Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continued decline in pig prices, leading to increased losses in pig farming, with expectations of short-term price stabilization after significant drops [1][4]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - The national average selling price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and 30.90% year-on-year [1]. - The slaughter volume in September 2025 was 4.5608 million heads, an increase of 5.12% month-on-month and 4.05% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of 7kg piglets fell to 183 yuan/head as of October 10, 2025, down 110 yuan/head year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in the piglet market [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the market decreased to 4.91% as of October 9, 2025, down 0.16 percentage points week-on-week and 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, suggesting a tightening supply of large pigs [2]. - The price difference between lean and fat pigs was 3.97 yuan/kg as of October 9, 2025, down 0.13 yuan/kg month-on-month and 1.01 yuan/kg year-on-year, indicating weaker demand [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Performance - The average loss per head for self-bred pigs in September 2025 was 7.27 yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss due to declining prices [4]. - The total number of pigs sold by 12 listed pig companies in September 2025 was 13.7749 million heads, an increase of 22.47% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling prices for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with declines ranging from 3.4% to 9% across different companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to declining prices, with the national average price dropping to approximately 11 yuan/kg, leading to a downturn in the entire sector [1] Industry Overview - The pig price has been fluctuating and has accelerated its decline post-National Day, with the average price falling to about 11 yuan/kg, indicating that the industry is in a loss-making phase [1] - The price of piglets has also decreased sharply, with the price for 7 kg piglets dropping to 183 yuan/head, a decline of 43.5% since early September [1] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss, and the "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the reduction of pig farming capacity [1] - The number of breeding sows has decreased by 0.1% month-on-month as of August, according to the Ministry of Agriculture [1] Company Performance - In September, listed companies reported a total pig output of 14.23 million heads, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month but an increase of 26.3% year-on-year [3] - Excluding Muyuan Foods, the total output of listed companies was 8.65 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.6% and a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [3] - For the first three quarters, the total output of listed companies reached 142.2 million heads, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.7% [3] - Specific companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Dekang Agriculture reported varying output changes in September, with Muyuan Foods seeing a significant decrease of 20.4% month-on-month [3] Sales and Pricing - The average sales price for listed companies in September was calculated at 13.0 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.12% [4] - The average weight of pigs sold in September was approximately 114.7 kg/head, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [4] - Both fat pigs and piglets are currently in a loss-making situation, which is likely to accelerate the reduction of production capacity [4] Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is in a state of comprehensive losses, with prices falling below the cash costs for most enterprises, and piglet sales are also unprofitable [5] - Given the current loss situation in the industry and the "anti-involution" backdrop, the reduction of pig farming capacity is expected to commence [5] - The sector is currently valued relatively low, with a focus on leading companies with cost advantages recommended, such as Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods [5] - Other companies to watch include Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe, with potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology and smaller farming enterprises such as Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [5]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 23.70% and a market capitalization of 10.69 billion yuan as of October 17 [1] Company Overview - TianKang Biological Co., Ltd. is located in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and was established on December 28, 2000, with its stock listed on December 26, 2006 [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of biological vaccines for livestock and poultry, feed, and plant protein, as well as pig breeding, pig farming, slaughter processing, and meat product sales [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, TianKang Biological achieved an operating income of 8.847 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338 million yuan, up 22.27% year-on-year [2] - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 1.891 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 598 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for TianKang Biological was 60,600, a decrease of 3.42% from the previous period, with an average of 22,542 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.54% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds such as Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF and Jiashi Agricultural Industry Stock A, with increases in their holdings [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the price of live pigs has unexpectedly declined, leading to increased pressure on pig farming companies in October 2025. The average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and 30.90% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in September was 4.5608 million heads, an increase of 5.12% month-on-month and 4.05% year-on-year [14][3][4] - The report indicates that the proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the market has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply in the future. As of October 9, 2025, the proportion of large pigs in the slaughter structure was 4.91%, down 0.16 percentage points week-on-week and 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [17][4] - The report notes that the profitability of pig farming has turned from profit to loss in September 2025, with an average loss of 7.27 yuan per head. The breeding stock has decreased by 0.46% month-on-month, indicating further potential for reduction in breeding stock [24][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the unexpected decline in pig prices and the resulting pressure on pig farming companies. The average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [14][3] - The report also mentions that the planned slaughter volume for October is expected to increase by 5.14% compared to September, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [14][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs in the market has decreased, which may lead to a tighter supply in the future. The proportion of pigs over 140kg has remained stable month-on-month [17][4] - The report highlights a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand, with the price difference for frozen products declining [19][4] Financial Performance of Companies - The report provides data on the sales performance of listed pig farming companies, with a total of 13.7749 million heads sold in September 2025, an increase of 22.47% year-on-year. However, the average sales price for these companies has decreased [29][6] - Specific companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant changes in their sales volumes and prices, with some companies experiencing a decline in average sales prices [34][39][45]

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.02% on October 14, with Zhongchong Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Baiyang Co., Ltd. saw a significant increase of 9.97%, closing at 6.84, with a trading volume of 164,800 shares and a turnover of 110 million [1] - Other notable performers included Lude Environment (+3.39%), Tiankang Biological (+1.19%), and Tangrenshen (+0.42%) [1] - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reported a decline of 5.82%, closing at 53.38, with a trading volume of 141,600 shares and a turnover of 760 million [2] - Aonong Biological and Tianma Technology also experienced declines of 2.18% and 1.75%, respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 183 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 185 million [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed that Baiyang Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 36.87 million from main funds, while Tiankang Biological had a net inflow of 15.21 million [3] - Conversely, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a significant net outflow of 76 million from main funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological announced that as of now, the company and its subsidiaries do not provide guarantees for the controlling shareholders, actual controllers, or their related parties, and there are no overdue external guarantees [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Company Guarantees** - The company confirmed that it and its subsidiaries have not provided any guarantees for the controlling shareholders or their related parties [2] - **Overdue Guarantees** - There are no overdue external guarantees reported by the company [2]

Group 1 - The company, Tiankang Biological, reported that as of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 60,564 [1]

公司于 2025 年 8 月 18 日召开 2025 年第二次临时股东大会会议，审议通过《关 于对公司 2025 年度融资担保额度进行预计的议案》，同意向当地有关银行申请综 合融资授信额度 66.5 亿元提供担保，同意为公司产业链养殖户和经销商等合作伙 伴的融资提供不超过 4.8 亿元担保。内容详见刊登于 2025 年 8 月 2 日本公司规定 信息披露报纸《证券时报》和巨潮资讯网 www.cninfo.com.cn 上的《天康生物股 份有限公司关于对 2025 年度融资担保额度进行预计的公告》（公告编号： 2025-042）。 天康生物 证券代码：002100 证券简称：天康生物 公告编号：2025-055 天康生物股份有限公司 关于公司及子公司担保进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、担保决策情况概述 天康生物股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 3 月 24 日召开 2025 年第一次临时股东大会会议，审议通过公司《关于为下属公司原料采购提供担保 的议案》，同意为下属公司饲料原料采购应付货款提供不超过 1.61 亿元 ...

格隆汇10月10日丨天康生物(002100.SZ)公布，2025年9月份销售生猪26.69万头，销量环比增长1.18%， 同比下降5.25%；销售收入3.84亿元，销售收入环比增长1.05%，同比下降27.95%。2025年9月份商品猪 （扣除仔猪、种猪后）销售均价12.17元/公斤，环比下降4.85%。2025年1-9月，公司累计销售生猪 228.23万头，较去年同期增长6.46%；累计销售收入33.42亿元，较去年同期下降8.26%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a significant increase in net subscriptions and notable gains in constituent stocks [1][3]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, closing up 0.8% after reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.5%. It recorded a net subscription of 52 million units by the end of the day [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as TianKang Biological and GuanNong Co., saw increases exceeding 7%, while several others, including XiongDi Technology and ShengWu Shares, rose over 4% [1]. Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with a reported decrease of 400,000 breeding sows compared to the previous month and a total reduction of 3.4 million from the peak last year [2]. - Recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, China, have heightened risks for the farming sector. A meeting on September 16 emphasized policies aimed at reducing production capacity [2][3]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from Pacific Securities and Dongfang Securities suggest that the current fundamentals and policy changes favor capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, indicating potential long-term investment value as most listed companies are at historical low valuations [3][4]. - The agricultural sector's valuation remains low, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.61, which is in the lower 34.9% of the past decade, suggesting a favorable entry point for investors [3]. Future Trends - The trend towards improving quality and efficiency in the pig farming industry is expected to continue, with outdated capacities being phased out and market dynamics shifting towards higher prices in the long term [4][5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various segments, including pig farming, feed, animal health, and crop planting, as the demand for these sectors is anticipated to rise with the recovery of pig stocks [5][6].