Power achieved a revenue of 215.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.40 billion yuan, up 26.51% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is advancing six strategic layouts to support long-term development, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 12.76 billion, 14.47 billion, and 15.40 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.14X, 9.83X, and 9.24X [2][4] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 55% in 2024, with an average dividend payout ratio of 60% anticipated for 2025, leading to a dividend yield of approximately 5.4% based on current market capitalization [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Weichai Power reported revenue of 53.74 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.64% [2][4] - The net profit for Q4 was 3.00 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.46% and a year-on-year increase of 20.21% [2][4] - The gross margin for Q4 was 24.15%, up 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on six strategic directions, including adjusting product, business, and market structures, accelerating the transition to new energy and digital intelligence, and expanding into high-end markets [2][4] - The demand for high-end large-bore products is expected to increase, particularly in sectors such as data centers and mining [2] Market Outlook - The heavy truck industry is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, supported by policies encouraging vehicle replacements [2][4] - The report highlights the potential for continued high growth in various business segments, including high-margin products and agricultural equipment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Weichai Power, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's 4Q24 earnings exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 537 billion yuan, maintaining a stable performance compared to the previous quarter and showing a 9% increase year-on-year. The gross margin reached 24.2%, close to historical highs, attributed to product structure optimization and ongoing cost reductions [2][4][8]. - The company reported a total revenue of 215.7 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.4 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [2][4][8]. - The report projects optimistic growth for 2025, with expected net profits of 12.7 billion yuan, representing an 11.3% increase, and a target price of 21.8 yuan for A-shares and 23.4 HKD for H-shares [2][4][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 215.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8% for 2025, 7.2% for 2026, and 3.7% for 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11.4 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 12.7 billion yuan in 2025, 14.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.2 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 26.5%, 11.3%, 12.7%, and 5.9% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.31 yuan in 2024 to 1.74 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 12 in 2024 to 9 in 2027 [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Weichai Power declared a total dividend of 6.27 billion yuan for the year, with a payout ratio of 55%, corresponding to a dividend yield of over 5% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in 2024, with revenue of 215.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.4 billion yuan, up 26.5% year-on-year, indicating strong profitability and effective cost management [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.47 yuan per share, with a total cash dividend amounting to 6.27 billion yuan, resulting in a high dividend payout ratio of 55% [1]. - The company's gross profit margin improved significantly, with the overall gross margin rising by 1.3 percentage points to 22.4%, driven by product structure optimization and cost control measures [3]. - The operating net profit of the parent company reached 8.27 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 25.7% year-on-year, contributing positively to the overall group performance [3]. Group 2: Business Segment Performance - The engine segment achieved sales of 734,000 units, with heavy-duty truck engines maintaining a market share of 38.7% and natural gas heavy-duty engines leading the market with a 59.6% share [2]. - The company’s heavy-duty truck sales reached 118,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with significant growth in the export market, which saw a 15.2% increase [2]. - The data center product segment experienced a remarkable growth of 148% year-on-year, with nearly 400 units shipped [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Policy Impact - The new policy for scrapping and updating old operating trucks is expected to stimulate demand for natural gas heavy-duty trucks, with the market penetration rate anticipated to increase significantly [4]. - The company holds a leading position in the natural gas heavy-duty engine market with nearly 60% market share, positioning it well to benefit from industry growth [4]. - The demand for high-end diesel generator sets is expected to grow rapidly due to accelerated data center construction, providing further market opportunities for the company [4]. Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 240.66 billion yuan, 260.94 billion yuan, and 275.17 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to reach 13.06 billion yuan, 14.79 billion yuan, and 15.91 billion yuan respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 215.69 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.40 billion RMB, up 26.51% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 53.74 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.64% [2]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with significant growth in agricultural equipment and overseas subsidiaries, contributing to improved profitability [3]. - The expansion of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to boost domestic demand for heavy trucks, particularly for natural gas engines [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 215.69 billion RMB and a net profit of 11.40 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 26.51% [5]. - The Q4 2024 net profit reached 3.00 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.46% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.15%, and the net margin was 7.32%, indicating strong profitability [2]. Business Development - The company is diversifying its business, with engine, vehicle, smart logistics, and agricultural equipment sectors all showing stable growth [3]. - The agricultural equipment segment, particularly the subsidiary Weichai Lovol, reported a revenue of 17.39 billion RMB, up 18.38% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 231.11 billion RMB, 241.61 billion RMB, and 248.86 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 12.75 billion RMB, 14.24 billion RMB, and 15.50 billion RMB [4][5]. - The report anticipates a continued improvement in profitability driven by cost reduction and product structure enhancement [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 15.76 RMB on March 27, 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 215.69 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.40 billion RMB, up 26.51% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 3.00 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a 19.46% increase year-on-year and a 20.21% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability [2]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with significant growth in agricultural equipment and overseas subsidiaries, contributing to overall revenue growth [3]. - The expansion of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to boost domestic demand for heavy trucks, particularly those using natural gas engines [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 53.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.64% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.15%, with a net profit margin of 7.32%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2]. - The company forecasts revenues of 231.11 billion RMB, 241.61 billion RMB, and 248.86 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 12.75 billion RMB, 14.24 billion RMB, and 15.50 billion RMB [4][5]. Product and Market Development - The agricultural equipment segment reported a revenue of 17.39 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.38%, marking a historical high [3]. - The overseas subsidiary KION achieved a revenue of 11.5 billion EUR in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.61%, also a historical high [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic engine sector, focusing on extending its product line and enhancing core competitiveness [4]. Investment Outlook - The report anticipates a continued recovery in domestic demand for heavy trucks, driven by the expanded subsidy policy for replacing old vehicles [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.46 RMB, 1.63 RMB, and 1.78 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - Weichai Power's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 215.69 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%. The net profit is expected to reach 11.403 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 26.5% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with sales revenue estimated between 226.5 billion and 237.3 billion RMB, representing a growth of approximately 5-10% [7][8]. - The report highlights strong performance in high-end power systems and logistics equipment, with significant growth in the M series high-power density engines and the Kael Group's logistics solutions [7][8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial data for Weichai Power includes: - Revenue: 213,958 million RMB in 2023, projected to grow to 235,520 million RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - Net Profit: 9,014 million RMB in 2023, expected to increase to 12,645 million RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - EPS: Expected to rise from 1.03 RMB in 2023 to 1.45 RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 22.4% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2027 [6][11]. - ROE: Projected to increase from 13.2% in 2024 to 16.2% in 2027 [6][11]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue forecast by business segment for 2024 includes: - Intelligent Logistics: 88,726 million RMB - Agricultural Equipment: 18,345 million RMB - Complete Vehicles and Key Components: 89,779 million RMB [8]. - The gross profit margin for Intelligent Logistics is expected to be 26.9% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 28.0% by 2027 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for Weichai Power at 18.84 to 21.74 RMB per share, based on a PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power reported a dual growth in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the commercial vehicle and construction machinery markets in China for 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Weichai Power achieved an operating revenue of 215.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 26.5% - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 10.5 billion yuan, up 30.3% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The core business segment, including powertrains, complete vehicles, and key components, generated 89.8 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 42% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 19.5%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The company sold 734,000 engines, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while heavy truck sales reached 118,000 units, outpacing industry growth [2]. - Weichai Power has established a diversified energy product matrix, including traditional, clean, and new energy power products [2]. Clean Energy and New Energy Initiatives - Weichai Power launched a new generation of gas engines, achieving a market share of 59.6% in the natural gas heavy truck engine segment in 2024 [3]. - The company introduced a full range of commercial vehicle and construction machinery power batteries, with a cycle life improvement of over 60% and a weight reduction of 5% compared to competitors, expected to drive future growth [3]. International Operations - Weichai Power's subsidiary, KION Group in Germany, achieved a record revenue of 11.5 billion euros and a net profit of 370 million euros, up 17.5% year-on-year [3]. - KION Group focuses on smart innovation and has established an automation solutions excellence center to enhance warehouse management efficiency [4]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck and construction machinery markets are expected to recover in 2025, driven by government policies promoting the replacement of old vehicles and expanding subsidy coverage [4][5]. - Analysts predict a structural growth opportunity for the heavy truck industry, with potential sales returning to over one million units [5][6]. - Weichai Power anticipates benefits from a new round of equipment updates and policy incentives, alongside growth in overseas markets [6]. Strategic Business Transformation - Weichai Power plans to focus on five strategic business transformations: 1. Developing new energy businesses and integrating resources 2. Expanding the large-bore engine business for high-end markets 3. Strengthening overseas market presence through local manufacturing and supply chain development 4. Enhancing after-market services for a comprehensive product lifecycle solution 5. Accelerating digital transformation and integrating digital technologies into high-end products [7]. - The recovery in the heavy truck and construction machinery markets is expected to benefit Weichai Power as an upstream leader [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Weichai Power, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's net profit for 2024 is projected to grow by 27% year-on-year to RMB 11.4 billion, aligning with expectations. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a 19% year-on-year increase in net profit to RMB 3 billion, driven by reductions in selling and distribution (S&D) and research and development (R&D) expenses [1]. - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.347 per share, resulting in a record high payout ratio of 55%, up from 50% in 2023 [1]. - The target price for Weichai Power's A/H shares has been revised up to RMB 18.7/HK$18.0, reflecting improved margin assumptions for the engine segment [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 is reported at RMB 215.7 billion, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.8%. The adjusted net profit for FY24 is RMB 11.4 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 26.5% [3][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is reported at RMB 1.31, with a year-on-year growth of 25.4% [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.0 in FY23 to 11.1 in FY24, indicating a more attractive valuation [3]. Segment Performance - The engine segment reported a total sales volume of 734,000 units, remaining flat year-on-year. However, the segment profit surged by 35% year-on-year to RMB 10.3 billion, with a margin expansion to 17.5% [6]. - The heavy-duty truck (HDT) segment saw exports grow by 13% year-on-year, accounting for 50% of total HDT sales, although the overall segment profit was modest at RMB 563 million [6]. - The forklift and supply chain solution segment's profit increased by 21% year-on-year to RMB 6 billion, supported by margin improvements [6]. Future Outlook - The report identifies several catalysts for growth, including a recovery in HDT demand driven by new subsidies, strong growth in engines for data centers, and a potential re-rating of KION Group [1]. - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards by 9% and 11%, respectively, primarily due to higher margin expectations for the engine segment [1].

证券代码：000338 证券简称：潍柴动力 公告编号：2025-018 潍柴动力股份有限公司 关于控股子公司开展衍生品交易业务的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没 有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1．交易目的：为防范并降低汇率、利率波动对潍柴动力股份有限公司 （下称"公司"）出口合同预期收汇及持有的外币资金产生的不利影响， 公司控股子公司陕西重型汽车进出口有限公司（下称"陕重汽进出口"）、 潍柴雷沃智慧农业科技股份有限公司（下称"潍柴雷沃"，含合并范围内 权属公司）拟与银行类金融机构开展不超过等值3亿美元的外汇远期、外汇 期权衍生品交易业务。公司于2024年7月5日召开2024年第五次临时董事会 会议，审议通过了《审计及批准关于公司境外全资子公司WEICHAI SINGAPORE PTE. LTD.开展衍生品交易业务的议案》，同意公司境外全资 子公司WEICHAI SINGAPORE PTE. LTD.（下称"潍柴新加坡，含合并范 围内权属公司"）（以上合称"各公司"）开展不超过等值6,000万美元的 衍生品交易业务。现潍柴新加坡拟扩大与银行类金融机构衍生品 ...