Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shengnong Development has shown a mixed performance in recent trading, with a year-to-date increase of 19.80% but a decline of 2.77% over the last five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 21, Shengnong Development's stock price was 16.87 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 20.972 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a net inflow of 18.0087 million CNY from main funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1] - The stock has fluctuated with a 60-day increase of 5.04% and a 20-day decrease of 3.87% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shengnong Development reported a revenue of 8.856 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 910 million CNY, showing a significant increase of 791.93% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 10, the number of shareholders for Shengnong Development was 32,100, with an average of 38,224 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - The company has distributed a total of 6.860 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.113 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable increases in holdings by Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF [3]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector continues to show weakness, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a decline of 1.5% by market close on October 20, 2023 [1][2] Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) closed at 0.982, down 0.015 from the previous day, reflecting a 1.5% decrease [2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Haida Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tianma Technology, saw significant declines, with Haida Group dropping over 6% and Juxing Agriculture falling over 4% [1][2] Industry Trends - The 14th World Pig Industry Expo opened on October 18, 2025, showcasing over 800 global enterprises and focusing on smart farming equipment and technology [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with five other departments, issued guidelines to strengthen modern agricultural service centers, enhancing support for feed production and animal disease prevention [1] Regulatory Environment - From May to September 2023, multiple meetings were held regarding pig farming, with policies aimed at reducing production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [3] - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction, with a reported decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August 2023 [3] Valuation Insights - The agricultural and fishery sector is currently at a relatively low valuation level, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.59, placing it in the 31.64 percentile over the past decade [3] - This suggests a favorable configuration opportunity for long-term investments in the sector [3] Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to see a rise in price levels due to ongoing capacity reduction and regulatory policies [5] - The focus will be on improving quality and efficiency in the industry, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][62]. Core Views - The swine sector is undergoing deepening regulation, with a focus on value reassessment opportunities. The report suggests that the price of pigs may face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply, but regulatory measures are expected to stabilize prices in the long run [1][16]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to improve, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [2][27]. - The animal health sector is seeing a potential improvement in competitive dynamics, particularly with the progress of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions [3][35]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market expected to continue its rapid growth [9][55]. Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is in a regulatory phase aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows is stable at 40.38 million heads [15][16]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][16]. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of improvement, with a total of 80.33 thousand sets of breeding stock updated in the first three quarters of 2025. The report highlights a shift towards self-breeding, with self-bred stock accounting for 59% [2][27]. - Recommended companies in this sector are Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [2][27]. Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry. The report notes that clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are underway, which could lead to commercialization [3][35]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipu Biological, with additional focus on Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Biological, and others [3][35]. Planting - The report indicates a declining pig-to-grain price ratio, with the current ratio at 4.95. The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn priced at 2181 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][44]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. The report notes a year-on-year increase in industrial feed production [45][46]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [45][46]. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The report highlights the increasing consumption per pet, with dogs averaging 2961 yuan and cats 2020 yuan annually [55][56]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with Ruipu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][55].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector experienced a decline of 1.22% on October 20, with Juxing Agriculture leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.98% [1][2]. Livestock Sector Performance - Juxing Agriculture's stock closed at 18.47, down 4.15%, with a trading volume of 189,500 shares and a transaction value of 350 million yuan [2]. - Other notable declines included Muyuan Foods, down 2.25% to 49.48, and Shengnong Development, down 1.31% to 16.53 [2]. - In contrast, stocks like Luoniushan and *ST Tianshan saw slight increases of 1.96% and 1.23%, respectively [1]. Capital Flow Analysis - The livestock sector saw a net outflow of 243 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 209 million yuan [2][3]. - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in stocks like Zhengbang Technology and Huaying Agriculture, while main funds showed outflows in several stocks including Shengnong Development and *ST Tianshan [3].

Core Insights - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 0.5% and a trading volume of 997,400 yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 207 million yuan [1] - Notable performers among constituent stocks include Hainan Rubber, Ronniu Mountain, and Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, with increases of 3.7%, 3.63%, and 3.0% respectively [1] - Conversely, Haida Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tianma Technology experienced declines of 3.34%, 2.91%, and 2.61% respectively [1] - The Northeast Animal Husbandry Expo has been officially renamed and focuses on industry innovation and resource integration, while the 14th World Pig Industry Expo opened on October 18 in Changsha, covering 100,000 square meters and attracting over 800 global enterprises [1] - Dongguan Securities reported that pig prices have fallen to 11.17 yuan/kg, leading to continuous losses in breeding profits, with an average loss of 244.7 yuan per self-breeding pig [1] - The number of breeding sows remains high at 40.38 million, indicating significant future capacity reduction potential [1] - In poultry farming, the average price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, but breeding profits have marginally improved to -2.03 yuan per bird [1] - The industry valuation is at a PB of 2.85 times, which is at the historical 63.8% percentile, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is experiencing supply pressure release, with prices continuing to decline; self-breeding and purchased piglet farming are both operating at losses of 244.70 yuan and 375.29 yuan per head respectively [2] - Under policy guidance, capacity reduction may accelerate, with a slight decrease in the number of breeding sows in September [2] - In poultry farming, the outbreak of avian influenza overseas creates uncertainty in the breeding of grandparent chickens, which is beneficial for the white feather chicken industry chain prices [2] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to bottom out, with year-on-year changes in vaccine approvals for roundworms and pseudorabies at -17% and -11% respectively [2] - The seed industry is focusing on the progress of biological breeding expansion, the promotion of genetically modified corn, and industry mergers and acquisitions [2] - Pet food exports are minimally affected by tariff disturbances, while domestic sales continue to grow rapidly, with a 3% increase in e-commerce platform sales in September [2] - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) and its linked funds passively track the agricultural and livestock index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope Liuhe, Meihua Holdings, Dabeinong Technology, Shennong Development, Bio-Stock, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuffs, and Lihua Co., with expected significant growth in stock prices [2][31]. Core Insights - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing a tight supply of chicks, leading to a slight increase in chick prices, but overall profitability is declining due to rising costs and low prices for broilers [1][9]. - The yellow feather chicken market shows significant recovery in both volume and price, with major companies reporting improved profitability due to rising demand and lower production costs [1][21]. - The overall poultry industry is expected to see a tightening supply of parent stock, which will positively impact chick prices in the future [9][31]. Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - Chick prices in September averaged 3.27 yuan per chick, down 8.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [8]. - The average price for broilers was 6.99 yuan per kilogram, down 3.2% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month, leading to a loss of 1 yuan per chick for producers [9]. - The supply of parent stock is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the availability of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [9][31]. Yellow Feather Chicken - In September, the average price for fast-growing chickens was 5.41 yuan per jin, up 2.5% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in prices [24]. - Major companies like Wens and Lihua reported increased sales volumes, with Wens selling 123 million broilers, a 4.8% increase year-on-year [21]. - The cost of raising yellow feather chickens has decreased, with Wens' cost dropping to 5.6 yuan per jin, setting the stage for improved profitability in the fourth quarter [25][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken breeding sector, highlighting Shengnong Development as a key player due to its cost improvements [31]. - For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended as they are well-positioned to benefit from the expected price recovery and improved market conditions [31].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in livestock and feed industries, with a focus on identifying quality companies for investment opportunities [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock segment, is experiencing significant price fluctuations and profitability challenges, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the beef and dairy markets as seasonal demand increases, while also noting the ongoing pressures in the pig farming sector due to price declines [3][4][5][6]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if crop yields decrease significantly [6][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - Current pig prices are in a downward trend, with the average weight of pigs at 128.25 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price drops [3][22]. - The report anticipates continued increases in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further price declines [3][22]. - Long-term prospects remain positive for leading companies in the sector, with recommendations to focus on low-cost producers like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is stabilizing, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing resilience due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction [4][36]. - The report notes that while white feathered chicken prices are under pressure, overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve with a recovery in consumer demand [4][38]. Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise as the consumption season approaches, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [5][42]. - The report indicates that the beef and dairy sectors are currently facing losses, but a recovery is anticipated as demand increases and supply contracts [5][43]. Planting Industry - The planting sector is experiencing price volatility due to new corn harvests and ongoing uncertainties regarding soybean imports [6][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and suggests that a significant reduction in crop production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various feed types [6][62]. - The aquaculture sector is showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing, indicating a potential recovery in this segment [6][62].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The first pet Double Eleven sales report has been released, indicating potential catalysts for the sector [1][12] - The trend of domestic substitution and premiumization in the pet food market remains strong, with most top brands being domestic [2][13] - The current valuation of pig farming is relatively low, with opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies [3][15] - The poultry market shows mixed signals, with white feather chicken prices declining while yellow feather chicken prices are increasing [15][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [15] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - The top ten brands in the pet food sector are predominantly domestic, with high-end brands like Xianlang and Fregate leading the sales [2][13] - The Double Eleven event is ongoing, with expectations for new product launches and sales data to be closely monitored [14] Pig Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 10.98 yuan/kg, down 3.6% from last week [3][16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.03 yuan/kg, down 2.4% [16][24] - Self-breeding pig farming shows a loss of 244.7 yuan per head, indicating a decrease in profitability [20][21] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1%, while chicken product prices average 8.6 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [15][34] - The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 2.2% to 3.29 yuan each [15][30] - Yellow feather chicken prices have shown a 1.9% increase, suggesting seasonal price elasticity opportunities [15][40] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [15] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to continue, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors [15][49] Commodity Prices - Domestic corn prices have decreased by 2.0% to 2263.14 yuan/ton [50] - Soybean meal prices have dropped by 0.7% to 2993.43 yuan/ton [68] - The price of imported fish meal has decreased by 3.7% to 13067.39 yuan/ton [80]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shengnong Development's stock has been declining for five consecutive days, with a total drop of 6.58% during this period, closing at 16.75 yuan per share on October 17, with a market capitalization of 20.823 billion yuan [1] - Shengnong Development, established on December 21, 1999, and listed on October 21, 2009, primarily engages in the breeding and processing of meat chickens, with revenue composition of 52.77% from chicken, 41.70% from meat products, and 5.53% from other sources [1] - The trading volume on October 17 was 185 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.89% [1] Group 2 - Jiutai Fund has one fund heavily invested in Shengnong Development, specifically Jiutai Ruifeng Mixed A (168104), which held 70,000 shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, accounting for 6.69% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating loss for Jiutai Ruifeng Mixed A on the day of reporting is approximately 18,200 yuan, with a total floating loss of 82,600 yuan during the five-day decline [2] - Jiutai Ruifeng Mixed A was established on August 30, 2016, with a current scale of 14.8704 million yuan, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 3.41% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance and trading activity of Shengnong Development indicate a mixed outlook, with significant growth in net profit but a slight decline in stock price and trading volume [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shengnong Development reported operating revenue of 8.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 910 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 791.93% [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 6.860 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.113 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 2: Stock Trading Activity - On October 16, Shengnong Development's stock price fell by 1.73%, with a trading volume of 254 million yuan [1]. - The company experienced a net financing purchase of 19.234 million yuan on the same day, with a total financing balance of 3.32 billion yuan, representing 1.56% of its market capitalization [1]. - The short selling activity included a repayment of 11,100 shares and a sale of 11,800 shares, with a short selling balance of 245.62 million yuan, indicating a relatively high level of short interest [1]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of October 10, the number of shareholders for Shengnong Development reached 32,100, a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 0.14% to 38,224 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, increasing its stake by 13.3849 million shares [2].