Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing increasing supply pressure of live pigs as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. In October 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, up 10.40% month-on-month and 9.55% year-on-year. The actual output in October exceeded the planned output by 5.70%, but the planned output for November is expected to decrease by 3.27% compared to October [3][14][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The supply pressure of live pigs is gradually accumulating as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. The average selling price in October 2025 was 11.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [3][14] - The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, indicating a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][14] Market Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the slaughter structure was 4.89%, which is lower than the same period in 2024. The stock of large pigs is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply in the future [4][18] - The winter pork consumption is expected to improve, which may drive the price difference between lean and fatty pork. However, the high inventory rate of frozen products may suppress future prices [4][19][23] Financial Performance - In October, the industry faced deepening losses, with self-breeding losses reaching 167.97 yuan per head. The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month [5][24] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with prices ranging from 10.97 to 11.87 yuan/kg, reflecting declines of 9.9% to 13.9% [6][7][34]

Summary of Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is currently undervalued, with a PB percentile ranking low among the 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan index, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations in various sub-sectors [1][3][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Animal Health Sector**: This sub-sector has seen the highest growth, driven by specific events rather than a broad sector effect, with a 73% increase since September 2024 [4][5] - **Swine Farming**: Expected government interventions to address falling pig prices and production capacity reduction, with a focus on increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and wheat, which could lower feed costs and improve market expectations for swine farming [1][6][8] - **Seed Industry**: Potential investment opportunities driven by policy changes and a rebound in grain prices, particularly during the year-end policy announcement period [1][10] - **Pet Food Industry**: Facing intensified domestic competition and impacts from the U.S.-China tariff war, but leading companies like Guai Bao and Zhong Chong are expected to emerge stronger [1][13] - **Poultry Farming**: The high incidence of avian influenza during the peak season (October to February) may create investment opportunities, particularly in regions like France and the U.S. [2][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's performance has been relatively weak, ranking 22nd in terms of price changes since September 2024, but improved to 17th since April 2025 [3] - Specific stocks have shown significant gains, often driven by unique events rather than core business logic, indicating a lack of consistent performance across the sector [5] Future Investment Opportunities - The agricultural sector may benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies and low valuations across sub-sectors, particularly in swine farming, where supply increases, cost reductions, and consumption recovery are anticipated [6][9] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in swine farming like Muyuan and Wens, as well as low-cost or growth-oriented firms [9] Additional Insights - The seed industry may see price recovery due to recent declines in corn prices, which were driven by weather-related issues rather than supply increases [10][11] - The rubber industry is currently stable but faces short-term challenges; however, long-term prospects remain positive [12]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Views - The swine sector continues to experience losses, with an increasing number of culled sows, indicating a need to focus on the expected recovery in this sector [2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a potential turning point for milk prices anticipated [3][15] - The pet sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and the rise of domestic brands, reshaping the competitive landscape [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding stock shortages and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][18] - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with an emphasis on biotechnology and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - The feed sector shows signs of recovery, with leading companies like Haida Group achieving revenue and profit growth [24][26] Summary by Sections Swine Sector - The industry continues to face losses, with the average price of live pigs at 12.02 CNY/kg, down 4.07% from the previous week [13] - The average market value per head for leading companies is at historical low levels, with Muyuan at 3000-3500 CNY/head and Wens at 2000-3000 CNY/head [14] - Recommended stocks include leading breeders like Muyuan and Wens, with additional focus on flexible stocks such as Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [14] Beef Sector - The price of beef cattle is showing signs of stabilization, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.62 CNY/kg [15] - The dairy cow population has decreased by 8%, indicating a significant capacity reduction [15] - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [15] Pet Sector - The Double Eleven shopping festival highlighted the resilience and structural upgrades in the pet food market, with domestic brands gaining market share [4][16] - Key recommendations include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on companies with technological advantages and comprehensive product lines [17] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is under pressure due to breeding stock shortages, with a focus on the impact of avian influenza on imports [18][19] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [20] - Recommended stocks include leading companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological [19] Seed Sector - The seed industry is expected to benefit from increased focus on food security and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with significant market share growth and revenue increases [24][26] - The overall feed market is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining players [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the rebound in pig prices may be nearing its end, with supply pressure leading to a potential bottoming out of prices. As of November 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 11.90 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.80 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][12] - The report highlights that the entry of second-stage breeding is nearing its end, with high existing stock levels leading to price pressure ahead of the New Year. The proportion of second-stage breeding in actual sales was 2.12% from October 20-31, 2025, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and 0.20 percentage points year-on-year [4][19] - The report suggests that the ongoing losses in pig farming may accelerate the culling of sows, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments and disease outbreaks. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][27] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the average weight of pigs being sold has increased to 128.30 kg per head, with a week-on-week increase of 0.40 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.23 kg. The price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has narrowed, indicating an increase in fat pig supply [3][12] - The report also mentions that the breeding stock of sows has decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of October 2025, with the price of 7 kg piglets rebounding to 198 yuan/head due to rising pig prices [4][24] Weekly Market Performance - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 0.29 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the agricultural index rising by 0.79% [5][30] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with stocks like Jinxinnong, Yuegui, and Luoniushan showing significant increases [5][30] Price Tracking - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets is 18.93 yuan/kg, up 0.80 yuan/kg [5][38] - The report also tracks the prices of other agricultural products, noting increases in beef, shrimp, corn futures, and soybean meal futures [5][39][48] Key News - The report mentions that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 10.1% month-on-month increase in the price of live pigs in late October 2025 [5][36] - It also notes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released guidelines for the construction of a smart agriculture standard system [5][37] Feed Production - According to the China Feed Industry Association, the total industrial feed production in September 2025 was 30.36 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [5][57] Import Data - In September 2025, pork imports totaled 80,000 tons, down 22.5% year-on-year, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 75.2% year-on-year [5][54][55]

Group 1 - Fangzheng Technology's subsidiary plans to invest 1.364 billion yuan in an AI expansion project in Chongqing to quickly increase production capacity [1] - The current production capacity at the Chongqing base cannot meet customer order demands, necessitating this investment [1] - The expansion aims to strategically optimize product structure and enhance the company's ability to meet the needs of high-end clients in AI, cloud computing, and big data sectors [1] Group 2 - Huadian Technology signed a contract worth approximately 3.415 billion yuan for a 1 million kW offshore wind power project, which constitutes about 45.29% of the company's latest audited revenue [2] - This contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's operating performance [2] Group 3 - ST Huayun applied to revoke other risk warnings after receiving a penalty notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for false reporting from 2018 to 2022 [3] - The company has completed a review and found no conditions warranting the risk warning, thus meeting the criteria for revocation [3] Group 4 - Meihua Biological's controlling shareholder was sentenced to three years in prison (suspended for five years) for manipulating the securities market, but this matter does not affect the company's operations [4] - The company confirmed that its production and business activities remain normal despite the legal issues surrounding the shareholder [4] Group 5 - Shanghai Xiba's board members are under investigation for suspected short-term trading, but this investigation is personal and will not significantly impact the company's daily operations [5] Group 6 - Changcheng Technology terminated plans for a change in control due to a lack of consensus on key matters, and its stock will resume trading on November 10, 2025 [6] Group 7 - Hefei China reported a 23.91% year-on-year decline in consolidated revenue for the period from January to October 2025, totaling 587 million yuan [8] Group 8 - Various companies are involved in significant project wins and collaborations, including Rayco Defense acquiring minority stakes in a subsidiary and several companies winning contracts for large-scale projects [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported an increase in pig sales volume and revenue for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in sales despite a year-over-year decline in revenue [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 303,500 pigs in October 2025, representing a month-over-month increase of 13.71% and a year-over-year increase of 6.75% [1] - The sales revenue for the same period was 415 million yuan, which reflects a month-over-month increase of 8.07% but a year-over-year decrease of 11.89% [1]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological announced an increase in pig sales and revenue for October 2025, indicating a positive trend in sales volume despite a decline in revenue year-on-year [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 303,500 pigs in October 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 13.71% and a year-on-year increase of 6.75% [1] - Sales revenue reached 415 million yuan, showing a month-on-month growth of 8.07% but a year-on-year decline of 11.89% [1]

人民财讯11月7日电，天康生物（002100）11月7日公告，公司2025年10月份销售生猪30.35万头，销量 环比增长13.71%，同比增长6.75%；销售收入4.15亿元，销售收入环比增长8.07%，同比下降11.89%。 2025年10月份商品猪(扣除仔猪、种猪后)销售均价10.97元/公斤，环比下降9.86%。2025年1—10月，公 司累计销售生猪258.58万头，较去年同期增长6.49%；累计销售收入37.58亿元，较去年同期下降 8.65%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological announced its sales performance for October 2025, showing a mixed trend in sales volume and revenue, indicating potential challenges in pricing and overall market conditions [1] Sales Performance - In October 2025, the company sold 303,500 pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 13.71% and a year-on-year increase of 6.75% [1] - The sales revenue for October 2025 reached 415 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.07% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.89% [1] - The average selling price of commercial pigs in October 2025 was 10.97 yuan per kilogram, which is a month-on-month decrease of 9.86% [1] Cumulative Sales Data - From January to October 2025, the company sold a total of 2.5858 million pigs, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.49% [1] - The cumulative sales revenue for the same period was 3.758 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.65% [1]