房地产板块突然爆发。 从市场交易看，在各项稳楼市政策作用下，房地产销售基本平稳。1—5月份，新建商品房销售面积和销售额同 比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，与1—4月份基本持平。部分一线、二线城市市场交易较为活跃，商品房销售面积和 销售额保持增长。 从市场价格看，新建商品住宅价格同比降幅继续收窄。5月份70个大中城市中，多数城市商品住宅销售价格同 比降幅收窄。其中，一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅比上月收窄0.4、0.4和0.5个百分点；二 手住宅销售价格同比降幅分别收窄0.5、0.4和0.5个百分点。从商品房库存看，5月末商品房待售面积比4月末减 少715万平方米，连续三个月减少。 付凌晖强调，总的看，促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策持续显效，5月份房地产市场运行总体平稳。但也要看 到，房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改善，促进房地产止跌回稳还需要继 续努力。 付凌晖还表示，下阶段，要认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重 大变化的现实，持续推动城市更新和危旧房改造，加大"好房子"建设供应力度，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释 放，积极构建房地产发展 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The necessity for marginal easing in the industry is gradually increasing, with the policy goal of stabilizing the market becoming more proactive. However, since April, the marginal downward pressure has intensified [2][4] - The current position of development stocks is not high, indicating that the necessity for policy easing is increasing. Investors are advised to selectively allocate and wait for trading windows, while focusing on leading companies with stable cash flows and potential high dividends in commercial, brokerage, and property management sectors as strategic opportunities [2][4][8] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.27% this week, with an excess return of -1.02% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 25th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 6.14%, with an excess return of -4.35%, ranking 30th out of 32 [5][14] Policy Developments - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. Policies will support the construction of "good houses" and optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand [6][16] - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, are proposing new policies to support housing purchases, including the withdrawal of purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [6][16] Sales Data - In sample cities, new home and second-hand home registrations are fluctuating at low levels. The new home transaction area in 37 cities showed a four-week rolling year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand homes increased by 7.7% [7][18] - As of June 13, the new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, while second-hand homes increased by 11.6% [7][18] Weekly Highlights - The downward slope of the industry has been expanding since Q2, with the policy goal of stabilizing the market facing pressure. The marginal easing of industrial policies is becoming clearer, although the pace and intensity need further discussion [8][4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, particularly highlighting the potential for policy-driven recovery in major cities [6][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations, with A-share real estate down by 1.8% and Hong Kong real estate up by 2.6% during the week of June 7-13 [2][17]. - Guangzhou's proposed policy changes, including the removal of purchase restrictions, are expected to stimulate market activity and may lead to similar actions in other first-tier cities [4][6]. - New home sales have shown a week-on-week increase of 13% and a year-on-year increase of 15% across 47 cities, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment [3][32]. - The second-hand housing market also saw a significant increase, with a 30% week-on-week rise in transaction volume across 22 cities [40][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 26th among all sectors with a decline of 1.8%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 6th with an increase of 2.6% [2][17]. - The property service index in Hong Kong rose by 3.1%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 Index by 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively [23][2]. Land Market - The average land premium rate remains low at 3%, with a total of 626,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities during the week, marking a 101% increase week-on-week but a 21% decrease year-on-year [26][30]. - Year-to-date, the total residential land area sold is 15,209,000 square meters, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year decline [26][30]. Policy Developments - Guangzhou's proposed policy changes aim to eliminate purchase, sale, and price restrictions, which could lead to a broader easing of real estate policies in other major cities [4][6]. - The central government has indicated a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting further policy support may be forthcoming [4][6]. Financing Trends - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with new long-term loans for residents rebounding to 746 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing conditions [5][18]. - The year-to-date decline in new long-term loans has narrowed to 2.9%, suggesting improved market resilience [5][18]. Sales Data - New home sales in 47 cities totaled 3.31 million square meters, with significant increases in first-tier cities [32][3]. - Second-hand home sales reached 2.51 million square meters, with notable growth in transaction volumes across all city tiers [40][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new development model for real estate to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. The focus is on long-term strategies, maintaining stability while progressing, and establishing foundational systems in an orderly manner [4][8]. - The term "stop the decline and stabilize" has been reiterated, suggesting that further supportive policies may be introduced to enhance market stability. This reflects the central government's ongoing commitment to stabilizing housing prices and addressing the current market challenges [6]. - The "Good Housing" initiative is gaining traction, with increased support from various provinces and a shift in policy focus from mere housing availability to creating livable environments. This initiative is expected to accelerate development and improve the quality of housing [6][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market. This includes a thorough assessment of existing land and ongoing projects to refine current policies [4][6]. - The new development model aims to be a long-term mechanism rather than a short-term fix, with an emphasis on gradual implementation and avoiding abrupt changes in policy [6][8]. Market Analysis - The report notes that while transaction volumes in the primary and secondary housing markets have stabilized over the past three years, price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. Therefore, it is deemed necessary to enhance policy support [6]. - The anticipated new round of supportive policies may include measures such as mortgage rate reductions, increased "Good Housing" initiatives, and optimized land storage policies, which are expected to benefit quality real estate companies [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies that are likely to lead the market recovery, including firms like China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments. It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies for potential investment opportunities [6][11][12].

证券代码：002244 证券简称：滨江集团 公告编号：2025—035 杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别风险提示 截止本公告日，公司及控股子公司对外担保总额为 800,104.23 万元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的 29.07%。 一、担保情况概述 （一）基本情况 公司控股子公司深圳市爱义房地产开发有限公司（以下简称"爱 义公司"或"借款人"）于2024年6月向中信银行股份有限公司申请了 额度不超过25.92亿元的综合授信，公司以持有的爱义公司65%的股权 为本次融资提供质押担保，同时按65%的股权比例为爱义公司该次融 资提供连带责任保证担保，担保额度为16.848亿元。现根据相关协议 安排，公司在爱义公司的股权比例由65%变更为100%，为切实保障项 目的良好运作，公司拟按最新的股权比例为爱义公司该笔融资提供连 带责任保证担保及股权质押担保，保证范围为借款人未清偿债务的 100%（最高本金限额为25.92亿元），即担保金额由原先的不超过 16.848亿元增至不超过25.92亿 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at maintaining a steady market expected to continue throughout the year [2][9] - The central government has set a tone for real estate policies to stabilize the market through urban renewal and the release of rigid and improvement demands [11][12] - The demand side is seeing policy adjustments to stimulate housing demand, including optimizing housing fund loan policies and increasing purchase subsidies [15][16] Group 2: Property Sector Insights - The property service sector is stabilizing, with a slowdown in management scale growth and stable property fee changes [3][6] - The financial performance of property services shows a prominent increase in revenue without a corresponding increase in profit, indicating a trend towards reliance on the parent company [3][6] Group 3: REITs and Investment Opportunities - The REITs sector is expanding rapidly, with a stable performance in consumer and affordable housing categories [4][6] - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition is accelerating, with significant planned investments in idle land across various provinces [18][19] - The city village renovation policies are being implemented successfully, with several cities exploring or launching housing voucher policies for urban renewal [21][22] Group 4: Supply Side Developments - The standards for "good housing" are becoming clearer, with over 30 provinces and cities introducing new construction standards aimed at improving housing quality [23][24] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released guidelines focusing on the construction of high-quality residential projects [23][24] Group 5: Sales Trends - New home sales are expected to see a narrowing year-on-year decline, while the enthusiasm for second-hand homes is likely to persist [27][28] - The sales performance of top developers shows a concentration of sales among leading companies, with a slight year-on-year decrease in core city sales [32][34] - The market is experiencing significant polarization, with varying de-stocking effects across major cities [37][41] Group 6: Land Market Dynamics - The concentration of land sales in core cities is increasing, indicating a sustained interest from developers in acquiring land [45][46] - The land transaction volumes and prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou reflect a competitive land market [49][52]

Core Viewpoint - Binjiang Group maintains a cautious approach amidst the deep adjustment in the real estate industry, focusing on stability and prudent management while achieving significant sales growth and financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Management and Governance - Binjiang Group's board of directors has been re-elected, with Qi Jinxing continuing as chairman, indicating stability in leadership [1]. - The management team has remained consistent, with key executives having over 15 years of experience in the company [1]. - The company is facing a succession issue, as Qi Jinxing's son has joined the group, but the transition remains on hold [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Binjiang Group reported a revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.85%, and a net profit of 3.791 billion yuan, up 32.94% [1]. - The company achieved a sales performance of 111.63 billion yuan, ranking ninth among national real estate companies and being the only private enterprise in the top ten [1][2]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Binjiang Group has been actively acquiring high-quality land parcels in Hangzhou, but faces increasing competition in the market [2][3]. - The company has adopted a strategy of "heavy investment in core cities and light assets in non-core cities," aligning with its goal of reducing uncertain city investments [4]. - In 2025, Binjiang's land acquisition amounted to 27.53 billion yuan, with 80% of this investment in Hangzhou [3][4]. Group 4: Land Acquisition and Development - Binjiang Group has set records for land prices in Hangzhou, with significant acquisitions in early 2025, including a plot that became the first in the city to exceed a floor price of 60,000 yuan per square meter [5]. - The company plans to develop these high-cost land parcels through partnerships to mitigate risks, although specific partners have not been disclosed [5][6]. - The financial cost of developing these "land king" plots is projected to increase by approximately 1 billion to 1.4 billion yuan due to high land acquisition costs [6]. Group 5: Market Challenges - The real estate market in Hangzhou is experiencing structural differentiation, with core areas remaining strong while peripheral areas struggle [6]. - Binjiang Group faces challenges in pricing its new developments, as high costs may lead to difficulties in sales if priced too high, while low pricing could risk profitability [6]. - The company's ability to enhance product quality will be crucial in navigating the challenges posed by high land costs and market uncertainties [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, under the leadership of Chairman Qi Jinxing, has invested over 500 million yuan in transforming Hujiaping Village into a "summer resort in the Yangtze River Delta" and aims to set a benchmark for rural revitalization and common prosperity in China [1][3]. Investment and Financial Performance - Over the past three years, the company has invested approximately 500 to 600 million yuan, averaging about 180 million yuan annually, which is manageable given the company's scale of over 100 billion yuan [3]. - The sales revenue during the last three and a half years accounted for more than half of the company's total sales since its establishment 33 years ago, with last year's sales exceeding 110 billion yuan [6]. Leadership and Management Philosophy - The company emphasizes the importance of a stable team and has maintained a 7-hour workday with limited overtime, fostering a productive work environment [16]. - Chairman Qi believes that a good boss should ensure the long-term success and quality of the company while sharing the results with the team [17]. Personal Insights and Values - Qi Jinxing reflects on the evolution of his views on wealth, stating that while money was initially important, the value of social contributions and the impact on society have become more significant [8]. - He emphasizes the importance of health, diligence, and taking steady steps towards goals as key advice for young entrepreneurs [17].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房二手房成交同环比回落，城市更新政策持 续释放动能 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -17% -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 33% 2024/6/11 2024/10/10 2025/2/8 2025/6/9 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《新房成交面积环比改善，二手房成 交同比持续正增》 2025-06-04 《LPR 下调 10 基点，持续推进城市更 新》 2025-05-26 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.6.3-2025.6.6）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅 0.9%,同期沪 深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 0.9%、1.6%，超额收益分别为 0.0%、 -0.7%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 20。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城新房成 ...