Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the consumer price index (CPI) in December, suggesting a turning point in supply and demand dynamics. It highlights the importance of focusing on growth opportunities and the valuation flexibility of consumer goods [3][9]. - The report identifies key investment targets in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands expected to clear inventory [9]. - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from improved travel conditions, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [9]. - The report notes the ongoing recovery in the restaurant supply chain and the high growth potential of companies like Bailong Chuangyuan [15]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu and Guxi Gongjiu [9]. - It recommends beverage companies such as Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, while also highlighting low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like China Foods and Master Kong [9]. - For snacks and food raw materials, it suggests Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, and Three Squirrels as growth targets [9]. Liquor Sector Insights - As the Spring Festival approaches, the report highlights the importance of monitoring sales volume and pricing. It notes that the peak sales period is expected in February, with varying performance among brands [10]. - The report mentions that the liquor industry faced a significant production decline in 2025, with a total output of 3.549 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, marking the largest drop since 2019 [11][13]. - It anticipates that the recovery in market conditions and inventory reduction will take time, with companies likely to maintain relationships through pricing strategies [11]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report indicates that the restaurant supply chain is recovering, with the pre-prepared food sector expected to benefit from new national standards [15]. - Bailong Chuangyuan is highlighted for its strong growth, reporting a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, up 48.9% [15][16]. - The report notes that the company’s growth is driven by product optimization and increased production capacity utilization [16].

| 食品饮料《茅台市场化转型，消费触底反弹可 | | --- | | 期》2026.01.18 | | 食品饮料《渠道变革，精酿崛起》2026.01.13 | | 食品饮料《CPI 环比提速，消费回升可期》 | | 2026.01.11 | | 食品饮料《破局见成效，看多餐供》2026.01.11 | | 食品饮料《服务消费的春天》2026.01.10 | 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 白酒探底，餐供积极 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 2026 年第 4 期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 程碧升(分析师) | 021-23185685 | chengbisheng@gtht.com | S0880525040031 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Australian wine market is reshaping the Chinese imported wine market after a year and a half of absence, with a significant initial increase in imports followed by a decline in sales due to inventory issues and economic pressures [2] - The low-alcohol beverage category is rapidly growing, appealing to younger consumers, but faces challenges such as brand homogenization and declining repurchase rates [2] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift in market dynamics, with top brands competing fiercely and some companies facing their first quarterly negative growth in nearly a decade [4] - New beverage products are emerging, with brands like Xiaojin Wine and Guoli Fang successfully capturing market share through innovative approaches [5] - The industry is expected to return to rationality in 2026, focusing on consumer needs and product quality, while smaller companies may face elimination [6] Industry Environment - The Australian wine market is seeing a resurgence in China due to the removal of anti-dumping taxes, but initial sales have not met expectations, leading to inventory issues and price reductions [2] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow from 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 57 billion yuan by 2024, but faces challenges in brand differentiation and consumer loyalty [2] - The white liquor market is undergoing structural changes, with companies like Shanxi Fenjiu surpassing others in revenue, indicating a competitive landscape [4] - The introduction of innovative products is crucial for the industry's transformation, with a focus on low-alcohol and health-oriented offerings [5] - The industry is moving towards a more rational approach, emphasizing product quality and consumer experience, as it transitions from a bubble phase to a healthier growth period [6] Top Brand Dynamics - Guizhou Zhenjiu is upgrading its "Dazhen" product to enhance quality and market positioning, aiming to compete with top brands like Moutai [8] - Wuliangchun is celebrating its 30th anniversary with a marketing campaign that deepens emotional connections with consumers [9] - Xifengjiu is focusing on quality and cultural empowerment to drive its revival in the competitive white liquor market [10] - Moutai is launching a new product structure to meet diverse consumer needs and stabilize its market presence [14] - Niulanshan is evolving its product strategy to maintain its position in the mass market while enhancing emotional connections with consumers [18]

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月25日迎来 结构性回升。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8893元，较昨日上涨20元，并创下近五 日新高。市场在前期小幅盘整后，终端均价呈现阶段性修复，但核心单品走势持续分化，显示行业仍处于 结构性调整阶段。 今日市场呈现六涨四跌的分化格局。上涨产品中，精品茅台环比上涨16元一马当先，五 粮液普五八代上涨10元，均为支撑均价上行的主要动力；国窖1573上行6元/瓶；青花郎上涨4元/瓶；洋河 梦之蓝M6+与水晶剑南春均微涨1元/瓶，走势平稳。下跌产品方面，习酒君品下跌6元/瓶；青花汾20下跌5 元/瓶；飞天茅台受i茅台平台常态化供应影响，终端价格承压，环比微跌4元/瓶；古井贡古20下跌3元/瓶， 整体波动幅度收窄。 | 中国知名白酒大单品 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒 (飞天) | 1651/瓶 | -4元 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 贵州茅台酒 (精品) | 2356/瓶 | 1 ...

2025年四季度，"科技牛"继续担纲行情主线，在此期间，"新旧消费"集体表现不振。以泡泡玛特为 代表的新消费板块在上半年的异军突起后趋于沉寂，而以白酒为代表的传统消费的行情走软则贯穿 了全年。 基金经理对不同个股的重仓操作也走出了分化。一方面，对于已经积累一定涨幅的泡泡玛特，2025年四季度内 基金整体呈减持态势，而对于毛戈平、蜜雪集团、布鲁可等个股选择增持；另一方面，在白酒股拥挤度逐渐下 降的季度里，基金对五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖等个股选择减持，却在四季度内对贵州茅台增持了超20万 股。 "新消费"去年四季度走势不振 去年四季度内，港股市场中多只新消费个股表现一般，未能延续上半年昂扬的势头。 其中，泡泡玛特下跌29.65%，接近三成，毛戈平下跌21.22%，老铺黄金下跌11.79%，蜜雪集团震荡涨超5%， 其余个股在一众科技股中也较为逊色。 基金持仓方面，作为颇具代表性的个股，泡泡玛特在去年四季度内依旧被123只基金纳入重仓股名单，并名列 包括东方红启恒三年持有、交银产业臻选在内的20余只基金的头号重仓股，公募基金对该股重仓持股数量约为 3758.7万股，单季度被减持875.91万股。 增减仓方向上，四季 ...

人民财讯1月24日电，针对"白酒行业上行周期拐点何时到来？"的提问，五粮液（000858）在互动平台 表示："我们认为伴随宏观经济持续回升向好、消费需求持续回暖、各类产业支持政策持续加码，行业 将逐渐步入修复期。" ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月24日迎来 小幅回升。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8873元，较昨日上涨10元。市场价格在 连续调整后，出现暂时修复迹象，但整体仍以结构性波动为主，行业短期运行态势保持谨慎。 今日白酒 市场呈现结构性分化走势，十大单品中五涨四跌一平，整体均价保持相对平稳。上涨产品中，青花郎领 涨，环比上涨10元/瓶；习酒君品紧随其后，上涨8元/瓶；精品茅台价格上行7元/瓶，终端流通表现相对稳 健；青花汾20与古井贡古20分别小幅上涨2元/瓶、1元/瓶。下跌产品中，五粮液普五八代跌幅居前，环比 下跌9元/瓶；国窖1573价格回落6 元/瓶；飞天茅台环比小幅下探2元/瓶，主要受i茅台平台平价货源持续供 应影响，终端报价承压；水晶剑南春微跌1元/瓶。洋河梦之蓝M6+终端零售均价为578元，与昨日持平。 数据来源：全国各大区合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于 酒企指定经销商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等 原始数据： 过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端零售价 | 中国知名白酒大单品 ﺼ | 市场真实成交终端价 ...

证券日报网讯1月23日，五粮液（000858）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年报数据还在统计 过程中。 ...