一 、库存周期的本质 ： 供需错配的动态平衡 白酒库存周期的本质是 供给刚性与需求弹性的错配 。 供给端的长周期属性 ： 高端白酒 （ 如茅台 、五粮液 ）生产需经历制曲 、发酵 、蒸馏 、陈酿等环节 ，陈酿时间可达 3-5 年 ， 导致产能释放存在明显滞后性13 。这种 " 生产 - 库存 - 销售 " 的长链条使得企业难以快速响应市场需 求变化 ，容易积累库存压力 。例如 ，泸州老窖因 2020 年技改新增 10 万吨产能 ，半成品酒库存从 2018 年的 46.96 亿元增至 2024 年的 123 亿元 。而中低端白酒生产周期较短 （ 如五粮液系列酒基 酒仅需 81 天 ），库存周转相对灵活 ，但受价格敏感型需求波动影响更大 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 资悟堂 来源：雪球 " 白酒行业的库存周期是生产刚性 、需求弹性 、渠道博弈 、政策调控等多因素共同作用的结果 。当 前行业处于主动去库后期 ，预计 2025 年末逐步进入补库 ，但价格带分化 、集中度提升 、消费分层 等结构性变革将重塑竞争格局 。企业需通过品牌护城河 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% compared to the market index [10]. Core Insights - The March retail sales data exceeded expectations, with a total of 40,940 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, driven by the effects of the "old-for-new" policy [5]. - The restaurant sector showed strong resilience, with March dining revenue reaching 4,235 billion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [6]. - The report highlights specific investment opportunities in various segments, including high-performance liquor brands and efficient dairy producers, as well as emerging snack and beverage companies [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown mixed performance over different time frames, with a decline of 2.9% over the last month and a 5.7% increase over the last three months, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 5.6% in the last month but increased by 5.8% over the last year [1]. Retail Sales Data - In the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 124,671 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The significant growth in retail sales of optional consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, was noted, with increases of 35.1%, 29.5%, and 28.6% respectively [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends specific companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor, which are expected to show high performance due to low base effects [7]. - In the dairy sector, companies like Modern Farming and Youran Dairy are highlighted for their cost efficiency and production advantages [7]. - The snack food segment is also seen as having growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Wancheng Group and Youyou Foods, which are expected to benefit from channel expansions and new product categories [7].

按2025年4月7日收盘价涨跌 | 企业名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年度涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元) | (按涨幅排序) | 2025年初至4月7日 | | 山西汾酒 | 216.5 | -0.76% | 19.12% | | 今世象 | 51.31 | -2.30% | 13.44% | | 一得酒业 | 56.84 | -3.37% | -13.79% | | 五粮液 | 126.78 | -3.95% | -7.77% | | #酒屋热 | 73.4 | -4.36% | -9.61% | | 贵州茅台 | 1500 | -4.39% | -1.57% | | 美盛花 | 18.42 | -4.76% | -6.02% | | 沪南老窖 | 125.56 | -5.29% | 1.39% | | 迎驾贡酒 | 51.22 | -5.60% | -5.04% | | 古井贡酒 | 164.1 | -5.94% | -4.76% | | 口子箸 | 33.86 | -7.76% | -13.71% | | 水井坊 | 45.15 | -8.32% | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the liquor industry, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [4][5]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a transformation driven by instant retail, which is expected to reduce the survival space of traditional distributors and retail stores, leading to increased concentration [1][11]. - Consumer demand has reached a bottom, with structural upgrades being the main supporting logic for recovery, dependent on the activity level of the economy [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of brand proximity to consumers, with increased investment in consumer-facing marketing, although short-term profit growth may be impacted [2][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Trends - The 112th National Sugar and Wine Products Trade Fair showed a decline in traditional trading functions, with a shift towards trend forums and new product showcases [10]. - Instant retail is becoming a crucial channel for brand promotion, with significant growth in the sector, projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [12][15]. - The report notes that the liquor industry is seeing a reduction in supply, with a stable profit growth forecast for 2024, despite a slight decline in production [27][31]. Section 2: Company Strategies - Wuliangye is reforming its marketing system and adjusting its organizational structure to enhance direct sales and control over pricing [38][39]. - Water Well Square is focusing on a dual-brand strategy to cater to different market segments, with plans to launch high-end products priced above 800 yuan [42][43]. - Shede Liquor is implementing an employee stock incentive plan to align interests and drive performance, with ambitious growth targets set for the coming years [47][48]. Section 3: Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for key companies, indicating stable revenue and profit growth for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Jinhuijiu, while some mid-tier brands face profitability challenges [36][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Spring Sugar and Wine Fair was held from March 20 to March 27 in Chengdu, with a noticeable decline in attendance and an increase in promotional activities. The fair's role in brand recruitment has weakened due to the downward trend in the liquor industry, leading to slower sales for small brands and new products [2] - Despite the challenges, the Spring Sugar Fair remains a significant event in the industry, with major brands seeking to adapt through various cultural activities and product launches [2] - The industry is currently stable, with liquor merchants' attitudes improving after a low point last year. The report anticipates 2025 will be an adjustment year for the liquor industry, with the speed of channel clearing determining the timing of the industry's bottoming out [2] - Major liquor brands are focusing on practical changes and channel transformations to address declining profit margins and high inventory levels. New sales channels such as online live streaming and e-commerce are impacting traditional sales methods [2] - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the liquor industry's adjustments, emphasizing the importance of stability for development. The performance of listed companies is expected to show a general slowdown in the first half of the year, with key observations set for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair experienced lower attendance and increased promotional activities, indicating a shift in the industry's dynamics [2] - **Market Stability**: The liquor industry is stable, with merchants' attitudes improving, but 2025 is expected to be a year of adjustment [2] - **Brand Strategies**: Major brands are adapting through product launches and cultural events, while also addressing channel challenges and inventory issues [2] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests a cautious optimism for the liquor industry, with the need for stability and effective channel management being crucial for future performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the challenges faced by the liquor industry, particularly the weak consumption demand and market confidence, and the strategies employed by the company to address these issues [1][2] - The company has launched three new products: "Miaopin," "Hongtan 30," and "Neican Master Wine Fifteen Years," aiming to enhance consumer experience and adapt to changing consumption trends [1] - The company has identified key issues in its past development, such as an imperfect recruitment mechanism and insufficient customer stability, leading to high inventory levels and weak channel dynamics [1] Group 2 - The company is undergoing reforms and has achieved significant results in its BC linkage strategy, with a more than 90% year-on-year increase in bottle scanning and effective inventory reduction [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of balancing three major relationships: maintaining product quality, strengthening brand development, and prioritizing quality, efficiency, and service in its long-term strategy [2] - The company has set 2025 as a strategic milestone year, focusing on enhancing brand strength, product appeal, channel dynamics, and system support to improve marketing effectiveness [2] Group 3 - Suggestions from industry leaders include optimizing marketing strategies, enhancing core competitiveness, and strengthening cultural empowerment to elevate brand status [3] - The company has established strong core advantages through its brand gene, regional advantages, and aroma characteristics, leveraging the "China Wine Valley" for significant growth opportunities [3]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 黄兴利 成都报道 持续加码开瓶！酒鬼酒"最后一公里"攻坚战｜春糖风向 白酒行业深度调整期，湘酒龙头酒鬼酒的战略转型进程正在加速。自程军年初履新总经理以来，其推行的一系列 改革组合拳释放出战略转型的清晰信号。3月23日春糖期间，酒鬼酒于成都举办馥郁大会，新管理团队以务实作风 展开厂商深度战略对话，深度剖析了过往发展中的渠道淤积、动销阻滞等历史遗留问题，并系统对外阐释了2025 年营销战略框架，在行业复苏窗口期展现出强劲复苏动能。 央企联合打开增量"天花板" 3月25日，第112届成都春糖正式拉开帷幕。《华夏时报》记者在位于成都世纪城新国际会展中心酒类展区走访时 关注到，"中粮品牌"集中出道，酒鬼酒、长城、名庄荟等一同亮相，吸引不少观众驻足参观，其中酒鬼酒展厅 内，沉浸式还原中国酒谷的自然文化之美，以可触、可感、可听、可视的方式让观众近距离感受馥郁香的魅力。 中国食品工业协会副会长、秘书长马勇表示，随着消费升级和产业转型的深入推进，白酒行业正迎来新的发展契 机。酒鬼酒作为中国白酒行业具有代表性的优势企业，必须准确把握形势，坚定发展信心，以创新为驱动，以文 ...

中国食品工业协会副会长、秘书长马勇为酒鬼酒的发展战略，提出三点建议：一是优化营销战线，创建根据地市场；二是强化自身建设，提升核心竞争力； 三是加强文化赋能，打造品牌新高度。 酒鬼酒公司党委书记、总经理程军定义2025年为酒鬼酒战略攻坚年，打好四场关键战役，一是作风建设主动战，酒鬼酒团队坚持"不搞形式、不避问题、不 妥不等"态度转变工作作风。二是精耕细作阵地战，全员深入市场，以"扫雷行动"增加区域覆盖、开拓空白网点、提升产品动销、提升渠道信心。三是消费 者培育攻坚战，让消费者喝起来、消费氛围动起来、品牌形象活起来。四是品牌复兴持久战，以内参高端引领，酒鬼价值向上，湘泉口感培育为目标，逐步 实现品牌复兴和价值价格双回归。 酒鬼酒供销有限责任公司总经理王恒俊阐述了酒鬼酒2025年的营销规划，展现了酒鬼酒以"渠道高利润的BC联动模式"驱动，实现市场动销、终端渠道建设 和价值链重塑的决心。 值得关注的是，会上酒鬼酒三款战略新品重磅发布：52度500mL内参·大师酒十五年、52度500mL 酒鬼酒·妙品、52度500mL 酒鬼酒红坛30，三款战略新品承 载了酒鬼酒对市场的深度洞察、对消费者需求的精准把控，将为酒鬼酒带来销 ...

其中，鹏华中证酒ETF今年以来收益率1.15%，同类排名1886(总3442)，鹏华酒A今年以来收益率1.36%，同类排名1836(总3442)。 鹏华中证酒ETF、鹏华酒A基金经理为张羽翔。 简历显示，张羽翔先生:国籍中国,工学硕士。曾任招商银行软件中心(原深圳市融博技术公司)数据分析师;2011年3月加盟鹏华基金管理有限公司,历任监察稽 核部资深金融工程师、量化及衍生品投资部资深量化研究员,先后从事金融工程、量化研究等工作;现任量化及衍生品投资部基金经理。2015年09月至2020年 06月担任鹏华上证民企50ETF联接基金经理,2015年09月至2020年06月担任民企ETF基金经理,2016年06月至2018年05月担任鹏华新丝路分级基金经理,2016年 07月至2020年12月担任鹏华高铁分级基金经理,2016年09月至2022年08月担任鹏华沪深300指数(LOF)基金经理,2016年09月至2022年08月担任鹏华中证500指 数(LOF)基金经理,2016年11月至2020年07月担任鹏华新能源分级基金经理,2016年11月至2020年12月担任鹏华一带一路分级基金经理,2018年04月至20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent local fertility policies have effectively boosted consumer confidence, particularly benefiting the liquor and dairy sectors [4][5]. - The liquor sector is currently at a low valuation, presenting a high margin of safety, and is expected to benefit directly from the recovery in consumption and increased consumer spending [4]. - The dairy sector is experiencing significant growth due to new child-rearing subsidies, which are expected to lower the cost of childbirth and increase birth rates, thus driving demand for dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a monthly performance increase of 9.0%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 1.7% over the same period [2]. Investment Views - In the liquor sector, companies such as Shui Jing Fang, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Jiu are recommended based on their valuation advantages. Long-term recommendations include Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4]. - The dairy sector has seen a significant rise, with companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, and others being highlighted for their growth potential [5]. Key Company Feedback - Luzhou Laojiao's stock price is at 143.61, with an EPS forecast of 9.00 for 2023 and a PE ratio of 15.96, rated as "Buy" [10]. - Gujing Gongjiu is also rated as "Buy," with a stock price of 193.54 and an EPS forecast of 8.68 for 2023 [10]. Industry Data Trends - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of 756.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [54]. - The cumulative production of liquor in 2024 reached 4.145 million tons, showing a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [53]. - The seasoning industry has seen its market size grow from 259.5 billion in 2014 to 592.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [56].