公司发布25 年半年报， 25Q2 单季度实现收入/归母净利润158.3 亿元/46.3 亿元，同比+0.1%/-7.6%。单 Q2 收入仍保持不下滑，利润增速转负，符合此前预期。H1 销售以价换量，前五大经销商占比大幅提升 至60%。毛利承压费用投入加大，盈利能力有所下降。公司开启调整，关注双节压力测试。 Q2 利润增速转负符合预期，现金流良性。公司25H1 实现收入/归母净利润527.7 亿元/194.9 亿元，同比 +4.2%/+2.3%，25Q2 单季度实现收入/归母净利润158.3 亿元/46.3 亿元，同比+0.1%/-7.6%。单Q2 收入仍 保持不下滑，利润下滑，符合此前预期。25Q2 销售收现312.3 亿元（yoy+12.0%），经营净现金流152.9 亿元（yoy+18.4%），期末合同负债余额为100.8 亿元（yoy+23.5%，环比24 年末降低16.1 亿元）。 毛利承压费用投入加大，盈利能力有所下降。25Q2 公司毛利率水平74.7%（yoy-0.3pct），主要系五粮 液及系列酒产品价格下行所致，25Q2 公司主营税金率/ 销售费率/ 管理费率分别为15.5%/18.9%/4 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the white liquor industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The current moment is seen as a potential starting point for absolute returns in the white liquor sector, considering the cyclical learning effects [4] - The white liquor industry has returned to cyclical characteristics, with fund holdings dropping to levels seen in 2017, and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from a peak of 11% in 2019 to 3.2% [4][13] - The valuation of the white liquor sector has declined by 72% over the past four years, indicating a slow and steady adjustment process, unlike previous cycles [4][18] - Historical analysis suggests that the bottoming out of the white liquor index occurred after the 2014 Spring Festival, which is anticipated to happen again during the current cycle [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Decline in White Liquor Holdings and Return to Cyclical Stock Characteristics - Fund holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased to 2017 levels, indicating a shift back to cyclical stock characteristics [10][13] - The overweight ratio of the food and beverage sector has significantly decreased, reflecting a gradual exit of funds focused on long-term value [4][13] 2. Review of Previous Cycle's Bottoming Characteristics - The previous cycle's bottoming process involved several stages, including a decline in dealer profitability, reduced receivables, and a subsequent recovery in real demand [4][18] - The current cycle is expected to show a similar pattern, with the learning effect potentially leading to an earlier inflection point for absolute returns [4][18] 3. Upcoming Investment Timing - The report suggests monitoring for signs of risk clearance in financial statements and early inventory reduction among dealers as indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][6] - Specific companies to watch include Luzhou Laojiao for its high dividend yield and Yingjia Gongjiu for its low valuation and inventory clearance [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is navigating challenges and seeking practical changes, focusing on enhancing marketing execution and channel transformation [8] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 52.77 billion and 19.49 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.2% and 2.3% [8] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to a slower recovery in high-end demand, with net profit estimates revised to 31.6 billion, 32.0 billion, and 34.9 billion RMB [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023A is projected at 83.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 12.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is estimated at 30.21 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.19% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 7.78 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 16.27 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company achieved 49.12 billion RMB in liquor revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [8] - The revenue from the flagship product, Wuliangye, grew by 4.6% in H1 2025, with volume and price changes of +12.7% and -7.2%, respectively [8] - Other liquor categories saw a revenue increase of 2.7% in H1 2025, with significant volume growth of 58.8% but a price decline of 35.3% [8] Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025, primarily due to pressure on gross margins and taxes [8] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 82.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous year [8] - Sales expenses remained stable, with a slight decrease in advertising costs and an increase in promotional expenses [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on channel restructuring and enhancing marketing management through specialized sales companies [8] - In H1 2025, the company added 242 new stores, filling gaps in 18 counties, and developed 60 corporate clients [8] - The company aims to explore new marketing models and resource development to meet emerging demands and scenarios [8]

上 市 公 司 2025 年 08 月 28 日 五粮液 (000858) ——业绩符合预期，产品结构下移 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 126.62 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 178.76/106.33 | | 市净率 | 3.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.54 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 491,469 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,800.35/12,295.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 36.19 | | 资产负债率% | 25.48 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,882/3,881 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 05-27 ...

证券研究报告 五粮液 (000858 CH) 股价走势图 延续稳健表现，渠道改革深化 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地 饮料 | 华泰研究 | | | | | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | | | | | 饮料 | 目标价(人民币): | | 166.40 | | 公 司 发 布 | | 2025 | 年 半 年 报 ， | 25H1 | 总 营 收 | / 归母净利 | / 扣非净利 | 龚源月 SAC No. S0570520100001 | gongyuanyue@htsc.com | 研究员 | | | | | 527.7/194.9/194.8 亿，同比+4.2%/+2.3%/+2.9%；25Q2 | | | | 总营收/归母净利/ | SFC No. BQL737 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 宋英男 研究员 SAC No. S05705231000 ...

8月27日晚间，宜宾五粮液股份有限公司 （五粮液，000858.SZ）发布2025年半年度报告 ，上半年公司实现营业收入527.71亿元，同比增长4.19%；归属于 上市公司股东的净利润194.92亿元，同比增长2.28%。 其余白酒上市公司，营收均为负增长，除了今世缘和*ST春天是个位数负增长，其余均是双位数负增长。 利润方面，也基本一致，多数大幅下滑，其中已有两家报亏。 作为行业内的流通企业华致酒行，营收和利润也是双双大幅下滑。 目前，还有8家白酒上市公司未公布半年报，但目前可以肯定的是，至少有超三分之二的公司营收和利润双双下滑。 从以往多年来仅个别酒企营收和利润负增长，到如今多数企业营收和利润双双下滑，充分表明白酒行业调整进入了深水区，2025年成为白酒行业最重要拐 点之年。 | 企业名称 | 米年营收 | 涨跌幅 | 净利润 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台 | 910.94 | 9.16% | 454.03 | 8.89% | | 五粮液 | 527.71 | 4.19% | 194.92 | 2.28% | | 山内汾酒 | 830 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye [2][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with H1 2025 revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][6] - The target price is set at 215 yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential and dividend support [2][6] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing marketing execution and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 89.175 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.1% in 2025 to 84.646 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 87.270 billion yuan in 2026 and 93.496 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Net profit is forecasted to decrease from 31.853 billion yuan in 2024 to 28.723 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 29.357 billion yuan in 2026 and 31.940 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 8.21 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.40 yuan in 2025, then slightly increasing to 7.56 yuan in 2026 and 8.23 yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 15 for 2024, increasing to 17 for 2025 and 2026, and returning to 15 in 2027 [2][9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 3.7 in 2024 to 3.1 in 2027 [2][9] Market Performance - The report notes that Wuliangye's stock price has shown resilience compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable performance over the past 12 months [5][6]

以下文章来源于公募排排网 ，作者观在看 公募排排网 . 看财经、查排名、买基金，就上公募排排网，申购费低至0.001折。 本文首发于公众号"公募排排网"。（点击↑↑上图查看详情） 导语 经历了近三年消费环境的低迷，白酒板块一路下行，不过，近期在科技引领近期慢牛行情的白 酒板块已悄悄迎来久违的大涨。截至8月25日收盘，近5个交易日板块涨幅超8%，其中酒鬼酒 涨幅超30%，贵州茅台、五粮液等反弹近5%。 （ 点此查看白酒主题基金近1年收益TOP10名 单 ） 从目前估值来看，白酒板块最新市盈率，市净率分别为19.04、5.05，分别处在近十年5.43%、 20.58%的历史估值水平，对比上证指数、沪深300、甚至其他板块来看，白酒板块当前明显处 在低估状态。 中信证券认为，白酒行业动销、批价、业绩等降幅均有一定程度收窄，预计行业开始逐步筑 底。在头部酒企主动降速调整后，若未来需求逐步企稳回升，行业有望迎来向上拐点。 为了给予投资者更有价值的信息，本文将分别梳理出近1年、近3年白酒主题收益前十基金，供 投资者参考(所选基金合并规模需大于1000万，剔除ETF基金，基金前十大重仓股中的白酒股 重仓比例需在10%以上) ...

Core Insights - Wuliangye reported steady performance growth for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 52.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.492 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.28% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The distribution model remains diversified, with the distribution model generating 27.925 billion yuan in revenue, showing a modest growth of 1.20% year-on-year [1] - The direct sales model demonstrated stronger growth, achieving revenue of 21.195 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.60% [1] Channel Strategy - Wuliangye optimized its distributor network, ending the reporting period with 2,510 distributors, a slight decrease of 20 compared to the previous year [3] - The reduction in distributor numbers is part of a strategy to enhance channel structure and improve distributor quality [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company focused on the strategic goal of "enhancing marketing execution," effectively consolidating its brand position in the market through various measures [3] - Wuliangye successfully achieved its "double over half" target, with both revenue and net profit exceeding half of the annual goals [3] - Future plans include deepening marketing reforms, strengthening brand building, and enhancing product competitiveness to better meet consumer demands [3]

| 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 83272 | 89175 | 85261 | 85914 | 86574 | | 同比增长 | 13% | 7.1% | -4% | 1% | 1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 42004 | 44200 | 40741 | 41086 | 41076 | | 同比增长 | 13% | 5.2% | -8% | 1% | -0% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 30211 | 31853 | 29360 | 29609 | 29601 | | 同比增长 | 13% | 5.4% | -8% | 1% | -0% | 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：126.62 元 基础数据 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 五粮液（000858.SZ） Q2 利润增速转负，经销商集中度提升 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报， 25Q2 单季度实现收入/归母净利润 15 ...