Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Market Overview - On November 21, the Xinjiang state-owned enterprise reform sector fell by 3.41% compared to the previous trading day, with Baodi Mining leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock movements included: - Beixin Road and Bridge (002307) rose by 9.92% to a closing price of 5.21, with a trading volume of 1.6997 million shares and a turnover of 862 million yuan [1] - Baodi Mining (601121) fell by 9.92% to a closing price of 66.9, with a trading volume of 386,900 shares and a turnover of 278 million yuan [2] - Other significant declines included: - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) down 8.29% to 7.96 [2] - Guanyi Co. (600251) down 5.56% to 8.67 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The Xinjiang state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a net outflow of 31.4271 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 13.9266 million yuan [2][3] - Key capital flows for selected stocks included: - Beixin Road and Bridge had a main fund net inflow of 2.61 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 1.44 million yuan [3] - Zhongtai Chemical (002092) had a main fund net inflow of 550.65 thousand yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 2.52974 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.6% on November 20, with Tianma Technology leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.76% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The feed sector's individual stock performance showed mixed results, with Hai Da Group slightly increasing by 0.02% to close at 58.55, while Tianma Technology dropped significantly by 9.90% to 15.02 [1][2]. - The total trading volume for the feed sector was substantial, with Hai Da Group recording a transaction amount of 2.12 billion, and Tianma Technology reaching 10.94 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 498 million from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 239 million [2]. - Specific stocks like Hai Da Group and He Feng Co. experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Core Insights - The Biotech Index (970038) closed at 2182.31 points, down 0.94%, with a trading volume of 13.462 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.08% [1] - Among the index constituents, 7 stocks rose while 42 stocks fell, with Xinlitai leading the gainers at 0.83% and Hualan Biological leading the decliners at 5.98% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Biotech Index include: - Mindray Medical (sz300760) with a weight of 12.58%, latest price at 204.81, and a decline of 0.92% [1] - Changchun High-tech (sz000661) with a weight of 4.87%, latest price at 102.32, and a decline of 0.27% [1] - Shimeiao (sz002252) with a weight of 4.74%, latest price at 6.70, and a decline of 0.30% [1] - Kanglong Chemical (sz300759) with a weight of 4.55%, latest price at 29.16, and a decline of 1.22% [1] - Tigermed (sz300347) with a weight of 4.54%, latest price at 52.37, and a decline of 2.44% [1] - Shenzhen Technology (sz000021) with a weight of 4.16%, latest price at 23.90, and a decline of 1.77% [1] - Muyuan Foods (sz002714) with a weight of 3.62%, latest price at 48.45, and a decline of 0.31% [1] - Lepu Medical (sz300003) with a weight of 3.19%, latest price at 16.11, and a decline of 1.29% [1] - Aimeike (sz300896) with a weight of 3.16%, latest price at 155.51, and an increase of 0.58% [1] - Yuyue Medical (sz002223) with a weight of 3.07%, latest price at 35.28, and a decline of 0.20% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The Biotech Index constituents experienced a net outflow of 1.382 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.358 billion yuan [1] - Notable capital flows include: - Aimeike (sz300896) had a net inflow of 26.5772 million yuan from major funds, but a net outflow from retail investors of 20.4422 million yuan [2] - Changchun High-tech (sz000661) saw a net inflow of 8.8418 million yuan from major funds, with a slight net inflow from retail investors of 186.25 thousand yuan [2] - Other stocks like Furuisi (sz300049) and Yuyue Medical (sz002223) also showed mixed capital flows with significant net outflows from retail investors [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, with the average selling price of live pigs dropping to 11.56 yuan/kg, leading to a loss of 71.95 yuan per head for self-bred pigs [1] - Analysts suggest that the current oversupply and weak demand may result in a "non-peak" season for pork prices in Q4, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The industry is expected to undergo capacity reduction, which may lead to an upward adjustment of pork price levels by 2026, benefiting low-cost producers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 18, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Muyuan Foods (002714) leading with a 0.43% increase [1] - The Livestock ETF (516760) was quoted at 0.7 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 65.58% of the total index weight, indicating a concentration in a few key players [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock performance of key companies includes: - Muyuan Foods (002714): +0.43%, weight 11.37% - Haida Group (002311): +0.34%, weight 9.52% - Biological Shares (600201): +0.25%, weight 3.91% - Other notable declines include New Hope (000876): -1.01% and Tian康 Biological (002100): -1.96% [4]

Core Insights - The feed sector experienced a slight increase of 0.07% on November 17, with Tianma Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Feed Sector Performance - Tianma Technology (603668) closed at 15.33, up 6.16% with a trading volume of 898,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.402 billion [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) at 59.69, up 3.86% [1] - Zhenghong Technology (000702) at 7.65, up 1.06% [1] - Petty Holdings (300673) at 17.70, up 0.91% [1] - Guibao Pet (301498) at 72.62, up 0.54% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 118 million from institutional investors and 78.86 million from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 197 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Tianma Technology had a net inflow of 1.03 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 130 million from retail investors [3] - Haida Group (002311) had a net inflow of 11.08 million from institutional investors [3] - Other stocks like Petty Holdings and Zhenghong Technology experienced net outflows from institutional investors [3]