Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% during the week of August 18-22 [2][3] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Index saw a gain of 1.33%, while COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 2.26%, respectively [2][3] Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices showed mixed movements: LME aluminum +0.73%, copper +0.50%, zinc +0.32%, lead +0.56%, nickel -1.45%, and tin +0.70% [2][3] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported a decrease of $3.47/ton to $-41.15/ton, while the copper rod enterprises' operating rate rose to 71.80%, up by 1.20 percentage points [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 11,000 tons, totaling 596,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in production and improved demand expectations [3] - Recommended companies in the industrial metals sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and others [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt raw material imports continue to decline, suggesting a potential price surge for cobalt, while lithium supply disruptions remain a concern [4] - Carbonate lithium prices have rebounded due to increased market activity, with expectations for a strong short-term performance [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to strengthen as domestic inventory continues to deplete, with stable price increases for cobalt sulfate [4] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Cangge Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4] Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively influenced gold prices, with the People's Bank of China continuing to increase gold reserves for nine consecutive months [5] - Silver prices are also rising due to its industrial properties and recovery dynamics [5] - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Tongguan Gold, and others, with a focus on potential opportunities if gold prices stabilize above $3,500/oz [5]

Industry Focus - The 2025 CBP Bio-Agriculture Promotion Conference will focus on the core issues of biological transformation in the agricultural sector, aiming to interpret cutting-edge trends and development directions in bio-agriculture [1] - The Chinese fertilizer export situation for 2025 is expected to show "total volume growth year-on-year, continuous optimization of structure, and emerging markets" according to a senior consultant from Beijing Guotong Big Data Co., Ltd [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a major pest and disease prevention campaign for autumn grain crops, organizing field observations in major producing provinces [1] Market Analysis - In Shandong and Chongqing, the agricultural input market is becoming more active as the autumn fertilizer preparation period begins, indicating a potential improvement in trading atmosphere [1] - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is experiencing a significant divergence between strong upstream costs and weak downstream demand, leading to a stalemate in the market [1] Company Dynamics - Xingfa Group is actively responding to national supply and price stabilization calls amid a surge in agricultural input demand during the busy season [1] - Stanley's mid-year report shows a revenue of 6.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.66%, and a net profit of 607 million yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year [1] - Fubon Technology is leading a major agricultural microbiology project in Hubei Province focused on the creation and application demonstration of efficient crop nitrogen-fixing agents [1] - Jinzhe Group ranked 31st on the innovation list of the 2025 Shandong Top 100 Private Enterprises [1] - Hubei Yihua reported a net profit of 399 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 43.92% [1] Company Announcements - Salt Lake Co. announced the termination of a $300 million subscription intention for a merger with Highfield Resources Limited after a comprehensive evaluation [2] - Aojia Ecological reported a profit of 668,700 yuan for the first half of 2025, reversing a loss from the previous year, with a revenue of 101 million yuan, up 30.56% year-on-year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [7][8]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance is expected to drive a bullish outlook for precious metals, with gold prices likely to reach new highs due to anticipated interest rate cuts and inflationary pressures [1][38]. - The copper market is supported by both macroeconomic factors and supply-side constraints, leading to a strong price outlook [2]. - Lithium prices are rebounding due to ongoing supply disruptions, while the market remains tight with a strong demand forecast [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's shift to a dovish tone has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 90% probability for a September rate cut [1]. - Gold prices are projected to rise, with optimistic scenarios suggesting silver could reach $70 per ounce if the gold-silver ratio normalizes [1]. - Key companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to strengthen due to macroeconomic support and supply disruptions, with domestic smelting capacity facing maintenance [2]. - Aluminum prices are predicted to fluctuate in the short term, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply adjustments across regions [2]. - Companies of interest include Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing a strong rebound, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 84,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.5% weekly increase [3]. - The market remains tight with a forecasted increase in demand for electric vehicles, supporting a bullish outlook for lithium [3]. - Companies to monitor include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others [3]. Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a general upward trend, with the sector index rising by 1.3% recently [19]. - Specific sub-sectors like small metals have seen significant gains, with a 10.5% increase noted [19]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels and price movements across various metals to gauge market health [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting potential price increases for various metals due to rising demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improving seasonal demand, is likely to drive up industrial metal prices [2][4]. - It identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $3.47 per ton week-on-week, indicating stable demand with downstream purchases primarily driven by necessity [2]. - Aluminum production has slightly increased due to the commissioning of replacement capacity, and companies are beginning to stockpile for the upcoming peak season [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 596,000 tons, with a weekly reduction of 11,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt supply continues to decrease, leading to expectations of a significant price increase, while lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to market dynamics [3]. - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to rise as domestic inventory continues to deplete [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to increase due to low supply and rising demand from precursor manufacturers [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's comments have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, which is likely to support gold prices [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for nine consecutive months, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [4]. - The report suggests that if gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce, it could present a significant investment opportunity [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 17, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 18, rated as "Buy" [4]. - China Nonferrous Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.77 CNY, with a PE ratio of 11, rated as "Buy" [4].

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Salt Lake Co. is 19.33 yuan, up 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a highest intraday price of 19.40 yuan and a lowest of 19.21 yuan, and a trading volume of 950 million yuan [1] - Salt Lake Co. specializes in the production and sales of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, with a production capacity of 5 million tons per year for potassium chloride and 40,000 tons per year for lithium carbonate [1] - The company is accelerating its "going out" strategy, actively seeking to acquire potassium and lithium mineral resources both domestically and internationally [1] Group 2 - On August 22, the net outflow of main funds from Salt Lake Co. was 81.7491 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 120 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1 - The company primarily produces potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, positioning itself as a leader in potassium chloride production in China with an annual capacity of 5 million tons [2] - The company plays a crucial role in ensuring the supply of potassium fertilizer, thereby supporting agricultural stability and national food security [2] - In the renewable energy sector, the company leverages its lithium resources to provide strong support for the stable development of the industry, maintaining its leading position in domestic brine lithium extraction with an established capacity of 40,000 tons per year for lithium carbonate [2] Group 2 - The company is actively pursuing a "going out" strategy to expand its acquisition of potassium and lithium mineral resources both domestically and internationally [2] - There is a focus on extending the layout in both upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, as well as enhancing the high-end segments of the value chain [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals showed fluctuations this week. For example, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, while that of some other metals like aluminum had mixed trends. The supply and demand situation in the non - ferrous metal market is complex, affected by factors such as production resumption, policy, and downstream consumption [2][45]. - The market sentiment and price trends of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors. For instance, the news of Jiangte Motor's lithium salt plant resuming production alleviated the short - term supply shortage panic in the lithium carbonate market, leading to price adjustments [45]. 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - The prices of most metals showed fluctuations in the week from August 15th to August 22nd. Copper decreased by 0.51% in futures and 0.43% in spot; aluminum decreased by 0.58% in futures but increased by 0.78% in spot; zinc decreased by 1.13% in futures and 1.11% in spot; lead decreased by 0.44% in futures and 0.30% in spot; nickel decreased by 0.96% in futures and 0.78% in spot; alumina decreased by 2.09% in futures and remained unchanged in spot; industrial silicon decreased by 0.68% in futures and 1.04% in spot; lithium carbonate decreased by 9.14% in futures and increased by 4.885% in spot; polysilicon decreased by 2.53% in futures and increased by 4.26% in spot [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - As of August 15th, SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons (5.37%). As of August 22nd, LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons. As of August 21st, COMEX copper inventory was 271,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,800 tons (1.80%). After the tariff policy, the inventories in the three exchanges tend to be stable [10][15]. 3.3 Processing Fees of Metal Ores - As of August 21st, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 38.2 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly increase of 0.2 dollars/ton, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists. As of August 15th, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 75 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly increase of 5 dollars/ton [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium - related Market - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index soared this week. As of August 22nd, the latest quote was 934 dollars/ton, up 157 dollars from August 8th, remaining at a high level this year. This week, lithium carbonate first rose and then declined, with the main 2511 contract having a weekly decline of 9.14%. Jiangte Motor's lithium salt plant resuming production will directly increase domestic lithium carbonate supply, alleviating the short - term supply shortage panic [19][20][45]. 3.5 Aluminum - related Market - For aluminum, the supply of bauxite has less disturbance, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. The alumina supply has increased production and inventory. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain a high - level operation, but the available primary aluminum in the market is limited. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to increase this week. The futures prices of alumina and Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend this week [24][27][34]. 3.6 Downstream Demand of Non - ferrous Metals - In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased year - on - year. From January to July, the new housing construction area decreased year - on - year, and the housing completion area also decreased. In June, the new photovoltaic installation volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [40][42][44]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price is volatile due to frequent news disturbances, and the position should not be too heavy. In the long term, the monthly output is still rising, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short term, alumina is in a weak volatile trend, and Shanghai aluminum is in a range - bound trend with a strategy of buying on dips. In the long term, when entering the downstream consumption peak season, if consumption recovers, Shanghai aluminum has upward momentum [45][46][49].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.15% as of the latest report [1] - The Chemical ETF has a significant portion of its holdings in large-cap stocks, including Wanhu Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Key stocks in the chemical sector, such as Hanjin Technology and Hongda Shares, have seen substantial gains, with Hanjin Technology hitting the daily limit and Hongda Shares rising over 5% [1][3] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities indicates that the chemical industry is moving towards a phase of recovery as the issue of overcapacity and excessive competition is expected to ease [3] - Debon Securities notes that the current cycle of chemical capacity expansion is nearing its end, with capital expenditure and fixed asset growth rates showing a downward trend [3] - Donghai Securities highlights that the domestic chemical industry is likely to see structural optimization, with significant cost advantages and technological advancements positioning Chinese companies to fill gaps in the global supply chain [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a sudden surge, with stocks such as Hangjin Technology hitting the daily limit, and Hongda Co. and Juhua Co. seeing significant increases of over 6% and 4% respectively, while the chemical ETF (516020) rose by 1.15% [1] - The recent "anti-involution" trend has benefited the chemical sector, attracting substantial capital inflows, with the chemical ETF (516020) seeing a net subscription of nearly 140 million yuan over the last five trading days [1][3] - As of August 21, the social security fund held 129 stocks with a total market value of 33.2 billion yuan, with the chemical sector being the largest holding at 6 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a phase of improvement as the "anti-involution" measures are implemented, alleviating issues of overcapacity and excessive competition [3][4] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a relatively low price-to-book ratio of 2.17, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" trend will be a key policy focus through 2025, leading to a more orderly competitive environment in the chemical sector and potential recovery in profitability [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4] - The ETF has shown strong performance, with significant net subscriptions indicating investor confidence in the sector's recovery [3][4] - The potential for increased dividend yields and improved cash flow in the chemical sector is highlighted, suggesting a shift from being a "cash-consuming" industry to a "cash-generating" one [4]

Group 1: Titanium Market Overview - The titanium concentrate market is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance, leading to a weak overall industry state with low purchasing willingness from downstream buyers and significant inventory accumulation [1] - The price of titanium dioxide (TiO2) is expected to be around 46%, with mainstream prices for titanium concentrate ranging from 1600 to 1700 CNY per ton [1] - The sponge titanium industry is experiencing rising inventory levels, with weak purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors, while military demand remains strong [1] Group 2: Titanium Dioxide Pricing Trends - As of the week of August 8-14, 2025, the mainstream price for sulfuric acid method rutile titanium dioxide is reported to be between 12200 and 13700 CNY per ton, with a weighted average price of 13302 CNY per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - The "floor price" for titanium dioxide has been maintained for an extended period, with expectations for demand to improve and prices to stabilize [2] Group 3: Chemical Industry Performance - The CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) has seen a strong increase of 1.59%, with notable gains in stocks such as Nuclear Titanium White (10.11%) and Boyuan Chemical (6.22%) [3] - The Chemical ETF (159870) has risen by 1.39%, with a latest price of 0.66 CNY and a net subscription of 1.1 billion units during trading [3] Group 4: Chemical ETF Composition - The CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index consists of several sub-indices, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 43.54% of the index, including Wanhu Chemical and Salt Lake Co [4]