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美国钢铝关税扩围,钢价有所承压 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-25 02:35
Price Summary - Steel prices have decreased this week, with Shanghai 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3270 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from last week [1][2] - High-line 8.0mm is priced at 3420 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Hot-rolled 3.0mm is at 3420 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [1][2] - Cold-rolled 1.0mm is priced at 3830 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Common medium plate 20mm is at 3470 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Domestic ore prices are stable to rising, while imported ore prices are stable to falling, and scrap steel prices have decreased [2] Profit Analysis - Steel profits have declined this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -58 CNY/ton, -50 CNY/ton, and -42 CNY/ton respectively [2] - Electric arc furnace steel margins have decreased by -34 CNY/ton [2] Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.78 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons week-on-week [3] - Construction steel production decreased by 37,100 tons week-on-week, while plate production increased by 101,400 tons [3] - Rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons [3] - Total social inventory of five major steel products increased by 264,300 tons to 10.1621 million tons [3] - Steel mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 4.2383 million tons [3] - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.948 million tons, an increase of 48,600 tons week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - The expansion of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has put pressure on steel prices [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended tariffs to 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivatives, affecting most downstream steel manufacturing [4] - Seasonal demand weakness and a vacuum in supply-side policies have led to a significant narrowing of steel mill profits [4] - Long-term capacity management remains a key focus, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply [4] - Recommended stocks include: - General steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel [4] - Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. [4] - Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel [4] - Suggested focus on high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [4]
钢材需求进入淡季,关注华北限产
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-10 04:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [3]. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with a focus on production restrictions in North China. The recent announcement of new coal safety regulations has led to rising prices in the coking coal sector. Despite high supply levels, steel mill profits are declining. Anticipation of production cuts around the September 3 military parade may temporarily suppress steel supply [3][6]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply. The gradual release of new iron ore capacity is anticipated to restore profitability for steel companies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 8, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends. The price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,330 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 40 CNY/ton to 3,470 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 CNY/ton to 3,870 CNY/ton [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.69 million tons, an increase of 17,900 tons week-on-week. Rebar production rose by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons. Total social inventory increased by 201,600 tons to 9.6149 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 67 CNY/ton, 16 CNY/ton, and 28 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 22 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector; Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. in the special steel sector; and Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless in the pipe materials sector. It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3][6].
稳增长方案即将出台,钢铁产能有望优化
Minsheng Securities· 2025-07-20 02:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming "stability growth plan" from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize steel production capacity, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [3][7]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific prices for various steel products increasing as of July 18, 2025 [1][10]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with a total production of 8.68 million tons for the five major steel products, reflecting a week-on-week decrease [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,270 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price increases, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel [1][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products is 8.68 million tons, down 45,300 tons week-on-week [2][8]. - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 81,500 tons to 9.21 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons [2][8]. Profitability - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -19 CNY/ton, -7 CNY/ton, and +7 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].
“反内卷”持续发酵,钢价偏强运行
Minsheng Securities· 2025-07-13 08:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].
钢铁周报20250525:铁水逐步下行,钢材利润小幅回暖
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-25 07:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron prices are gradually declining, leading to a slight recovery in steel profits. The raw material costs are expected to ease further, which may enhance the profitability of steel companies [5]. - Economic data from January to April shows a continued weakness in the real estate sector, while automotive production maintains year-on-year growth. The potential for crude steel production regulation is increasing amid uncertain external demand and weak domestic recovery [5]. Price Trends - As of May 23, steel prices have decreased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3160 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [3][11]. - The report details specific price changes for various steel products, indicating a general downward trend in prices over the past week [12]. Production and Inventory - As of May 23, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.72 million tons, a rise of 40,900 tons week-on-week. However, the total inventory of these products decreased by 331,000 tons to 9.5954 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is estimated at 2.4713 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes an increase in profits for plate products, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by 0 CNY/ton, +23 CNY/ton, and +69 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - It also suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [5].
中美关税缓和,制造业需求维持韧性
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-18 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariffs between China and the US has improved external demand expectations, providing short-term support for steel demand [5][6]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in steel production control due to uncertainties in external demand and a recovering domestic demand [5][6]. - The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover as raw material supply conditions become more favorable [5][6]. Price Summary - As of May 16, steel prices have increased, with rebar (20mm HRB400) priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][12]. - Hot-rolled steel (3.0mm) is priced at 3310 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 80 CNY/ton [3][12]. - Cold-rolled steel (1.0mm) is priced at 3670 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton [3][12]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week ending May 16 was 8.68 million tons, a decrease of 58,200 tons from the previous week [4]. - Social inventory of major steel products decreased by 392,900 tons to 9.93 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.60 million tons, an increase of 463,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector [5]. - Suggested attention to high-temperature alloy stocks such as Fushun Special Steel [5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.34 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20 [5]. - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) has an EPS forecast of 0.29 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [5]. - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.37 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 12 [5].
钢铁周报:宏观政策托底,钢材需求有望边际改善
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-11 04:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies are expected to support marginal improvements in steel demand, with the government implementing measures such as interest rate cuts and increased lending for technological innovation [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in steel prices and profits, with specific price drops noted for various steel products as of May 9, 2025 [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with total output for five major steel products at 8.74 million tons, a reduction of 95,200 tons week-on-week [2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of May 9, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,150 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price declines, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets [1][10]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel profits, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins decreasing by 13 CNY/ton, 2 CNY/ton, and 44 CNY/ton respectively [1][2]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products decreased to 8.74 million tons, with rebar production specifically down to 2.2353 million tons [2]. - Total social inventory of these steel products increased by 94,200 tons to 1,031.93 million tons [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the general steel sector such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as special steel companies like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., Ltd. [3]. - It also recommends monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].
宏观政策托底,钢材需求有望边际改善
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-11 03:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies are expected to support marginal improvements in steel demand, with the government implementing financial policies to stabilize the market and boost consumption [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in steel prices and profits, with specific price drops noted for various steel products as of May 9, 2025 [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with total output for five major steel products at 8.74 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 9.52 million tons [2]. Price Trends - As of May 9, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3,150 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week - High-line (8.0mm) at 3,380 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3,230 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3,600 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm) at 3,470 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [1][10]. Production and Inventory - As of May 9, 2025, the production of five major steel products has decreased, with rebar production down to 2.2353 million tons, a reduction of 9.85 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Total social inventory of five major steel products increased by 94,200 tons to 1,031.93 million tons, with steel mill inventory rising by 196,200 tons [2]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel profits, with estimated changes in gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel at -13 CNY/ton, -2 CNY/ton, and -44 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - For the general steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].