[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 古井贡酒(000596)公司点评报告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 [Table_Title] Q2 业绩增 25%，年份原浆引领增长 ——古井贡酒 2024 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年中报。24H1，公司实现总营收 138.06 亿元，同比+22.07%， 归母净利 35.73 亿元，同比+28.54%，扣非归母净利 35.41 亿元，同比 +29.64%。24Q2，公司实现总营收 55.19 亿元，同比+16.79%，归母净利 15.07 亿元，同比+24.57%，扣非归母净利 14.91 亿元，同比+25.68%。 年份原浆持续引领高增，量价齐升 1 ） 分 业 务 看 ： 24H1 ， 公 司 白 酒 / 酒 店 / 其 他 业 务 分 别 实 现 收 入 134.28/0.41/3.36 亿元，同比分别+22.29%/-5.99%/+17.75%。 2）年份原浆持续保持高势能，公司白酒量价齐升。分产品看，24H1，年份 原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他白酒分别实现收入 107. ...

公 司 研 究 2024 年 09 月 03 日 公司点评 买入/上调 古井贡酒(000596) 目标价: 256.22 昨收盘:165.20 古井贡酒：业绩符合预期，产品结构持续提升 ◼ 走势比较 (50%) (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 23/9/4 23/11/1524/1/2624/4/724/6/1824/8/29 古井贡酒 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 5.29/4.09 总市值/流通(亿元) 873.25/675.67 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 298.88/156.64 相关研究报告 <<双百亿目标顺利达成，净利率稳步 上升>>--2024-04-30 <<古井贡酒：Q3 利润超预期，产品结 构持续提升>>--2023-10-30 <<古井贡酒：经营效率延续改善，业 绩弹性持续释放>>--2023-09-03 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 研究助理：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S11901240300 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 年份原浆升级势能延续，Q2 利润弹性持续释放 古井贡酒（000596） 证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 03 日 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 168.1 元 目标价格 元 【业绩】2024Q2 公司收入/归母净利润分别为 55.19/15.07 亿元（同比 +16.79%/+24.57%）。 年份原浆奠定增长基本盘，黄鹤楼低基数下贡献增长弹性。 24H1 公司酒类业务营收 134.28 亿元，同比+22.29%，其中年份原浆/古井 贡酒 / 黄鹤 楼 及其 他 分别 贡 献 营收 107.87/12.38/14.03 亿元（ 同比 +23.12%/+11.47%/+26.58%）。24H1 年份原浆占比提升 0.54pcts 至 80.33%， 年份原浆奠定增长基本盘。量价齐升推动营收增长，24H1 公司酒类销量同 比+12.75%至 7.36 万吨，吨价同比+8.46%至 18.25 万元/吨；其中年份原浆 销量同比+16.64%至 4.20 万吨，吨价同比+5.56%至 25.65 万元/吨，年份原 浆量增为主，同时吨价稳步提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue of 13.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.573 billion yuan, up 28.54% year-on-year [3] - The company is steadily expanding both domestically and internationally, with significant improvements in gross sales margin and a clear strategic path for market penetration [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong sales growth, with a focus on marketing quality and channel development, aiming for a new growth phase beyond 30 billion yuan [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company's liquor revenue increased by 22.3%, with Q1 and Q2 growth rates estimated at over 25% and around 15% respectively [3] - The revenue for Q2 2024 was 5.519 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.79% [3] - The company’s gross sales margin improved by over 2 percentage points, driven by product mix enhancement and strict cost control [3] Product and Regional Performance - The revenue from aged raw liquor increased by 23.1%, with volume and price rising by 16.6% and 5.6% respectively [3] - Sales in key regions such as North China, Central China, and South China grew by 35.1%, 21.3%, and 17.2% respectively [3] - The company is optimizing its product portfolio, focusing on high-end products while streamlining lower-priced offerings [3] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s net profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points in the first half of 2024, with a projected net profit of 5.882 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28% [2][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 15.46 for 2024, decreasing to 10.82 by 2026 [2] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its marketing efficiency and optimizing resource allocation, with a focus on maintaining brand presence while managing promotional expenses [4] - The strategic expansion into provincial and national markets is progressing well, with plans to replicate successful models in new regions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust revenue growth with a total revenue of 13.806 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.573 billion yuan, up 28.54% year-on-year [2][3] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a total revenue of 5.519 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.79% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.507 billion yuan, which is a 24.57% increase year-on-year [2] - The company continues to benefit from product structure upgrades and a solid domestic market foundation, with a strong national expansion strategy [2][3] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2024 shows that the year-on-year raw liquor revenue increased by 23.12%, while the revenue from other products like Gujingong liquor and Huanghelou grew by 11.47% and 26.58% respectively [2] - The sales gross margin for Q2 2024 was 80.5%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement due to product structure upgrades [3] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 reached 27.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from optimized gross margins [3] Forecasts and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been raised to 5.749 billion yuan and 7.076 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 8.382 billion yuan [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 10.88 yuan, 13.39 yuan, and 15.86 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 13, and 11 times [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.806 billion (up 22% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.573 billion (up 29%) for the first half of 2024 [2] - The product structure continues to optimize, with a gross margin of 80.50% (up 2.7 percentage points) and a net profit margin of 28.14% (up 1.7 percentage points) in Q2 2024 [2] - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 24.45 billion (up 21%) and a total profit of 7.95 billion (up 25.6%) for the full year 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue was 5.519 billion (up 17%) with a net profit of 1.507 billion (up 25%) [2] - The sales expenses increased to 1.36 billion (up 18%), while management expenses rose to 274 million (up 23%) [2] - The company reported a cash collection of 5.879 billion (up 13%) with a cash collection ratio of 103% [2] Product and Market Expansion - The revenue from the premium product line reached 10.78 billion (up 23%), accounting for 80% of total revenue [2] - The company expanded its market presence in North China, with revenue growth of 35% in that region [2] - The total number of distributors increased to 4,782, with significant growth in Central and North China [2] Profitability Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is set at 10.96, 13.30, and 16.19 yuan respectively [3] - The report anticipates a gross margin of 80.0% for 2024, increasing to 82.1% by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 224.8 yuan based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, achieving 13.81 billion yuan in revenue (up 22.1% year-on-year) and 3.573 billion yuan in net profit (up 28.5% year-on-year) [1]. - The white liquor business experienced growth in both volume and price, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 12.8% and 8.5% respectively in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The company is focusing on a "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, aiming to strengthen its domestic market while accelerating its expansion into international markets [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.682 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 80.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 26.7%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to previous periods [1][3].

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年中报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：172.02 元 古井贡酒（000596）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 年份原浆量价齐升，业绩弹性持续释放 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年中报，上半年实现收入 138.1 亿元，同比+22.1%，归 母净利润 35.7亿元，同比+28.5%；其中单 Q2实现收入 55.2亿元，同比+16.8%， 归母净利润 15.1 亿元，同比+24.6%，24Q2 业绩符合市场预期。 年份原浆量价齐升，省内基地市场稳固。1、24H1 外部消费疲软的背景下，公 司加强终端渠道建设，抢占宴席场景消费，深耕核心市场，多管齐下推动开瓶 率提升，主品牌年份原浆延续高增，助力上半年进度如期达成。2、分产品，24H1 年份原浆系列实现收入 107.9 亿元，同比+23.1%，其中销量、吨价分别同比 +16.6%、+5.6%；受益于古 8、古 16 的高速放量，24H1 年份原浆毛利率同比 提升 1.2个百分点至 86.3%；古井贡酒系列收入 12.4亿元，同比+11.5% ...

古井贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000596） 公司点评 结构升级持续推进 ——古井贡酒 2024Q2 点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|--------------------------| | 报告日期： | 2024-09-01 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 172.02 | | 近 12 个月最高 / | 最低（元） 293.07/156.64 | | 总股本（百万股） | 529 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 409 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 77.30 | | 总市值（亿元） | 909 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 703 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -54% -38% -21% -5% 12% 9/23 12/23 3/24 6/24 古井贡酒 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@haz ...

昨天有一些读者不理解黑神话这种单机游戏，我为什么能知道全世界其他玩家的进度，因为它不是纯单机，它玩的时候需要登陆steam、epic、wegame这 种平台来读取之前的进度，同时上传自己的游戏数据，所以平台上有所有玩家的进度统计。 这其实是一种很好的防盗版手段，以前的单机游戏可以脱网玩，盗版随便破解，所以现在单机游戏代码里写入了大量需要联网的互动，盗版就无从下手 了。 这个周末新闻不少，我帮大家捋捋有价值的信息。 1、周五彭博社传中国政府正在考虑调降存量房贷的利率，可信度高，因为有降利率的客观需求也有降利率的客观条件。受利好刺激，周五房地产板块一 度大涨7%。有网友说降存量房贷利率和地产股没关系，不是这样的，没有直接利好，但有间接利好。把视野拉高一点，降存量房贷利率对全社会都是利 好，除了银行和储户要让利。 有个相关数据，2季度个人住房贷款余额37.79万亿，同比下降2.1%，利率不降的话老百姓一有钱就提前还贷。 2、机构统计的中国百城房屋价格指数显示，8月份二手房环比下跌0.71%，同比下跌6.9%，已经连续28个月下跌。另外全国50城租金环比下跌0.2%，同比 下跌2.13%。这个是机构统计的，大概每个月 ...