Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 33.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.016 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend for 2023 is 46.6 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [2][3]. - The company experienced a decline in Q4 2023 revenue, attributed to inventory digestion before the peak season, but Q1 2024 showed a stable start with a revenue increase of 8.03% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 5%-10% for 2024, with an increased dividend payout ratio of 70% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 28.539 billion yuan, growing 8.82% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 3.950 billion yuan, increasing by 20.70% [2]. - The company reported a Q4 2023 revenue of 2.843 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of -188 million yuan, down 161.28% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2024, total revenue reached 16.255 billion yuan, up 8.03% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.055 billion yuan, an increase of 5.02% [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q4 2023 was 69.62%, while Q1 2024 saw a margin of 76.03%, indicating relative stability in profitability [3]. - The company reported a total cash collection of 22.218 billion yuan for 2023 and Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.05%, with a net operating cash flow of 6.637 billion yuan, up 10.49% [3]. Future Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 10.75 billion yuan and 11.84 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 11% and 15% from previous estimates [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.14 yuan for 2024, 7.86 yuan for 2025, and 8.59 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [3][4].

洋河股份：基本盘稳固，分红受益提升 洋河股份（002304.SZ）/食 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月1日 品饮料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级bl：e_买Tit入le（] 维持） [公Ta司bl盈e_利Fin预an测ce及1] 估值 市场价格：95.07元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 30,105 33,126 35,901 38,738 41,527 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 18.76% 10.04% 8.38% 7.90% 7.20% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 9,378 10,016 10,884 11,828 12,804 电话：021-20315138 增长率yoy% 24.91% 6.80% 8.67% 8.67% 8.25% 每股收益（元） 6.23 6.65 7.23 7.85 8.50 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 2.42 4.07 6.17 10.00 6.87 分析师：何长天 净资产收益率 19.75% 19.28% 19.76% ...

洋河股份：基本盘稳固，分红受益提升 洋河股份（002304.SZ）/食 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月1日 品饮料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级bl：e_买Tit入le（] 维持） [公Ta司bl盈e_利Fin预an测ce及1] 估值 市场价格：95.07元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 30,105 33,126 35,901 38,738 41,527 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 18.76% 10.04% 8.38% 7.90% 7.20% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 9,378 10,016 10,884 11,828 12,804 电话：021-20315138 增长率yoy% 24.91% 6.80% 8.67% 8.67% 8.25% 每股收益（元） 6.23 6.65 7.23 7.85 8.50 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 2.42 4.07 6.17 10.00 6.87 分析师：何长天 净资产收益率 19.75% 19.28% 19.76% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The company has achieved stable revenue growth, with a 2023 revenue of 33.126 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.016 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year [5]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 16.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.03%, and a net profit of 6.055 billion yuan, up 5.02% year-on-year. The revenue performance was slightly below expectations, and the structural upgrade has slowed down [5]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-10% in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio expected to increase to 70%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from high-end and ordinary liquor in 2023 was 28.539 billion yuan and 3.950 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.82% and 20.70% [6]. - The sales volume and price per ton in 2023 decreased by 14.93% and increased by 29.78%, respectively, mainly due to changes in the product structure of ordinary liquor [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.25%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 30.25% [8]. Market Competition - Revenue from the company's domestic market was 14.393 billion yuan, up 8.05% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 18.096 billion yuan, up 11.85% year-on-year. The slowdown in domestic growth is attributed to the high proportion of the Dream 6+ product, which has been significantly affected by intensified competition [7]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 11.1 billion yuan, 12.49 billion yuan, and 14.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.8%, 12.5%, and 12.9% [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.37 yuan, 8.29 yuan, and 9.36 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.0, 11.6, and 10.2 times [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Recommendation" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 33.13 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.02 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 16.26 billion yuan, growing 8.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving distributor quality due to intense competition in the domestic market. It is also expanding into county and township markets in provinces like Henan and Shandong, while targeting emerging markets for growth [5] - The company's high-end product segment is under pressure, with a 16.6% decline in sales volume in 2023, although the average price per ton increased by 29.5%. The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor was 28.54 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and 20.7% [5] - The company experienced a rise in expense ratios due to delayed digitalization costs, with a gross margin of 75.2% in 2023, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 30.2% and 37.3%, respectively [5] - The company has a high dividend yield, with cash dividends of 7.02 billion yuan in 2023, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.1% and a dividend yield of 4.9% based on the latest closing price [5] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 7.03 yuan, 7.51 yuan, and 8.23 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 14, 13, and 12 times [5][6] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 35.42 billion yuan, 38.14 billion yuan, and 41.30 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.93%, 7.67%, and 8.30% respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 10.59 billion yuan, 11.31 billion yuan, and 12.40 billion yuan, with profit growth rates of 5.72%, 6.79%, and 9.69% respectively [6][7]

公司报告 | 季报点评 洋河股份（002304） 证券研究报告 2024年04月 30日 投资评级 业绩稳健增长，分红率70%为亮点 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 95.07元 事件：23 年公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 331.26/100.16/98.43亿元（同比+10.04%/+6.80%/+6.10%）；23Q4公司营业 目标价格 元 收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 28.43/-1.88/-3.22 亿元（同比 -21.51%/-161.28%/-174.32%）；24Q1公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净 基本数据 利润分别为162.55/60.55/60.50亿元（同比+8.03%/+5.02%/+6.79%）。 A股总股本(百万股) 1,506.45 流通A股股本(百万股) 1,502.16 中高档酒持续增长，驱动整体结构上行。2023年公司实现白酒销售323.90 A股总市值(百万元) 143,217.73 亿元（同比+10.40%），其中中高档酒/普通酒收入285.39/39.50 亿元（同比 流通A股市值(百万元) 142, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 33.126 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.016 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.0% and 6.8% respectively. For Q1 2024, the revenue and net profit were 16.25 billion yuan and 6.06 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and 5.0% [6][7] - The company has seen double-digit revenue growth in 2023, with a total profit exceeding 10 billion yuan. The growth was driven by a strong performance in both mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments, with revenues of 28.539 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 8.82% and 20.7% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has a healthy cash flow performance, with a cash collection of 22.2 billion yuan in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13%. The dividend payout ratio was raised from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's value proposition [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 30.105 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.76%. The projected revenue for 2023 is 33.126 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.04% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 9.378 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.91%. The forecast for 2023 is 10.016 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.80% [6] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 6.65 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 14.42 [6][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 100.09 yuan, with a one-year low of 88.30 yuan and a high of 150.35 yuan. The market capitalization is approximately 150.78 billion yuan [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.84, 12.61, and 11.42 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][8]

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月30日 002304.SZ 洋河股份 买入 公司业绩短期承压，调整经营节奏蓄力长远发展 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 95.86 洋河股份公告2023年年报及2024年1季报。2023年公司实现营收331.3亿元，同比 增长10.0%，归母净利100.2亿元，同比增长6.8%，其中4Q23营收28.4亿元，同比 板块评级:强于大市 降21.5%，归母净利-1.9亿元，转亏。1Q24公司营收162.5亿元，同比增8.0%，归 母净利60.6亿元，同比增5.0%。2023年公司提高分红比率，短期业绩承压，调整经 本报告要点 营节奏蓄力长远发展，维持买入评级。  洋河股份2023年年报及2024年1季报业绩 支撑评级的要点 点评  4季度公司主动控货，调整产品结构，拉低全年营收增速，2023年公司营收增速 为10.0%,其中4Q23营收增速同比下滑21.5%。（1）分具体产品来看，2023年 股价表现 公司中高档产品实现营收285.4亿元，同比增8.8%，收入占比为87.8%，同比降 1.1pct。我们判断，受宏观环境影响，商务需求减弱，公司核心单品 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 106.80, compared to the last closing price of 100.09 [1][4]. Core Views - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, with notable growth in low-end liquor sales. The performance in Q1 2024 was satisfactory, achieving a revenue of 162.55 billion, up 8.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 60.55 billion, up 5.02% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-10% in 2024, focusing on deepening its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 331.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 100.16 billion, up 6.80% year-on-year. The Q4 2023 revenue was 28.43 billion, down 21.51% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.88 billion, down 161.28% year-on-year [1][4]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in 2023 was 285.39 billion and 39.50 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.82% and 20.70% [1][4]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2023 was 75.25%, with a slight increase in Q1 2024 to 76.03%. The net profit margin for 2023 was 30.25%, which decreased to 37.24% in Q1 2024 due to increased sales expenses [1][4]. - The company reported a historical high dividend payout of 70.2 billion in 2023, with a dividend rate of 70%, resulting in a current market capitalization corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.7% [1][4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside its home province, with revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets reaching 143.93 billion and 180.96 billion, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 8.05% and 11.85% [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased, with a net addition of 568 distributors in non-provincial areas, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels [1][4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 7% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 7%, 7%, and 6% for the same period [1][4]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 7.12, 7.61, and 8.05 for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 106.80, compared to the last closing price of 100.09 [1][3]. Core Views - The company has achieved a record high dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2023, indicating strong cash flow and shareholder returns [3]. - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, with notable growth in low-end liquor products, while overall performance in Q4 2023 was below expectations [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-10% in 2024, focusing on deepening its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 33.126 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 10.016 billion, up 6.80% [3][5]. - For Q1 2024, revenue reached 16.255 billion, reflecting an 8.03% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 6.055 billion, up 5.02% [3]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 75.25%, with a slight increase in Q1 2024 to 76.03% [3][5]. Product and Market Insights - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor segments generated revenues of 28.539 billion and 3.950 billion respectively in 2023, with growth rates of 8.82% and 20.70% [3]. - The company has increased the ex-factory price of its M6+ product by 20 yuan per bottle starting April 1, 2024, to support future growth [3]. - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets in 2023 was 14.393 billion and 18.096 billion respectively, with non-provincial revenue growing at a faster rate [3]. Expense and Profitability Analysis - Sales expenses increased significantly, leading to a slight pressure on net profit margins, which were 30.25% in 2023 and 37.24% in Q1 2024 [3]. - The company’s advertising and promotional expenses reached 3.461 billion in 2023, a 43.34% increase year-on-year, reflecting intensified competition [3]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 30.25%, slightly down from the previous year due to increased expenses [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 7%, 7%, and 6% [3][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 7.12, 7.61, and 8.05 respectively [5].