Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in China is experiencing a recovery in sales driven by government subsidies for scrapping old vehicles, structural growth from gas and new energy vehicles, and unexpected export growth [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The heavy truck industry sales are expected to maintain a scale of around 1.1 million units, supported by natural scrapping demand from National IV and V vehicles, alongside export growth from non-Russian regions [1] - The export market has a potential space of nearly 700,000 units, indicating further growth opportunities for the industry [1] - The third quarter saw rapid year-on-year growth in heavy truck sales, benefiting from the implementation of vehicle replacement policies and increased penetration of new energy heavy trucks [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) shares rose over 3%, reaching HKD 30.28, with a trading volume of HKD 1.28 billion [1] - The company is on track to meet its annual sales target of 300,000 units, as confirmed in a recent call with Bank of America Securities [1] - The company plans to maintain a cautious capital expenditure plan of no more than RMB 2 billion annually from 2025 to 2027, focusing on overseas production base construction in countries like Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Indonesia [1]

Group 1 - The heavy truck market remains vibrant in November, with major brands leveraging the "Double Eleven" shopping festival to expand their market presence, resulting in significant order volumes [1][25] - FAW Jiefang achieved 6,000 orders during a live-streaming event on Douyin, showcasing 24 key models and integrating financial services into their marketing strategy [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) recorded 1,219 orders for its HOWO heavy trucks during a promotional event across 18 cities [3][5] Group 2 - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle signed a strategic cooperation agreement for 300 tractor trucks with a major customer in Hubei, marking a significant order in the logistics sector [6][7] - Foton Motor's Ouman electric heavy truck launched in Shandong, securing 208 orders, highlighting its focus on low-carbon logistics solutions [9][12] - Chery Commercial Vehicle announced a strategic partnership resulting in 3,000 orders for its new energy heavy trucks, emphasizing its commitment to innovation in the sector [15][16] Group 3 - Zero One Automotive launched its new model "Jingzhe Leizhenzi," achieving 1,068 orders within three hours of its release, demonstrating strong market demand [20] - SAIC Hongyan successfully delivered a batch of vehicles post-restructuring, reflecting customer trust and product reliability [21][23] - Hyundai Motor secured an order for 100 hydrogen fuel cell trucks, indicating a growing interest in alternative fuel vehicles within the heavy truck market [23]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation between China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) and Luanping Hengchang marks a significant milestone in the development of new energy heavy trucks, with the HOWO TX new energy tractor as a flagship product aimed at promoting low-carbon transformation in logistics [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The signing of a strategic cooperation agreement for 500 units signifies a strong commitment to mutual benefits and market expansion between CNHTC and Luanping Hengchang [6]. - This partnership is expected to enhance customer competitiveness and set a benchmark for green development in the logistics industry [6][8]. Group 2: Product Features - The HOWO TX new energy tractor integrates a high-efficiency electric drive system and intelligent energy management technology, offering advantages such as high reliability, long range, rapid battery swapping, and smart energy-saving capabilities [4][3]. - The vehicle is designed to adapt to various operational scenarios, featuring a powerful motor and a robust structure that ensures durability and high load capacity [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - CNHTC aims to leverage this cooperation as a new starting point for continuous technological innovation and to build a green logistics ecosystem with more partners [8].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in China has shown significant growth, with November 2025 sales exceeding 100,000 units, marking a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, driven largely by policy incentives and a strong demand for both traditional and electric heavy trucks [1][4][16]. Sales Performance - In November 2025, approximately 101,000 heavy trucks were sold, a 47% increase from 68,500 units in the same month last year, despite a 5% month-on-month decline due to inventory adjustments [1][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, total heavy truck sales reached 1.03 million units, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth, with the target of 1.1 million units within reach [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The continuous growth in the heavy truck market since April 2025 is attributed to the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has significantly boosted sales [4][16]. - Despite some regions suspending subsidies in the fourth quarter due to funding issues, the overall market remains robust as the policy deadline approaches [4]. Export Trends - Heavy truck exports from China are also on the rise, with November 2025 exports expected to increase by nearly 20% year-on-year, leading to an anticipated total of over 320,000 units exported for the year [4]. End-user Demand - The end-user demand for heavy trucks has been strong, with November 2025 domestic sales projected to grow nearly 40% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month, particularly for natural gas trucks, which are expected to see a 75% increase in sales [6]. - New energy heavy trucks are also experiencing record sales, with November 2025 sales estimated at 26,000 units, a 160% increase year-on-year, and a market penetration rate exceeding 30% [6]. Company Performance - Major players in the heavy truck market include: - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (Sinotruk) sold over 25,000 units in November, a 23% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 27% [10]. - FAW Jiefang's sales reached nearly 23,000 units, up 77% year-on-year, with a market share of about 19.3% [10]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation sold around 16,000 units, a 65% increase year-on-year, holding a market share of approximately 15.8% [12]. - North Benz (Beiqi Foton) saw a 150% increase in sales, with a total of 132,000 units sold from January to November, marking a 104% year-on-year growth [14]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck market is projected to return to over 1 million units in 2025, reminiscent of the market conditions from 2017 to 2019, but heavily influenced by policy-driven demand [16].

Core Insights - The new energy heavy truck market in China has shown remarkable growth, with cumulative sales reaching 137,800 units in the first three quarters of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 184%, surpassing the expected total for 2024, and becoming a significant growth engine for the commercial vehicle industry's green transition [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles in China from January to October 2025 reached 649,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 60.2%, with a penetration rate of 24.6% [2] - In 2024, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group reported a staggering 676.6% year-on-year growth in new energy heavy truck sales [2] - Weichai Power's Shaanxi Heavy Truck achieved new energy heavy truck sales of 17,880 units from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 274% [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The growth of the new energy heavy truck market is primarily driven by two factors: policy support and specific operational scenarios [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has been implemented nationwide, encouraging the replacement of old heavy trucks with new energy models, significantly boosting market penetration [3] - New energy heavy truck sales are concentrated in closed or semi-closed scenarios such as ports, mines, and steel enterprises, where operators have strong financial capabilities [3] Group 3: Challenges to Development - The rapid growth of the new energy heavy truck market faces several challenges, including an unstable market foundation and an inadequate charging infrastructure [4][5] - The cost of purchasing pure electric heavy trucks ranges from 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, while traditional fuel or gas trucks cost around 300,000 yuan, creating a significant price disparity [4] - The weight of batteries leads to a loss of 2 to 3 tons in payload capacity, resulting in an annual revenue reduction of approximately 100,000 yuan per vehicle [4] Group 4: Infrastructure and Policy Recommendations - The lack of charging infrastructure limits the expansion of operational scenarios for new energy heavy trucks, particularly in intercity transport where charging stations are primarily designed for passenger vehicles [5] - Recommendations include implementing a "gradual reduction + differentiated incentives" tax policy and integrating new energy heavy trucks into the carbon trading market to stimulate demand [6] - Establishing a unified standard collaborative platform for "vehicle-battery-energy-operation" is essential to enhance the charging infrastructure and promote cooperation among industry players [7]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese automotive brands, represented by China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Foton, have captured a 7.46% market share in Kenya's new car market due to lower prices and a wider range of models [1] Market Performance - As of October, the total new car sales in Kenya for 2025 are projected to be 11,252 units, with 840 units being Chinese brand vehicles, excluding some unreported brands [1] - Compared to five years ago, there has been a significant increase in sales of Chinese brand vehicles, which were previously represented solely by Beiben, a member of the Kenya Motor Industry Association (KMIA) [1] Historical Context - In the same period in 2021, Beiben sold only 55 trucks, accounting for just 0.49% of the new car market share [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry continues to experience high prosperity driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with significant year-on-year growth in sales and exports [9][19][73] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In October 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 106,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Registration sales were 70,000 units, up 57.0% year-on-year but down 15.9% month-on-month. Exports totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [9][19][73]. Three Driving Forces 1. **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential has decreased, with the price difference remaining around 3,000 yuan/ton throughout 2025. As of November 10, 2025, the price differential was 2,470.7 yuan, marking a low for the year [33][37]. 2. **New Energy Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to grow, with October 2025 registration sales reaching 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.7% [51][55]. 3. **Strong Demand in Asia and Africa**: Exports to Asia and Africa have seen robust demand, with heavy truck exports in October 2025 reaching 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [73][76]. Inventory Management - Inventory levels are being effectively reduced, with both enterprise and channel inventories showing a downward trend. In October 2025, enterprise inventory decreased by 200 units, while channel inventory fell by 100 units [14]. Market Share and Sales by Major Companies - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in October 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, with wholesale sales of 28,000 units, 24,000 units, and 15,000 units respectively. Their market shares were 26.5%, 22.5%, and 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases [12][27]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The registration volume of natural gas heavy trucks in October 2025 was 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137.9%. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, up 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [37][45]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 28.3% in October 2025, with significant growth in sales of new energy tractors and dump trucks [51][55]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in October 2025 were 37,000 units, with Africa and Asia being the largest markets, accounting for 44.5% and 41.8% of total exports respectively [73][76].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy heavy truck market experienced significant growth in November 2025, with a record monthly sales of 24,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 176% and a month-on-month increase of 40% [5][26]. Market Performance - In the "Golden September and Silver October" of 2025, the new energy heavy truck market saw year-on-year increases of 252% and 153% respectively, with September achieving the highest monthly sales record [1][2]. - November 2025 marked a new monthly sales record with 24,000 new energy heavy trucks added, representing a month-on-month increase of nearly 7,000 units [6][5]. - The average monthly sales from January to November 2025 approached 15,000 units, with continuous high sales maintained since March [6]. Regional Sales Distribution - In November 2025, all 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China reported new energy heavy truck sales, with 16 regions adding over 500 units [8]. - Shanghai and Shanxi led the sales, each adding over 2,000 units in November [8][10]. Company Performance - In November 2025, the top four companies in new energy heavy truck sales all exceeded 3,000 units, with XCMG leading at 3,963 units, followed by SANY, Jiefang, and Heavy Truck [12][14]. - The majority of leading companies experienced significant year-on-year growth, with XCMG, Heavy Truck, and others achieving increases above the market average of 176% [16]. Cumulative Sales Data - From January to November 2025, cumulative sales reached 161,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 189% [19]. - The top six companies, including XCMG, SANY, and Jiefang, each surpassed 10,000 units in cumulative sales, with XCMG leading at 26,200 units [20][22]. Market Share Insights - The market share of the top five companies exceeded 10%, with XCMG at 16.27%, SANY at 15.63%, and Jiefang at 15.14% [24]. - The competition among companies remains tight, with small differences in market share among the top players [24]. Conclusion - The new energy heavy truck market in 2025 has consistently shown explosive growth, with record-breaking sales and strong performances from leading companies, indicating a robust market outlook for the remainder of the year [26].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951)(03808) from HKD 24.3 to HKD 29, maintaining a neutral rating, indicating that the current stock price reasonably reflects its growth prospects [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Outlook - The company has set an annual sales target of 300,000 units, which is progressing smoothly [1] - Management is steadily advancing towards its sales and profit margin targets for 2025, with a cautious capital expenditure plan not exceeding RMB 2 billion per year from 2025 to 2027, focusing on overseas production base construction in countries like Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Indonesia [1] - The company expects a dividend payout ratio of no less than 55% during the 2025-2027 period [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Based on updated sales and gross margin assumptions, Bank of America Securities has increased revenue forecasts for China National Heavy Duty Truck for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 5%, 4%, and 4% respectively [1] - Due to the rising proportion of overseas sales, gross margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 0.5 percentage points each [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted upward by 4%, 10%, and 10% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) from HKD 24.3 to HKD 29, maintaining a neutral rating, as the current stock price reasonably reflects its growth prospects [1] - The company has set an annual sales target of 300,000 units for the year, which is progressing smoothly [1] - Management indicated that they are steadily advancing towards their sales and profit margin targets for 2025, with a cautious capital expenditure plan of no more than RMB 2 billion per year from 2025 to 2027, focusing on overseas production base construction in countries like Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Indonesia [1] Group 2 - The dividend payout ratio is expected to be no less than 55% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - Based on updated sales and gross margin assumptions, Bank of America Securities has raised its revenue forecasts for China National Heavy Truck for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 5%, 4%, and 4% respectively [1] - The gross margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.5 percentage points each due to the rising proportion of overseas sales, and earnings per share forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 4%, 10%, and 10% respectively [1]