证 券 研 究 报 告 双碳引领绿色转型，零碳园区试点先行 零碳系列报告一 证券分析师： 王璐 A0230516080007 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 朱赫 A0230524070002 2026.3.2 投资案件 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 3 2. 体系构建：碳评价+碳市场 行政及市场两手抓 3. 落地路径：源头绿色转型 零碳工厂/园区先行 1. 2030年碳达峰在即，十五五启动进入碳双控，推动全面绿色转型 15 25 35 67 90 98 100 103 101 101 106 99 105 106 0% -28.5% -37.0% -40.7% -48.1%-48.4% -50.9%-51.5%-51.5% -54.0% -65% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% - 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2030 碳排 ...

必用意亦 券研究报 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 博浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 算力对区域电力影响更大 地缘ł 短期气价或再现高波动 申万公用环保周报(26/2/23~26/2/27) 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版》 中文 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：中国发电供给充裕，煤电托底高度匹配算力需求。截至 2025 年底，全国发电装机容量 389134 万千瓦，同比增长 16.1%。其中火电装机占比 40%，太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增加 35.4%、22.9%，在风光的快速增长下，清 洁能源的占比大幅提高。发电量 2025 年 1-12 月份，规上工业发电量 97159 亿千瓦时，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

● 本报记者 谭丁豪 马年开市以来，电力板块走势强劲，表现亮眼，主力资金积极布局，多只个股大幅上涨，成为市场焦 点。 分析人士认为，本轮行情由政策驱动，电力体制改革不断深化，全国统一电力市场体系顶层设计落地， 国家电网的中长期投资规划为行业打开了成长空间。与此同时，电力行业基本面迎来向上拐点，火电、 水电企业盈利普遍得到改善，行业发展基础持续夯实。 未来，随着电改向纵深推进、能源转型不断加速，电力板块长期成长空间与配置价值愈发凸显，细分领 域投资机会值得重点挖掘。 电力板块表现亮眼 2月27日，电力板块全天震荡走强。iFind数据显示，电力板块当日上涨3.25%，马年首周（2月24日—2 月27日），电力板块累计涨幅达8.47%。 当日，电力板块主力资金净流入超30亿元，板块内多只个股涨停。其中，珈伟新能20%涨停，南网能 源、涪陵电力、协鑫能科、赣能股份等8只个股涨停。 对于电力板块近期走强的原因，多家机构一致认为，主要源于政策层面的驱动，电力体制改革持续深 化，推动电力全面市场化，并实现环境价值落地。 政策端，国家电网公司日前披露，"十五五"时期，国家电网公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，将创 历史新高， ...

A股2月收官！沪指月线斩获3连阳，春节后市场交投持续活跃，"日成交超万亿"已成常态。从板块来 看，热点聚焦度显著提升，涨价题材大放异彩，化工、有色金属表现突出。 全球AI发展驱动电力需求激增，叠加"HALO交易"加持，电力ETF（159146）场内再涨2.64%连创上市 新高，基金经理曹旭辰指出，伴随AI发展，软件等轻资产公司易被取代，而能源、电力等实物资产具 备不可或缺性，属于AI热潮下的防御性投资。此外，脑机接口赛道升温，AI大科技浪潮下，医药行业 有望释放新的成长逻辑，全市场规模最大医疗ETF（512170）盘中上探1.14%，此前3日获资金净申购逾 1.9亿元。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 11 | 159876 | 有色ETF华宝 | 3.74% | | 2 三 | 159146 | 电力ETF华宝 | 2.64% | | 3 | 159275 | 农牧渔ETF | 2.24% | | 4 | 516700 | 大数据ETF华宝 | 2.05% | | 5 | 589520 | 科创人工智能ETF华宇 | 2.03% ...

（来源：淘金ETF） 1. 长江电力（600900） 作为全球水电龙头，长江电力掌控长江流域核心水电资产，旗下三峡、葛洲坝、溪洛渡、向家坝等电站 装机规模与发电量稳居全球第一，水电业务具备稳定、清洁、低成本的核心优势。在全国统一电力市场 建设中，公司作为跨区电力供给核心主体，将充分受益于市场化交易机制完善与绿电溢价提升，同时 AI算力需求爆发带动电力资产价值重估，公司稳定的电力供给能力与绿电属性凸显，在电力行业价值 重构中占据核心地位。此外，公司积极布局抽水蓄能与储能业务，提升调节能力，适配统一市场下的辅 助服务需求，进一步强化全产业链价值。 2. 华电新能（600930） 华电集团旗下新能源核心平台，聚焦风电、光伏等清洁能源项目开发、投资与运营，装机规模持续扩 张，绿电占比不断提升。公司在国内多个区域布局新能源电站，深度绑定"东数西算"等算力项目，提供 稳定绿电直供服务。全国统一电力市场的推进，将为公司绿电交易提供更广阔的平台与更优的溢价空 间；AI算力用电需求高增，也将带动绿电直供与源网荷储协同需求，公司作为新能源发电核心企业， 将充分受益于行业景气度提升。同时，公司积极拓展储能、虚拟电厂等业务，提升调节 ...

证券代码：002015 证券简称：协鑫能科 公告编号：2026-011 协鑫能源科技股份有限公司 关于对控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 一、担保情况概述 协鑫能源科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 27 日召开 第八届董事会第四十一次会议，审议通过了《关于 2025 年度对外担保额度预计 的议案》。董事会同意 2025 年度公司（含控股子公司）在公司及下属公司申请金 融机构授信及日常经营需要时为其提供对外担保，担保金额上限为 336.69 亿元 人民币，担保方式包括但不限于保证担保、资产抵押、质押等；如果公司及下属 公司在申请金融机构授信及日常经营需要时引入第三方机构为其提供担保，则公 司（含控股子公司）可为第三方机构提供相应的反担保。公司（含控股子公司） 对合并报表范围内子公司提供担保额度为 329.01 亿元人民币，其中为资产负债 率低于 70%的子公司提供担保的额度不超过 117.42 亿元人民币，为资产负债率 高于 70%的子公司提供担保的额度不超过 211.59 亿元人民币；合并报表范围内 子公司为公司提供担保额度为 2.10 亿元人民币；公司（含控股子公司）对合营 或联营公 ...

机构：高景气格局有望持续 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 张唱� 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300317 珈伟新能 | | 5.36 | +0.89 +19.91% | | 003032 | 南网能源 | 8.22 | +0.75 +10.04% | | 600452 涪陵电力 | | 13.28 | +1.21 +10.02% | | 002015 | 协鑫能科 | 14.16 | +1.29 +10.02% | | 000899 | 赣能股份 | 14.61 | +1.33 +10.02% | | 6660000 | 闽东电力 | 14.43 | +1.31 +9.98% | | 001896 | 豫能控股 | 13.34 | +1.21 +9.98% | | 600744 华银电力 | | 7.94 | +0.72 +9.97% | | 600821 | 金开新能 | 7.39 | +0.67 +9.97% | | 600644 乐山电力 | | 13.12 | +1.04 +8.61% | | 600157 永泰能源 | | 1.84 | +0.13 +7.6 ...

Group 1: Rare Earth and Tungsten Industry - The company is one of the six major rare earth groups in the country, having completed the integration of rare earth resources in Fujian Province [2] - The company possesses a complete tungsten industry chain, with significant competitive advantages in tungsten mining, smelting, powder, wire materials, and hard alloy deep processing [2] - The company is the first in China to develop and produce ITER filter tungsten probe components for nuclear fusion devices, capable of precision machining large-sized ITER-grade tungsten materials [2] Group 2: Data Center and AI Computing - The company is planning to acquire a stake in Xiantian Computing and aims to leverage it to acquire control of Zhengzhou Heying, which focuses on third-party large-scale data center operations [3] - The company is collaborating with Alibaba Cloud to jointly invest 15.8 billion yuan in building a cloud computing data center in Zhejiang [3] - The company has established a large data center in Xinjiang Hami, with a total computing power exceeding 80,000 P [3] Group 3: Power and Energy Sector - The company has acquired Honghe Power, a major thermal power plant in southern Yunnan, with a certified installed capacity of 1,300 MW [5] - The company is a leading player in the composite insulator market for high-voltage transmission lines, with a net profit growth of 177.52% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan by 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [5] Group 4: Semiconductor and AI Technology - The company has developed a low-code platform that integrates AI capabilities and has been applied in various sectors including power, aerospace, and manufacturing [4] - The company is a leading domestic player in crystal oscillators, with products applicable in optical communication and navigation systems [4] - The company has launched a series of AI products and is involved in the construction of AI computing centers across the country [4] Group 5: Renewable Energy and Materials - The company is a leader in the photovoltaic aluminum frame market, with a global market share exceeding 18% [5] - The company is investing 600 million yuan to build a project for producing 10,000 tons of iron phosphate battery precursor materials annually [8] - The company has established a comprehensive lithium battery supply chain, including mining, selection, and processing of lithium carbonate [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on February 27, with the electric power sector showing strong performance, particularly the green electricity ETF (562550) which rose by 2.26% [1] - Key stocks such as GCL-Poly Energy, Ganeng Co., and others reached their daily limit up, indicating robust investor interest in the sector [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global data center electricity consumption will grow from 416 TWh in 2024 to 946 TWh by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% [1] Group 2 - AI data centers (AIDC) are expected to account for 80% of the new IT power consumption in data centers from 2024 to 2028, highlighting the significant impact of AI on energy demand [1] - According to Founder Securities, the AI boom is driving a surge in data center electricity usage, coupled with aging power equipment and supply shortages in the U.S., creating opportunities for domestic power equipment exports [1] - The electric grid is undergoing a new wave of upgrades due to the concentrated electricity demand from large-scale data centers, with the electric grid equipment ETF (159326) being the only one tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Index [1] Group 3 - National-level computing centers are required to achieve over 80% green electricity usage, positioning green electricity as a core support for overcoming energy bottlenecks in the AI industry [2] - The green electricity ETF (562550) is the largest in its index, tracking the China Securities Green Power Index, which includes clean energy companies as well as transitional energy sources like coal and nuclear power [2]