Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is showing signs of recovery in 2026, particularly in the high-end and mid-range segments, driven by gifting and banquet demands during the New Year holiday season [1][4][8] Group 1: Market Trends - High-end liquor products, such as Wuliangye and Moutai, are prominently featured in supermarkets and liquor stores, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4][6] - The price range of 300-500 RMB for mid-range products has become a sales powerhouse during the New Year, reflecting a dual demand from gifting and banquet markets [1][6] - Online channels are also witnessing strong sales of high-end liquor, with significant sales figures reported during live-streaming events [7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The liquor market is experiencing a transformation in consumer behavior, with a shift from excessive packaging to more rational consumption patterns [8] - The banquet market remains crucial for liquor sales, with a significant portion of consumption still tied to traditional gifting and business events [9] - The dual recovery in the market reflects both consumer rationality and the maturation of the market, with high-end products stabilizing and mid-range products gaining traction [8][10] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The liquor industry is expected to face a new normal characterized by rational consumption, channel flattening, and intensified competition [10] - Companies need to focus on niche markets and immediate retail channels to capture growth opportunities [10] - The instant retail market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 720 billion RMB by 2025, indicating a competitive landscape for liquor companies [11]

Core Insights - The total cash dividends of companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) are projected to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2025, reaching 547.56 billion yuan, indicating a stable high level of cash returns to investors [1] - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, cumulative dividends from SZSE companies have surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a solid market ecosystem that favors regular and substantial dividends [1] Summary by Category Dividend Scale and Growth - The dividend scale remains robust, consistently maintaining above the 500 billion yuan threshold [1] - In 2025, 533 companies on the SZSE implemented interim dividends totaling approximately 132.93 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 25% compared to the previous year [1] Attracting Long-term Investment - Stable high returns have attracted long-term capital investments, with 166 companies in the SZSE offering dividend yields exceeding 1%, and 108 companies yielding over 1.34%, particularly appealing to insurance and pension funds [1] Performance of Different Boards - While mainboard companies continue to dominate total dividend amounts, companies on the ChiNext board have shown stronger growth, with 945 companies increasing their total dividends by 8.41% year-on-year to 137.45 billion yuan [1] Industry Highlights - Leading companies in the consumer and financial sectors have set examples with significant dividend distributions, such as Wuliangye's interim dividend of 10.01 billion yuan and Gree Electric's distribution of 5.585 billion yuan [1] - In key future-oriented sectors, notable dividend cases have emerged from advanced manufacturing (CITIC Special Steel, Weichai Power), digital economy (Yilian Network, GoerTek), and green low-carbon sectors (CATL, Longyuan Power) [2] High Dividend Companies - In 2025, 28 companies on the SZSE announced total dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Wuliangye leading at over 10 billion yuan, followed by Midea Group, CATL, and Muyuan Foods, each exceeding 6 billion yuan [3] - The distribution of these high-dividend companies is primarily in the consumer, industrial, and discretionary sectors, with notable representation from the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors [4]

Core Insights - Sichuan's industrial development has shown strong momentum, with significant achievements in various sectors over the past 40 years, particularly in manufacturing and digital economy [8][9][21] Industrial Growth and Achievements - From 1978 to 2017, Sichuan's total industrial output value expanded by 194 times, with an average annual growth rate of 12.1%, outpacing the national growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [9][10] - The province's industrial investment increased by 645.6 times during the same period, with a total industrial investment of 9,181 billion yuan in 2017 [12][13] - Sichuan has established a complete industrial system with 41 major industries, employing 3.19 million people in large-scale industrial enterprises [10][11] Strategic Initiatives - Sichuan is focusing on developing a "5+1" modern industrial system to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with specific emphasis on digital economy and high-tech industries [6][15][25] - The province has launched initiatives to optimize regional industrial layouts, promoting collaborative development across five economic zones [15][18] Technological Advancements - Sichuan has made significant strides in technological innovation, with over 4,000 high-tech enterprises and more than 1,000 provincial-level technology centers established [22] - The digital economy in Sichuan surpassed 1 trillion yuan in scale, with advancements in smart manufacturing and internet integration in the industrial sector [17][21] Export and Investment - By the end of 2017, Sichuan had over 230 industrial enterprises investing abroad, with a focus on high-end equipment and emerging sectors [24] - The province has attracted 189 Fortune 500 companies, maintaining its position as the leading region in Western China for foreign investment [24]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for liquor during the New Year holiday was weak, with feedback indicating a year-on-year decline of over 20%, although there was slight improvement compared to November and December. The supply side is adjusting with lower targets from liquor companies, and channel inventory is expected to ease. The overall demand for the Spring Festival is anticipated to decline by double digits, but the drop is expected to be less severe than during the New Year holiday. High-end liquor prices are under pressure due to continuous shipments from Moutai and upcoming deliveries from traditional channels, with expectations of price stabilization after a decline [1][2][3][4]. Demand Analysis - The New Year demand was weak, with a year-on-year decline of over 20%, but there was a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December. The industry is still in the off-season, and consumer gatherings were limited. The estimated industry shipment volume during the New Year is expected to decline by over 10%, with significant reductions in business banquets and group purchases. High-end liquor prices have dropped by over 10%, while mid-range liquor prices have generally decreased by 5-10%. However, there are signs of resilience in mass consumption, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui [2][3]. Supply Side Insights - Liquor companies are lowering their targets, and channels are expected to further reduce inventory pressure. Many companies have not met their initial collection targets for the year, leading to more conservative growth targets for 2026. The requirement for Spring Festival returns has been lowered to 30-40%, and companies are slowing down their shipment pace to manage channel inventory effectively. The willingness to collect payments is cautious, focusing on cash flow protection and maintaining core brand distribution rights [3][4]. Price Dynamics - High-end liquor prices are expected to remain under pressure, with Moutai's continuous shipments and upcoming deliveries affecting the market. The price of Moutai is anticipated to face marginal pressure, while Wuliangye's promotional activities may slightly stimulate sales. The price of mid-range liquor is at a relatively low level, with channel profits thinning, and prices are expected to stabilize at low levels during the Spring Festival [4][5]. Company Strategies - Moutai is advancing its marketing transformation and reducing distribution pressure by creating a pyramid product system and launching digital initiatives to stimulate consumer demand. Wuliangye is focusing on maintaining market order and enhancing channel incentives, while also pushing for improved sales and market share. Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting its product structure and promoting low-alcohol products, and Fenjiu is enhancing regional coverage for its products. Other companies like Gujing and Yanghe are also focusing on market penetration and channel management to improve sales performance [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand recovery is expected. Moutai is recommended for its strong fundamentals, while Gujing is highlighted for its potential growth in the mass market segment. Other companies like Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are also under observation for their inventory clearance strategies. Innovative products like Zhenjiu Lidu are noted for their market potential [7].

Group 1 - The report suggests that the liquor industry is expected to experience a dual improvement in supply and demand in 2026, following a risk release in 2025, with a focus on short-term sales recovery and mid-term structural and dividend considerations [4][78] - The consumer market is stabilizing, with structural growth changes continuing, as evidenced by a 4% decline in the food and beverage sector in 2025, which underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 20% [15][18] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance among consumer goods, with health products and frozen food sectors showing increases of 18% and 15% respectively, while liquor and beer sectors faced declines of 7% and 9% [15][18] Group 2 - The liquor sector is characterized by a threefold bottoming out, with supply clearing and value becoming more apparent, as major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye stabilize prices and restore confidence in the market [52][78] - The beer and beverage sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in dining, with a focus on leading brands that can outperform expectations in terms of volume and price [4][52] - The food sector is positioned for recovery and growth, with a focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and snack categories, as demand begins to rebound [4][52] Group 3 - The report indicates that the high-end consumer segment is showing signs of recovery, with luxury retail sales improving and experience-based consumption leading the way [30][33] - The report notes that the overall retail landscape is evolving towards discount retail, quality retail, and instant retail, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [40][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and channel development in the liquor industry, with a focus on lower alcohol content and appealing to younger consumers [72]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, particularly in the white liquor market, with the average price of the top ten products reaching a new low since the "Double Twelve" shopping festival [1] Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten Chinese liquor products on January 6 was 9068 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day, indicating a downward trend in pricing [1] - The market showed a notable divergence with five products increasing in price and five decreasing, reflecting pressure on core product prices [1] Price Increases - Key products that saw price increases include: - Qinghua Lang, which rose by 17 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin, which increased by 12 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which went up by 6 yuan per bottle - Crystal Jian Nan Chun, which increased by 4 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573, which saw a slight increase of 2 yuan per bottle [1] Price Decreases - Products that experienced price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, which dropped significantly by 35 yuan per bottle due to the impact of the introduction of a lower-priced Moutai variant - Boutique Moutai, which fell by 9 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20, which decreased by 6 yuan per bottle - Wuliangye Pu 58, which saw a decline of 3 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gong Gu 20, which had a minor drop of 1 yuan per bottle [1][4][5] Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable overview of the market prices [2]

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时中收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月6日未 能延续反弹，整体价格再度显著下行，创下双十二以来新低。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今 日总售价为9068元，较昨日回落13元，价格中枢再度下探。 今日市场呈显著分化格局，五涨五跌，核心产品的价格压力突出。上涨产品方面，青花郎延续强势，环 比上涨17元/瓶，实现大幅二连阳领涨市场。习酒君品价格上涨12元/瓶，反弹力度较大。洋河梦之蓝 M6+价格上涨6元/瓶。水晶剑南春价格上涨4元/瓶。国窖1573价格上涨2元/瓶。下跌产品方面，受i茅台 推出平价茅台影响的逐渐传递，飞天茅台的价格回调幅度惊人，大幅下跌35元/瓶，对市场整体价格形 成明显影响。精品茅台价格下跌9元/瓶。青花汾20价格下跌6元/瓶。五粮液普五八代价格下跌3元/瓶。 古井贡古20价格小跌1元/瓶。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交 终端零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products hitting a new low since the Double Twelve shopping festival, indicating a notable market correction [1]. Price Trends - The overall price of the top ten liquor products decreased to 9068 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day, reflecting a downward trend in the price center [1]. - The market shows a clear divergence, with five products increasing in price and five decreasing [1]. Price Increases - Qinghua Lang saw a strong performance with a price increase of 17 yuan per bottle, marking a significant two-day rise [1]. - Xijiu Junpin's price rose by 12 yuan per bottle, indicating a robust rebound [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 6 yuan per bottle, while Shuijing Jian Nan Chun rose by 4 yuan per bottle [1]. - Guojiao 1573 experienced a slight increase of 2 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Decreases - The price of Feitian Moutai dropped significantly by 35 yuan per bottle, influenced by the introduction of a more affordable Moutai product [1]. - The price of Boutique Moutai fell by 9 yuan per bottle, and Qinghua Fen 20 decreased by 6 yuan per bottle [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation saw a decline of 3 yuan per bottle, while Gujing Gong Gu 20 dropped by 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Data Collection Methodology - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the liquor market prices [2].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, with the overall price reaching a new low since the "Double Twelve" shopping festival [1][6]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products in China on January 6 fell to 9068 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day, indicating a downward trend in price levels [1][6]. - The market exhibited a notable divergence, with five products increasing in price and five decreasing, reflecting significant pricing pressure on core products [7]. Price Changes of Key Products - The following products experienced price increases: - Qinghua Lang rose by 17 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin increased by 12 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ went up by 6 yuan per bottle - Shuijing Jianan Chun increased by 4 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 saw a rise of 2 yuan per bottle [7]. - Conversely, the following products saw price declines: - Feitian Moutai dropped by 35 yuan per bottle, significantly impacting the overall market price - Boutique Moutai decreased by 9 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 fell by 6 yuan per bottle - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation decreased by 3 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gong Gu 20 saw a minor drop of 1 yuan per bottle [7][9]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for the liquor price reference is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][7]. iMoutai App Launch - Starting January 6, iMoutai allows users to purchase two types of Guizhou Moutai products via its app, with options for selecting production dates, either past or future, enhancing consumer purchasing flexibility [2][7].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, with the average price of the top ten products reaching a new low since December 12, indicating ongoing market pressure [1][6]. Price Trends - The overall retail price of the top ten liquor products on January 6 is reported at 9068 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day, marking a downward trend in price levels [1][6]. - The market shows a notable divergence with five products increasing in price and five decreasing, reflecting varying pressures on core products [7]. Price Increases - Key products that saw price increases include: - Qinghua Lang, which rose by 17 yuan per bottle, continuing its strong performance [7]. - Xijiu Junpin, which increased by 12 yuan per bottle, showing significant rebound strength [7]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ with a rise of 6 yuan per bottle [7]. - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun up by 4 yuan per bottle [7]. - Guojiao 1573, which increased by 2 yuan per bottle [7]. Price Decreases - Major products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, which saw a dramatic drop of 35 yuan per bottle, significantly impacting the overall market price [7]. - Boutique Moutai down by 9 yuan per bottle [7]. - Qinghua Fen 20 decreased by 6 yuan per bottle [7]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation down by 3 yuan per bottle [7]. - Gujing Gong Gu 20 with a slight decrease of 1 yuan per bottle [7]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for the liquor price reference is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][7]. iMoutai App Update - Starting January 6, iMoutai allows users to purchase two types of Moutai products via its app, with options for selecting production dates, enhancing consumer access to the products [2][7].