新希望 20260130 摘要 新希望六和 2025 年因资产清理和减值计提导致亏损，其中 60%以上为 一次性影响，主要为提前处置低效种猪以提升种猪质量，为 2027 年战 略做准备。 饲料业务在 2025 年达到历史最高销量，实现量利双增，国内外市场均 有改善，海外市场保持高速增长，经营性现金流稳定在 92 亿元左右， 吨完全费用同比降低 30 元。 生猪养殖通过健康管理（降低非洲猪瘟发病率，净化伪狂犬病）、生产 管理（提高母猪窝均断奶数，提高育肥效率）和育种改良（引进国外优 质精液）等措施降低成本，运营成本降至 12.2 元/公斤。 2026 年，新希望六和将坚持现有战略，饲料业务上规模、调结构、提 效率，提高单场满负荷率，加强预混料外部市场开发，海外市场提升产 能利用率，并加强海外人才储备。 2026 年生猪养殖目标是每公斤成本降低 1-1.5 元，饲料完全费用再降 20 元，通过种质资源优化、提高养殖效率、减少过程损耗等多方面实现 综合成本下降。 Q&A 请介绍一下新希望六和在 2025 年的业绩表现及主要原因。 新希望六和在 2025 年预计亏损 15 至 18 亿元，同比转亏。主要原因是第四季 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

| 投资者 | □特定对象调研 | √分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关系活 动类别 | □新闻发布会 | □现场参观 | □其他 | | | | 单位名称 | 人员姓名 | 单位名称 | 人员姓名 | | | 招商证券 | 施腾 | 华泰证券 | 季珂 | | | 招商证券 | 李秋燕 | 财通证券 | 江路 | | | 中信证券 | 彭家乐 | 高盛 | 袁帅 | | | 广发证券 | 李雅琦 | 汇丰前海 | 沙弋惠 | | | 时代财经 | 周立 | 华泰证券 | 张宗 | | | 高盛 | 刘洋 | 摩根 JP | 陈晓光 | | 参与单 | 中信证券 | 杜克 | 诚盈投资 | 胡蓉 | | 位名称 | 国盛海通 | 王艳君 | 天弘基金 | 杨倩 | | 及人员 | 中信建投 | 郭璐 | 玄卜投资 | 韦琦 | | 姓名 | 银石私募 | 罗采奕 | 浙商资管 | 唐靓 | | | 鸿运私募 | 朱伟华 | 同泰基金 | 董万江 | | | 三登投资 | 黄伯涛 | 国信证券 | 周雅童 | | | 熙山资本 | 张亮 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

新希望相关负责人近期在与投资者互动时表示，海外饲料业务在2025年继续保持销量同比增长，预计 2026年仍将延续良好发展势头。 另一方面，作为国内生猪养殖龙头企业，新希望的生猪养殖业务在2025年因猪价下跌承受了不小压力。 数据显示，该公司在2025年累计销售生猪1754.54万头，实现销售收入232.05亿元，但商品猪销售均价总 体呈现下跌态势，2025年12月份的价格已跌至11.28元/公斤的较低水平。 从行业来看，猪价波动导致生猪养殖企业在2025年的业绩集体下滑。东方财富Choice统计结果显示，A 股生猪养殖行业（申万三级行业）的12家上市公司目前均已披露2025年业绩预告，除了天域生物科技股 份有限公司，其余公司均预计报告期内的净利润同比减少。 本报记者 舒娅疆 1月31日，新希望六和股份有限公司（以下简称"新希望"）披露2025年度业绩预告。新希望预计2025年 归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损15亿元至18亿元，扣非后净利润预计亏损11.8亿元至14.8亿元。在猪 价波动等因素影响下，该公司的业绩阶段性承压。 公告显示，新希望2025年业绩变动主要受到两方面因素的影响。一方面，该公司稳步发展生猪 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司已就业绩预告有关事项与负责公司年报审计的会计师事务所进行了预沟通，公司与会计师事务所 在本次业绩预告方面不存在重大分歧。 证券代码：000876 证券简称：新希望 公告编号：2026-11 债券代码：127049 债券简称：希望转2 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为负值 （1）以区间数进行业绩预告的 单位：万元 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 新希望六和股份有限公司 董 事 会 本次业绩预告未经注册会计师审计。 三、业绩变动原因说明 报告期内，公司稳步发展与提升生猪业务，加强防疫与生产管理，出栏规模稳健提升，各项技术指标持 续改善，养殖成本持续降低，但受生猪市场行情波动影响，生猪价格下降幅度大于成本下降幅度，致公 司生猪养殖利润较同期下降。同时，公司对部分低效种猪及低效资产进行有序淘汰和清退，亦影响公司 利润下降。 与此同时，公司在饲料业务上持续扩规模、提效率、降费用，强化内生能 ...

经济观察网 新希望公告，预计2025年净亏损15亿元-18亿元，同比下降416.72%—480.07%。报告期内， 公司稳步发展与提升生猪业务，加强防疫与生产管理，出栏规模稳健提升，各项技术指标持续改善，养 殖成本持续降低，但受生猪市场行情波动影响，生猪价格下降幅度大于成本下降幅度，致公司生猪养殖 利润较同期下降。同时，公司对部分低效种猪及低效资产进行有序淘汰和清退，亦影响公司利润下降。 ...

Group 1 - Yuehongyuan A announced the transfer of 45% equity in Hongxi Mining for 22.37 million yuan, aiming to optimize its business and promote transformation, expecting a positive impact on financial results with an estimated gain of over 22 million yuan [2] - Wanhua Chemical plans to increase capital by 19.086 billion yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary Wanhua Olefins, consolidating its carbon two industry operations to enhance competitiveness [3] - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation framework agreement to build an integrated battery industry chain project in Indonesia, aiming to establish the country as a production base for electric vehicle batteries [4] Group 2 - Gansu Energy reported that the first batch of wind turbines for its 1 million kW green electricity aggregation pilot project has been connected to the grid, contributing to over 10% of the company's expected installed capacity by the end of 2025 [5] - Lingyi Zhizao completed the acquisition of 35% equity in Liminda for 875 million yuan, gaining control over 52.78% of voting rights, making Liminda a subsidiary [6] - Tianqi Lithium's third-phase expansion project for chemical-grade lithium concentrate produced its first batch of qualified products, enhancing raw material supply for its lithium chemical production bases [7] Group 3 - Ecovacs expects a net profit of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.90% to 123.30% due to product upgrades and cost optimization [9] - Cambrian anticipates a turnaround with a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, a significant increase in revenue driven by operational improvements [10] - China Southern Airlines expects a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 1.696 billion yuan in the previous year [11] Group 4 - Shandong Gold forecasts a net profit of 4.6 billion to 4.9 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56% to 66% due to improved production efficiency and rising gold prices [16] - Perfect World expects a net profit of 720 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 1.288 billion yuan, driven by successful game launches and cost reductions [17] - CICC anticipates a net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85% due to strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [18] Group 5 - *ST Songfa expects a net profit of 2.4 billion to 2.7 billion yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 76.64 million yuan, attributed to a major asset restructuring [19] - New Hope predicts a net loss of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, down from a profit of 473.6 million yuan, impacted by fluctuations in the pig market [20] - 360 expects a net profit of 213 million to 318 million yuan for 2025, turning around from a loss, driven by increased investment income from equity method accounting [21]

1月30日，新希望六和股份有限公司（新希望，000876.SZ）发布2025年度业绩预告。 2025年，新希望归母净利润预计亏损18亿元-亏损15亿元，上年同期盈利4.74亿元。扣非净利润预计亏 损14.8亿元-亏损11.8亿元，上年同期盈利6.14亿元。 新希望表示，报告期内，稳步发展与提升生猪业务，加强防疫与生产管理，出栏规模稳健提升，各项技 术指标持续改善，养殖成本持续降低，但受生猪市场行情波动影响，生猪价格下降幅度大于成本下降幅 度，致公司生猪养殖利润较同期下降。同时，公司对部分低效种猪及低效资产进行有序淘汰和清退，亦 影响公司利润下降。与此同时，在饲料业务上持续扩规模、提效率、降费用，强化内生能力，满足市场 变化下客户对产品、成本、服务的新需求，加大海外市场投入与开发力度，驱动饲料业务进入新的增长 通道，报告期内实现饲料业务利润量利同增。 智通财经记者 彭艳秋 据新希望此前发布的生猪销售情况显示，2025年度新希望销售生猪1754.54万头，同比增长6.2%，销售 生猪收入232.05亿元，同比下降13.3%。 ...

南财智讯1月30日电，新希望发布2025年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为-15.00亿元—-18.00亿元，同比预减416.72%—480.07%；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润为-11.80亿元—-14.80亿元，同比预减292.05%—340.87%。报告期内，公司稳步 发展与提升生猪业务，加强防疫与生产管理，出栏规模稳健提升，各项技术指标持续改善，养殖成本持 续降低，但受生猪市场行情波动影响，生猪价格下降幅度大于成本下降幅度，致公司生猪养殖利润较同 期下降。同时，公司对部分低效种猪及低效资产进行有序淘汰和清退，亦影响公司利润下降。与此同 时，公司在饲料业务上持续扩规模、提效率、降费用，强化内生能力，满足市场变化下客户对产品、成 本、服务的新需求，加大海外市场投入与开发力度，驱动饲料业务进入新的增长通道，报告期内实现饲 料业务利润量利同增。 ...