Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a volatile surge on September 15, with Delisi hitting the daily limit up [1] - Aonong Biological rose over 9%, while Tiankang Biological increased by more than 6% [1] - Other companies such as Lihua Stock, Jinxinnong, Shennong Group, and Haida Group also saw significant gains [1]

2025.09. 15 本文字数：621，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 周末，罗永浩与西贝创始人贾国龙之间喧闹的预制菜之争似乎并未对预制菜板块带来较大影响。 | | | 预制菜 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1221.69 1.19% | | | 成分股 基金 | 简況(F10) | 资金 | 分析 社区 | | 全部 龙头股 | | 3日内有涨停 连板 | 连续3日主7 | | 名称/代码 | | 最新 ◆ 涨幅 = 5日涨幅 = > | | | 盖世食品 | | 16.75 +14.80% +15.52% | | | 836826 | | | | | 领涨龙头3 | | | | | 国联水产 | | 4.17 +10.32% +11.53% | | | 300094 | | | | | 得利斯 | | 5.45 +10.10% +11.00% | | | 002330 | | | | | 最终涨停09:25 首板 | | | | | 惠发食品 | | 11.88 +10.00% +11.55% | | | 603536 | | | | | 最终 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the pork sector, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases [1] - Delisi, Aonong Biological, and Tiankang Biological reached their daily limit up, while Jinxinnong rose over 4% and Lihua shares increased by more than 3% [1] - Haida Group, Shennong Group, Dayu Biological, and Muyuan shares all saw gains exceeding 2% [1]

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.53% on September 12, with Petty Holdings leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Aonong Biological (603363) saw a significant increase of 4.01%, closing at 5.45, with a trading volume of 1.52 million shares and a turnover of 820 million yuan [1] - Jin Xin Nong (002548) rose by 3.64%, closing at 5.13, with a trading volume of 1.25 million shares and a turnover of 653 million yuan [1] - Petty Holdings (300673) declined by 2.52%, closing at 18.57, with a trading volume of 56,500 shares and a turnover of 106 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 231 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 140 million yuan [2] - Aonong Biological had a net outflow of 37.79 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 4.36 million yuan [3] - Jin Xin Nong had a net inflow of 11.78 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 25.86 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming sector is experiencing significant gains, driven by multiple favorable factors, including government measures against EU pork imports and improving domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The pig industry index surged nearly 3% on September 11, reaching a new high for the year, with stocks like Jin Xin Nong and Tian Kang Biological hitting the daily limit [1]. - Leading company Mu Yuan's market capitalization exceeded 300 billion yuan, marking a new high for 2023 [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping measures against EU pork imports, with a deposit rate ranging from 15.6% to 62.4%, effective from September 10, 2025 [1]. - The EU accounts for over 50% of China's pork imports, and the new measures are expected to elevate domestic pork prices as import costs rise [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy aims for high-quality development in the pig industry, focusing on reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and limiting breeding [2]. - As temperatures cool, demand is expected to improve, leading to tighter supply and potential price increases for pork [2]. Group 4: Company Performance - Mu Yuan's half-year report showed a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.530 billion yuan, up 1169.77% [2]. - The company announced a substantial dividend plan, distributing 9.32 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 47% [2]. Group 5: Investment Interest - Mu Yuan and Tian Kang Biological are among the most favored stocks, with significant net inflows of nearly 7 billion yuan and over 5.8 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Tian Kang Biological is recognized for its integrated farming model and stable growth in feed and veterinary businesses, indicating promising future performance [3].

Market Overview - The feed sector increased by 2.09% on September 11, with Jin Xin Nong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jin Xin Nong (002548) closed at 4.95, with a rise of 10.00% and a trading volume of 916,100 shares, amounting to 439 million yuan [1] - Bangji Technology (603151) closed at 28.40, up 9.99%, with a trading volume of 52,800 shares and a turnover of 149 million yuan [1] - Tiankang Biological (002100) closed at 7.52, increasing by 9.94%, with a trading volume of 1,770,800 shares, totaling 1.306 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Haida Group (002311) with a 2.30% increase and a closing price of 65.75, and Mofeng Co. (603609) with a 2.08% increase [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net inflow of 175 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 15.2382 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for key stocks are as follows: - Tiankang Biological had a net inflow of 263 million yuan from main investors, but a net outflow of 134 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Jin Xin Nong experienced a net inflow of 72.9288 million yuan from main investors, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 42.2004 million yuan [3] - Bangji Technology had a net inflow of 26.4960 million yuan from main investors, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 15.2221 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme Index (931778) has seen an increase of 1.06%, with notable stock performances including TianKang Biological (002100) up by 9.94%, LiHua Co. (300761) up by 9.86%, and Dongfang Tower (002545) up by 4.75% [1] - A meeting is scheduled for September 16 to discuss the regulation of pig production capacity, analyzing the current production situation and measures taken by pig farming enterprises [1] - Guosen Securities indicates that the pig sector is expected to maintain a high price level due to a trend against over-competition, leading to improved cash flow for low-cost leading enterprises and potential increases in long-term dividend ratios [1][2] Group 2 - The domestic beef cycle in 2025 may reach a turning point, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise together [2] - The feed sector, particularly the aquatic feed leader HaiDa Group, is showing significant excess returns amid a steady recovery in industry conditions, with ongoing overseas expansion highlighting its long-term growth potential [2] - The China Securities Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme ETF (159616) closely tracks the Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme Index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in various agricultural sectors [2]

Industry Overview - Pork concept stocks experienced a strong rally on the 11th, with Lihua Co. rising approximately 13%, reaching a nearly one-year high; Tiankang Biological and Muyuan Foods increased over 7%, while Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group rose about 6% [1] - As of September 7, the national average price of live pigs was 13.64 yuan/kg, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range during the week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Institutions indicate that the supply side is experiencing a temporary tightening due to reduced output from group farms at the beginning of the month; however, the goal of reducing weight at group farms has not yet been achieved, coupled with an increase in the inventory levels of standard pigs and large pigs, leading to persistent oversupply pressure [1] - Demand is not expected to improve significantly in the short term, suggesting a continued imbalance with strong supply and weak demand [1] Future Projections - An increase in pig production capacity is anticipated from May 2024, with a peak expected in the second half of 2025, alongside a rise in the number of newborn piglets in the first half of 2025 [1] - Supply pressure is expected to be significant in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter; however, under policy guidance, the decline in pork prices may be relatively moderated [1] Policy Implications - Zhongyou Securities notes that the government has repeatedly emphasized controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting secondary breeding, aiming to guide the pork market towards "high-quality development," reflecting the government's determination to regulate pork production capacity and stabilize prices [1] - The supply of pigs in the second half of 2025 will be determined by production capacity from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with the effects of policies expected to manifest around the second half of 2026, potentially raising the price center of pork [1] Company Performance - There are significant cost differences among companies, with outstanding companies still able to achieve profitability; it is recommended to prioritize companies with cost advantages [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in A-share pork stocks, driven by upcoming regulatory measures aimed at controlling pig production capacity [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is set to hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control with 25 major companies [1] - The meeting will analyze the current pig production situation and share measures and results from pig farming enterprises regarding capacity control [1] Group 2 - Leading stocks such as Lihua Shares saw an increase of 11.86%, with a market capitalization of 19.7 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 24.49% [2] - Bangji Technology experienced a 9.99% rise, reaching a market cap of 4.816 billion, with a remarkable year-to-date increase of 185.72% [2] - Other notable performers include Tian Kang Biological, Mu Yuan Shares, and Wen's Shares, which rose over 6%, with market caps of 9.966 billion, 316.6 billion, and 132.3 billion respectively [2]

值得注意的是，公司持续重视成本控制，日前公司在投资者问答平台上表示，公司通过持续的生产管理 优化与精准饲喂策略，8月份的生猪养殖成本已降至12.6元/kg，其中自繁自养出栏肥猪成本已降至11.8 元/kg，公司将继续通过技术升级和管理提升，致力于成本的持续优化。 财信证券研报认为，由于价格波峰对应的盈利水平相较非瘟前明显降低，且高盈利窗口期可能缩短，即 使暂不考虑成本变动因素，生猪养殖行业的整体盈利中枢也面临下移趋势。在此环境下，成本控制能力 成为决定企业生存与发展的核心要素。行业内不同企业间的盈利分化将主要源于成本差异，拥有持续领 先成本优势的企业将在行业盈利中枢下移的过程中获得更强的盈利韧性和份额扩张潜力。 今年以来，生猪价格维持低位，据发改委8月下旬公布的数据，全国平均猪粮比价跌至6∶1以下，按照 《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》规定，进入三级预警区间。猪价下行周 期中，成本控制的重要性更加突出，强大的成本控制能力能够帮助猪企抵御这种周期性风险、平稳度过 市场低谷。 9月9日晚间，天康生物（002100）发布2025年8月份生猪销售简报，公司8月份销售生猪26.38万头，销 量环 ...