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钢材库存压力有限,重视阶段性回调的配置机会 | 投研报告
Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]
钢铁行业周度更新报告:淡季维持累库趋势,但库存处于历史低位-20260209
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2]. Core Views - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side adjustments are beginning to show, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, leading to a quicker industry upturn [4]. - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, but market-driven supply adjustments are starting to occur, suggesting a gradual recovery in the steel sector [5]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a decrease of 5.12% week-on-week but an increase of 32.12% year-on-year. Rebar consumption was 1.476 million tons, down 16.3% week-on-week, but up 143.03% year-on-year [16]. - The total steel inventory reached 13.3775 million tons, an increase of 4.63% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 159.5 CNY/ton, down 37.4 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit was 19.5 CNY/ton, down 27.4 CNY/ton [5][33]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 766 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton week-on-week. The main iron ore futures price fell by 31 CNY/ton to 760.5 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.92% [42]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 171.41 million tons, an increase of 0.7% week-on-week, with the average available days of imported iron ore for domestic steel companies increasing to 31 days, up 14.81% [45][48]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills increased to 79.53%, up 0.53 percentage points week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.69%, up 0.22 percentage points [24]. - The total steel production last week was 8.199 million tons, a decrease of 3.27 million tons week-on-week [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].
钢材库存压力有限,重视阶段性回调的配置机会
Xinda Securities· 2026-02-08 09:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].
钢铁周报 20260208:铁矿基本面共振,价格趋势下行
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price declines [12][13]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices increased to 1,066 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices fluctuated with hot-rolled steel at 782 USD/ton, reflecting a mixed market response [23][25]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have risen to 2,090 CNY/ton. The coal market is influenced by production quota adjustments in Indonesia, affecting prices [28][29]. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production decreased to 8.2 million tons, with an increase in total inventory to 939.28 million tons, indicating a rise in stock levels despite production cuts [6][12]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decline in steel margins, with average gross profits for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively [6][28]. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.50 CNY in 2025, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12x, indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][3].
钢铁周报 20260208:铁矿基本面共振,价格趋势下行-20260208
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines, with hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices decreasing by 20 CNY/ton [12][13]. 2. International Steel Market - In the U.S., the hot-rolled steel price is 1,066 USD/ton, up 16 USD/ton from last week. In Europe, hot-rolled prices are at 782 USD/ton, increasing by 12 USD/ton [23][25]. 3. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have increased to 2,090 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton from last week. The coal market is stable, with main coking coal prices in North China dropping to 1,320 CNY/ton [28][29]. 4. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production is 8.2 million tons, a decrease of 32,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory has increased by 496,100 tons to 9.3928 million tons [6][12]. 5. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decrease in steel profits, with average gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [6][28]. 6. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - Recommended companies include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [2][6].
大中矿业:公司不存在逾期担保
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-06 12:17
证券日报网讯2月6日,大中矿业(001203)发布公告称,公司与子公司之间累计担保余额为469, 902.33万元(包含本次担保金额),占公司最近一期经审计净资产的72.16%。不存在公司及子公司对合并 报表范围外的单位提供担保的情况,无逾期担保累计金额和涉及诉讼的担保金额及因担保被判决败诉而 应承担的损失金额。 ...
大中矿业(001203) - 关于公司为全资子公司提供担保的进展公告
2026-02-06 10:30
关于公司为全资子公司提供担保的进展公告 | 证券代码:001203 | 证券简称:大中矿业 | 公告编号:2026-011 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:127070 | 债券简称:大中转债 | | 大中矿业股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 1、大中矿业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")与子公司之间累计担保余 额为 469,902.33 万元(包含本次担保金额),占公司最近一期经审计净资产的 72.16%。 2、公司及子公司未对合并报表范围外的公司提供担保。 3、公司及子公司未发生逾期担保、涉及诉讼的担保及因担保被判决败诉而 应承担损失的情况。 一、担保情况概述 公司分别于 2025 年 4 月 18 日、2025 年 5 月 9 日召开第六届董事会第十一 次会议和 2024 年度股东大会,审议通过了《关于公司及子公司 2025 年度对外担 保额度预计的议案》,同意公司及子公司根据正常生产经营的资金需求,2025 年度公司为子公司提供担保、子公司为公司提供担保额度总计不超过 437,000 万元 ...
电池板块震荡拉升
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-02-06 05:27
Group 1 - Tianji Co., Ltd. is approaching a limit-up in stock price [1] - Other companies such as Guocheng Mining, Dazhong Mining, Duofluo, Haike Xinyuan, Qingshuiyuan, Shidashenghua, Defang Nano, and Tianci Materials are experiencing a rise in stock prices as well [1]
锂矿指数大涨3%,成分股多数飘红
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-06 03:17
Group 1 - The lithium mining index increased by 3%, with most constituent stocks showing positive performance [1] - Major companies such as Zhongjin Mining, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group, and Zhongkuang Resources saw significant stock price increases of 7.99%, 6.94%, 6.48%, 4.62%, and 4.49% respectively [1]
冶钢原料板块2月4日涨1.76%,河钢资源领涨,主力资金净流入6002.78万元
Market Overview - The steel raw materials sector increased by 1.76% compared to the previous trading day, with Hebei Steel Resources leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hebei Steel Resources (000923) closed at 25.95, up 6.97%, with a trading volume of 281,100 shares and a transaction value of 710 million [1] - Fangda Carbon (600516) closed at 5.87, up 3.35%, with a trading volume of 930,300 shares and a transaction value of 536 million [1] - Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) closed at 8.79, up 3.17%, with a trading volume of 332,600 shares and a transaction value of 288 million [1] - Steel Titanium Co. (000629) closed at 3.78, up 2.16%, with a trading volume of 1,859,200 shares and a transaction value of 693 million [1] - Ordos (600295) closed at 15.21, up 1.88%, with a trading volume of 163,700 shares and a transaction value of 244 million [1] - Other stocks such as Dazhong Mining (001203) and Baodi Mining (601121) experienced slight declines [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel raw materials sector saw a net inflow of 60.03 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 10.52 million [1] - Retail investors showed a net outflow of 70.55 million from the sector [1] Detailed Capital Flow for Key Stocks - Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) had a main fund net inflow of 35.69 million, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 15.02 million [2] - Hebei Steel Resources (000923) experienced a main fund net inflow of 16.26 million, with retail funds showing a net outflow of 28.09 million [2] - Ordos (600295) had a main fund net inflow of 15.83 million, while retail funds had a net inflow of 29.21 million [2] - Dazhong Mining (001203) saw a main fund net inflow of 13.88 million, with retail funds showing a net inflow of 1.17 million [2] - Fangda Carbon (600516) had a main fund net inflow of 13.67 million, but retail funds experienced a net outflow of 25.97 million [2]