Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly recommending Moutai and other consumer goods as cyclical investments [15][17]. Core Insights - Moutai continues to show strong performance, with demand recovery following the alcohol ban and a significant increase in sales volume exceeding expectations. The price of Moutai has recently surged to 1700 RMB [2][15]. - The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, which aligns with expectations. However, Moutai's performance remains robust, indicating a strong market position [15]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the dining chain sector, particularly in the condiment and beer segments, driven by policy catalysts and positive holiday consumption data [15][17]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Moutai's sales performance is expected to be strong, with a significant portion of its annual quota being allocated in the first quarter. The demand for non-standard products remains high, while Wuliangye's sales show mixed results [3][11]. - The report notes that Wuliangye's distributors are less willing to make payments, with this year's signing plans being only half of last year's [3][12]. - Other brands like Jinshiyuan and Yanghe are experiencing sales declines, with Jinshiyuan performing better than Yanghe in certain markets [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of consumer goods, particularly in the dining chain sector, and suggests increasing recommendations for companies like Chongqing Beer and Qianhe Flavor Industry, which are expected to see improved performance [15][17]. - The report also highlights the importance of maintaining a significant position in Moutai and recommends other brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye, which are expected to perform better than the industry average [17]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is projected to face challenges, with overall sales expected to decline. However, Moutai's strong market presence and pricing power provide a buffer against these challenges [2][15]. - The report indicates that the industry is at a historical low in institutional holdings, suggesting potential for performance and valuation recovery as negative factors gradually dissipate [16][17].

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在2月9日延续 上行态势。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9221元，较昨日上涨29元，创下2025年 12月27日以来新高。头部酒品集体上行，中后部单品小幅回调，市场分化运行价格中枢走高。 | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) | 2410/瓶 | 7元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 53度/500ml | | | | | 五粮液普五八代 | 807/瓶 | 3元 - | | | 52度/500ml | | | | | 青花汾20 53度/500ml | 389/瓶 | 持平 | | | 国窖1573 | | | | | 52度/500ml | 900/瓶 | 7元 ▲ | | | 洋河梦之蓝M6+ | | | | | 52度/550ml | 636/瓶 | 13元 - | | | 古井贡古20 | 544/瓶 | 12元 - | | | 52度/500ml | | | | | 习酒君品 | 651/瓶 | -7元 | | | 53度/500ml | | | | 北 | 青花郎 | 720 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing a price increase, with the average retail price of the top ten products reaching a new high since December 27, 2025, at 9,221 yuan, up 29 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The top ten products saw six price increases, three decreases, and one stable price, indicating a strong overall upward trend [1] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ led the market with a price increase of 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Gong 20 with an increase of 12 yuan per bottle [1] - Moutai products, including Feitian Moutai, have shown strong performance due to high market demand before the Spring Festival, with Feitian Moutai achieving a five-day price increase [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A recent survey indicated that the overall sales of the national white liquor market have declined by 10%-20%, with significant regional differences [2] - High-end liquor, particularly Feitian Moutai, has performed well, with some distributors reporting a year-on-year sales increase of over 40% [2] - The market is characterized by a significant polarization, with high-end products benefiting from gifting and banquet demands, while mid-range products face challenges due to economic conditions and competition [2] Group 3: Data Collection Methodology - The data for the price trends is collected from approximately 200 points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets [2] - The pricing data aims to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known white liquors [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing a price increase, with the average retail price of the top ten products reaching 9,221 yuan, marking a rise of 29 yuan since the previous day, the highest since December 27, 2025 [1] - The market shows a divergence in performance, with leading brands seeing price increases while mid-tier products experience slight declines [1] Price Movements - Six of the top ten products saw price increases, with Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ leading the market with a rise of 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Gong 20 with an increase of 12 yuan [1] - Other notable increases include Guojiao 1573 and Boutique Moutai, both up by 7 yuan, and Feitian Moutai, which rose by 5 yuan, achieving a one-month high [1] - Conversely, Qinghua Lang dropped by 10 yuan, Xijiu Junpin fell by 7 yuan, and Shuijing Jianan Spring saw a minor decrease of 1 yuan, while Qinghua Fen 20 remained stable [1] Market Dynamics - A recent survey indicated a 10%-20% decline in overall white liquor sales across the country, with significant regional variations; Shandong and Anhui saw declines of around 20%, while Henan and Sichuan experienced a 10% drop [3] - Despite the overall decline, over 30% of distributors reported stable or even growing performance, highlighting a significant market segmentation [3] - Premium products like Feitian Moutai are performing well, with some distributors reporting over a 40% increase in sales volume year-on-year [3] - The price dynamics show a clear bifurcation, with high-end products benefiting from gifting and banquet demands, while mid-range products face challenges due to economic conditions and competition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a price increase for top products, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor items reaching a new high of 9,221 yuan on February 9, 2025, marking a 29 yuan increase from the previous day [1][6]. Price Trends - The overall price trend for the top ten liquor items shows six items increasing in price, three decreasing, and one remaining stable [1][6]. - The leading price increase was seen in Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which rose by 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Tribute Wine 20 with a 12 yuan increase [1][6]. - Moutai products, including Flying Moutai and Premium Moutai, also saw price increases, with Flying Moutai rising by 5 yuan, achieving a one-month high [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a significant divergence, with high-end products performing well while mid-range products experience slight declines [1][6]. - A recent survey indicated that overall liquor sales have decreased by 10%-20% across the country, with notable regional differences [7]. - Despite the overall decline, over 30% of distributors reported stable or growing performance, highlighting a split in market dynamics [7]. Consumer Behavior - High-end liquor sales are driven by gifting and banquet demands, while lower price segments are supported by everyday consumption needs [7]. - The market for liquor priced between 300-600 yuan is under pressure due to economic conditions and competition, with sales declining over 20% [7]. Future Outlook - As the Spring Festival approaches, a final wave of concentrated purchasing is expected, with high-end and mass-market liquors maintaining steady sales, while mid-range products face continued pressure [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a price increase for the top ten products, with the average retail price reaching 9,221 yuan on February 9, marking a rise of 29 yuan from the previous day and the highest since December 27, 2025 [1][6]. Price Trends - The price of the top ten liquor products shows a strong upward trend, with six products increasing in price, three decreasing, and one remaining stable [1][6]. - Leading the price increases, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Gong 20 with a 12 yuan increase, and both Guojiao 1573 and premium Moutai increasing by 7 yuan each [1][6]. - Moutai's Flying Moutai saw a 5 yuan increase, achieving a one-month high, supported by strong market demand ahead of the Spring Festival [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The market is showing signs of differentiation, with high-end products performing well while mid-range products are experiencing slight declines [1][6]. - A recent survey indicated that overall liquor sales have decreased by 10%-20% across the country, with significant regional variations; for instance, sales in Shandong and Anhui dropped by about 20% [2][7]. - Despite the overall decline, over 30% of distributors reported stable or even growing performance, highlighting a significant divergence within the industry [2][7]. Price Segmentation - The high-end price segment (above 800 yuan) is driven by demand for gifts and banquets, while the 100-200 yuan segment is benefiting from business and daily consumption needs [2][7]. - Conversely, the 300-600 yuan mid-range segment is under pressure, facing over 20% sales decline due to economic conditions and market competition [2][7]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to trigger a final wave of concentrated purchasing, with a continued split between high-end and mass-market products, while the mid-range segment remains under pressure [2][7].

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market continues to see an upward trend in retail prices, with the average price of the top ten products reaching 9,221 yuan on February 9, marking a 29 yuan increase from the previous day and the highest since December 27, 2025 [1][6] Price Movements - Among the top ten products, six saw price increases, three experienced declines, and one remained stable, indicating a strong overall upward momentum in prices [1][6] - Leading the price increases, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Gong 20 with a 12 yuan increase, and both Guojiao 1573 and premium Moutai increased by 7 yuan per bottle [1][6] - Moutai's Flying Moutai saw a 5 yuan increase, achieving a one-month high, supported by strong market demand ahead of the Spring Festival [1][6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor market is experiencing significant differentiation, with high-end products performing well while mid-range products face slight declines [2][7] - A recent survey indicated a 10%-20% decline in overall sales across the white liquor market, with regional variations; for instance, Shandong and Anhui saw declines of about 20% [2][7] - Despite the overall downturn, over 30% of distributors reported stable or growing performance, particularly for premium brands like Flying Moutai, which saw some distributors' sales increase by over 40% year-on-year [2][7] Pricing Trends - The price dynamics show a clear bifurcation: high-end products priced above 800 yuan are driven by gifting and banquet demands, while the 100-200 yuan range benefits from business and daily consumption needs [2][7] - Conversely, the 300-600 yuan mid-range segment is under pressure, experiencing over a 20% decline in sales due to economic conditions and market competition [2][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a price increase for top products, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor items reaching a new high of 9,221 yuan on February 9, 2025, marking a 29 yuan increase from the previous day [1][6]. Price Trends - The price of the top ten liquor items shows a strong upward trend, with six items increasing in price, three decreasing, and one remaining stable [1][6]. - Leading the price increases, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Tribute Wine 20 with a 12 yuan increase, and both Guojiao 1573 and Premium Moutai increasing by 7 yuan each [1][6]. - Moutai products, supported by strong market demand before the Spring Festival, have shown consistent strength, with Feitian Moutai increasing by 5 yuan and achieving a one-month high [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The market is showing signs of differentiation, with high-end products performing well while mid-range products are experiencing slight declines [1][6]. - A recent survey indicated that overall liquor sales in the country have decreased by 10%-20%, with significant regional variations; for instance, sales in Shandong and Anhui dropped by about 20% [2][7]. - Despite the overall decline, over 30% of distributors reported stable or even growing performance, highlighting a significant divergence within the industry [2][7]. Consumer Behavior - The demand for high-end liquor, particularly in the price range above 800 yuan, is driven by gifting and banquet needs, while the 100-200 yuan range is supported by business and daily consumption [2][7]. - The low-end segment, particularly bottles priced under 100 yuan, remains stable due to essential demand, whereas the mid-range segment (300-600 yuan) faces challenges from economic conditions and market competition, with sales declining over 20% [2][7]. Future Outlook - As the Spring Festival approaches, a final wave of concentrated purchasing is expected, with the market likely to continue exhibiting a two-tiered structure where high-end and mass-market products perform well, while mid-range products remain under pressure [2][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing a price increase, with the average retail price of the top ten products reaching a new high of 9,221 yuan on February 9, 2025, marking a 29 yuan increase from the previous day [1][6]. Price Trends - The overall price trend for the top ten products shows six increases, three decreases, and one stable price, indicating a strong upward momentum in the market [1][6]. - The leading product, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, saw a price increase of 13 yuan per bottle, while Gujing Gong 20 followed with a 12 yuan increase [1][6]. - Notable increases also include Guojiao 1573 and Premium Moutai, both rising by 7 yuan, and Feitian Moutai, which increased by 5 yuan, achieving a one-month high [1][6]. - Conversely, Qinghua Lang experienced a drop of 10 yuan, and Xijiu Junpin fell by 7 yuan, while the price of Crystal Jian Nan Chun slightly decreased by 1 yuan [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2][7]. - A recent survey indicated a 10%-20% decline in overall white liquor sales, with significant regional variations; for instance, Shandong and Anhui saw declines of about 20% [2][7]. - Despite the overall decline, over 30% of distributors reported stable or growing performance, highlighting a significant market segmentation [2][7]. - Premium products like Feitian Moutai are performing well, with some distributors reporting over a 40% increase in sales volume [2][7]. Price Segmentation - The market is characterized by a clear price segmentation, with high-end products (above 800 yuan) driven by demand for gifts and banquets, while the 100-200 yuan range is supported by business and daily consumption [2][7]. - Products priced below 100 yuan maintain stability due to basic demand, whereas the mid-range (300-600 yuan) is facing challenges with over 20% sales decline due to economic conditions and market competition [2][7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, a final surge in purchasing is expected, with the market likely to continue exhibiting a two-tiered performance between high-end and mid-range products [2][7].

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market continues to see an upward trend in retail prices, with the average price of the top ten products reaching 9,221 yuan on February 9, marking a 29 yuan increase from the previous day and the highest since December 27, 2025 [1][6] Price Movements - Among the top ten products, six saw price increases, three experienced declines, and one remained stable, indicating a strong overall upward momentum in prices [1][6] - Leading the price increases, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 13 yuan per bottle, followed by Gujing Tribute Wine 20 with a 12 yuan increase, and both Guojiao 1573 and Premium Moutai increased by 7 yuan per bottle [1][6] - Moutai products, supported by strong market demand before the Spring Festival, have shown consistent strength, with Feitian Moutai increasing by 5 yuan per bottle, achieving five consecutive days of price increases [1][6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor market is experiencing significant differentiation, with high-end products performing well while mid-range products face slight declines [2][7] - A recent survey indicated that overall sales in the white liquor market have decreased by 10%-20%, with regional variations; for instance, sales in Shandong and Anhui dropped by about 20% [2][7] - Despite the overall decline, over 30% of distributors reported stable or even growing performance, highlighting a notable divergence within the industry [2][7] Consumer Behavior - The demand for high-end liquor, particularly in the price range above 800 yuan, is driven by gifting and banquet needs, while the 100-200 yuan range is supported by business and daily consumption [2][7] - Conversely, the mid-range segment (300-600 yuan) is under pressure from economic conditions and market competition, with sales declining over 20% and facing issues like price drops and inventory buildup [2][7] Future Outlook - As the Spring Festival approaches, a final wave of concentrated purchasing is expected, with the market likely to maintain a two-tiered structure where high-end and mass-market products perform steadily, while mid-range products continue to face challenges [2][7]